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Page added on October 9, 2023

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Oil Prices Soar After Attacks on Israel

Oil prices surged after a shock attack on Israel by Hamas brought renewed instability to the Middle East.

More than 1,400 people have died since the fighting between Israel and militant group Hamas broke out over the weekend, in a conflict that has potential repercussions across the wider region. US crude futures settled above $86 a barrel, at one point rallying 5.4%.

While Israel’s role in global oil supply is limited, the bloody outbreak threatens to embroil both the US and Iran. Iran has become a major source of extra crude this year, alleviating otherwise tightening markets, but additional American sanctions on Tehran could constrain those shipments.

“Recently crude has been prone to overreact to geopolitical events and price increases have been short-lived,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “This situation may prove to be the exception,” with the market especially sensitive to potential supply disruptions.

Any retaliation against Tehran — amid reports that it helped to plan the attacks — could endanger the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit that transports much of the world’s crude and which the Iranian government previously threatened to close. Iran denied on Monday that it was involved in the assault.

The surge after the attacks added a fresh bout of volatility to a market that has seen sizable swings over the last month. In late September, Brent was on course to rally up to $100 a barrel as cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia tightened the market, before retreating sharply last week as concerns about consumption and financial flows pulled prices lower.

Early trading on Monday saw a flurry of bullish activity in the Brent options markets, with call options that profit from higher oil prices outpacing — by more than three-to-one — bearish put options.


  • WTI for November delivery climbed $3.59 to settle at $86.38 a barrel in New York.
  • Brent for December delivery rose $3.57 to settle at $88.15 a barrel.

The conflict may have far-reaching consequences for crude. Banks had a wide range of takes on the potential impacts:

  • Citigroup said the hostilities reduce expectations that Saudi Arabia will cut or eliminate its 1 million barrels-a-day of output curbs. Risks are also growing that Israel will attack Iran, analysts including Ed Morse said.
  • Morgan Stanley said that they thought the impact of the conflict would be limited. For now they don’t expect a spillover into other countries, meaning there will be a muted longer-term impact on crude prices.
  • Societe Generale SA said heightened geopolitical tensions could add $5-$10 risk premium to crude prices.
  • RBC Capital Markets analysts including Helima Croft said Israel will likely escalate a long-running shadow war against Iran, but Tehran’s response to such a move will be less clear.


4 Comments on "Oil Prices Soar After Attacks on Israel"

  1. Theedrich on Mon, 9th Oct 2023 9:52 pm 

    72 virgins in heat now await each Hamas peacenik. The woundrous Religion of Peace has made another fun ploy and made an Osama-ben-Laden type attack on IsItReal.  The Israelis preferred to concentrate on the US proxy war in Ukraine.  The only practical solution would have been to deport the entire population of the Gaza strip to, if not Jordan, then, say, to Madagascar.  The idea that Islam can be domesticated is another wishdream of political elites and the oligarchs of the World Economic Forum (Weltwirtschaftsforum).  Allah hath decreed that certain countries must simply tranship all of their young men to the sexual paradise that Mohammed hath promised.

    𝖁𝖊𝖗𝖎𝖙𝖆𝖘 𝖑𝖎𝖇𝖊𝖗𝖆𝖇𝖎𝖙 𝖛𝖔𝖘.

  2. Meister on Tue, 10th Oct 2023 7:04 am 

    Hmmm, my hunch is that Gaza was flooded with western weapons from Ukrainian black markets, shipped by Turkey. Egypt warned Israel that something big was brewing, but Jerusalem choose to ignore the signal, likely on purpose, letting Hamas slaughter 1000-2000 Israelis as a pawn sacrifice, creating the pretext for Israel to destroy Hamas once and for all, applying the usual kill rate ratio 1:23. And send hundreds of thousands of real Palestinian refugees to wet fart EU, so they can deal with the problem. Let’s see if it plays out that way.

    Haaretz, the only adult in the room, blames Netanyahu for this stunt:

    And all the US deep state and Israel Lobby watercarriers like Nikki Haley and princess Buttercup Lindsey Graham call for finishing off Hamas AND IRAN, an Iran that can shut off the Gulf, depriving Europe and China of essential oil and gas… but not the US.

    Meanwhile the AfD and likely Frau Wagenknecht are to become a major factor in German politics that can’t be ignored. Expect them to start talks with Russia about far-reaching economic cooperation. Russia is going to prevail in Ukraine. Consider NATO dead.

  3. Ted Wilson on Tue, 10th Oct 2023 12:56 pm 

    Those countries that did not mention about war on the 1st day need not mention until the last day. They have no rights to question Israel.

  4. Ted Wilson on Tue, 10th Oct 2023 12:58 pm 

    Global population is split between
    30% Christianity
    20% Islam.

    However if you look at under age 40 population, it will be
    30% Islam
    20% Christianity

    Now you know why they dare to attack any country.

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