[Geko45]

it may have to mean that China sends troops into Africa.

Now that is a scary thought... If China sends troops into Ethiopia, it won't be a "Blackhawk Down" type scenario. The Chinese will go in and crush all opposition and then set up shop permanently.

[Zardoz]

...The Chinese will go in and crush all opposition and then set up shop permanently.

Doubt it. They've learned a valuable lesson from our fiasco in Iraq, one would think. It's really hard to "crush all opposition" these days. Occupying forces, no matter what country they're from, face an extremely difficult task in the modern era when even the most rag-tag opposition can employ powerful weaponry and sophisticated guerrilla tactics.

[EnergyUnlimited]

What does this mean?

A disruption in oil supplies to China, China on the market for new imports? Just the Chinese way of creating job turnover and it will be business as usual?

Perhaps introduction to US v China resources war by proxy.
I think we are gradually entering resource wars era.
I may be wrong, this just may be some local issue, but if similar situations will keep reoccurring, then my suspicions are right.

[EnergyUnlimited]

...The Chinese will go in and crush all opposition and then set up shop permanently.

Doubt it. They've learned a valuable lesson from our fiasco in Iraq, one would think. It's really hard to "crush all opposition" these days. Occupying forces, no matter what country they're from, face an extremely difficult task in the modern era when even the most rag-tag opposition can employ powerful weaponry and sophisticated guerrilla tactics.

Chineese may attempt something, what US would not have guts to do.

[DantesPeak]

I don’t know if we have any political experts on northeast African here, perhaps they can clarify what is going on here. It seems that the recent involvement of the US in supporting the Ethiopian government has resulted in military attacks launched on Somalia and rebel areas within Ethiopia – such as the area where this battle took place. The US has provided some military equipment and other support recently, which has basically lead to the near overthrow of the existing Somalia government by forces backed by Ethiopia. The Ethiopian rebels in this case seem to be staging some kind of counter attack to assert the fact they are still around, and claim some of those oil revenues.

I don’t see this being a proxy war with China, at least not yet. So far, the military plan of the US does not appear to be in direct conflict with letting China develop its oil interests in Africa – and in particular Ethiopia. However recent events show that the US is prepared to provide military support to protect what it sees as it interests, and I suppose that could eventually put the US in opposition to Chinese interests – for example, if in Sudan, the US started militarily supporting the dispossessed internal refugees.

Comments on where this may be heading are welcome.

[jdmartin]

...The Chinese will go in and crush all opposition and then set up shop permanently.

Doubt it. They've learned a valuable lesson from our fiasco in Iraq, one would think. It's really hard to "crush all opposition" these days. Occupying forces, no matter what country they're from, face an extremely difficult task in the modern era when even the most rag-tag opposition can employ powerful weaponry and sophisticated guerrilla tactics.

Unless of course you're willing to kill everyone. If you're willing to kill everyone, there's no one left to oppose you. If, however, you are not willing to do that, then I fully agree with that position (as verified by what we're seeing now in Iraq). If we (the US) were willing to go in and obliterater every Iraqi around, there wouldn't be any insurgency because there wouldn't be any people. Wouldn't look too good for the champions of democracy, though, to wholesale slaughter everyone. Someone like China might get away with it, though, since in a lot of ways I think they really don't give a shit what anyone else thinks - look at their human rights records, economic imbalances, etc. They got the 10 cent per hour workers and we know it and so does the rest of the world, which is really just a bunch of united corporations at this point

[Twilight]

Wouldn't you rather think that the cost of oil is high due to terrorists/rebels rather than the fact that we just can't get any more?

It amounts to the same thing in the end.

You could have a decline rate imposed by nature, or you could have a decline rate imposed by implacable violence which you are not in a position to influence, or you could have both. At the end of the day, the root cause is academic - you are receiving less oil, you are competing more for what remains available, your standard of living drops, and your options are limited to sitting on the phone to talk radio. Either way everyone loses. Believing the cause is political doesn't broaden your options.

[Leanan]

Update:

The Ogaden National Liberation Front, an ethnic Somali group that has fought alongside insurgents in Somalia, also kidnapped seven Chinese workers. They have claimed responsbility.

In a statement sent to the AP, the rebel group said it had launched "military operations against units of the Ethiopian armed forces guarding an oil exploration site," in the east of the country. It also warned international oil companies not to operate in the region. Without offering details, the statement said rebels "wiped out" three Ethiopian military units and destroyed the facility.

[Lore]

Seems like the markets today are rather unaffected by all this. Presently the DOW is up 32 and oil is down $1.50.

[Geko45]

...The Chinese will go in and crush all opposition and then set up shop permanently.

Doubt it. They've learned a valuable lesson from our fiasco in Iraq, one would think. It's really hard to "crush all opposition" these days. Occupying forces, no matter what country they're from, face an extremely difficult task in the modern era when even the most rag-tag opposition can employ powerful weaponry and sophisticated guerrilla tactics.

Now that is truly doubtful. The fiasco in Iraq is not due to the brilliant military strategy of a band of well-armed guerillas. It is due to the fact that a moral society, such as the US, is not willing to resort to the kind of tactics necessary to supress such an insurgency. Whatever your opinion of the current administration, they must at least maintain the appearance of morality or they will be voted out office / impeached. So although we have the capability to suppress the insurgency, we don't have the willingness to do what would be necessary.

The Chinese, on the other hand, have no such qualms. Uprising in the capital of Ethiopia? Just drop VX on the whole city. Suicide bombers laying in ambush for passing convoys? Identify the body and execute everyone they ever knew. In short order, these tactics will break the will of any resistance. You just have to be willing to employ them in their most brutal fashion (something that I am grateful we aren't willing to do). Although always wrong morally, genocide is a very effective tactic when the opposing forces are not equally matched militarily.

[Lore]

The Chinese, on the other hand, have no such qualms. Uprising in the capital of Ethiopia? Just drop VX on the whole city. Suicide bombers laying in ambush for passing convoys? Identify the body and execute everyone they ever knew. In short order, these tactics will break the will of any resistance. You just have to be willing to employ them in their most brutal fashion (something that I am grateful we aren't willing to do). Although always wrong morally, genocide is a very effective tactic when the opposing forces are not equally matched militarily.

Say... I know you, arn't you part of the militant Geico Gecko Wing?

[align=center][/align]

[Fishman]

Geko
This is exactly why when I hear the moans of how terrible the US is, the impending fascist control, bla, bla bla. I simply think, please fill in the blanks. The next super power wil be _____, and they are superior to the US because________. Though clearly not perfect, history has never had a more benign, freedom loving super power than the US.

[NEOPO]

We destabilize entire regions and maintain the instability to justify initial as well as ongoing military force.

The situation in Iraq and Afghanistan is going according to plan.

Why certain people repeat this falshood over and over and why others entertain such nonsense is beyond my willingness to constantly out them as the agents that they must be.
Wether knowingly or unknowingly these folks support the status quo.

Mind open yet?
I wont be here forever

[dinopello]

The Chinese, on the other hand, have no such qualms. Uprising in the capital of Ethiopia? Just drop VX on the whole city. Suicide bombers laying in ambush for passing convoys? Identify the body and execute everyone they ever knew.

Do the Chinese have a history of intervention with tactics like this outside of their own continent ? It will be interesting to see how they handle a crisis of this type in Africa.

[stu]

Some info on Ethiopian oil.

From Department of Energy

Ethiopia's current proven hydrocarbon reserves are minimal, but the potential to increase reserves to commercial viability is seen as promising. The country's geology is similar to that of its oil-producing neighbors to the east (on the Arabian peninsula) and the west (Sudan). In April 2001, the Ministry of Mines and Energy reported that hydrocarbon seeps had been discovered in several regions. The government plans to conduct feasibility studies to establish the extent and viability of the deposits.

Hydrocarbon exploration in Ethiopia's Ogaden Basin began over 80 years ago (Standard Oil in 1920). The Ethiopian government formed the Calub Gas Share Company (CGSC) to develop the fields. In 1994, the World Bank approved a $74 million loan to develop the Ogaden Basin fields. The Ethiopian Privatization Agency (EPA) put the CGSC up for privatization in 1998, but the EPA, citing weak bids, withdrew the tender. In December 1999, Houston-based Sicor announced that it had signed a $1.4 billion joint-venture deal to develop the Calub natural gas project. Under the terms of the agreement, Gasoil Ethiopia Project (GEP), the joint-venture firm, will acquire 95 percent of the CGSC under the Ethiopian government's privatization law. Currently, 5 percent of the CGSC is held by local private investors. The Ethiopian government will hold a 20 percent interest in GEP with Sicor holding the remaining share. GEP plans to construct a 375-mile, 24-inch pipeline to transmit natural gas to the town of Awash, which is approximately 75 miles east of the capital Addis Ababa. At Awash, plans call for construction of a cryogenic liquids plant and two gas-to-liquids process systems with capacity to process 200 million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d) of natural gas. The end products would be synthetic fuels and petrochemical feedstocks plus steam to generate electricity and help produce 20,000 bbl/d of potable water. A planned refinery would produce products including diesel, gasoline, kerosene and jet fuels. The gas-to-liquids system would also produce some 500 tons of ammonia per day as feedstock for a urea plant to be constructed. Construction of the pipeline had originally been planned for 2002; however, gas development in Ogaden has not yet begun.

In June 2003, the Ethiopian government signed an oil exploration deal with Petronas for 5,800 square mile tract in Gambela, in the far western part of the country. The region is closely related to the Sudan oil fields. Petronas has committed to investing in regional infrastructure, employing local staff, improving health services, and developing the skills of the ministry of Mines. Petronas is also interested in natural gas exploration in Ogaden, but no official plans have yet been made.

From Chinese Newspaper

he oil exploration well in Ethiopia's west state of Gambella has turned out dry, it was learned in Addis Ababa on Saturday.

The drilling work on the first exploration well, which is 3,500 meters deep, was recently finalized, said Li Jianjun, chief representative of the Chinese oil firm Zhongyuan Petroleum Exploration Bureau (ZPEB).

After conducting a well test to ascertain if there was oil in the area, ZPEB experts concluded there was no oil inflow in the well, Li told Xinhua.

ZPEB, which had been contracted by the Malaysian oil firm Petronas, has been prospecting for crude oil for the past two years in the Gambella basin, near the Sudanese border. Since 2004, ZPEB has been conducting seismic surveys in the Gambella basin. In March this year, ZPEB started drilling the exploration well in the area.

The Gambella basin is one of the five sedimentary basins found in Ethiopia, which are expected to be oil prospective.

The well was drilled in Chikaw, 175 km east of the Ethio-Sudan boarder and 85 km from Gambella, capital of the Gambella state. The Gambella basin stretches across a 19,600 square km of land. The Gambella basin is an extension of the Melut basin, located in southern Sudan. The Melut basin is known for its huge amount of oil reserve.

However, ZPEB experts said one cannot conclude that there was no oil reserve in the Gambella basin just by looking at the well testing conducted on only one well.

Li said ZPEB will undertake another seismic survey in the basin in the dry season as the current rainy season have interrupted their exploration activity.

After studying the geological formation in the first well and conducting a new seismic survey in the area, ZPEB experts will identify where to drill an additional exploration well, he said.

Looks like theres more potential for natural gas in Ethiopia than oil.

[Newsseeker]

Seems like the markets today are rather unaffected by all this. Presently the DOW is up 32 and oil is down $1.50.

Probably isn't a huge source of oil.

[DantesPeak]

China, Ethiopia: Facing the Price of Engaging Africa
April 24, 2007 17 33 GMT

Summary

An attack on a Chinese energy exploration facility in eastern Ethiopia has left nine Chinese dead and another seven kidnapped. Reportedly carried out by some 200 militants, the attack was well-planned and -coordinated, suggesting the perpetrators intended to target the Chinese facility. Coming on the heels of a string of attacks against Chinese interests in Africa and rising African concerns about Chinese activities, the incident will force Beijing to rethink its involvement and security in Africa.

Stratfor [email summary, no link possible]

Chinese have also been killed or kidnapped in Nigeria this year.

[strider3700]

Geko
This is exactly why when I hear the moans of how terrible the US is, the impending fascist control, bla, bla bla. I simply think, please fill in the blanks. The next super power wil be

Russia

, and they are superior to the US because

They are willing to tell their sheeple to shut the hell up and do what is needed or be shot.

Westerners will continue to demand whats best for themselves not whats best for their country. In the past this has worked out great because making life for it's people better has worked well to strength the country. In the future excessive numbers of people demanding a quality of life that is now becoming impossible to maintain will only hurt a country. We'll continue to vote out anyone who doesn't give us what we want even if we want the impossible. The Russians will use an iron fist to bring everyone under control and will probably be better off for it.

[Fishman]

Neopo, I noticed you didn't answer the question. Terrible America, blah, blah, blah.

[Twilight]

This is exactly why when I hear the moans of how terrible the US is, the impending fascist control, bla, bla bla. I simply think, please fill in the blanks. The next super power wil be _____, and they are superior to the US because________. Though clearly not perfect, history has never had a more benign, freedom loving super power than the US.

What makes you think there's going to be a next one?