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THE Tsunami Thread (merged)

Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby scas » Sun 13 Mar 2011, 11:23:33

dorlomin - the link to the Philosophical Transactions are pasted in this thread.

Anyway, I will assume that you think climate change and associated sea level rises can never have an impact on seismic activity, even a fractional impact (0.000006% stronger, for example).
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 13 Mar 2011, 11:30:36

scas wrote:dorlomin - the link to the Philosophical Transactions are pasted in this thread.
You are indulging in wild speculation that has no basis. The link is about what happens when there is a 150m sea level rise and a loss of 3km thick ice sheets.

Science is not about what sounds cool and edgy on an internet forum and if you wave your hands enough you can justify to yourself.

Its about what you can demonstrate.

Can you demonstrate that changes in wind have not affected earthquakes?
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby scas » Sun 13 Mar 2011, 11:44:56

Royal Society Stunner: “Observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere.”

Top scientists call for research on climate link to volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis


April 19, 2010

"Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the solid Earth, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. This response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a wide range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and sub-aerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide ’splash’ waves glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilisation. Looking ahead, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a world warmed by anthropogenic climate change, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere."


I guess we just have different interpretations of what "may already" means.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 13 Mar 2011, 12:30:21

So we should pay no attention to this newfangled 2010 quackery from the journal pompously named "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society"


Separate issues. Ice rapidly unloading on a continent will create isostatic rebound….locally and potential allow for reactivation of old faults there is a theory that meltwater can create localized pore pressure induced events.
Hampel, A., R. Hetzel, G. Maniatis (2010): Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface. In: W. McGuire (ed.) Climate forcing of geological and geomorphological hazards, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010 368, 2501-2517 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0031.
This is not a universal response to ice sheet unloading however. The process of isostatic rebound is not fast, indeed North America is still rebounding from the past glaciation and any earthquakes experienced are minor and generally not thought to be related.
This isostatic response will, however, have zero affect on plate boundaries millions of miles away with numerous spreading centres and continental masses in between. There are documented faults, and minor earthquakes associated with ice removal within the continental land mass (eg. Iceland, Greenland) but their are no plate boundary quakes, which the Japan one was. Analysis of the seismicity associated with the quake and its aftershocks pinpoints exactly the mechanism, a similar mechanism to what has been creating earthquakes in the trench throughout history.

Did it have an effect on the timing, strength or duration? Undoubtedly.


This is the classic global warming null hypothesis…."AGW affects everything, anything that happens has something to do with it", irrespective of any proof or even a theory that makes any sense whatsoever. When you hear hoofbeats think horses not zebras.

Knowing that there are things that you don't know m

Unlike the science of climate change the science related to earthquakes as they relate to plate boundaries is based in physical proof. The seismic record determines the focal mechanism the depth and solid earth geophysical record determines the rock properties. The magnetic imprint on the seafloor yields movement vectors that allow for determination of stress resolution at plate boundaries. As I said previously this is a science that received immense scrutiny back in the sixties and seventies. The geoscience departments at Berkley, Caltech, Texas A& M were dedicated to nothing else back then. And the fact that Japan is positioned at the confluence of three major plate boundaries and historically has almost daily low frequency tremors means it is one of the best-researched areas by seismologists.

And as to the ridiculous assumption that the moon at perigee would have anything to do with the Japan earthquake….the moon was not a perigee on the 11th in fact it was somewhere between apogee and perigee. The moon is at perigee 12 times a year….where are all the associated major earthquakes? The major earthquake in Indonesia in 2004 occurred when the moon was in apogee…a negative piece of evidence. The reality is that the tidal forces, though important are extremely weak. And I mentioned Texas A&M previously. A group headed by Dr John Logan back in the seventies was tasked with identifying possible early warning systems for earthquakes. The group researched all aspects of animal response to low frequency ground tremors throughout history and in the lab. If the moon and tidal forces had anything whatsoever to do with earthquakes scientists would be basing their predictions on how close the moon is….which they do not.


missing current sea mass of exising sea wich may measure several thousand meters.


You lot want to make a meal of of that, go for it. Its your credibility not mine.


At the end of the last glaciation sea level was about 400 feet lower than it is currently. The addition of 400 feet of sea water had no appreciable impact on plate boundary activity according to the geologic record. Hence it seems a bit of a stretch to think that a foot or so of additional sea level rise would have any impact whatsoever.

Perhaps the correct question to have asked here is did the Japan earthquake have an impact on future climate? The earth's tilt changed a minor amount (10 inches) as a consequence, theoretically that would impact the seasons. The answer of course is yes it would have an impact but it will be so small as not to be of consequence.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 13 Mar 2011, 17:22:15

On the other hand, if this thing really blows, it could cool the earth off a bit for a year or two:

http://www.pamil-visions.net/southern-japan-volcano/224213/

That's not likely to be much comfort to the poor, beset folks in the immediate area, though.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 13 Mar 2011, 17:48:32

scas wrote:I guess we just have different interpretations of what "may already" means.
As well as high latitude .
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 13 Mar 2011, 17:52:59

That volcano erupted in 2008 and 2009, too. Wonder if there's a correlation there. Beats checking on the precise fashion in which crickets are chirping. :roll: Is that where the notion of crickets chirping suggesting passivity or lack of activity began?

Looks like a spike in the frequency of earthquakes is caused by Final Solutions too; or the invention of nylon? Massive tank battles? Atomic testing? Frank Sinatra?

Image

From the folks at freerepublic.com: More Earthquake Data Does Not Mean More Earthquakes. Best link I could find, I'm sure more sober analysis of this matter is out there somewhere. I still have other questions, for one thing, do major earthquakes come in swarms covering a decade or less? Simple eyeballing of this chart makes that seem to be the case. Living in an area prone to major quakes every few centuries this has me worried, naturally. But more quakes from AGW seems highly dubious, unless the WAIS disappears, flooding, say, the California Central Valley, leading to coincident seismic activity; but I think we'll have other concerns as well, right?
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 13 Mar 2011, 20:45:06

do major earthquakes come in swarms covering a decade or less?


that has been an observation by the seismologists. On a grander time scale plates move at different rates. Periods of more rapid plate movement measured by the size of magnetic bands in the ocean floor tend to correspond to periods of global tectonic activity. One might think that applying the idea of fractals to this pattern would mean that on the scale of decades you might also see periods of more rapid sea floor spreading and hence more frequent large earthquakes.
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TSUNAMI "will" destroy US East coast and the UK

Unread postby KevO » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 03:41:07

Recently, scientists have realised that the next Mega Tsunami is likely to begin on one of the Canary Islands, off the coast of North Africa, where a wall of water will one day race across the entire Atlantic Ocean at the speed of a jet airliner to devastate the east coast of the United States, the Caribbean and Brazil.

Dr Simon Day, who works at the Benfield Greig Hazards Research Centre, University College London*, says that one flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma, in the Canaries, is unstable and could plunge into the ocean during the volcano's next eruption.

Dr. Day says: "If the volcano collapsed in one block of almost 20 cubic kilometres of rock, weighing 500 billion tonnes - twice the size of the Isle of Wight - it would fall into water almost 4 miles deep and create an undersea wave 2000 feet tall. Within five minutes of the landslide, a dome of water about a mile high would form and then collapse, before the Mega Tsunami fanned out in every direction, travelling at speeds of up to 500 mph. A 330ft wave would strike the western Sahara in less than an hour."

Europe would be protected from the fiercest force by the position of the other Canary Islands, but the tsunami would still bring 33ft waves to Lisbon and La Coruña within three hours.

After six hours it would reach Britain, where waves up to 40 ft high would hit southwest England at 500 miles per hour, travel a mile inland and obliterate almost everything in its path including the Nuclear power station at Hinkley Point where the prevailing winds will take any radiation across the whole of the UK. Even Britain's more sheltered shores, in the North Sea and Irish Sea, will be struck by smaller but still significant swells, causing widespread flooding in major coastal cities.

"We need better models to see what the precise effects on Britain will be." Dr. Day said. However, it is likely that London could suffer sever inundation as the Thames Barrier's ability to cope with such a dramatic rise in water levels exceeds its design specifications.
http://members.beforeitsnews.com/story/ ... he_UK.html
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby scas » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 17:44:17

dorlomin wrote:
scas wrote:I guess we just have different interpretations of what "may already" means.
As well as high latitude .


I am glad you agree climate change can, and already may be causing responses in the geosphere.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 17:55:31

It wuz caused by the Expanding Earth
Last edited by vision-master on Mon 14 Mar 2011, 18:08:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 18:05:28

scas wrote:I am glad you agree climate change can, and already may be causing responses in the geosphere.
Dont be a cowardly weasel and try put words in my mouth.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 18:15:08

Also, I will add,,,,,,,, We are entering the end of the Long Count Calendar with massive Earth Changes taking place per precessional cycle timing.

It will take 5 (five) generations of humans before the Earth Changes end according to ancient sanskrit texts.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 18:43:59

Gadaffi is actually a reincarnation of Xenu and he used a hydrogen bomb that failed to set off a volcano back when Earth was known as Teegeeack to set off the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami, in order to distract the world from his nefarious actions in Libya.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby scas » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 18:50:55

dorlomin wrote:
scas wrote:I am glad you agree climate change can, and already may be causing responses in the geosphere.
Dont be a cowardly weasel and try put words in my mouth.


cowardly weasel? nice one :-D
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 21:51:45

Good to see you're still around, Dude.

Correlation is certainly not necessarily causation, and improved monitoring can certainly skew the data, but if you check the records on wiki or elsewhere, there have been about 150 earthquakes over 7 (the usual definition of 'major or great') since 2000 (the date where your graph stops, and only about 50 from 1970 to 2000. It is not my specialty, but I don't know of any major breakthrough in seismology technology that would have increased our ability to sense earthquakes by about ten times in 2000. So presumably there has been some significant level of increase in the last ten years over the long term average. I am inclined to assume that the fact that this coincides with the period when the effects of GW, especially of large ice bodies, really started to accelerate dramatically. But it does not strike me as on the face of it an utterly inane question whether ice cap melting and sea level rise has or could affect pressure points in plate tectonics, some of which are apparently on hair triggers, ready to go off explosively with the slightest forcing.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby joewp » Mon 14 Mar 2011, 23:35:22

rockdoc123 wrote:without doubt this is the most ill-informed load of claptrap I have had the pain of witnessing on this site.


Oh bullshit rockdoc. I've been around here for over 5 years and without a doubt there have been other things you've called people ill-informed for, like asserting that Saudi production has peaked. I believe you had some choice words in that vein for the late Matt Simmons. Meanwhile, the Saudis seem to be having trouble getting back to 9mb/d and seem to have an excess of crappy, thick, sulfur-laden shit that nobody wants. Maybe it slipped your mind, but peak oil is about the light, sweet stuff. Yow know, the high EROEI stuff.

I used to think you were an important voice around here countering some of the more shrill peakers. Now I know you're just a shill. Especially when it comes to climate discussions, you do your employers proud.

At this point, it's pretty much like whatever you say, the smart money is on the opposite. And in 5 years, you've been proven wrong time and time again. When do you quit?
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 15 Mar 2011, 05:48:02

sea level rise has or could affect pressure points in plate tectonics, some of which are apparently on hair triggers, ready to go off explosively with the slightest forcing.
The giant earthquakes are caused by a build up of tension in an area where tectonic plates meet. Either were they are pushing together or pulling apart. The total amount of energy released over a long time frame is basically all going to come from the energy in the slow movement areas of rock measing in the millions of square kilometer and up to 100km's deep rubbing against each other.

The pressure from 20kg additional mass per square meter is 200 pascals. Atmospheric pressure is around 1.01*10^5 pascals and can vary by as much (or more than) 10%. So the variation can in theory range around 1.1 *10^4 pascals or vary in the order of 1000 times more than the change in sea level. This is not a steady pressure either but a loading on and off.
An average human weighs around 80 kg so has a ground pressure of around 5000 pascals.
The very light additional loading of sea level so far is dwarfed by the pressure of a man walking.
I simply do not see it. Certainly no one has put forward anything more substantial than the well understood fact that isostatic rebound will cause local siesmic activity. The idea that these tiny forces affect the grinding of continenets together is a little, over cooking the goose.
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby sparky » Tue 15 Mar 2011, 07:12:23

.

Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

what a lot of rubbish , how can anyone even ask that question
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Re: Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

Unread postby Asterisk » Wed 16 Mar 2011, 08:01:25

sparky wrote:.

Did global warming cause the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami?

what a lot of rubbish , how can anyone even ask that question


Did you even read the post? I understand not agreeing with what the theory, but saying that you don't understand how one could ask the question implies that you didn't read the argument.

Thanks Dohboi. I'm still around....just been kind of lurking, lol (as in keeping up with the posts but not replying).
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