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US oil production will keep booming in 2024, setting up a possible showdown with Saudi Arabia

US oil production is having a blockbuster year, and 2024 could see fresh highs, putting more pressure on Saudi Arabia to regain control over crude prices.

Analysts at Rapidan Energy estimate US output will average 13.3 million barrels a day next year, up from 2023’s average of 13 million and above the current all-time record of 13.2 million reached in September.

That comes as US oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron recently announced increases in their capital expenditure budgets for 2024 as they pour more money into the Permian Basin, the epicenter of the shale boom.

The record supply of US oil has coincided with output cuts from OPEC+ nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have been struggling to lift oil prices.

That’s got some experts warning that the Saudis may reverse course and instead flush the oil market with a flood of supply like they did in 2014, when Riyadh sought to drive out US producers from the market by sinking prices and making output less profitable.

Other analysts have echoed that view, as Doug King, chief investment officer of the Merchant Commodity Fund, told Bloomberg that “OPEC’s strategy looks fragile” and a more “logical plan” would include unleashing a flood of supply to depress prices again.

For its part, Rapidan Energy doesn’t see it that way.

“Currently we do not expect OPEC+ will flood the market to stifle US shale growth,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, wrote in an email to the Business Insider. “Ministers remain optimistic that supply-demand fundamentals will be together than many traders expect, helping to support prices.”

Even so, the roaring growth in US oil is undeniable. In addition to their increased spending, Exxon and Chevron have announced mega-mergers this year to buy top shale producers.

“The Permian is going to be the engine of growth not only this year, but in years going forward,” Hunter Kornfeind, an oil analyst at Rapidan, said in an interview.

Shifting tides

While the amped budgets of the energy behemoths highlight the surge in US oil production, they are also a sign of the shifting landscape in the American energy industry.

Growth is not as high compared to prior cycles, when oil companies would reinvest about 100% of the cash they generated into capital expenditures to drill more oil, Kornfeind said. Now, the amount they spend is about 40% to 50% of the money they make.

That reflects a change in the priorities of US oil companies as they focus more on shareholders returns through buybacks and dividends.

Meanwhile, US shale production — which Saudi Arabia targeted in 2014 — isn’t the main risk facing OPEC over the longer term, McNally said.

“OPEC is more concerned about inadequate investment in supply than too much shale,” he said. “It’s important to note that OPEC does not share the IEA’s peak demand view and therefore thinks shale oil growth is less of a threat.”

market insider

31 Comments on "US oil production will keep booming in 2024, setting up a possible showdown with Saudi Arabia"

  1. Dredd on Thu, 14th Dec 2023 8:38 am 

    Elections seem to have no impact on Oil-Qaeda (Awe Topsy – 8).

    Or several other existential matters …

  2. Theedrich on Wed, 20th Dec 2023 7:17 pm 

    Putin’s description of American duplicity and vicious antagonism toward Russia, using Ukraine as proxy, is absolutely correct.  America has disintegrated morally and ethically, and turned into a global monster.  The United States, having had great success everywhere by assassinating rulers and political individuals in many countries, believed that it could destroy Russia and plunder Russia’s natural resources, subjecting it into a slave nation.  Washington’s manipulation of the German traitor, Angel Merkel (married surname actually Sauer), is the foremost example of U.S. treachery.

    But of course, America has been insanely criminal since World War I, at the end of which it affirmed the sadistic Versaille Treaty which devastated and impoverished Germany.  That crime remains the playbook whose plan the Washington elites would like to implement to destroy Russia and achieve American tyranny over the enter planet.

    Sinister American politicoes, of course, do not recognize history, except for their own perversion of it.  The American masses are effectively cultureless and swallow everything their propagandists shove down their throats — a great advantage for the garbage which rules us.

    But as for the future, the proper path would be for Ukraine to be completely partitioned, Lvov (Львов) (German Limberg) should be returned to Poland and Ukraine’s other western portions returned to those eastern European lands which formerly owned them.  All this, of course, will have to await the completion of the self-destruction of America, now occurring under the aegis of the serpentine Democrat Party and its many tentacles.

    𝖁𝖊𝖗𝖎𝖙𝖆𝖘 𝖑𝖎𝖇𝖊𝖗𝖆𝖇𝖎𝖙 𝖛𝖔𝖘.

  3. Meister on Thu, 21st Dec 2023 8:05 am 

    America 2024, coming to your front door:

    Blinken warns that the US has not much more to give to Ukraine.

    Fronts in Eastern Ukraine are near collapse.

    Scholz his Ampel coalition is nearly dead:

    “Putin may be invited to France in 2024, says Macron”

    The US empire is nearly over and everybody knows it.

  4. eee on Thu, 28th Dec 2023 10:47 pm 

    The invisible world is going to destroy the world and kill everyone except the real chosen ones. I understand why they want to kill everyone on earth now. I understand now why the mathematics of this reality are locked and cannot be access from earth. Earth is an execution chamber. You are here to die.

  5. eee on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 1:53 am 

    Listen to this fucking loser talking when he should learn to shut his mouth. This is why the mathematic of earth reality are locked and will stay locked until everyone is dead on earth. Nobody care about the opinion of a loser that cannot do advance maths

  6. eee on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 2:07 am 

    I was under divine protection since my birth. It took me a while to figure it out, I had to look back at my past. I am not like you, I was created by the invisible world.

  7. eee on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 6:42 am 

    Go look at the flag of Québec. There is four fleurs of lys on it, that is a symbol of nobility and royalty. I told you the earth belong to me, and it is fine to order the genocide of the Jewish race. I own the Jewish race, I can do what I want with them including exterminating their race.

  8. eee on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 6:44 am 

    After the extermination of the Jewish race, I will kill all the Whites Europeans living in Europe.

  9. eee on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 6:48 am 

    I will kill all the Europeans when I am done with the Jews.

    Europe Centrale : plusieurs pas touchés par d’importantes inondations

  10. eee on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 7:03 am 

    If I was King of North America, I will help Russia destroy complexly Europe including UK. Nothing would be left of Europe.eee

  11. eee on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 7:49 am 

    By the way we don’t need the Whites Europeans to keep alive the White race. There is no real man in Europe, only gay man. You can find better quality Whites people in Australia, Russian, New Zealand and South Africa. It is time to destroy Europe and the Jewish race.

  12. WhereAreMyGuns on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 10:51 pm 

    This is a old railroad instructions corporate videos. Big corporations run this planet. Politicians are just a front to pacify and motivate the population to work for big corporations. There are already conditioning humans in the video to be good slaves. They push for working team, push to identify ourself as a company member and friends. They have been training humans to be good slaves for a long time.

  13. WhereAreMyGuns on Fri, 29th Dec 2023 11:27 pm 

    Everything start with Europe. Europe is in the business of enslaving the whole world. United nations head quater is in Geneva Switzerland MCS maritime containers shipping company is in Switzerland, we often see their container on US rail road like BNSF. This will only be resolve by blood and destruction and dead of the people living in Europe and the dead and public execution of corporate CEO through Canada and the US.

  14. WhereAreMyFuckingGuns on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 5:07 am 

    Apparently South Africa and Australia would be happy to work with me if I were to become the King of North America. We could work together at killing all the Jews of world and all the Europeans living in Europe

  15. WhereAreMyGuns on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 5:13 am 

    Apparently some Africa nations are going to dumb the Africa French Francs that was used by France and Europe to steal natural resources from Africans. I guess Europe is on its way out and losing influence on the international scene. Fuck Europe and fuck the Jews

  16. WhereAreMyGuns on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 5:19 am 

    There is not enough natural resources for the whole planet, it is time to cut out of international trade Europe, UK and Israel to save natural resources for the rest of the world

  17. WhereAreMyGuns on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 5:35 am 

    When you go against me, you enter in war directly with me and the invisible world. Think about that next time.

  18. KillCEOMakeMeFeelGOOD on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 6:30 pm 

    I am coming for all of you corporate CEO. I am coming for the CEO of Google. I want to know why google created Android for phone and gave it for free. It seems to me that Google created android to enslave people. I will come for the CEO of google. If I don’t his answers I will kill him on spot.

  19. KillingCEOIsAGoodThing on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 8:01 pm 

    You go from a steam train to a diesel train. They do this to justify the theory of evolution and hide the fact that we are slave to them. They produce video like this to convince you that the theory of evolution is real. We never invented anything. They transfert their technologies and knowledge to us. Notice how they explain to you the technical evolution of train propulsion from steam to diesel. They do this to convince people that the theory of evolution is real and the historical past is real. They gave us a false so you believed in the theory of evolution so you dont see that you are slaves. They also introduce you to the concept of big corporation as needed to move forward and teach you to not question big corporation decisions

  20. KillSamsungCEO on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 8:27 pm 

    I believed they try to destroy the Whites race with the Jews, diversity, inclusion, gay agenda because only the White are intelligent enough to fight them and win against them. I think this is why they are trying to destroy Whites nations but not China, Japan, Thailand.

  21. IneedToPiss on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 9:43 pm 

    They said that train companies had their own machining shop. They came with their tech to colonized earth. Just like that out of nowhere, ability to machine steel with a lathe or milling machine appear like that magically.

    We are a slave planet and we are producing food, natural resources and manufactured goods for them.

  22. eee on Sat, 30th Dec 2023 10:01 pm 

    If you install a King, he can go directly to Google and Torture the CEO of google to get real answers. You will not solve anything by keeping this current political system alive. You need a King with total power including exécution, torture, taking over big corporation and so on.

  23. eee on Thu, 4th Jan 2024 4:51 pm 

    10 countries with the highest standard of living
    1. Switzerland: 0.96
    2. Norway: 0.96
    3. Iceland Flag Iceland: 0.96
    4. Hong Kong: 0.95
    5. Australia: 0.95
    6. Denmark: 0.95
    7. Sweden: 0.95
    8. Ireland: 0.94
    9. Germany: 0.94
    10. Netherlands: 0.94

    Almost all European nations. I have talked about that. Europe is in the business of dominating and controlling the world to steal natural ressources from the rest of the world for themself. What more proof do you need.

    Look at how the French or Europe fuck over the negro with the African French franc.

  24. eee on Fri, 5th Jan 2024 12:47 am 

    You can try to manipulate me with shit like this, but at the end of it, earth will be destroyed. Earth has no value to me and the people living on earth don’t matter me. Earth is just entertainment for me.

  25. eeee on Fri, 5th Jan 2024 12:49 am 

    People of earth are not leaving earth except one or two exceptions. Does not matter what you do and what kind of videos you put on YouTube, no help will come for planet earth, only total destruction.

  26. eee on Fri, 5th Jan 2024 12:59 am 

    I will not come to the rescue of Québec, I will not come to the rescue of Canada, I will not come to the rescue of the US, I will not come to the rescue of the world. Earth will be destroyed plain and simple. Earth and its people don’t matter to me.

  27. eee on Fri, 5th Jan 2024 1:02 am 

    You are using me with your youtube videos, I am using the world for my own entertainment.
    4 years without salary show what kind of people you are deep inside. You are untrust worthy and manipulative.

  28. eee on Fri, 5th Jan 2024 1:06 am 

    I will use earth and the people of earth for my personal gain, I will do to you what you did to me.

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