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China Oil Demand to Peak in 2040


Oil demand from China’s transportation sector will peak in 2030 and flatten thereafter, mainly due to falling gasoline demand for passenger vehicles that become more efficient and increasingly electricity-driven, the International Energy Agency said in its latest World Energy Outlook report on Tuesday. The flattening of China’s oil demand growth reflects its fundamental change from […]

Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?

Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight? thumbnail

The International Energy Agency made headlines Monday when it declared in its World Energy Outlook 2017 that the U.S. could be a net exporter of oil within a decade. The IEA also projected that the U.S. is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades. Is that a realistic assessment? […]

Growth in Electric Vehicles Won’t Dent Oil Demand Much


Amid an anticipated increase in electric vehicles during the next 20 years, the world’s appetite for oil is still expected to wane just a bit, as demand for transportation including petrochemicals continues, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. An estimated 50 million vehicles will be in operation by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, versus […]

6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

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  We haven’t reached peak oil consumption globally, also known as peak demand. We are likely to reach it globally by 2050, but it’s unlikely to occur before 2030 at the very earliest. There are six major factors which make defining exactly when it will occur very difficult. I haven’t seen any modelled analysis (including […]

DIY Disaster Relief


In areas where people have been abandoned by state and NGO relief efforts, decentralized networks of volunteers have popped up to coordinate food and supply distribution, arrange for temporary housing and help communities rebuild local infrastructure. Watch the full documentary for free –…

Will China Bring an Energy-Debt Crisis?


It is easy for those of us in the West to overlook how important China has become to the world economy, and also the limits it is reaching. The two big areas in which China seems to be reaching limits are energy production and debt. Reaching either of these limits could eventually cause a collapse. […]

Crude: The Saudi shake down

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It seems the move by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to arrest members of the royal family and their business associates in a corruption crackdown is proving to be wildly popular among the Saudis young population. Yet, at the same time, it is adding a new sense of an oil price risk against […]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye thumbnail

It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era. The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile. Now we are approaching the end of […]

The Future Of Crude Oil


Summary In the long term Electric Vehicles will impact the price of crude oil but it’s unlikely to hit rock bottom as is popularly believed. Estimates of the time required for Electric vehicles to achieve cost parity with traditional cars are probably underestimated. In the short term a tug of war between Saudi Arabia and […]

Saudi Arabia is building a $7 billion city on the sand — here’s what it will look like

Saudi Arabia is building a $7 billion city on the sand — here’s what it will look like thumbnail

Knowledge Economic City Company Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter, but falling oil prices have hurt the economy and made it harder for the country to pay its oil workers. To give its economy a boost, the Saudi Arabian government has been working in recent years to transform hundreds of square miles of desert into new cities that create jobs and […]

Oil Price Expected to Remain Steady Despite Shock Arrests in Saudi Arabia


The market for oil, Saudi Arabia’s most lucrative export, is unlikely to be affected by the arrest of dozens of former Saudi state officials and at least 11 Saudi princes in an anti-corruption drive, financial analysts have said. On Sunday, it was reported that 11 Saudi princes, four incumbent ministers of the Saudi government and dozens […]

‘End of oil’ narratives are misleading — global oil demand will remain at 90 million bpd


The world isn’t reinventing the wheel. But we’re changing how it turns, who it carries and where it’s going. Over the next few decades we’ll be plugging in more cars, hailing and sharing them, and reminiscing about the good ol’ days of the steering wheel. To be sure, these looming mobility changes are all exciting […]

Running Out Of Room

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The idea of an ‘industrial economy’ is an extremely recent human invention. And we’ve staked quite a lot on its continuation. But it faces a massive predicament: It’s running out of resources. When talking about the “economy”, we’re really referring to the flow of goods and services — which are themselves entirely dependent on energy. No […]

Saltwater desalination for an increasingly dry world

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Right now, the city of Cape Town is caught in the aftermath of its third successive winter without significant rainfall. In response to the water scarcity crisis, a fleet of saltwater desalination plants will be installed around the city within a few weeks to draw drinkable water from the sea. The Mother City’s plight is […]

A Seneca Cliff for the Web as we know it?

A Seneca Cliff for the Web as we know it? thumbnail

  We can’t ignore the evidence any longer. The “Web”, intended as a constellation of independent information providers is dying. It is going through a Seneca Cliff of its own, being replaced by a “Trinet”, controlled by the three giant companies, Google, Amazon, and Facebook. I have been noticing it with the stats for “Cassandra’s […]

China and the New Energy Economy


There is an increasingly inescapable sense that an energy transition of enormous proportions is taking place. The number of ‘bans’ announced on Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles is growing, even if governments are placing them relatively far out on the political horizon. More and more car manufacturers are taking note and shifting R&D spending into […]

WB Concerned Over Global Debt

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The World Bank has warned that unless countries across the globe address issues relating to borrowing, the world could be heading for another financial crisis. In its World Economic Outlook report for October 2017, it noted that discouraging further debt build-up through measures that encourage business investment and discourage debt financing will help curb financial […]

Inflection Point: Oil’s Inevitable Rise


Summary In this series of articles, we’re summarizing the global oil situation as of Q3 and looking ahead. The continuing stock draws in crude and petroleum products are simply unsustainable and will lead to an oil price correction. Inventory declines have accelerated, and will continue unabated given increase in demand and underproduction. We recently provided […]

Heinberg: Puerto Rico is our Future

Heinberg: Puerto Rico is our Future thumbnail

My hometown of Santa Rosa, California, and surrounding communities were decimated by wildfires during the week of October 9, with entire neighborhoods completely erased. If you want a sense of how bad the fires were, watch this 11-minute video clip put together by three Berkeley firefighters. For a more personal view of the consequences of […]

Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019


The National Energy Board now projects fossil fuel use in Canada will peak in 2019, a major downward revision of similar estimates it has made annually for the past decade. It’s the first time in the 11-year history of the NEB’s annual reports on the topic that a peak in fossil fuel demand has been included […]

Oil Just Isn’t That Important to Petrocurrencies Right Now


Foreign inflows trump crude as biggest driver of ruble Latin American currencies move in opposite direction to oil The currencies of some of the world’s biggest crude exporters are breaking their historic relationship with the oil price. The Canadian dollar has weakened, the Norwegian krone is little changed and the Russian ruble has strengthened just […]

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

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I was recently asked to give a talk called, “The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.” In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis? As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting enough taxes) are issues […]

Oil demand likely to peak by 2030

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As electric vehicles are to increase their popularity, particularly beyond 2025, the world petrol demand is to peak within 13 years, says a report by UK-based analysis firm Wood Mackenzie. The analysis estimates that the demand for oil in developed countries will reduce by about four million barrels per day by 2035. But, on the other hand, […]

Just How Big Is Oil’s Invisible Friend?


The world’s oil majors, beset by intimations of demand for their favorite product leveling off, seek comfort from an invisible friend. Compared to oil and coal, natural gas looks less fossilized. Long-term outlooks routinely show demand rising while it flattens for oil and falls for coal. This makes sense: Gas is versatile, useful both as […]

China’s Crude Oil Buying Spree Looks Set To Continue


China has built its crude oil stockpiles at a record pace in 2017 and while its purchases could tail off towards the year-end, inventories could hit the billion-barrel mark in six months, the International Energy Agency said. China has spent around $24 billion on building its crude reserves since 2015, at an average of $50 […]

Oil: We still need (plenty) more supply


Analysts at HSBC suggest that despite a likely peak in LDV demand in 2025-30, the peak in total oil demand still looks much further off  and they see a looming shortage of supply as a more pressing issue, pointing to upside in prices from current levels. Key Quotes “The rate of climate policy progress and […]

This Key Data Points At Strong U.S. Oil Demand


Gasoline prices haven’t gone up high enough in the U.S. to have any real impact on car buyers choosing more fuel-efficient vehicles. A university study reports that fuel economy in new vehicle purchases is staying flat this year. Average fuel economy (window-sticker value) of new vehicles sold in the U.S. was 25.3 mpg in September, […]

Feast Or Famine? Oil Market In 2018


“Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: and there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten.” In the Bible, Joseph was interpreting Pharaoh’s dream of seven fat and seven thin cows, but he might have been talking about the oil […]

A New Era for Aviation?

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  The pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and the prospect of a world running largely on renewable electricity has sent research and development teams in every sector back to their respective drawing boards to look at options that might exist for electrification. Perhaps the most challenging sector is aviation, where liquid hydrocarbon fuels are […]

OPEC should go for ‘responsible pricing’, says oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan

OPEC should go for ‘responsible pricing’, says oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan thumbnail

India today pressed oil cartel OPEC to adopt “responsible pricing” for oil and consider the world’s third-biggest oil consumer as its preferred sales destination. Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan met OPEC Secretary General Sanusi Mohammad Barkindo to discuss “the current scenario of oil and gas industry of the world and exchanged notes on the recent developments”, […]

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