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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 20:01:34

I can't quote myself in the thread linked below anymore because it's been locked.

But note my observation here, posted on May 24, 2017:
copious.abundance wrote:I think you probably have to wait some more before deciding whether or not that chart is really going to show a sustained downturn. It could still be a temporary halt that continues resuming upward. Even if all it did was go sideways for a while, still might not indicate a recession.

Furthermore, it's always a danger relying on just one indicator to predict a recession, because you never know when that one indicator might do something it's never done before. The best method is to devise an index composed of several indicators, such as this one here or this one here. Neither are flashing a recession in the next year or so. That said, I think most economic data nerds will probably agree we are somewhere in the late stages of the current cycle. But that could still mean more expansion for another two years, or more.

That was a year-and-a-half ago as i write this.

The sun, is setting.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 20:08:32

Modern Economies definitely function in cycles, seems Abundance you are agreeing this one is nearing its end
The vast imbalances created by 10 years of unceasing goosing will unleash a non-linear avalanche of reversions to the mean and rapid unwinding of extremes.



BY CHARLES HUGH SMITH
POSTED 
SEPTEMBER 15, 2018

The Next Financial Crisis Is Right on Schedule (2019)

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-next-fin ... dule-2019/
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 20:58:38

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index begs to differ.

https://www.conference-board.org/data/b ... .cfm?cid=1

And the Philly Fed agrees.

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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 21:09:33

Didn't say it was imminent, just that the sun is setting. And as one can see from that chart, the LEI can fall pretty quickly, as it did in 2000.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 22:02:33

Mr. Market is acting like a recession is coming.

Its down 800 points just today.

Cheers!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 22:12:14

GDP numbers tell a different story. The market doesn't like uncertainty and its reflected in a sell off. Trade uncertainty mostly. Most companies are reporting very good profits.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 23:14:40

The yield curve is also almost inverted....and Japan and several foreign countries fell into recession last quarter, perhaps signaling the start of a global recession.

Hopefully the US markets will shake this all off and power higher......but IMHO we'll be in recession here in the US in late 2019....just in time for the Ds to caterwaul about it all through the 2020 election season.

Cheers!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 00:26:05

Plantagenet wrote:just in time for the Ds to caterwaul about it all through the 2020 election season.


Just as you would if the tables were turned.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 02:40:27

asg70 wrote:...if the tables were turned.


If you wrong us, shall we not revenge?

---William Shakespeare

Cheers!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 08:58:15

As we see often here see, those with the most dogs in the fight have the highest level of confirmation bias and are unwilling to admit that their short-term prosperity is largely driven by juicing the economy with borrowed funny money and manufactured demand. They've convinced themselves that they have somehow earned all of their faux wealth, so they must know things the naysayers have missed.

Funny, that.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 09:04:26

GHung wrote:As we see often here see, those with the most dogs in the fight have the highest level of confirmation bias and are unwilling to admit that their short-term prosperity is largely driven by juicing the economy with borrowed funny money and manufactured demand. They've convinced themselves that they have somehow earned all of their faux wealth, so they must know things the naysayers have missed.

Funny, that.

Or more succinctly what goes up must come down. Anyway, we are whistling pass the graveyard. Industrial Civilization, aint going to make it pass this century
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 13:38:59

Plantagenet wrote:If you wrong us, shall we not revenge?


Nice to know party politics is your #1 priority despite the pending malthusian catastrophe.
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 14:27:48

The last 4 years house prices have near doubled in Melbourne, Australia. My mother has been on my case about buying (borrowing) in the record low rate loan period, offering 20% deposit, blabbing about how RE always goes up. Recently prices have dropped 10% in a few months, record low auction clearance rates, banking royal commission leading to tightening lending, near zero wage growth. My position has been that the price growth is all fake, based on funny money, & there's a big crash coming- a ride I can't be bothered riding. Her tune has changed to RE goes up & down, but in the long run always goes up- some clear failure in logic there for the people who bought at the top of the virtual zero rate cycle. I've been pointing to the facts of increasing fossil fuels use even in the most rapidly greening economies, & total lack of any system to deal with reverse growth. I've got completely out of debt, bought a reliable car (diesel Mercedes) & a yacht big enough to live on, small enough to sail single handed.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 14:40:11

Plantagenet wrote:The yield curve is also almost inverted....and Japan and several foreign countries fell into recession last quarter, perhaps signaling the start of a global recession.

Cheers!


Only a small part of the yield curve is inverted. When the entire yield curve, or the vast majortiy of the yield curve is inverted, over time, then that's a very significant indicator. Just the 5 yr. vs. 3 year briefly, not so much.

Where are you getting your data? The Guardian says Japan, France, and Germany were growing again in Q2 and other countries had "dodged" recession. The data seems mixed.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... lrecession

I'm not saying there will be no recession in coming quarters, but let's not exaggerate things and let's provide credible sources for such claims.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 14:42:27

Yep, collapse now and beat the rush
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 14:52:38

onlooker wrote:Yep, collapse now and beat the rush

But you and a broken clock say pretty much the same thing all the time -- so how is that useful at all?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 15:05:11

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:Yep, collapse now and beat the rush

But you and a broken clock say pretty much the same thing all the time -- so how is that useful at all?

How is it useful? What about getting out of debt, out of the Stock market, planting garden, becoming a member of a resilient community etc. etc.
Outcast it is not just PO, It is host of perils that are growing that should at the least motivate someone to not rely on the System but on oneself. Most of the perils threaten the system and mode of existence people are entrenched in. Money is a big part of the system and its value is getting ever more precarious
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 16:39:14

You can do self reliance, staying out of debt, AND stay in the market all at the same time. Call it multi-tasking or just understanding historical market trends.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 16:43:45

Outcast_Searcher wrote: The Guardian says Japan ...Germany..... growing again in Q2


???????

When discussing current economic trends, you have to pay attention to the calendar--- otherwise you wind up citing and relying on data that is old and out-of-date, as you've just done.

The second quarter ended in June---six months ago. We've already finished the THIRD quarter and are now almost though the FOURTH quarter of the economic year.

The most recent data we have is for the third quarter. And in the third quarter Japan's GDP shrank.

Japan-dip-gdp-caution-warranted

Also in the third quarter, Germany's GDP shrank

german-economy-shrinks-in-q3

The lesson to be learned here is not to rely solely on old, out-of-date economic data. Its always wise to check for the most recent economic data to evaluate what is happening in the economy now.

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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 17:42:51

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote: The Guardian says Japan ...Germany..... growing again in Q2


???????

When discussing current economic trends, you have to pay attention to the calendar--- otherwise you wind up citing and relying on data that is old and out-of-date, as you've just done.

The second quarter ended in June---six months ago. We've already finished the THIRD quarter and are now almost though the FOURTH quarter of the economic year.

The most recent data we have is for the third quarter. And in the third quarter Japan's GDP shrank.

Japan-dip-gdp-caution-warranted

Also in the third quarter, Germany's GDP shrank

german-economy-shrinks-in-q3

The lesson to be learned here is not to rely solely on old, out-of-date economic data. Its always wise to check for the most recent economic data to evaluate what is happening in the economy now.

Cheers!

Given the random stuff you post and claim, whining about data a few months old is laughable, but thanks for playing. Note that I didn't say you're wrong. I asked you where you're getting your data.

Reading comprehension is a thing, but thanks for actually providing citations.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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