[ralfy]

Which reality?

That the world we think exists is largely an illusion made possible by borrowing from the future, and thinking infinite growth can continue in a finite world.

So first you construct a global strawman (the world thinks) and then pull out another claim that has been discredited by the business cycle multiple times per century, if not decade (infinite growth)? That isn't even your idea, it was a Ruppert fav I believe, meant as a red meat line for the faithful, them who can be counted on to not think about it amidst the cheering for their prophet of doom rock star.

Down around claim/paragraph #10

http://independentreport.blogspot.com/2 ... k-oil.html

If you want to build the conclusions you claim to be making, you can at least use your own words on the topic, and leave all the strawmen out of it.

The universe is a pretty big place, and some folks have already been left with plenty of egg on their faces when they pretend that the application of price and by extension technology doesn't exist. Just ask Malthus. Or Ehrlich.

Like right now, one of the silliest investments someone could have made was for, as an example, building a well insulated home, trading their SUV for a econoobox, buying a scooter, etc etc. Of what use is conservation when supplies for our lifetime are assured?

Oh, so the super insulated home I just built was a silly investment? Got it.

Depends on what you paid to insulate it I suppose, doing a NPV calculation is relatively easy for anyone who can use Excel, or has a calculator and pencil and paper.

For example, those who bought their own personal peak oil solutions, be it more insulation or a hybrid, are now being hammered in that calculation by low prices. The CapX increase just can't be easily made back with slightly lower OpX in a low price environment.

Do the math.

Supplies for our lifetime are assured? Got it.

Sure. Perhaps you've missed the more recent work on that topic, but some world class energy economists haven't, and are asking some pretty good questions about how badly peak demand will pistol whip the supply side, and then we can leave the stuff in the ground.

One of the most interesting things that peak oilers have ever done was pretend that only supply matters, when in fact oil prices and length of availability is a calculation between TWO, count'im TWO, non-linear curves. Basic Econ, yet missed when peak oil happened in 2000. Or 2005. Or 2006. Or 2008. Or now. Or whatever, the point is, if you don't account for the interaction of those two curves, you make ridiculous projections that look like this:

Straight from wiki:



I recommend reading the work of real experts when it comes to these kinds of things, they certainly know more than the various bloggers or social commentators do. And in all seriousness, the economists mostly had all the pieces of this right all along, perhaps because they do understands those interacting non linear curves I referred to.

http://eec.ucdavis.edu/highlight/why-th ... peak-soon/

It is highly unlikely that the oil demand will peak soon as most people are poor and very likely don't want to remain poor. In order to meet their needs and even wants, not only the amount of oil but energy and material resources needed will have to be many times higher than what is available:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22956470

That's why the current production "revolution" is merely a blip.

The catch is that such needs cannot happen in a world with physical limitations:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

Worse, even a low ecological footprint may already be overshoot for the current population, which will continue to grow:

https://theconversation.com/if-everyone ... uble-43905

[MonteQuest]

For now, the only "ingenuity" present is being negated by diminishing returns.

And financed with ever increasing debt.

[Revi]

I think there's the peak of the easy stuff, then the economic peak, or the peak of what we can make with unlimited debt. All the unconventional stuff will prove to be uneconomical as Hubbert and Simmons predicted. It's helped push it back almost a decade, but it won't keep the peak from happening.

[onlooker]

I think there's the peak of the easy stuff, then the economic peak, or the peak of what we can make with unlimited debt. All the unconventional stuff will prove to be uneconomical as Hubbert and Simmons predicted. It's helped push it back almost a decade, but it won't keep the peak from happening.

That is because we are bumping against hard limits which all the ingenuity and cleverness in the world cannot circumvent or bypass.

[AdamB]

Care to provide a link to support that spurious claim?

Just because you aren't familiar with it, doesn't make it spurious. And you can't even claim it is spurious, without having seen it, as spurious implies fake. Unsubstantiated, sure, but not spurious.

No link. Spurious.

Are you familiar with a dictionary? And the concept that it contains words, and their definitions? And that when you use these words, it is generally agreed upon that we all accept the definitions to the words?

Seriously, they don't use dictionaries in ecologist school?

[AdamB]

I think there's the peak of the easy stuff, then the economic peak, or the peak of what we can make with unlimited debt. All the unconventional stuff will prove to be uneconomical as Hubbert and Simmons predicted. It's helped push it back almost a decade, but it won't keep the peak from happening.

That is because we are bumping against hard limits which all the ingenuity and cleverness in the world cannot circumvent or bypass.

That is nearly EXACTLY what was said about peak oil, a decade ago.

And then it turned out that there are no limits to human ingenuity and technological growth yet, and a trip to your local gas station will help you quantify exactly how much such things can save you, one tank of fuel at a time.

[Tanada]

For those who want to mine back the first part of this series is,
topic8374.html

[onlooker]

Yes Adam not YET.

[Subjectivist]

Sometimes I feel like one more campaigne lie by some candidate is proof that Peak Oil will be a blessing. Then I remember politicians were still around in Ancient Babylon and the ancient Moche and ancient Hmong civilizations.

[taw]

Hmm, I hadn't seen this thread.

Gotta go with Rockman on this one. I was married in the southern Philippines long ago, in a contested area. Looking straight down the end of a rifle barrel as you go through a checkpoint is, umm, educational.

Since then my wife has had 11 family members or friends murdered, two of them beheaded.

I've always wondered since why life is so good here, but so tenuous there. Actually, the people there do too. They have pointed out that our lifestyle does not come with a warranty.

[sparky]

.
I've always though that the worth of a life was its energy budget , for the top people , third world or medieval peasants are worth nothing much more than their daily food intake ,
samurais used to test their swords edges on passing-by yokels ,
French lords were "born" , the common was just bred , like a beast , but worth less

[onlooker]

I concur with those saying that we need to get off FF use. The question has always been how to avoid as much as possible disruptions and hardships for the masses. At this point I do not believe we can avoid any of that. Nevertheless, we still must prepare for life without abundant cheap energy

[Ibon]

The question has always been how to avoid as much as possible disruptions and hardships for the masses.

Once the wealth pump of capitalism dries up because of constraints, the consumer, the masses, turn from an asset to a liability. A huge liability in a constraining world. Why should the elites, trying to preserve their tenuous privilege, have a goal to avoid as much possible hardship for the masses? Where is their incentive to make life easy for a huge population that no longer aids them in increasing their wealth.

I pose this question to accentuate the social upheaval that is rising. I can't help put this in the context of the rise of Donald Trump among the disenfranchised uneducated white voters in America who represent "the masses" who are currently suffering "hardships"

These early days we are not seeing those suffering most choosing enlightened leaders.

[onlooker]

True Ibon. The perspective though continues to be brandied by politicians. Of course this was and is a type of fools gold preventing substantive and necessary changes from taking place. This fools gold was an easy selling point because of its appeal to the masses. BAU and the "American Dream" continuously promised but less and less delivered to the masses. For a good measure of the impact of the US on the global economy, its been stated that the US was about half the total world economy right after WWII

[KaiserJeep]

Ibon, my definition of a tragedy in Washington DC is having a street lamp or a sturdy tree without a politician dangling from it in a noose.

Don't think they don't know it, either. The two #1 candidates for the noose are named Clinton and Trump. Trump gets a pardon if he loses, Clinton (and her husband) are condemned already for past deeds. The only thing scarier than Clinton as POTUS is Clinton as POTUS after she has declared Martial Law and named herself "presidente for life" as did Idi Amin Dada.

Just to make it clear, I DO NOT want Peak Oil to happen, because of the human suffering it will cause. Like that matters, because PO for conventional wells happened years ago IMHO. The unconventional sources of petroleum are preserving BAU while people without two thoughts to rub together in their skulls, but who accept the responsibility of a citizen to vote, are reduced to political ideology and are desperately trying to convince themselves they have other motives than that one.

Call me an optimist if you will. I still think that for some Americans, there is hope, and we may yet modify our dreams but still possess them in a more energy-constrained future. But I believe the city dwellers are well and truly toasted. The rural dwellers will prosper and the suburbs will become places where life is short and savage, and within sight of the bones of the cities.

[DesuMaiden]

Peak oil will likely mitigate run-away AGW, but AGW is still going to happen regardless of when or how severe peak oil may be. There is a 40 year lag between greenhouse gas emissions and change in climate. And during the past 40 ought years we burned more fossil fuels and released more greenhouse gases than the previous 200 years of the industrial revolution combined. So expect major climate change to happen even if peak oil and the collapse of industrial civilization happens. But only with a quick end to industrial activity can runaway AGW and its devasting consequences be mitigated to a certain extent.

Regardless, peak oil will destroy civilization, and cripple our ability to grow and distribute food. And human-induced climate change will only make weather patterns more unstable and unfavorable for growing sufficient food to feed our growing population. So I don't want peaik oil to happen because it will destroy civilization, but AGW is not favorable either.

About the only positive thing I can think of that peak oil will bring is the end of automobiles and the car accidents and pollution they create. Peak oil means automobiles become obsolete meaning no more car accidents, pollution and other problems related to automobiles.

I don't want peqk oil and the resulting collapse of industrial civilization to happen, but hey look on the brightside...at least it means no more car accidents and deaths resulting from that!

[efarmer]

I can take some comfort in that I suppose Desumaiden, but not having any sheet metal around me when a drunk comes flying down the road, rear ends my animal, and creates an 11 horse pile up, would still be a high pucker factor situation.

[Revi]

I don't really want it to happen, but it has to happen. I really would be fine if nothing happens, but that is not an option now. We are headed for real trouble whatever happens. Call it whatever you want, but the peak of a lot of things is right around now. We have nowhere to go but down. People climb mountains to ski down them. The downslope is really exciting. Maybe too exciting!

[dbruning]

Want it to happen? Nope.

I'm unable to see a solution to the current population/pollution/energy/food problem we currently have. The population one itself is one of the main roots of all the others...and I simply don't see a way to fix it that isn't draconian, ruthless, and evil. And without our population plummeting, the other problems just get worse and worse.

I'm hoping others, smarter than myself, can come up with a way forward that doesn't cook the planet or decimate the people.

Not confident, but hoping.