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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby roccman » Fri 06 Mar 2020, 18:05:04

onlooker wrote:AZ just 1 big one missing. Large temperature spike as global economic collapse dilutes the blanket effect of global dimming. Research folks if you doubt this. This temp spike leading to massive crop failure


yup...This has been available for nearly 15 years. I am amazed it is hardly ever mentioned.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 06 Mar 2020, 18:12:45

The funny thing about the aerosol masking effect is that if we actually knew it was going to be bad, no one would show up for work on the next day or the next week. It would be instant suicide if the sensitivity number is as high as some suspect. The scientists will be happy they got a measurement, though.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 06 Mar 2020, 18:32:53

Azothius wrote:When you look at our "combined exposure" from the different crises (large and not-so-large) the world is facing now, are we at a pronounced heightened state for a black swan event to occur?

What will be the straw that broke the camel's back?

Some redundancies here, but just spelling them out. What else should be added to the list that at this moment could be a contributing factor?

- Covid-19 Pandemic
- potential for medical systems to be overwhelmed
- production disruptions
- supply chain disruptions
- shortages of critical necessities
- world stock markets plummeting
- stock market was artificially propped up to begin with
- economic activity disrupted
- economic shutdown deprives people of incomes
- stock market collapses destroys retirement savings
- US National debt at record high
- US consumer debt at record high
- US shale oil debt bubble bursts
- global trade disrupted
- China's $32 trillion debt bubble bursts
- large wealth gap
- politcal polarization

- African Swine Fever decimating hog populations in 40 different countries
- Worst Locust plague in 70 years affecting 20 different countries, poised to become worse
- Alaska cod fishery closed
- about to enter the melt phase of the arctic ice cap
- extreme/anomalous weather
- outrage over results of the upcoming US presidential election




Yup, everything is hitting at once.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 06 Mar 2020, 18:58:38

onlooker wrote:AZ just 1 big one missing. Large temperature spike as global economic collapse dilutes the blanket effect of global dimming. Research folks if you doubt this. This temp spike leading to massive crop failure


Thank you.

I think we've all read about or have seen those images of clear skies over Beijing/China - have you encountered any articles about this specific event and its implications for global dimming? Please provide links if and when you do.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 07 Mar 2020, 15:26:50

Armageddon wrote:Yup, everything is hitting at once.

Of course. Let's pretend like ALL those things are brand new and are ALL "hitting at once".

Because if braying constant doom for decades doesn't work, more FUD spreading perhaps will. :roll:

Meanwhile, even though as usual, plenty of problems occur, some very nasty: BAU continues apace over time, warts and all, hiccups and all.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 07 Mar 2020, 17:43:54

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Yup, everything is hitting at once.

Of course. Let's pretend like ALL those things are brand new and are ALL "hitting at once".

Because if braying constant doom for decades doesn't work, more FUD spreading perhaps will. :roll:

Meanwhile, even though as usual, plenty of problems occur, some very nasty: BAU continues apace over time, warts and all, hiccups and all.

I've been waiting to see if people will see a link between global warming and pandemics. I'm not saying there is one. For me to accept that I need to see some science first. I just wondered if people would jump to that conclusion.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 04:46:20

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Yup, everything is hitting at once.

Of course. Let's pretend like ALL those things are brand new and are ALL "hitting at once".

Because if braying constant doom for decades doesn't work, more FUD spreading perhaps will. :roll:

Meanwhile, even though as usual, plenty of problems occur, some very nasty: BAU continues apace over time, warts and all, hiccups and all.


No one suggested that "those things are all band new". For some of those items, we are experiencing cumulative effects/results that have built up over years. Some items have just developed, and suggest negative implications for those things that have built up over the years.

I would not say that the moment "BAU continues apace..."

Yes, you said "over time", perhaps "just a hiccup". For that, we shall see.

Not sure why you take such ugly pleasure in bashing those who seek situational awareness at the highest level. You might want to look into the ugliness within your own character.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 12:04:55

Things move in phases in the doomerverse.

Ever since the economy recovered from the recession what's left of the dialogue here had shifted over to a pitched battle between those who were in or not in denial that the recovery happened or that fracking was a genuine game-changer. This is what brought forth the peak-oil apologia of ETP. It just seemed like the discussion simply could not progress beyond trying to explain 2008 and the subsequent unraveling of the peak oil movement.

Where that left off most recently is Short lost his bet and his allies whittled down to just one or two and Armageddon took over the board with his debt bomb talk.

Mind you, oil depletion is no longer being seriously considered. Everyone simply debated how long the bull market could last and how deep the next recession would be, regardless of the reason for the bubble bursting.

I think this has been the longest period of economic health in history. Cyclical downturns happened before, long before there was a peakoil.com around to wring our hands over it or smugly ask "Got Gold?"

Point being that validation of peak oil doomerism is still as elusive today as it was 10 years ago.

There are those here who will attempt to link any and all negative world events back (Crash Course style) to oil, but this linkage is tenuous at best. Recession, depression, even dollar collapse may indeed happen. Zombie hordes may happen. But nobody other than a tiny remnant of self-congratulatory doomers will be thinking it has anything to do with oil depletion--because objectively speaking it doesn't.

This is why no matter how bad the economy gets I don't predict that there will be a massive wave of new posters here to bring back the glory days. This site will remain a ghost town because the central premise of peak oil doom failed and remains a failure.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 12:45:17

I’ve always said and will continue to believe that PO will be masked by demand destruction when the economy plunges. We are witnessing this in China now. The rest of the world will follow. We are definitely past peak conventional oil. Alternative measures have bridged the gap. Without shale and fracking, we wouldn’t have made it this far.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 13:06:44

Can't help thinking this is like the fable of the frog in the pot with the water slowly getting hotter. Until, of course the frog boils to death. Well, so many peopke just reacting to events and witnessing them without calamity yet striking them or those in their vicinity. Not understanding the deeper dysfunctional dynamics. And yet many of these events are manifestations that the very foundations of our civilization and human environment are crumbling as we speak. So some here like out in the world say oh nothing really bad is happening so stop being alarmist. They are the frogs
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Pops » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 13:23:46

asg70 wrote:This site will remain a ghost town because the central premise of peak oil doom failed and remains a failure.

Here is the central premise (I know 'cuz I wrote it)
...any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output...
peakoil.com/what-is-peak-oil

If you can prove oil supply is infinite you can prove the central premise a failure and be a hero to all the optimists. Failing that you're just spouting opinion and projecting your favored trendline to infinity like everyone else. Pretty funny in this of all threads.

People grew tired of PO doom in the wake of the recession, the site was virtually abandoned to the spam. My personal belief was the realisation of a little actual doom took all the fun out of playing the game. That was long before fracking. But turns out near-term PO was a victim of its own success! Oil prices averaged $100 or more for 6 years because why? Right, constrained conventional supply created what turned out to be an interim peak — right on schedule. The reality of a interim peak and tripled price financed the improvement of directional drilling and fracing to provide another Wile E Coyote extension to the peak.

My view is PO appeared as predicted and financed its own postponement. I'm good with that because my first post asked 'how long do we have to prepare before prep is unaffordable?' Personally I'm way more hopeful due to advancing tech—not more frack-stages or longer-bores type tech— but cheaper PV and wind, and higher energy efficiency tech. Those will be the key to the future - green jobs not oil jobs.

But make no mistake, depletion never sleeps. Oil production will peak, the only question is will we have prepared in time?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 13:46:12

onlooker wrote:many of these events are manifestations that the very foundations of our civilization and human environment are crumbling as we speak. So some here like out in the world say oh nothing really bad is happening so stop being alarmist.


What never sleeps is the strawmanning. I don't think anybody here denies the underlying problems. What we object to is the constant linking to zerohedge and what not in order to predict insta-mutant-zombie-biker doom.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 13:51:03

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:many of these events are manifestations that the very foundations of our civilization and human environment are crumbling as we speak. So some here like out in the world say oh nothing really bad is happening so stop being alarmist.


What never sleeps is the strawmanning. I don't think anybody here denies the underlying problems. What we object to is the constant linking to zerohedge and what not in order to predict insta-mutant-zombie-biker doom.

Asg, you must be confusing me with somebody else. I have NOT been calling insta-mutant-zombie-biker doom
I have been talking of underlying deterioration, you know oil depletion, environmental devastation, accumulated debt etc. . Granted I have been adhereing to the ETP and even Short was not predicting instant doom.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 13:52:56

Pops wrote:
asg70 wrote:This site will remain a ghost town because the central premise of peak oil doom failed and remains a failure.

Here is the central premise (I know 'cuz I wrote it)
...any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output...
peakoil.com/what-is-peak-oil

If you can prove oil supply is infinite you can prove the central premise a failure and be a hero to all the optimists. Failing that you're just spouting opinion and projecting your favored trendline to infinity like everyone else. Pretty funny in this of all threads.

People grew tired of PO doom in the wake of the recession, the site was virtually abandoned to the spam. My personal belief was the realisation of a little actual doom took all the fun out of playing the game. That was long before fracking. But turns out near-term PO was a victim of its own success! Oil prices averaged $100 or more for 6 years because why? Right, constrained conventional supply created what turned out to be an interim peak — right on schedule. The reality of a interim peak and tripled price financed the improvement of directional drilling and fracing to provide another Wile E Coyote extension to the peak.

My view is PO appeared as predicted and financed its own postponement. I'm good with that because my first post asked 'how long do we have to prepare before prep is unaffordable?' Personally I'm way more hopeful due to advancing tech—not more frack-stages or longer-bores type tech— but cheaper PV and wind, and higher energy efficiency tech. Those will be the key to the future - green jobs not oil jobs.

But make no mistake, depletion never sleeps. Oil production will peak, the only question is will we have prepared in time?


Jeez, Pop, don't challenge ASG's carefully nurtured narrative. He's been working on it here for years. Indeed, if Peak Oil is a joke, why are the cornies still here? No life at all?

Meanwhile, I agree on the preps thing. Not expecting society at large to be anything more than reactionary, but, here at the Hermitstead, I'm currently installing our new battery set. Our last set of big lead-acid cells was installed on October 7, 2007 and have grown quite tired. Retiring them for a new set of LiFePo4 modules. We also replaced our aging Trace inverters with a pair of efficient new Outbacks. I paid a lot of things forward in the late '90s (and haven't paid a power/water/sewer bill in 22 years). Sold some property last fall and just couldn't think of a better investment as other bases are covered.

No bills for the above mentioned things, no debts, no mortgage, no real ambition;;; the basics of our retirement plan.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 14:01:39

onlooker wrote:I have been adhereing to the ETP


You shouldn't be. You rebuked it many months ago when Short lost his bet. Once a doomer always a doomer.

GHung wrote:if Peak Oil is a joke, why are the cornies still here?


Boredom, mostly.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Pops » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 14:17:33

GHung wrote: no debts, no mortgage, no real ambition;;; the basics of our retirement plan.

roger that, LOL
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 14:18:35

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:I have been adhereing to the ETP


You shouldn't be. You rebuked it many months ago when Short lost his bet. Once a doomer always a doomer.

GHung wrote:if Peak Oil is a joke, why are the cornies still here?


Boredom, mostly.


I don't think I've ever been bored. Even while stuck on a submarine for months at a time. Always something to learn, a book to read, that next little project, time for self-reflection/meditation. .....

After my lunch settles I'm going to research the difference in charging parameters between lead-acid batteries and LiFePo4 batteries. Nothing boring about that!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 14:47:49

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:many of these events are manifestations that the very foundations of our civilization and human environment are crumbling as we speak. So some here like out in the world say oh nothing really bad is happening so stop being alarmist.


What never sleeps is the strawmanning. I don't think anybody here denies the underlying problems. What we object to is the constant linking to zerohedge and what not in order to predict insta-mutant-zombie-biker doom.

+ 1
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 15:09:29

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:many of these events are manifestations that the very foundations of our civilization and human environment are crumbling as we speak. So some here like out in the world say oh nothing really bad is happening so stop being alarmist.


What never sleeps is the strawmanning. I don't think anybody here denies the underlying problems. What we object to is the constant linking to zerohedge and what not in order to predict insta-mutant-zombie-biker doom.

+ 1


Why do you object? Scared it could be true? Hear no evil? ..........

Do you even know?
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 15:19:46

Pops wrote:
GHung wrote: no debts, no mortgage, no real ambition;;; the basics of our retirement plan.

roger that, LOL

If that were more far more normal, our society (re the first world) and our planet would most likely be in FAR better shape.

I remember when a friend of mine who wanted some help with saving and investing confessed to being a "cheapskate", and acted embarrassed. I looked him firmly in the eye told him that if by that he meant he was "frugal", which I presumed from knowing him, that HE SHOULD WEAR THAT LIKE A BADGE OF HONOR instead of being embarrassed by it. (Somehow, we have gotten very UPSIDE-DOWN re deciding what's important, re material things, since the 70's, when I was a teen).

To the extent that as a retiree, I have some extra income I'm comfortable parting with, I'd much rather use it to provide income, quality education and security for my sister and her kids. Or help our local homeless and troubled vet population, with long term security, counseling, job training, etc. through a well vetted and efficient foundation who provides for such folks. VS, say having a late model car with an "L" on it, an expensive house, fancy clothes, or any other outward marker of "success" or "status".

How did the first world get so crazy that for a huge proportion of the populace, keeping up with some imagined Joneses, re an income level much higher than one has, no matter how MUCH income, one has, become normal?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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