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Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 05 Sep 2023, 17:43:33

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The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 05 Sep 2023, 17:57:51

Suck it up old Fool!

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Oil Soars To New 2023 High After Saudis, Russia Surprise With Extended Production Cut


... moments ago oil exploded higher after first Saudi Arabia and moments later Russia surprised markets by announcing that the recently implemented production cuts would be extended through year-end, well beyond the 1 month that was widely expected by the market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-s ... uction-cut

Sounds like a coordinated effort to me, a cartel in action, the BRICS-saudi cartel, There is an old threadbare saying repeated over and over on the web, but I thinks it's appropriate here.

"And so it begins"

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The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Pops » Thu 07 Dec 2023, 18:04:24

Matt has some new posts re the Gaza war, he gives good chart too

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ME oil supply situation as Gaza war brings world into unknown territory (part 1)[

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 10 Dec 2023, 10:35:49

I don't know if even the major players over there know what's going on. Iranian backed Houthi rebels were at war with Saudi Arabia for the last 7 years, now that's subsided and they are firing missiles at Israel? Saudi Arabia was all set to negotiate a trade deal with the Israelis and week before the meetings the Hamas Shoots itself in both legs by crossing the border and murdering hundreds of Israeli civilians? I mean that, by any standard, is a gross act of terrorism. Why not just focus on the military bases? The attacked one successfully, they could have made their point (whatever that is) and then crawled back into their tunnels but instead they gave the Israelis sanction to turn their state into a mass graveyard. None of it makes any sense?

Now the Israelis will take all the oil and gas off the coast of Gaza for themselves. Strange people those Arabs... One thing is certain though, the age of relative peace on Earth is gone. The Big Empire shift from West to East is on the way, with big wars to accompany that as always.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Pops » Fri 15 Dec 2023, 14:05:41

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Dec 2023, 23:49:26



I heard that interview on the Nate Hagens podcast.....it's really good.

I'll just summarize it here----Art Berman thinks that fracking in the USA can't continue to grow production for much longer, and he predicts peak oil will happen in the next five years or so, which agrees with the prediction I made four years ago that peak oil will happen in the 2020s.

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 17 Dec 2023, 15:31:36

Plantagenet wrote: fracking in the USA can't continue to grow production for much longer,


what about the rest of the world?
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2023, 19:52:49

mousepad wrote:
Plantagenet wrote: fracking in the USA can't continue to grow production for much longer,


what about the rest of the world?


If you listen to the Art Berman interview in the Nate Hagen podcast in the link above, he says large scale fracking and production of shale oil outside of the US is unlikely to ever take off like it did in the US because other countries lack the kind of aggressive small oil companies that produced the shale oil rush in the USA.

Personally, I think there will be some shale oil fracking done outside of the USA, but not enough to prevent oil production from peaking in the 2020s.

How about you??? Do you think fracking will take off outside of the USA??

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Shale oil basins of the world.....

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 17 Dec 2023, 20:10:45

Plantagenet wrote:How about you??? Do you think fracking will take off outside of the USA??


Thanks for asking, unfortunately I don't have much idea about the oil industry.
However once prices at the pump climb higher and higher I would imagine that this will spur fracking in the unlikeliest of places. Or said differently. Why would the ragheads and Russians frack if they can get more than enough conventional oil for practically free?
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 17 Dec 2023, 21:06:04

I don't think physics change per region.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Jan 2024, 15:16:18

"2025 Is When The World Will Be Short Of Oil": Occidental CEO Warns Oil Supply Crunch Begins Next Year

The world would find itself short of oil from 2025 onwards as exploration for longer-producing crude reserves is set to lag demand growth, Vicki Hollub, chief executive of Occidental Petroleum, said at the Davos forum on Tuesday. For most of the second half of the 20th century, oil companies were finding more crude than global consumption, around five times the demand volumes, Hollub said, as carried by Reuters.

The ratio of discovered resources versus demand has dropped in recent decades and is now at around 25%. “In the near term, the markets are not balanced; supply, demand is not balanced,” Oxy’s CEO said. “2025 and beyond is when the world is going to be short of oil.” According to the executive, the oil market will find itself moving from an oversupply in the near term to a long period of supply shortages.

Oil industry executives have been warning that new resources, new investments, and new supply will be needed just to maintain the current supply levels as older fields mature.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/O ... -2025.html
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 31 Jan 2024, 20:18:52

“Energy cannibalism”

Basically it is the trend of using more and more energy to extract energy. Whether the energy being used is diesel refined from conventional oil to facilitate the drilling and extraction of light shale oil, or it's using coal or gas fired electricity to pump oil out of, or seawater into, an old conventional oil field.

It's a simple fact that the net energy to society from oil drilling has been in decline, basically since the inception of oil wells. I mean as soon as they started to fill wooden barrels with oil from the gushers 100 years ago and ship them across country using coal fired trains the rot was setting in. Now of course the rot back then wasn't at all bad for society, oil became available for mass usage for the first time. But it doesn't change the fact that energy was consumed to take the energy away from the field and process it now does it.

Now today the energy consumed simply to get the oil out of the ground is phenomenal. How much energy is consumed to access a deepwater field and bring the oil to shore? How much to drill the plethora of horizontal shale wells and fill them with sand and chemicals? This is why looking at touted oil production figures and "the peak" of oil is actually a misleading exercise. It made sense in the 1990's when Colin Campbell first put forward the overall concept of peak oil as coming in 2007, but the cannibalism since his day has muddied the waters. And you can't see through muddy water, it's opaque.

2025: A Civilizational Tipping Point

In the past couple of posts I already hinted at how the US shale boom will soon come to an end, and also mentioned the net energy predicament besetting the petroleum and mining industry. The process of replacing high yield, low energy cost fields with ever costlier ones is a well known “secret” of the industry, but nary a single soul talks about it outside geologist circles. You see, it’s not that we will run out of oil from one day to another, catapulting our entire society into the dark ages ahead, but that oil extraction will return ever less net energy over time… To the point of diminishing returns, resulting in a relentless economic contraction, making any transition to any other energy source impossible. The Journal of Petroleum Technology, the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ flagship magazine has published an article in 2023 saying just that:
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“Energy necessary for the production of oil liquids is growing at an exponential rate, representing 15.5% of the energy production of oil liquids today and projected to reach a proportion equivalent to half of the gross energy output by 2050 (Delannoy et al. 2021).

When the energy required for the extraction and production of these liquids is taken into account, the net-energy peak is expected to occur in 2025 at a level of 400 PJ/d [1]. In the foreseeable future, the energy needed to produce oil liquids could approach unsustainable levels, a phenomenon called “energy cannibalism.”

The concept of energy cannibalism is becoming increasingly relevant, as mounting energy use in oil production means the very resources needed for the transition to renewable energy may be constrained, particularly when viewed from a net-energy perspective and in terms of economic growth.”

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Peak net energy means that no matter how hard we try to replace our declining easy-to-tap traditional oil reserves with tar sands, or ultra-deep wells drilled into the seafloor, beyond a certain point we will no longer be able to increase the amount of oil available for other uses (like manufacturing, transport, mining, agriculture, etc.). “Energy cannibalism” does not stop at the peak though: it will continue to take ever more energy to maintain oil extraction as existing fields “mature”. Operating drilling equipment, pumping seawater or CO2 into ageing wells to uphold production, delivering sand used in re-fracking existing wells etc. will continue take up an ever larger portion of the oil produced — as well as other forms of energy — leaving less and less for the rest of the economy (2). Is it any wonder then that oil companies have opted to pay back their investors instead of drilling new wells, and called it a day?
Article continues: https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/ ... um=reader2

So 2025 for a net energy peak, but bear in mind that even though more oil product has been made available to society, the relative cost of it has increased so much since the 2008 peak of conventional oil that the lifestyle of the average "consumer" on the planet has clearly declined. Take away the oil 'consumers' have borrowed from the future (debt) and the situation is far worse.

So next year it will be worse, and the year after worse still. It's like were all on a diet of rabbit and vegetables but the rabbits are feeding in the vegetable patch. As the number of rabbits grow and grow to meet our growing demand the vegetable patch gets smaller and smaller. Eventually we'll be on a rabbit only diet and that my friends leads to what's known as rabbit starvation.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 24 Jul 2024, 18:45:10

2024
World oil demand continues to decelerate, with 2Q24 growth easing to 710 kb/d year-on-year – the slowest quarterly increase since 4Q22. Chinese consumption contracted, as the country's post-pandemic rebound has run its course. Global gains are forecast to average just below 1 mb/d in 2024 and 2025, as subpar economic growth, greater efficiencies and vehicle electrification act as headwinds.
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2024

So we are using less oil, as predicted all along.
I was lucky, I found a recent chart!

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BBC 2021
The challenge of giving up North Sea extraction
The North Sea still contains large quantities of oil and gas but, in the midst of a climate emergency, how much longer can it continue to be extracted? To keep the world safe, scientists say... Blah Blah Blah
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-59002606

Compare that BBC statement to the chart above... This is the new "truth" you're meant to embrace btw. The world isn't running out of cheap oil, peakoil doesn't exist, we are choosing to not use oil.

May 28 2014 (why such an old story? because these facts are buried deep now, it's almost impossible to find up to date stuff)
The decline of North Sea oil and gas production continues. The trend is now a problem not just for the Scottish Nationalists but also for the UK Treasury and the 450,000 people who work in North Sea related businesses. The deplorable thing is that the decline is unnecessary and could be halted.
https://www.ft.com/content/47309c71-795 ... 697b3e0601

Could be halted? So the World will never run out of oil then? Well in truth the decline could be halted, simply by stopping extraction. Which is obviously the plan. The nations of the world driven into poverty not because all the cheap oil is gone but because we "chose to" to save the planet. Of course back of this psychology is the idea that if things get bad enough we'll just go back to oil right? I mean that's the message I get. Our current politicians are making choices but if things get bad enough we'll just toss them out and vote in leaders who will allow us to burn oil again.

This message is in stark contrast to the truth of peakoil, that the world has a limited amount of oil and Gas and we have burnt through the cheap easy half and it's all downhill from here. That there is no "going back"

Why is the UK turning into an episode of the hunger games?

The North Sea trend shown in the numbers is crystal clear. Output of oil and gas are both down by 40 per cent since 2010, with a fall of more than 10 per cent in 2013 alone. Output is now lower than at any time since 1977. The UK has become a net importer of oil for the first time since 1984. The implications are also clear. The tax revenue from oil and gas activity is falling.

The first North Sea oil came ashore in June 1975 and is thought to have peaked in 1999, with about 45 billion barrels extracted so far.


These charts and statements are the proof that the peakoil message of the early 2000's was correct. It implies that as time passes all corporations and activities based on oil will falter and collapse. I know I know, it's hard to understand that when you still have a job and can still fill up at the Gas station relatively cheaply. When those numbers on your computer screen that represent your life savings are still all there and the government pension is still being deposited in your account. And after all, we are just a decade and so past the conventional peak and there is still a lot of oil being pulled out of the ground. But the writing is on the wall.

All the main suppliers like Russia, Saudi Arabia etc have been cutting production over the past year or so. Blame covid or China or whatever TV meme you like but the fact remains the world is using less oil because there is less oil to be used. All across the world we are seeing the results, Protests over poverty, insurrections, mass migrations. Basically people unhappy that the promises of the 20th century didn't come true for them or that they are losing what they gained in that century of abundant cheap oil. American cities are filling up with hungry South Americans who for decades have looked north with envy at the lavish lifestyles of the Yanks. Now they want their share and they'll take it by force as we have seen.

Are you still a frog in the pot? Sitting placidly as the steam rises around you? Twenty years ago was the time for the average man to begin planning and executing plans to harden their life against these trends. Now it's all but impossible unless you have millions and can quickly escape to a place like Hawaii as Zuckerberk and his friends are doing. Singapore as many wealthy have done, Panama? Well good luck with that. Many have chosen to just sit back, wait and see. I liken them to those that remained in New Orleans as Katrina approached, or those that stayed in Nanking as the japanese army approached.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Tuike » Thu 25 Jul 2024, 15:30:20

I think oil field depletion is a taboo. There was once an article in local media which said Denmark is shutting down all oil production because of climate change. I checked online Denmark's oil production graph and the graph was pointing to zero production in steep angle. So Denmark had it's own peak oil and it's oil fields were already nearly depleted.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 25 Jul 2024, 16:45:09

Tuike wrote:I think oil field depletion is a taboo. There was once an article in local media which said Denmark is shutting down all oil production because of climate change. I checked online Denmark's oil production graph and the graph was pointing to zero production in steep angle. So Denmark had it's own peak oil and it's oil fields were already nearly depleted.
Don't forget to add in production from new fields and to take government proclamations with a grain of salt. Often politicans make promises without considering the ramifications because they will have long since retired by the time someone has to deal with the mess they made. Other times the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. Denmark already seems poised to break their promised shutdown of oil and gas production.

Despite co-founding the international Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA), and despite scientific consensus that new oil field developments will cause the world to miss its global warming targets, Denmark has approved vast expansion of extraction on its deepest North Sea oil field.

The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) approved on Friday a revised extraction project in the Hejre field in the North Sea by the energy company INEOS. The news comes one month after the fossil fuel company TotalEnergies announced a DKK 27 billion expansion of its Danish North Sea gas extraction.
Denmark greenlights another major oil extraction project in North Sea
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 25 Jul 2024, 23:41:19

Tuike wrote:I think oil field depletion is a taboo. There was once an article in local media which said Denmark is shutting down all oil production because of climate change. I checked online Denmark's oil production graph and the graph was pointing to zero production in steep angle. So Denmark had it's own peak oil and it's oil fields were already nearly depleted.


Yes, it's an effective cover story isn't it Tuike. Pretend you haven't lost control, make it look like it was your plan all along.

Australia is an odd one, the center is huge and unpopulated, a vast desert basically. In the early days we used to pipe oil in from there, but once it was found out on the continental shelf under shallow waters all the effort went to that. Bass Straight, the huge fields of West Australia. We passed peak production in 2001 and the Bass straight is rolling up now. I know a fifo guy who works there dismantling a rig.

But there are other men I have talked to, men who worked on exploration in the center. They tell me of vast untapped reserves, of many wells drilled and capped. It's hard to believe but two of these guys, retired now, were serious people, well established with huge 4x4 rigs towing caravans. I spoke to them in an RV park a few years ago, they reminisced about going out and visiting the sites and told me many convincing stories. Perhaps there are other untapped reserves, like the huge Russian one that was "Discovered" not long ago and has seen that nation's production rise above Saudi Arabia. They had passed their conventional peak years ago, or had they...

I speak of conventional oil because that's the only oil worth talking about as far as national prosperity is concerned. It lifts all boats whereas unconventional and coal to oil is just a desperation measure that adds nothing to society as a whole. As is evidenced by the US shale oil boom. A boom where homeless camps expand across the nation and people can't even afford the basic healthcare the rest of us in the West take for granted.

Newsom Issues EO For California Cities To Remove Homeless Encampments After Supreme Court Ruling
After years of encouraging rampant crime and degeneracy among the homeless population, and just in time for an election talking point, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order on Thursday for the removal of homeless encampments across the state.

"We must act with urgency to address dangerous encampments," Newsom said in a statement.


An Empire Of Lies
Why does government lie so repeatedly — and so atrociously? Why does it fear truth as the vampire fears garlic? The answer, we hazard, reduces to its desperate quest for prestige. Government equals authority. And an authority is an authority.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/empire-lies
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 07 Sep 2024, 14:48:41

This is an old old story of world affairs but it proves nothing has materially changed because of things like the UN or World Bank etc.

Nigeria is the eighth largest oil exporter in the world in terms of value. The main destination areas of crude oil from Nigeria are Europe and Asia. In the second quarter of 2023, the export value of crude oil to Europe amounted to about 1.48 trillion Naira (4 Billion dollars), while exports to Asia followed with 1.2 trillion Naira

Nigeria exported $4.83B to United States. The main products that Nigeria exported to United States were Crude Petroleum ($4.02B), Refined Petroleum ($254M), and Nitrogenous Fertilizers ($227M)
Nigerians lament hardship over cost and unavailability of fuel
--Google front page

See the disparity there? The first story deftly ignored the shipments to the US.

September 2024
Nigerians have voiced their frustrations over the worsening fuel scarcity, which has significantly impacted their businesses and daily earnings. Many have resorted to buying from the black market, where prices have skyrocketed from 630 Naira to over 1,000 Naira per liter.
https://punchng.com/nigerians-lament-ha ... y-of-fuel/

Population Nigeria: 218.5 million (That's a lot!)
770 Nigerian Naira is about 48 U.S. cents, so they have cheap fuel, by our standards, but they can't source what they need for daily life, supply is obviously being restricted, sent abroad to satisfy the West, it's a bidding war. 218 million, that's in the ballpark of the US population, the largest consumer per capita on the planet. Imagine if the Nigerians had all that oil and oil products to themselves, how good would be their standard of living?

That's ok, we deserve it by any measure, the World isn't a fair ground and never was. But it is a fairground in the sense if you don't have the money, you don't go on the rides. This shows how Peak Oil plays out. All around the world nations are seeing their standards of living eroded, even if they have abundant oil! The traditional colony nations are fairing the worst, but naturally Australia is an exception because it's basically all White. Africa is basically all Black and south America all whatever they are called (by skin color, by cultural heritage) So nothing changes, no wonder there are things like the BLM etc, a lot of non-whites feel hard done by, and they are :lol: :lol:

As we move further and further past the Peak of conventional cheap oil, back in 2007, things are getting tougher and tougher. People who own homes are racking up debt on their credit cards at a furious rate, they buy their daily groceries on it, get flybys, but the debt piles up and the mortgages grow for many as they "take equity out" believing they live in a magic money tree. Of course the rot had set in for America long before the Global Peak in 2008, they had peaked in 1970 and if it wasn't for the $US money shuffling that nation would be a lot worse off than it is. But Australia turned its corner in 2000 about and had to start importing refined product and oil, The UK when the North Sea petered out.

Again, and old old story, and don't be misled by the current accounting of shale oil or Gas liquid components. That's not cheap oil, that's unborn oil that undergoes an expensive process. Neither is deep-sea oil cheap, and they add nothing to the living standards of a nation as a whole, only to the living standards of a select minority. They allow us to keep our cars and trucks running at the old price but little else. There is nothing left over to build out a nation or even maintain what we have in a proper manner. Our societies are crumbling around us but we can still drive to chick-o-fill and stuff our faces.

The only 'peak' worth considering for the common man is 2008, signaled by the biggest price spike in history and the collapse of the financial system that was quickly wheeled into the OR and brought back to life with the greatest money creation package in history. Everything since then has been a patch up job, The global economy is like an old person in a wheelchair on a drip, just waiting for their next heart attack, the last one.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 08 Sep 2024, 17:03:37

theluckycountry wrote:As we move further and further past the Peak of conventional cheap oil, back in 2007, things are getting tougher and tougher.


Can you even define "conventional" oil? Certainly an oil type, in this case "conventional" (whatever you think that might be) does not carry with it an inherent price. An oil type carries with it an API gravity, a color, viscosity, sweet/sour based on certain impurities, etc etc. Two oils with very similar characteristics from the list I've provided have no requirement to have similar prices, let alone be "cheap", whatever price you think that might be.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby TheWalrus » Mon 09 Sep 2024, 06:12:58

Replying to the post by Pops in which a graph was inserted -
Nice graph. A lot of information in a tight space.
Just wanted to offer a different opinion on oil price. I was tracking oil very closely then (and posting here regularly). The graph notes that conventional crude peaked in 2005ish and then notes that a price spike occurred because of that peak.
That is incorrect, and there is no support for that claim.

What happened, of course, is depicted in the movie The Big Short. There was a crisis in the U.S. caused by subprime housing loan default rates accelerating. That caused mortgage backed securities to crash in value, which was exacerbated greatly by CDOs and the like (watch the movie for more).

In any event, the big money was in a full blown panic and money fled out of MBSs and other similar instruments and went into . . . every commodity. For example, gold price, which had already been increasing, went up 17, 24, and 32 percent in 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. That was a direct consequence of the subprime housing crisis. The Fed started money printing circa 2007, and that is why gold prices stayed high.

Oil came back down because the impact of conventional peak was not yet being felt, and, of course, shale came on line.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 09 Sep 2024, 18:34:19

TheWalrus wrote:Replying to the post by Pops in which a graph was inserted -
Nice graph. A lot of information in a tight space.
Just wanted to offer a different opinion on oil price. I was tracking oil very closely then (and posting here regularly). The graph notes that conventional crude peaked in 2005ish and then notes that a price spike occurred because of that peak.
That is incorrect, and there is no support for that claim.

Did you find anywhere or see a definition of this infamous "conventional" oil so that we know what it might be? Seems relevant, hard to claim something "peaked" if the folks talking about it don't even know what the something is.

TheWalrus wrote:What happened, of course, is depicted in the movie The Big Short. There was a crisis in the U.S. caused by subprime housing loan default rates accelerating. That caused mortgage backed securities to crash in value, which was exacerbated greatly by CDOs and the like (watch the movie for more).

In any event, the big money was in a full blown panic and money fled out of MBSs and other similar instruments and went into . . . every commodity. For example, gold price, which had already been increasing, went up 17, 24, and 32 percent in 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. That was a direct consequence of the subprime housing crisis. The Fed started money printing circa 2007, and that is why gold prices stayed high.

Oil came back down because the impact of conventional peak was not yet being felt, and, of course, shale came on line.


Okay..your link to economic activites related to markets and housing and whatnot don't seem to relate "oil coming back down" (price or volume?) and of course, I don't even know what oil you happen to be talking about.

Gas produced from shale in the US came on line in 1821 with the Hart well in NY. Devonian shale to be precise...you know...the same stuff that came online in the Marcellus some century or two later.

Oil produced from shale came online late 19th century, call it 1880-1900 or so. So....how do these facts affect your timeline? Perhaps you want to change your economic link to The Panic of 1884 in the US? Or the Panic of 1890?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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