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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 21:46:20

copious.abundance wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Re the US treasury yield curve going positive in mid October, moving more strongly positive in November, and US treasury interest rates rising meaningfully, that would seem to put a big dent in the "US recession is certain and soon" argument...

If you look at charts of the yield curve compared to recession starts, you notice that it is sometime after the yield curve goes positive again that the recession begins.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
^
Be sure to expand the slider beneath the graph to go all the way to the left to see the entire history.

Recessions are shaded in gray. Notice that when the recession starts, the yield curve has already gone back positive for at least a few months, and often as much as a year.

Thus, if history repeats itself, we would probably not see a recession start until sometime next year.

If we do not get a recession until maybe sometime early in 2021 at the latest, I'll concede my thesis in this thread did not pan out.

Fair enough. Thanks for the explanation.

Like I said, unlike certain types on this site, you don't post frequent unsupported nonsense, and over time have a good track record, re your economic calls, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 01:44:08

Time for the November update (dated 21st November 2019).

THE TIME IS AT HAND (ie it seems very close now)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in October to 111.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in both September and August.

“The US LEI declined for a third consecutive month, and its six-month growth rate turned negative for the first time since May 2016. The decline was driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, average weekly hours, and unemployment insurance claims,”


Balancing the decline in the Leading Index, the Lagging Index had a small increase.

Neither seem to show dramatic changes, but it is not looking good going forward - only this is happening in slooooow motion.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE%20-%20NOVEMBER%202019.pdf
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 04:53:14

Neither seem to show dramatic changes, but it is not looking good going forward - only this is happening in slooooow motion.


Ring the recession bell (The time....has arrived) when the LEI is lower than the CEI. The LEI 6 month growth rate has touched zero for the 4th time since the current economic expansion began 10+ years ago.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 07:27:08

Facts come in and harsh the doomer buzz.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 19:42:47

marmico wrote:
Neither seem to show dramatic changes, but it is not looking good going forward - only this is happening in slooooow motion.


Ring the recession bell (The time....has arrived) when the LEI is lower than the CEI. The LEI 6 month growth rate has touched zero for the 4th time since the current economic expansion began 10+ years ago.

It does look like that would be the threshold on the chart, but I'm wondering if their crossing each other might just be a coincidence? When they've crossed over on the chart, that also happens to be when the CEI starts to turn lower (which is when the recession arrives). But if the CEI happened to start heading lower even if the LEI was still higher, seems to me that would still indicate a recession had probably begun.

After all, the purpose of the LEI is to anticipate future conditions, and the CEI is supposed to indicate current conditions. So once the CEI starts going lower, that would indicate the recession regardless of whether the LEI has crossed over it or not.

But I guess time will tell.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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