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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 27 Feb 2020, 05:04:20

Just popping in to point out that credit markets have frozen (yes, on CONVID-19 fears)...first time since just before the crash of '07. The time does indeed seem to have arrived.

OS wrote: "There's little chance that the Coronavirus is going to make plenty of economic indicators look bad..."

Sometimes it is just astonishing how very wrong some people can be! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Global Credit Market Seizes Up as Coronavirus Halts Bond Sales

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavi ... 08997.html

Biggest Junk-Bond ETF Suffers Stampede With Credit-Market Freeze

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest- ... 26635.html

Credit Markets Freeze

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-sg/news-a ... de-plunges

Junk-bond issuance stops ‘dead in its tracks’ on coronavirus fears

....bonds have suffered their worst slump in almost a decade.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/junk- ... 2020-02-26
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 27 Feb 2020, 17:35:19

dohboi wrote:OS wrote: "There's little chance that the Coronavirus is going to make plenty of economic indicators look bad..."

OTOH, why not learn to use the quote function properly like an adult? Oh, and why not give the whole relevant part of the quote, in context?

...

First, I messed up what I said. Clearly, IN CONTEXT, I meant to say, that FOR AWHILE, clearly COVID-19 will make the plenty of numbers look bad, because by the time I wrote that -- IT WAS CLEAR THEY ALREADY WERE.

Continued in the next post, where I want to show my larger quote in context (using the quote function) to make my point.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 27 Feb 2020, 23:01:54

Today was the biggest single-day point drop in Dow history!
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worst ... depression
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 28 Feb 2020, 04:43:30

So what was that OS about us doomers being wrong all the time :P :P
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 28 Feb 2020, 10:42:46

onlooker wrote:So what was that OS about us doomers being wrong all the time :P :P


Nobody predicted a pandemic. It was all about it being just a bubble that would pop on its own.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Feb 2020, 11:29:32

onlooker wrote:So what was that OS about us doomers being wrong all the time :P :P


Did you predict this virus outbreak? Would you like to make a bet on the price of oil or the DOW? Cause you know I'm always in on this sort of thing. :-D

I only make this offer to you and Armageddon since the rest of the doomers like Shorty won't honor a lost wager.

Come on man. You know you want to bet on doom. Let me be that guy that makes your dreams come true.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 28 Feb 2020, 11:32:31

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:So what was that OS about us doomers being wrong all the time :P :P


Did you predict this virus outbreak? Would you like to make a bet on the price of oil or the DOW? Cause you know I'm always in on this sort of thing. :-D

Okay, I will bet you on something. They will continue printing more funny money :lol: :lol:
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Feb 2020, 11:39:06

onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:So what was that OS about us doomers being wrong all the time :P :P


Did you predict this virus outbreak? Would you like to make a bet on the price of oil or the DOW? Cause you know I'm always in on this sort of thing. :-D

Okay, I will bet you on something. They will continue printing more funny money :lol: :lol:


Maybe Bernie will print $60 trillion to pay for his promises. Its the American way man. :-D
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 28 Feb 2020, 12:46:37

Cog, the question you should be asking is whether President Trump can 'print' his way out of this? He's been trying, though. Every cut to taxes for the wealthy means we 'print' more to compensate.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Feb 2020, 20:25:46

jedrider wrote:Cog, the question you should be asking is whether President Trump can 'print' his way out of this? He's been trying, though. Every cut to taxes for the wealthy means we 'print' more to compensate.


I've never met a Democrat that didn't want to raise taxes on someone.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 28 Feb 2020, 20:43:56

Cog wrote:
jedrider wrote:Cog, the question you should be asking is whether President Trump can 'print' his way out of this? He's been trying, though. Every cut to taxes for the wealthy means we 'print' more to compensate.


I've never met a Democrat that didn't want to raise taxes on someone.


I've never met a Republican that for political expediency wouldn't gladly borrow from the future.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 29 Feb 2020, 00:05:10

jedrider wrote:Cog, the question you should be asking is whether President Trump can 'print' his way out of this? He's been trying, though. Every cut to taxes for the wealthy means we 'print' more to compensate.




Every president will out spend the previous one no matter what party he’s from. Debt is growing exponential.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sat 29 Feb 2020, 02:28:42

Excellent point, Jedrider.

The GAO estimates Trump's 2020 deficit will exceed $1.5 TRILLION as Trump's tax cut for the wealthy coupled with an unlimited military budget fully come into line. Trump calculates his record deficits will be a future president's problem so no worries during his term in office.

Question: Which political party has morphed over the past half-century from a socially moderate, environmentally progressive and fiscally cautious group to a party that rejects science, actively works to delegitimize and destroy government institutions, demands total control over a woman's reproductive health, creates record-setting budget deficits, and is determined to commit ecocide?
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 29 Feb 2020, 12:13:04

Both sides have only accentuated the worst aspects of their ideology. The left has become an inverse version of the 80s religious right as far as trying to curtail freedom of speech and socially engineer whereas the right presents a more existential danger by virtue of its anti-science, denialist, brown-tech policies. Both of them lack fiscal restraint. They just blow their money on different things. The country is in dire need of a pragmatic centrist. Obama was as close as we've come to having one. Left of center to be sure but nowhere near as left as, let's say, Bernie Sanders. Centrists are hated by both extremes but without one the country will just see-saw from one extreme to the other with half the country threatening secession or civil war.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 29 Feb 2020, 15:27:37

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:So what was that OS about us doomers being wrong all the time :P :P


Nobody predicted a pandemic. It was all about it being just a bubble that would pop on its own.

When doomers are so clueless they don't even know what being right is, they simply make my point. 8O

Thank you Onlooker for doing such a swell job at that. :idea: :roll:

When we have an actual GLOBAL COLLAPSE in the economy AND it's caused by the system collapsing from DEBT, which is what Onlooker's ilk constantly, incorrectly brays about, THEN his ilk MIGHT have something to brag about, re predictions.

I wouldn't hold my breath on that. In fact, when it DOESN'T occur (re an ACTUAL economic collapse wiping out the system as the fast crash doomers keep claiming will happen real soon now), it actually will show the OPPOSITE of what they keep claiming -- that the system isn't rapidly doomed, even when it comes under unusual stress. Just like in 2007-2009. :!:

Big hint for the brayers of doom: A deep recession is NOT "collapse". Even though some of the worst offenders and their blatant lies claim we've been in a decade plus long DEPRESSION since 2007, in their own made-up world of economics. :lol:

Even if COVID-19 sweeps around the world fairly rapidly, it will more likely look economically something like the painful but NOT "collapse" scenario of the 2007-2009 mess -- i.e. a deep and scary recession.

And of course, we won't know quite a few key things like how weather, the spread of the virus, countermeasures like medicines including vaccines, things like travel and living restrictions, etc. will go, re how it will play out. (The mean old future always being so hard to predict and all. :idea: ).

If it ends up being another seasonal flu with multiple effective vaccines within a few years (as I suspect, re various forecasts from actual viral/medical experts), how much economic calamity will that entail? I'd forecast a somewhat slower than normal economic recovery, but recovery nonetheless.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 29 Feb 2020, 15:29:39

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:So what was that OS about us doomers being wrong all the time :P :P


Did you predict this virus outbreak? Would you like to make a bet on the price of oil or the DOW? Cause you know I'm always in on this sort of thing. :-D

Okay, I will bet you on something. They will continue printing more funny money :lol: :lol:


Maybe Bernie will print $60 trillion to pay for his promises. Its the American way man. :-D

Or Maybe nominating Bernie will sweep Trump in for another term. Then we can listen to four more years about how Trump winning was totally unpredictable, and is all some conspiracy theory. :roll:

And BTW, if the dems can just manage to nominate some moderate, somewhat rational and experienced candidate, I'll vote for them, given Trump's track record. If they choose Bernie, I'll just throw up my hands and vote 3rd party again. Not that it will matter in my dark red state.

...

But seriously, is getting rid of Trump job one for the dems, or is waving the redistributionist and big government flag job one? Or should the dems break up into multiple parties? Because they can't seem to decide.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 29 Feb 2020, 15:47:14

asg70 wrote:Both sides have only accentuated the worst aspects of their ideology. The left has become an inverse version of the 80s religious right as far as trying to curtail freedom of speech and socially engineer whereas the right presents a more existential danger by virtue of its anti-science, denialist, brown-tech policies. Both of them lack fiscal restraint. They just blow their money on different things. The country is in dire need of a pragmatic centrist. Obama was as close as we've come to having one. Left of center to be sure but nowhere near as left as, let's say, Bernie Sanders. Centrists are hated by both extremes but without one the country will just see-saw from one extreme to the other with half the country threatening secession or civil war.

You were doing fine overall, except for a couple points.

1). The right doesn't own being anti-science, bad as they are on it in certain areas like climate change, evolution, etc. The left tends to carry plenty of the anti-science water for things like anti-GMO and anti-vaxxers ("educated" liberal types who think "the internet" re what they want to hear is better information than medicine). So like spending -- it's just which toys (ideas) certain classes of folks get emotional about.

2). Oops, I see I misread your take on Bernie Sanders. When I thought you were calling him centrist (you weren't of course), I thought you'd lost a gear. :)


Yeah, it's kind of sad that the extremes both tend to hate centrists, when centrists (IMO), tend overall, to be the only rational choice. What a mess modern society is getting to be re complexity and opposing interests.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 06 Mar 2020, 14:09:13

When you look at our "combined exposure" from the different crises (large and not-so-large) the world is facing now, are we at a pronounced heightened state for a black swan event to occur?

What will be the straw that broke the camel's back?

Some redundancies here, but just spelling them out. What else should be added to the list that at this moment could be a contributing factor?

- Covid-19 Pandemic
- potential for medical systems to be overwhelmed
- production disruptions
- supply chain disruptions
- shortages of critical necessities
- world stock markets plummeting
- stock market was artificially propped up to begin with
- economic activity disrupted
- economic shutdown deprives people of incomes
- stock market collapses destroys retirement savings
- US National debt at record high
- US consumer debt at record high
- US shale oil debt bubble bursts
- global trade disrupted
- China's $32 trillion debt bubble bursts
- large wealth gap
- politcal polarization

- African Swine Fever decimating hog populations in 40 different countries
- Worst Locust plague in 70 years affecting 20 different countries, poised to become worse
- Alaska cod fishery closed
- about to enter the melt phase of the arctic ice cap
- extreme/anomalous weather
- outrage over results of the upcoming US presidential election
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Mar 2020, 14:19:53

AZ just 1 big one missing. Large temperature spike as global economic collapse dilutes the blanket effect of global dimming. Research folks if you doubt this. This temp spike leading to massive crop failure
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 06 Mar 2020, 17:38:01

onlooker wrote:AZ just 1 big one missing. Large temperature spike as global economic collapse dilutes the blanket effect of global dimming. Research folks if you doubt this. This temp spike leading to massive crop failure


Yes. We may finally be able to get a measurement of the aerosol masking effect.
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