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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 15 Aug 2019, 17:40:46

Considering what this site is about may I remind everyone that an extended global recession will result in demand destruction and scale back consumption and CO2 emissions a zillion times more effectively than your most enlightened international climate accord.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Sys1 » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 11:54:07

Ibon : On the other hand, a recession prevents countries from shifting from oil intensive energy to renewable. After every recession, oil/gas prices are collapsing and weak economies look after cheap energy to rebuild their sick wallet. We are on the ondulating plateau since 2008, economy stands still with fake growth made of bitcoin/mercato/real estate/tech while standard of living are slowly going south. The ondulating plateau is a curse because we -even on peakoil- look around us and think at first sight that we are still in a business as usual position while the reality is that central banks are lending money quite close from 0% rates for 10 years in order to prevent the house of cards to collapse.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 22 Aug 2019, 09:06:04

The July 2019 Conference Board Leading Economic Index ticked up to 112.2, this business cycle all time high.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 20:32:55

Sys1 wrote:Ibon : On the other hand, a recession prevents countries from shifting from oil intensive energy to renewable. After every recession, oil/gas prices are collapsing and weak economies look after cheap energy to rebuild their sick wallet. We are on the ondulating plateau since 2008, economy stands still with fake growth made of bitcoin/mercato/real estate/tech while standard of living are slowly going south. The ondulating plateau is a curse because we -even on peakoil- look around us and think at first sight that we are still in a business as usual position while the reality is that central banks are lending money quite close from 0% rates for 10 years in order to prevent the house of cards to collapse.

Lumping all tech together and calling it the problem or something negative is INSANE.

Where do efficiencies come from? Tech. Like LED light bulbs, which based on the amount of light produced per unit of power, are 7.5 times as efficient as standard incandescent bulbs. Or fuel injectors, made possible by computers. Or any of a host of technologies allowing for more efficient machines from furnaces to desalinization.

And your argument re pursuing low energy costs is to the point -- better efficiencies will make energy cheaper per unit of work done. Just look at the fleet average MPG standards over time, for example. The biggest thing holding BEV's back is the cost to do the job real world in a competitive way with ICE's, over the life of the car. The job is difficult enough, that I believe transitional tech. like HEV's will play a FAR bigger role before BEV's come anywhere near being dominant.

So let's not confuse real estate bubbles and technology. It's counter-productive.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 19 Sep 2019, 09:14:12

It's time that copious abundance declared force majeure on his December 2018 gut bacteria prognostication that the sun is setting (economic expansions die of old age). :)

The unchanged but record high print of the September 2019 Conference Board Leading Economic Index says that the time....has not arrived.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf
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