[ennui2]

Your arrogance prevents you from realizing that you also have "motivated reasoning".

When I start ignoring facts, refusing to debate the merits, and use hand wave dismissals as my rebuttal MO like you, then you might have a case.

I don't ignore facts. I take issue with your conclusions.

[AdamB]

This desire to spin the present as worse than it is is all borne by cassandras who can't stand waiting around for doom to really set in, and so they have to try to do their mental gymnastics to convince everyone that it's worse than it really is.

Shows how little you know about me or any agenda I might have. Of course, it's worse than it seems. To say otherwise, is to deny reality.

Denying reality is ignoring the claims that were made for peak oil, the desire for it to happen as the OP mentioned, and the complete lack of readjustment when it turns out that peak oil meant no peak oil and lower prices.

Which all of us can enjoy, even if those or desire peak oil can't stand the idea that it was even possible, or how far off their sources of information were on the topic. Sort of like Ehrlich and how badly his knowledge about ecology did in light of human ingenuity, as it related to food production. He couldn't be bothered to learn why Malthus had gotten it wrong, so he just recycled a bad idea and was soon hung by his own petard.

[AdamB]

This desire to spin the present as worse than it is is all borne by cassandras who can't stand waiting around for doom to really set in, and so they have to try to do their mental gymnastics to convince everyone that it's worse than it really is.

Shows how little you know about me or any agenda I might have. Of course, it's worse than it seems. To say otherwise, is to deny reality.

Which reality? That based on peak oil that didn't turn out the way it was hoped for (and I do mean HOPED for, which fits in nicely with the OP), or those who didn't get it right then going for another bite at the apple?

Like right now, one of the silliest investments someone could have made was for, as an example, building a well insulated home, trading their SUV for a econoobox, buying a scooter, etc etc. Of what use is conservation when supplies for our lifetime are assured? Peak oil sold fear, some people like that, and/or just hate people in general, or the consequences of people living, or maybe they just don't like those of color, or immigrants, and peak oil WAS a great way to get rid of undesireables, never figuring it would get them as well.

You refer to ecology quite a bit, which has nothing to do with oil that I can tell, but let us take some ecologist type like Catton, and his famous book. The guy hated immigrants, he tells this entire story online about seeing brown faces in other cars when he was vacationing in Oregon, and at that point in time realized that all those brown folks breeding would be the downfall of humanity. But he probably wasn't think humanity, he was thinking "spoiled american white folks who don't want brown folks becoming legal and cluttering up our cool national parks and monuments". And then this event dovetailed nicely with first a listing of all the techno wonders of man, but now, in his lfietime, they must all stop, because of these breeding brown people.

While no one should judge him based on his racist tendencies, it does beg the question, how much of his "ecology" was really ecology, and how much of it was a rationalization for how he felt about brown people invading his country?

[tita]

Of what use is conservation when supplies for our lifetime are assured?

Such a good question! And probably the key to understand the question of the topic.

The lack of need of conservation is quite recent in human history. I'm not talking about oil, but the stuff we use everyday. In Western societies, our way of life just changed from conservative living to expensive living. My grandfather used to switch off lights when not necessary, because electricity was expensive. You had to use wood cautiously in winter, not heating too much. Furniture lasted a lifetime at least. Clothes were expensive. Travelling was expensive. Food was not always available, especially meat and cheese. And so on. The XXth century just turned this upside down, giving the freedom to move on much more easily, and on your own. Life is cheap... And the last generation, called generation Y, integrated this notion plentyfully. They just know don't know why we should be conservative. The "fears" on ecology or peak oil have no meaning to them. Why should they live on fear when we didn't.

Oil represent this way of life. By making the transport of goods and people, we turned our world into a giant market where everything is available... Cheap transport, fuel, material, whatever. So why do people are so desperate to see the end of this?

For my part, it's because I think the expensive way of life is wrong. I don't believe in the well being in materiality. Sure, it helps to have food on the table everyday, and a roof over me. But the over-consumption we live right now looks like an over-destruction of the negentropy we received from earth. Through peak oil, I hope we would give more value to the living, and less value to the cheap stuff we exchange each year at Christmas.

Of course, I'm not interested in the die-off. I fear the consequences, but I also believe in humanity.

[MonteQuest]

Which reality?

That the world we think exists is largely an illusion made possible by borrowing from the future, and thinking infinite growth can continue in a finite world.

Like right now, one of the silliest investments someone could have made was for, as an example, building a well insulated home, trading their SUV for a econoobox, buying a scooter, etc etc. Of what use is conservation when supplies for our lifetime are assured?

Oh, so the super insulated home I just built was a silly investment? Got it.

Supplies for our lifetime are assured? Got it.

[MonteQuest]

You refer to ecology quite a bit, which has nothing to do with oil that I can tell, but let us take some ecologist type like Catton, and his famous book. The guy hated immigrants, he tells this entire story online about seeing brown faces in other cars when he was vacationing in Oregon, and at that point in time realized that all those brown folks breeding would be the downfall of humanity.

I have read everything he has ever written and recall no racists rants.

Care to provide a link to support that spurious claim?

Peak oil is symptom of Overshoot and the limits to growth.

[tita]

Tita, does your home planet still enjoy abundant copper, tungsten, helium, phosphorus reserves? Are salmon still running in the canals? Or are you guys like seriously offworld? Avatar? Living in the Moombeams?

For short: I was just answering the question of the topic by telling we just switched from conservative to corny in the XXth century, and consuming like there is no tomorrow, which is not sustainable of course. I just made it long, and disserted on various stuff.

So, if you like to judge people without reading them, and get off topics, just do as you want.

[ennui2]

I don't distinguish the thoughtless plague of unnecessary manufactured stuff from the destruction that manufacture causes.

Exhibit A for why some are so desperate for Peak Oil to happen. The ideological axes being ground are pretty obvious.

[AdamB]

Which reality?

That the world we think exists is largely an illusion made possible by borrowing from the future, and thinking infinite growth can continue in a finite world.

So first you construct a global strawman (the world thinks) and then pull out another claim that has been discredited by the business cycle multiple times per century, if not decade (infinite growth)? That isn't even your idea, it was a Ruppert fav I believe, meant as a red meat line for the faithful, them who can be counted on to not think about it amidst the cheering for their prophet of doom rock star.

Down around claim/paragraph #10

http://independentreport.blogspot.com/2 ... k-oil.html

If you want to build the conclusions you claim to be making, you can at least use your own words on the topic, and leave all the strawmen out of it.

The universe is a pretty big place, and some folks have already been left with plenty of egg on their faces when they pretend that the application of price and by extension technology doesn't exist. Just ask Malthus. Or Ehrlich.

Like right now, one of the silliest investments someone could have made was for, as an example, building a well insulated home, trading their SUV for a econoobox, buying a scooter, etc etc. Of what use is conservation when supplies for our lifetime are assured?

Oh, so the super insulated home I just built was a silly investment? Got it.

Depends on what you paid to insulate it I suppose, doing a NPV calculation is relatively easy for anyone who can use Excel, or has a calculator and pencil and paper.

For example, those who bought their own personal peak oil solutions, be it more insulation or a hybrid, are now being hammered in that calculation by low prices. The CapX increase just can't be easily made back with slightly lower OpX in a low price environment.

Do the math.

Supplies for our lifetime are assured? Got it.

Sure. Perhaps you've missed the more recent work on that topic, but some world class energy economists haven't, and are asking some pretty good questions about how badly peak demand will pistol whip the supply side, and then we can leave the stuff in the ground.

One of the most interesting things that peak oilers have ever done was pretend that only supply matters, when in fact oil prices and length of availability is a calculation between TWO, count'im TWO, non-linear curves. Basic Econ, yet missed when peak oil happened in 2000. Or 2005. Or 2006. Or 2008. Or now. Or whatever, the point is, if you don't account for the interaction of those two curves, you make ridiculous projections that look like this:

Straight from wiki:



I recommend reading the work of real experts when it comes to these kinds of things, they certainly know more than the various bloggers or social commentators do. And in all seriousness, the economists mostly had all the pieces of this right all along, perhaps because they do understands those interacting non linear curves I referred to.

http://eec.ucdavis.edu/highlight/why-th ... peak-soon/

[AdamB]

You refer to ecology quite a bit, which has nothing to do with oil that I can tell, but let us take some ecologist type like Catton, and his famous book. The guy hated immigrants, he tells this entire story online about seeing brown faces in other cars when he was vacationing in Oregon, and at that point in time realized that all those brown folks breeding would be the downfall of humanity.

I have read everything he has ever written and recall no racists rants.

I don't know that it was written. I might have found that one on an old interview he did, that had since been converted to You Tube. And I didn't say it was a racist rant, only that the brown people had made quite an impression on a young man.

Care to provide a link to support that spurious claim?

Just because you aren't familiar with it, doesn't make it spurious. And you can't even claim it is spurious, without having seen it, as spurious implies fake. Unsubstantiated, sure, but not spurious.

Peak oil is symptom of Overshoot and the limits to growth.

That is a conclusion. One you pretend is factual in nature, when it is no more factual than the claims that Malthus made. Or Ehrlich. Except of course they are famous, and became famously wrong.

Can you tell us, "is about to" measured in multiple decade time scales, or perhaps centuries?

post18113.html?hilit=peak#p18113

[MonteQuest]

Which reality?

That the world we think exists is largely an illusion made possible by borrowing from the future, and thinking infinite growth can continue in a finite world.

So first you construct a global strawman (the world thinks) and then pull out another claim that has been discredited by the business cycle multiple times per century, if not decade (infinite growth)?

Strawman? Infinite growth can continue in a finite world? Got it.

[MonteQuest]

Care to provide a link to support that spurious claim?

Just because you aren't familiar with it, doesn't make it spurious. And you can't even claim it is spurious, without having seen it, as spurious implies fake. Unsubstantiated, sure, but not spurious.

No link. Spurious.

[MonteQuest]

I don't ignore facts. I take issue with your conclusions.

By hand-waving them away.

[MonteQuest]

Denying reality is ignoring the claims that were made for peak oil, the desire for it to happen as the OP mentioned, and the complete lack of readjustment when it turns out that peak oil meant no peak oil and lower prices.

I haven't any claims to ignore. The financial crash of 2008 just kicked PO down the road a bit by knocking 8mbpd to 9mbpd from consumption. And this low price/oil glut is just a short blip up in the chart. Unexpected, yes, but hardly a game changer.

[ralfy]

Denying reality is ignoring the claims that were made for peak oil, the desire for it to happen as the OP mentioned, and the complete lack of readjustment when it turns out that peak oil meant no peak oil and lower prices.

Which all of us can enjoy, even if those or desire peak oil can't stand the idea that it was even possible, or how far off their sources of information were on the topic. Sort of like Ehrlich and how badly his knowledge about ecology did in light of human ingenuity, as it related to food production. He couldn't be bothered to learn why Malthus had gotten it wrong, so he just recycled a bad idea and was soon hung by his own petard.

The first phrase of your first paragraph contradicts the last phrase. Also, peak oil <> low prices. That was explained to you very clearly in another thread.

It's also not a matter of "desiring" peak oil but understanding that it is a fact. For it to be otherwise, one has to prove that oil is an infinite resource.

As for ecology, food production, etc., it's not so much ingenuity that will matter as the same ingenuity leading to continuous growth in a planet with physical limitations, which is actually the main driver of peak oil:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

For now, the only "ingenuity" present is being negated by diminishing returns.

[ralfy]

Which reality? That based on peak oil that didn't turn out the way it was hoped for (and I do mean HOPED for, which fits in nicely with the OP), or those who didn't get it right then going for another bite at the apple?

Like right now, one of the silliest investments someone could have made was for, as an example, building a well insulated home, trading their SUV for a econoobox, buying a scooter, etc etc. Of what use is conservation when supplies for our lifetime are assured? Peak oil sold fear, some people like that, and/or just hate people in general, or the consequences of people living, or maybe they just don't like those of color, or immigrants, and peak oil WAS a great way to get rid of undesireables, never figuring it would get them as well.

You refer to ecology quite a bit, which has nothing to do with oil that I can tell, but let us take some ecologist type like Catton, and his famous book. The guy hated immigrants, he tells this entire story online about seeing brown faces in other cars when he was vacationing in Oregon, and at that point in time realized that all those brown folks breeding would be the downfall of humanity. But he probably wasn't think humanity, he was thinking "spoiled american white folks who don't want brown folks becoming legal and cluttering up our cool national parks and monuments". And then this event dovetailed nicely with first a listing of all the techno wonders of man, but now, in his lfietime, they must all stop, because of these breeding brown people.

While no one should judge him based on his racist tendencies, it does beg the question, how much of his "ecology" was really ecology, and how much of it was a rationalization for how he felt about brown people invading his country?

The problem with the claim that oil prices would rise significantly is that it was never considered that most would not be able to afford oil at such prices. That's why when oil prices shot up several years ago, it eventually crashed together with other commodities, shipping, and the global economy as a whole.

But because oil production costs went up because of peak oil, then prices had to go up eventually, and they did. While consumption for the U.S., the EU, and Japan dropped because of financial crises, the rest of the world consumed more because they needed oil to meet various needs.

But the same global economy cannot afford high prices in the long term, which is why there is now the threat of another global financial crisis. This explains why not just oil prices but commodity markets have been faltering, stock markets volatile, and shipping indices falling.

Again, all of these were explained to you carefully in another thread.

[ralfy]

Such a good question! And probably the key to understand the question of the topic.

The lack of need of conservation is quite recent in human history. I'm not talking about oil, but the stuff we use everyday. In Western societies, our way of life just changed from conservative living to expensive living. My grandfather used to switch off lights when not necessary, because electricity was expensive. You had to use wood cautiously in winter, not heating too much. Furniture lasted a lifetime at least. Clothes were expensive. Travelling was expensive. Food was not always available, especially meat and cheese. And so on. The XXth century just turned this upside down, giving the freedom to move on much more easily, and on your own. Life is cheap... And the last generation, called generation Y, integrated this notion plentyfully. They just know don't know why we should be conservative. The "fears" on ecology or peak oil have no meaning to them. Why should they live on fear when we didn't.

Oil represent this way of life. By making the transport of goods and people, we turned our world into a giant market where everything is available... Cheap transport, fuel, material, whatever. So why do people are so desperate to see the end of this?

For my part, it's because I think the expensive way of life is wrong. I don't believe in the well being in materiality. Sure, it helps to have food on the table everyday, and a roof over me. But the over-consumption we live right now looks like an over-destruction of the negentropy we received from earth. Through peak oil, I hope we would give more value to the living, and less value to the cheap stuff we exchange each year at Christmas.

Of course, I'm not interested in the die-off. I fear the consequences, but I also believe in humanity.

Many of the points you raised are part of the lives of most people worldwide. That's because most earn less than $10 a day, with many earning only around $3 daily.