[Specop_007]

"500 thousand million tonnes"

Thats alot of rock.

[PenultimateManStanding]

One of the Sumatran survivors said that the Ocean was sucked out to sea leaving the shoreline exposed. 50 minutes later the tsunami hit. So if you ever see that the ocean is pulling way back all of a sudden, better get out of there.

[gg3]

Right. The solution to LaPalma is obvious: Controlled demolition. Blast it into the sea in small pieces.

Consider how blasting is done for highway construction: drill the shot holes, plant the charges, fire 'em off, shovel out the shot rock, repeat until there's a nice wide cut through a mountain, and then the road can go through. All of this can be substantially automated, and the equipment operated from a safe distance via remote control.

In the case of LaPalma, there's no need to shovel out the shot rock, because it would plop into the ocean as it was blasted loose. So a major portion of the work needed for a normal civil engineering blast/dig operation, the portion that requires the most time, labor, and use of heavy equipment, is not needed.

The cost of a 24/7 blasting operation can be calculated, along with the number of days needed to whittle the mountain away, and it would be a small price to pay for an "insurance policy" that would prevent a catastrophic release and the resulting tsunami. This is not rocket science.

Now the question is, can we get Bechtel or some such company interested in the project?

[gg3]

KiddieKorral and Big_rc: thanks:-) All too often, the Christian voice of compassion, love, and forgiveness gets drowned out by the Religiously Correct clamor of righteousness and vengeance. After all, Christian activism and the Republican party were responsible for the abolition of slavery. How far we've fallen since then. The Catholic power structure is utterly corrupt (conspiracy to conceal child molestation on an enormous scale), the Evangelical power structure is nearly as bad (Dominionism, the American Taliban), and I think it's time to stand up to that, speak truth to power, and turn it around. Each of the world's faiths has much to learn from the others; and therein is the path toward progress and peace.

Re. the cost of fighting terrorism vs. the cost of preventing natural disasters: It's not an either/or. We have the capability to do both. I would be willing to bet that the special tax-break for new SUVs adds up to more than enough money to install a global early warning system for tsunamis.

Even the simple measure of educating people to follow their animals when the animals suddenly jump up and run away, would save lives.

But let's not keep fighting the last war. Today a tsunami, tomorrow something else. And in the meantime, the human population continues its relentless increase, as clv101 said, 250,000 people per day.

Common sense says: If we decrease the death rate, we must decrease the birth rate even more.

Therefore, all forms of foreign aid whose goal is to decrease deaths, should be tied to a requirement for programs that decrease births.

Otherwise, we are building a Malthusian tidal-wave of world-wrecking proportions.

[MonteQuest]

So, answer me TWO simple question.
Why didnt these countries have a tsunami warning system?
Why is it Americas responsibility to provide a tsunami warning system for them?

That's not the question. Given a choice, you said we could buy the end of terrorism, but not prevent earthquake disasters. That was your priority choice. The question then becomes, do you or do we have our priorites right given that the latter is a pipe dream, with few killed compared to natural disasters that we can't prevent but can forewarn? But to answer your last question directly, because it would be the moral and right thing to do, given our abundance and their abject poverty, for the most part.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

They can't do a controlled demolition or won't rather. Here is a quote from another forum from some who explains it a lot better than I could

If it's true that this chunk is Isle-of-Man size, it's at least 16 km by 48 km (let's round it to 20 km by 50 km to give us a safety factor). This page says the island's (maximum) elevation is 2400 m -- let's take an average of 1200 for the sake of argument.

So we're talking about dislodging and moving -- presumably through blasting -- something like 20,000 m * 50,000 m * 1,200 m, or 1.2 x 1012 m3, that is 1.2 trillion cubic metres of rock, or say around 3.25 trillion (metric) tonnes.

IANAE*, but so far as I know, this kind of rock movement -- that is, controlled rock movement -- would constitute engineering on a scale so far unprecedented on this planet.

By way of comparison, the largest open pit copper mine in the world, Chuquicamata, has a surface area of around 8,000,000 m2, and a depth of 680 m. I can't find an estimate of the volume of rock taken out of there, but assuming it had straight sides -- which obviously it does not -- the rock taken out of there would have had a maximum volume of about 5.44 x 109, that is 5.4 billion m3, or three orders of magnitude less than the chunk at La Palma. The true figure is probably very much less -- and that's in a mine that's been operating since 1915.

So bringing down the La Palma "chunk" -- again, in a controlled fashion -- would likely take decades at the very least, at a cost on the order of eleventy bazillion dollars.

It's no wonder no-one wants to contemplate doing this based on a probability of collapse no-one, so far as I know, has yet estimated with any credibility. Particularly as it's an inhabited island. I hadn't even begun to think about the the cost, or the logistics, of relocating the population.

I think most everyone is banking on it not falling (ever). Some say it will but there are always those who deny that possibility.

Did you know they say that although optomists live longer, pessimists are better gamblers. I wonder what that says for all the pessimists on this board.

[Specop_007]

So, answer me TWO simple question.
Why didnt these countries have a tsunami warning system?
Why is it Americas responsibility to provide a tsunami warning system for them?

That's not the question. Given a choice, you said we could buy the end of terrorism, but not prevent earthquake disasters. That was your priority choice. The question then becomes, do you or do we have our priorites right given that the latter is a pipe dream, with few killed compared to natural disasters that we can't prevent but can forewarn? But to answer your last question directly, because it would be the moral and right thing to do, given our abundance and their abject poverty, for the most part.

No, no thats not what I said. I said we could prevent some crazy person from strapping a bomb on themselves and blowing up something. We cant END terrorism, we can work to prevent it.
Nothing we have to day, and nothing we have in the next 20 years will stop on earthquake. Just because we understand plate movements doesnt mean we can control them, nor should we try.
So, why should America spend money for a Tsunami warning system for Asia. Why not, say, Britian? Or Germany? Or France? Why not the UN, they like to play world peacekeeper. Why is it always automatically assumed that America should be the one to foot the bill for every little project across the world? I dont see anyone clamoring for Canada to set up a warning system for Tsunami's in Asia.
More to the point, why didnt Asia have one. These things arent that expensive in the big scheme of things so its inexcusable that the Asian countries didnt have one in place.

[Specop_007]

We have a early warning system here in the Pacific because we usually have the money to build it. This is U.S and Japan for instance who are developed industrialized countries.

However in developing poor countries, I don't think the governments have the financial resources nor the technology to build such a warning system.

Anyone see the connection, there are usually more deaths in a disaster in a developing country than a developed industrialized country?

I still believe they arent that expensive to biuld (Certinaly you or me couldnt fund it of course). But I would think a combined effort by India, Sri Lanka, Thialand and Indonesia would EASILY be able to set in place one of the most advanced warning systems in the world. Especially considering the Indian ocean isnt as big as the pacific, and there seems to be a pretty good system in place there.
While this is a tragedy of near unprecedented scale, its a tragedy which could have been prevented by the governments of the countries involved. Its not Amercias responsibility, its not the UN's responsibility, its not Britain or Canadas, its not Saudi Arabia or Mexico's responsibility to see there is a Tsunami warning system in the Indian ocean. Its the Asian countries.

[dmtu]

I have to agree with inconnu. I have witnessed deep hole shots conceived to control a mining slough. To the chagrin of the engineers who dumped tons of ANFO into those holes, when all was said and done the surveying prisms indicated perhaps a couple of tenths movement. The slough let go about six years after that shot. you can see pictures
here. For perspective each bench is 45' high.

Cast blasting would require vertical walls to be truly effective and even then the material would still need to be removed from the toe before each successive blast.

As much as we would like to control our environment there are just some things out of reach, PO(?), caldera volcanos and asteroids come to mind.

[k_semler]

114,763 Confirmed Dead from Tsunami

"New figures reveal at least 114,000 people died in Sunday's ocean disaster, as aid agencies struggle to provide relief to the Indian Ocean region.

...

Millions who survived the waves now have little water, food or shelter.

Relief teams and supplies are pouring into the region but have yet to reach the hardest-hit and most remote areas.

There are reports of desperate people fighting over aid. Aftershocks and fears of new tsunamis have sown panic among survivors in Indonesia and India.

Across the region thousands remain unaccounted for since the 9.0 magnitude undersea earthquake off Sumatra that forced a wall of water smashing into coastlines as far away as east Africa.

...

Officials of the World Health Organization say as many as five million people are at risk throughout the region because they are unable to get water, food or adequate sanitation.

Several countries have seen their infrastructure shattered; countless roads and bridges have been swept away. "


1. Indonesia: 79,940
2. Sri Lanka: 24,743
3. India (inc Andaman and Nicobar Is): 7,330
4. Thailand: 2,394
5. Somalia: 120
6. Burma: 90
7. Maldives: 67
8. Malaysia: 65
9. Tanzania: 10
10. Seychelles: 1
11. Bangladesh: 2
12. Kenya: 1

[fastbike]

I still believe they arent that expensive to biuld (Certinaly you or me couldnt fund it of course). But I would think a combined effort by India, Sri Lanka, Thialand and Indonesia would EASILY be able to set in place one of the most advanced warning systems in the world. Especially considering the Indian ocean isnt as big as the pacific .

I heard an NOAA spokesman yesterday describing the 3 essential parts of a tsunami warning system:
- sensors
- reliable communication system
- a populace educated to respond to the warnings.

He said the first 2 were relatively easy but item 3 was the hard part.
We even had reports in the media here of victims going down to the coast to see the wave. Who knows if these reports are credible though.

[Ayoob_Reloaded]

I don't think you're going to see a whole lot of problems with #3 anymore.

[gg3]

Interesting stuff, dmtu. I take it some of the subsequent pictures were of the mine site restored after mineral extraction was complete?

Agreed it's an enormous amount of rock to blow up & bring down.

ANFO is a "slow" explosive, like a slow dynamite; it's more useful for heaving action than for fracturing rock.

So then, how'bout some nice high explosives (high-velocity shockwaves)? Or better yet a combined approach, where high explosives are used to fracture the rock, and slow explosives are set off immediately after, to heave it away from the workface? Think of it as a bang followed immediately by a shove:-).

I'm not sure I agree about clearing the toe. Think in terms of angle of repose of the pile. Even assuming 50% swell from bank measure to bulk, each new batch that's blasted free will come to rest on the pile. Eventually one comes to the point where the new material is basically being broken in place. OK, that's just fine: when you get through enough of it, what you have is a nice big wall of gravel (so to speak) blocking further movement of additional material away from its initial location. So if an earthquake hits, the remainder of the island merely goes *mush* into a big pile of gravel, dissipating the force harmlessly.

On the other hand, there is another possible solution if all else fails. One or more nuclear explosives (in this context they're not "weapons"), or perhaps a string of them appropriately timed to go off in sequence.

Yes, that would mean a fallout problem. I'll take the certainty of a few weeks of radiation rather than the probability of a 150-foot-high wall of water hitting the entire East Coast at a three-figure rate of speed.

As for the people who are living there now: they would die in the earthquake, so they should be relocated now, for their own good.

[gg3]

Re. #3, yes, that problem will recur in another generation or so. Cultural memory being what it is, or rather, isn't.

They already *had* a warning system, when their animals started going bonkers and running inland.

I have to agree with Specop, it was Asia's responsibility to build a warning system for Asia.

Funny how the world likes to resent the hell out of America, and then demand that America be not only the global police patrol, but the global fire brigade, paramedic squad, and sanitation department.

In the meantime, Bush gets points for upping the aid package to $350 million. That's a ten-fold increase from what was pledged only a couple of days ago, based on the increasing knowledge of the real severity of the crisis.

And our military, with its world-class logistical capabilities, is swinging into high gear to do everything it can. The nearby Air Force bases are at this very moment sending cargo planes full of troops who are specially trained to map out logistic supply scenarios on the ground. This is a necessary precondition before actual aid can start being landed, to be sure the supplies can actually get to where they're needed (rather than piling up on docks).

After that, the Air Force will start bringing in supplies. The Navy is sending a carrier group with additional supplies in vast quantity. The Marines aboard those ships will deploy inland to establish supply routes. Presumably the Army will also have a role in terms of engineering and transport on the ground. Presumably our allies will be doing likewise to the extent of their capabilities.

For those folks here who were concerned with their kids being drafted, consider that these types of activities on the part of our military will become more commonplace as the malthusian crises continue. That is, there will be more rescue missions due to violent storms, famines, etc., as a result of climate change and its consequences. Or if you're looking for a non-military role, think of the various service agencies, from the Red Cross to those that operate under the direct authority of the UN.

[Laurasia]

Regarding the tsunami warning system (or lack thereof) read page 2 of the following article:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/2004/Dec/ ... 050001.htm

If a tsunami had never happened in people's living memory, perhaps it is understandable that a tsunami warning system was not installed in the Indian Ocean.

Regards,

L.

[k_semler]

Re. #3, yes, that problem will recur in another generation or so. Cultural memory being what it is, or rather, isn't.

They already *had* a warning system, when their animals started going bonkers and running inland.

And what more warning do you need when you see the beach grow by 300 feet in a matter of seconds? That is a final indicator of an incoming tsunami, not the ocean draining. Yes, by the time that you see this, you may have only 2 miniutes to escape, but it should serve as a warning to at least attempt to run for a higher elevation. Nature provides her own warnings, it is in mankind's intrest to learn to read these signs.

I have to agree with Specop, it was Asia's responsibility to build a warning system for Asia.

I agree completely. If they value thier lives enough, they would have taken proper precautions to ensure an adequate tsunami warning system. The reason of "it has not happened before" is not a good reason to inadequatly prepare for a possible disaster.

Funny how the world likes to resent the hell out of America, and then demand that America be not only the global police patrol, but the global fire brigade, paramedic squad, and sanitation department.

Exactly as a spoiled child would with his/her parents. When America does not bow down to what the other countries want, (give the child candy/money), then it results in a gigantic pissing match and bitch-fest, (a temper tantrum). When we commit $35,000,000 to disaster relief, we are called cheapskates, (the child wants even more candy/money, which he did not earn). So we proceed to commit over $350,000,000.00 to the cause, only to silence them, and no gratitude is shown, (give a child 200lbs of candy/$1500, and get no thanks). It is pretty sad when the behavior of nations can be compared with that of spoiled children and not have it irrelivant in any sense, (other than how can you spank a whole nation?)

[k_semler]

People Flung into the Air Like Confetti

Arjuna Seneviratna, a 40-year-old IT consultant from Sri Lanka, lives in the capital Colombo but was staying in Beruwela on the south-western coast when the tsunami wave struck.

He witnessed the tsunami, and told the news and current affairs programme The World about the harrowing experience.

When the first wave came in, we were happy that we were seeing something that was really strange, but it was a very mild wave. Then the sea receded back, and we didn't know what that meant.

Read the rest at the BBC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Floods in Sri Lanka Prompt Evacuations

BANDA ACEH, Indonesia Jan 1, 2005 — Pounding rain drenched the wrecked city of Banda Aceh on Saturday, adding to the misery of homeless earthquake and tsunami survivors and heightening fears of waterborne diseases. Flash floods in Sri Lanka forced evacuations and thwarted aid deliveries.

Worldwide donations to aid those battered by the huge waves that slammed Asian and African nations approached $1 billion, and a steady stream of foreign military aircraft touched down in the epicenter of the disaster, the Aceh province on the northern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra island.

But supplies were bottlenecking and officials acknowledged distribution networks were not in place to deliver desperately needed supplies to the worst-hit areas.
...

Six days after the earthquake and tsunamis, the confirmed death toll passed 123,000, and 5 million people were homeless.

The hunt for loved ones dragged on with tens of thousands still missing around the region.

In an even graver assessment, U.N. humanitarian chief Jan Egeland estimated the number of dead was approaching 150,000. He said the final toll would probably never be known.

...

Flash floods in eastern Sri Lanka on Saturday forced the evacuation of 2,000 people from low-lying areas already affected by the tsunami, officials said.

...

Aftershocks rattled the region, including a 6.5-magnitude quake 215 miles west of Banda Aceh on Saturday, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Smaller aftershocks hit northern Sumatra and the Nicobar and Andaman islands, remote Indian territory just north of Sumatra. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the aftershocks were too small to trigger tsunamis.

...

...Health workers have warned that heavy rain could spread diseases like cholera and diarrhea. Thousands of uncollected corpses remain in and around the city.

...

In an airport hangar in Medan, south of Banda Aceh, thousands of boxes of basics had accumulated since Monday and were going nowhere.

...

In the hardest-hit country, Indonesia, the official death toll stood at more than 80,000, but officials said it could reach 100,000.

"We mourn, we cry and our hearts weep to witness thousands of victims sprawled everywhere," said Yudhoyono, the president. "We witness those survivors still living in desperation and sinking into sadness and confusion."

[gg3]

The item about supply bottlenecks demonstrates the necessity of the decision by the Air Force to send in logistics specialists first. When they get on the ground, things will start to move.

K_semler, I don't think we committed $350 million "only to silence them" (I'm assuming you are using the word "to" in that phrase to mean, "for the purpose of"). I think it's more likely that, as word came in about the growing scope of the disaster, Bush felt morally obligated to pull out the stops and do whatever was possible.

Nor do I think it's appropriate to repay resentment with righteousness. Comments comparing other countries & cultures to spoiled babies are exactly what causes people to resent America. In terms of resource consumption, it is *we* who are the spoiled babies of the world, each of us using up what ten to twenty people in India or Sri Lanka uses.

Better, I think, to look at this from the perspective of Christian good will or Buddhist compassion, or their nonreligious equivalents, and offer help without righteousness or strings attached.

Meanwhile, in the news today, Japan steps in with $500 million. This is good, it could get to be a regular competition among industrial nations to see who can give the most and do the most.

By the way, where are the Saudis in all of this? Indonesia is a largely Muslim country, isn't it? And here we are, the Great Satan, regularly reviled in the Saudi madrassas funded by our gasoline purchases, sending our military to rescue Indonesian Muslims. I'm sure it occurred to Colin Powell et. al. that there might be some strategic benefits in doing so, but the fact remains, we *are* doing it, and action counts.

[k_semler]

The item about supply bottlenecks demonstrates the necessity of the decision by the Air Force to send in logistics specialists first. When they get on the ground, things will start to move.

K_semler, I don't think we committed $350 million "only to silence them" (I'm assuming you are using the word "to" in that phrase to mean, "for the purpose of"). I think it's more likely that, as word came in about the growing scope of the disaster, Bush felt morally obligated to pull out the stops and do whatever was possible.

OK, I will grant you that, but I do find it rather odd to increase the amount of commitment over 10 times the original dedicated amount just shortly after being critizised in a national newspaper. It seems that it does have a relationship to being called "stingy" by the New York Times, the French Daily, and UN officials. It seems rather like a child calling you a cheapass, and then proceeding to sign your checking account over to him just to appease him, and further justifying it with him needing to pay for college.

Nor do I think it's appropriate to repay resentment with righteousness.

Exactly, as written in Exodus 21:24, "an eye for an eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot, burn for burn, wound for wound." They disregard our needs/wants, so why should the US government feel any obligation to respect those who hate them?

Comments comparing other countries & cultures to spoiled babies are exactly what causes people to resent America.

As the old saying goes, "If the shoe fits, wear it." and "You made your bed, now you must lay in it."

In terms of resource consumption, it is *we* who are the spoiled babies of the world, each of us using up what ten to twenty people in India or Sri Lanka uses.

I would consider a comparison to a school yard bully more befitting of the situation. First we ask for the lunch money, (energy/oil), and if it is not given to us, we will just beat it out of them, (take them to war/impose economic sanctions). I think both tactics of whining, and beatings need to come to an end, all either does is result in distrust and hatred of the nations doing this. The nations of the world need to grow up, and use logic in thier arguments, and PO will do just that hopefully.

Better, I think, to look at this from the perspective of Christian good will or Buddhist compassion, or their nonreligious equivalents, and offer help without righteousness or strings attached.

As Jesus said, "Love thine enemy", and it appears that we are doing just that. However, I doubt he was reffering to the actions of nations, and rather individuals when this statement was made. It does make sense, there is no better way to make an enemy re-think thier actions than being nice to them. It is much more effective at promoting change than use of force.

Meanwhile, in the news today, Japan steps in with $500 million. This is good, it could get to be a regular competition among industrial nations to see who can give the most and do the most.

I think this is a very good thing. Compitition amongst nations and individuals does have benifits, including economic development as well as disaster recovery. It appears that capitalism has proven its self over communism once again. If every donating nation only provided $10M, then the recovery would not be funded enough. However, with a competitive tactic, more funds are generated, thus making the rebiulding effort easier to achieve.

By the way, where are the Saudis in all of this? Indonesia is a largely Muslim country, isn't it? And here we are, the Great Satan, regularly reviled in the Saudi madrassas funded by our gasoline purchases, sending our military to rescue Indonesian Muslims. I'm sure it occurred to Colin Powell et. al. that there might be some strategic benefits in doing so, but the fact remains, we *are* doing it, and action counts.

I agree. The ME reigon and UN are great when it comes to political rhetoric, but when it comes time to actually do something, who ends up being called? The USA. We may not be that great at filibusters, (maybe we should appoint some congress critters to UN to redeem this), but when it is time to roll some steel, we are the people to call.

[Guest]

I said we could prevent some crazy person from strapping a bomb on themselves and blowing up something.

Yea, there's a shredded tent in Iraq where a group were wounded and died. The people behind the person with the bomb strapped to the body was even filmed in his act of blowing up.

Really good job of stopping the bomber.

Perhaps you've not paid enough money to the government so they can do what you are claiming can be done?