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Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 05 Sep 2023, 17:43:33

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 05 Sep 2023, 17:57:51

Suck it up old Fool!

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Oil Soars To New 2023 High After Saudis, Russia Surprise With Extended Production Cut


... moments ago oil exploded higher after first Saudi Arabia and moments later Russia surprised markets by announcing that the recently implemented production cuts would be extended through year-end, well beyond the 1 month that was widely expected by the market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-s ... uction-cut

Sounds like a coordinated effort to me, a cartel in action, the BRICS-saudi cartel, There is an old threadbare saying repeated over and over on the web, but I thinks it's appropriate here.

"And so it begins"

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Pops » Thu 07 Dec 2023, 18:04:24

Matt has some new posts re the Gaza war, he gives good chart too

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ME oil supply situation as Gaza war brings world into unknown territory (part 1)[

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 10 Dec 2023, 10:35:49

I don't know if even the major players over there know what's going on. Iranian backed Houthi rebels were at war with Saudi Arabia for the last 7 years, now that's subsided and they are firing missiles at Israel? Saudi Arabia was all set to negotiate a trade deal with the Israelis and week before the meetings the Hamas Shoots itself in both legs by crossing the border and murdering hundreds of Israeli civilians? I mean that, by any standard, is a gross act of terrorism. Why not just focus on the military bases? The attacked one successfully, they could have made their point (whatever that is) and then crawled back into their tunnels but instead they gave the Israelis sanction to turn their state into a mass graveyard. None of it makes any sense?

Now the Israelis will take all the oil and gas off the coast of Gaza for themselves. Strange people those Arabs... One thing is certain though, the age of relative peace on Earth is gone. The Big Empire shift from West to East is on the way, with big wars to accompany that as always.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Pops » Fri 15 Dec 2023, 14:05:41

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Dec 2023, 23:49:26



I heard that interview on the Nate Hagens podcast.....it's really good.

I'll just summarize it here----Art Berman thinks that fracking in the USA can't continue to grow production for much longer, and he predicts peak oil will happen in the next five years or so, which agrees with the prediction I made four years ago that peak oil will happen in the 2020s.

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 17 Dec 2023, 15:31:36

Plantagenet wrote: fracking in the USA can't continue to grow production for much longer,


what about the rest of the world?
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2023, 19:52:49

mousepad wrote:
Plantagenet wrote: fracking in the USA can't continue to grow production for much longer,


what about the rest of the world?


If you listen to the Art Berman interview in the Nate Hagen podcast in the link above, he says large scale fracking and production of shale oil outside of the US is unlikely to ever take off like it did in the US because other countries lack the kind of aggressive small oil companies that produced the shale oil rush in the USA.

Personally, I think there will be some shale oil fracking done outside of the USA, but not enough to prevent oil production from peaking in the 2020s.

How about you??? Do you think fracking will take off outside of the USA??

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Shale oil basins of the world.....

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 17 Dec 2023, 20:10:45

Plantagenet wrote:How about you??? Do you think fracking will take off outside of the USA??


Thanks for asking, unfortunately I don't have much idea about the oil industry.
However once prices at the pump climb higher and higher I would imagine that this will spur fracking in the unlikeliest of places. Or said differently. Why would the ragheads and Russians frack if they can get more than enough conventional oil for practically free?
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 17 Dec 2023, 21:06:04

I don't think physics change per region.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Jan 2024, 15:16:18

"2025 Is When The World Will Be Short Of Oil": Occidental CEO Warns Oil Supply Crunch Begins Next Year

The world would find itself short of oil from 2025 onwards as exploration for longer-producing crude reserves is set to lag demand growth, Vicki Hollub, chief executive of Occidental Petroleum, said at the Davos forum on Tuesday. For most of the second half of the 20th century, oil companies were finding more crude than global consumption, around five times the demand volumes, Hollub said, as carried by Reuters.

The ratio of discovered resources versus demand has dropped in recent decades and is now at around 25%. “In the near term, the markets are not balanced; supply, demand is not balanced,” Oxy’s CEO said. “2025 and beyond is when the world is going to be short of oil.” According to the executive, the oil market will find itself moving from an oversupply in the near term to a long period of supply shortages.

Oil industry executives have been warning that new resources, new investments, and new supply will be needed just to maintain the current supply levels as older fields mature.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/O ... -2025.html
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 31 Jan 2024, 20:18:52

“Energy cannibalism”

Basically it is the trend of using more and more energy to extract energy. Whether the energy being used is diesel refined from conventional oil to facilitate the drilling and extraction of light shale oil, or it's using coal or gas fired electricity to pump oil out of, or seawater into, an old conventional oil field.

It's a simple fact that the net energy to society from oil drilling has been in decline, basically since the inception of oil wells. I mean as soon as they started to fill wooden barrels with oil from the gushers 100 years ago and ship them across country using coal fired trains the rot was setting in. Now of course the rot back then wasn't at all bad for society, oil became available for mass usage for the first time. But it doesn't change the fact that energy was consumed to take the energy away from the field and process it now does it.

Now today the energy consumed simply to get the oil out of the ground is phenomenal. How much energy is consumed to access a deepwater field and bring the oil to shore? How much to drill the plethora of horizontal shale wells and fill them with sand and chemicals? This is why looking at touted oil production figures and "the peak" of oil is actually a misleading exercise. It made sense in the 1990's when Colin Campbell first put forward the overall concept of peak oil as coming in 2007, but the cannibalism since his day has muddied the waters. And you can't see through muddy water, it's opaque.

2025: A Civilizational Tipping Point

In the past couple of posts I already hinted at how the US shale boom will soon come to an end, and also mentioned the net energy predicament besetting the petroleum and mining industry. The process of replacing high yield, low energy cost fields with ever costlier ones is a well known “secret” of the industry, but nary a single soul talks about it outside geologist circles. You see, it’s not that we will run out of oil from one day to another, catapulting our entire society into the dark ages ahead, but that oil extraction will return ever less net energy over time… To the point of diminishing returns, resulting in a relentless economic contraction, making any transition to any other energy source impossible. The Journal of Petroleum Technology, the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ flagship magazine has published an article in 2023 saying just that:
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“Energy necessary for the production of oil liquids is growing at an exponential rate, representing 15.5% of the energy production of oil liquids today and projected to reach a proportion equivalent to half of the gross energy output by 2050 (Delannoy et al. 2021).

When the energy required for the extraction and production of these liquids is taken into account, the net-energy peak is expected to occur in 2025 at a level of 400 PJ/d [1]. In the foreseeable future, the energy needed to produce oil liquids could approach unsustainable levels, a phenomenon called “energy cannibalism.”

The concept of energy cannibalism is becoming increasingly relevant, as mounting energy use in oil production means the very resources needed for the transition to renewable energy may be constrained, particularly when viewed from a net-energy perspective and in terms of economic growth.”

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Peak net energy means that no matter how hard we try to replace our declining easy-to-tap traditional oil reserves with tar sands, or ultra-deep wells drilled into the seafloor, beyond a certain point we will no longer be able to increase the amount of oil available for other uses (like manufacturing, transport, mining, agriculture, etc.). “Energy cannibalism” does not stop at the peak though: it will continue to take ever more energy to maintain oil extraction as existing fields “mature”. Operating drilling equipment, pumping seawater or CO2 into ageing wells to uphold production, delivering sand used in re-fracking existing wells etc. will continue take up an ever larger portion of the oil produced — as well as other forms of energy — leaving less and less for the rest of the economy (2). Is it any wonder then that oil companies have opted to pay back their investors instead of drilling new wells, and called it a day?
Article continues: https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/ ... um=reader2

So 2025 for a net energy peak, but bear in mind that even though more oil product has been made available to society, the relative cost of it has increased so much since the 2008 peak of conventional oil that the lifestyle of the average "consumer" on the planet has clearly declined. Take away the oil 'consumers' have borrowed from the future (debt) and the situation is far worse.

So next year it will be worse, and the year after worse still. It's like were all on a diet of rabbit and vegetables but the rabbits are feeding in the vegetable patch. As the number of rabbits grow and grow to meet our growing demand the vegetable patch gets smaller and smaller. Eventually we'll be on a rabbit only diet and that my friends leads to what's known as rabbit starvation.
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