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USA EIA Cuts 2023 Oil Price Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecasts for 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released this week.

According to the March STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $82.95 per barrel and the WTI spot price averaging $77.10 per barrel this year. In its previous STEO, which was released at the start of February, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $83.63 per barrel and that the WTI spot price would average $77.84 per barrel in 2023.

The March and February STEOs had identical oil price forecasts for 2024. They both saw the Brent spot price averaging $77.57 per barrel and the WTI spot price averaging $71.57 per barrel next year.

“We expect that the Brent crude oil spot price will fall from an average of $84 per barrel in the second quarter of 2023 to $81 per barrel in 4Q23, and then average $78 per barrel in 2024,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO.

“Although we expect global oil inventories will build throughout the forecast period, we expect that high demand for crude oil from refineries because of elevated refining margins will limit downward pressure on crude oil prices through 2Q23 as refiners maintain high levels of crude oil inputs to maximize distillate fuel production,” the EIA added in the STEO.

“Russia was a key supplier of distillate fuel to Europe, and changes in distillate trade flows as Europe reduced imports of distillate from Russia in recent months have kept distillate fuel margins well-above five-year averages. However, we forecast that increasing global oil inventories will contribute to falling crude oil prices beginning in 3Q23,” the EIA continued.

In its latest STEO, the EIA noted that it expects global oil and liquid fuels production will average 101.5 million barrels per day in 2023, which the organization outlined would be up 1.6 million barrels per day from 2022. The EIA stated in its March STEO that it expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2023 from 2022. The organization is currently projecting total world consumption of 100.90 million barrels per day in 2023.

“China is the main driver of growth in 2023 as the country shifts away from its zero-Covid policy, a shift that will increase travel,” the EIA said in the STEO.

Fitch Solutions, Standard Chartered, Current Price

In an oil price outlook report sent to Rigzone this week, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research lowered its Brent oil price forecast for 2023. According to the company’s report, Fitch Solutions now sees Brent averaging $90 per barrel this year. The company’s previous oil price outlook report, which was sent to Rigzone at the start of February, showed that the company expected Brent to average $95 per barrel in 2023.

Both Fitch Solutions reports also included a Bloomberg Consensus, which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to. The Bloomberg Consensus in the latest report saw Brent coming in at $88 per barrel this year, while the Bloomberg Consensus in the previous report saw Brent at $87.3 per barrel in 2023.

In a separate report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered maintained its Brent oil price forecast of $91 per barrel for this year. Standard Chartered reports sent to Rigzone in February and January this year showed the same Brent price projection for 2023.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $82.52 per barrel and the price of WTI stood at $76.51 per barrel.

The 2023 Brent peak close, so far, was seen on January 23, at $88.19 per barrel, while the commodity’s lowest 2023 close, so far, was seen on January 4, at $77.84 per barrel. The 2023 WTI peak close, so far, was on January 26, at $87.47 per barrel, and the lowest 2023 WTI close, so far, was seen on January 4, at $72.84 per barrel.


60 Comments on "USA EIA Cuts 2023 Oil Price Forecasts"

  1. eee on Thu, 16th Mar 2023 5:46 am 

    Europe has created international globalism and international system of laws. They created globalism and international law systems even before the US was born and colonized. This is where the investigation has to start:Europe UK. It is time to isolate both and see how they will react.

  2. makati1 on Thu, 16th Mar 2023 5:56 pm 

    BTW Unlucky, you do know that the US is just using your money to upgrade their port for nuclear subs with nukes so they don’t have to? The subs you “bought” will never happen. 2040s for the first delivery? Hahahaha! Odds are good that China will own Australia or there will be no Australia by then.

  3. makati1 on Thu, 16th Mar 2023 6:00 pm 

    I’m reposting this so a certain person does not miss it.

    Unlucky, are you really so out of reality that you post BS like this: “mak contradicts his own argument…again

    “Climate BS will be the end of the West.There is no way in hell that fossil fuels will not be used until there is none available.”

    If by BS you mean the ever worsening consequences of runaway climate change, then I would agree with you 100%

    It’s very efficient – most stupid people need at least 5-6 sentences to contradict themselves.

    Mak are you afraid of that little girl Greta too? Most deniers get hyper triggered every time she speaks.”

    1. Climate BS is just that, BS. Nothing is ever proved, just propaganda to scare the fools. Of course climate is changing. It always has, but it is not caused by humans.
    2. Greta is a stupid, mentally deficient, girl who has been used by the pushers of climate BS for $$$.

    But then, what do you expect from a thoroughly brainwashed Western biased kangaroo hugger who uses as proof, Amerikan MSM propaganda sites.? No real proof of anything he spews from both ends. Too much Western MSM propaganda that has mushed whatever intelligence he may have once had. Typical of why the West is dying, including Australia. Too much BS. Not enough critical thinking.
    You sound a lot like Davy in Missouri. He was always trying to put me down and failed. All my predictions came true. Now he is gone. Good riddance! One less idiot.

  4. FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 16th Mar 2023 8:44 pm 

    The only member of the European Parliament with a pair of balls is the member with no member:Clare Daly

    “The explosion of the #NordStream pipelines is one of the biggest acts of economic sabotage carried out on the #EU. So it is very, very strange that there is no appetite for investigation no appetite for accountability, or restitution, nearly no discussion of it here at all!”

    All the rest are spinless cowards.

    BTW America is the worlds most destructive eco terrorist.

    Report: Nord Stream explosions led to ‘ecological catastrophe’

    “The sabotage and explosions that destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines did not only sour relations between Russian and the West, but they also set off a chain reaction in the marine environment that risks giving endangered species like cod and various porpoises the final push over the edge, according to a recent study.

    “It is deeply worrying for the Baltic Sea because the report shows that the explosion worsens the state of a sea area that is already in a deeply serious and critical state,” Maria Reumert Gjerding, President of the Danish Society for Nature Conservation, told DR news.

    Bo Øksnebjerg, Secretary General of the World Wildlife Fund, shared this view.

    “We’ve got another peg in the Baltic’s coffin. The report shows that a lot of damage has been done and a lot of toxic substances have come up into the water column,” he said. The explosions and the ensuing water jets stirred up over 250,000 tonnes of contaminated seabed containing toxic substances.

    These include TBT, a substance that destroys the reproductive capacity of fish, according to Hans Sanderson, senior researcher at the Department of Environmental Sciences at Aarhus University, who led the team behind the report. The problem is that the marine environment of the Baltic Sea is already struggling to survive.

    According to the report, the explosions have increased pollution in the Bornholm Deep, where cod breed and the northernmost blast took place 40 kilometres from the banks in Swedish waters where endangered porpoises breed.”

  5. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 17th Mar 2023 10:17 am 

    Question: What is a socialist?

    Answer: A libertarian tech bro who had money in Silicon Valley Bank.

  6. makati1 on Fri, 17th Mar 2023 4:33 pm 

    Unlucky, you said: “no one is listening to you now mak, you’re a eeeeeesupertardtroLL, go change your undies and those of your LBFM.”

    Obviously you are. Your denials prove nothing. You are just another Western fool following your megalomaniac leaders to hell. Enjoy the trip! It is going to very painful, I think. Anyone who is a “friend” of the US is doomed to suffer for their greed and your stupidity. Ref: Afghanistan and now the Ukraine. They even threw the EU under the bus.

    Meanwhile, on an island much nicer than the deserts on Kangaland, I am enjoying a long (15 years so far) and relaxing retirement. If/when the SHTF, I am prepared to continue to enjoy that retirement. I can live without the internet, FFs, money and even electric. Extensive library, a farm for food, three meters of rain annually, and locals who are friends, help if I need it, and protection from people like you. What more could I want or need? As for your future…?

  7. makati1 on Fri, 17th Mar 2023 5:20 pm 

    Unlucky, you might want to take time out from your unbusy schedule to read this…

    “No mealy-mouthed talk of ‘stabilisation’ in our China relationship or resort to softer or polite language will disguise from the Chinese the extent and intent of our commitment to United States’s strategic hegemony in East Asia with all its deadly portents.”

    Keep in mind: Afghanistan and the Ukraine as recent examples of Amerikan friendship and support.

  8. makati1 on Fri, 17th Mar 2023 5:50 pm

    “Whether in Europe or the Asia-Pacific, Uncle Sam is ready to screw over his ‘friends’ for profit”

    Take note, Unlucky.

  9. even though most of the west are full of lovers of supremacist muzzies this is not enough because a bagged and head diapered kate middleton was denied handshake with supremacist muzzies confirming her second status as a woman on Sat, 18th Mar 2023 5:36 pm 

    the number of elite whitey (((supertards))) who MUZZ-19 is grat said Its gona be a holocaustianity

    supertards please change ur undies after 5 weeks

    please feel at ease among friends
    we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here

  10. on Tue, 16th Jan 2024 7:26 am 

    Wenn Sie mit dem von unserer Agentur erworbenen Führerschein fahren, müssen Sie diesen bei Polizeikontrollen frei vorzeigen können, da die von der Polizei in einem Datenauslesecomputer überprüften Angaben zum Führerschein zeigen, dass er echt und in der staatlichen Datenbank registriert ist.

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