[Ainan]

What a great opportunity for those seeking to be more independent from the current paradigm!

I could not have put it any better myself. 18 months of relative normality is all I need.

[ROCKMAN]

Gosh Ainan...you anticipate the next 18 months to be "of relative normality" in your life. I'm not sure if I'm envious or sorry for you.

Just a little tease. Have a good day.

[Graeme]

BP May Come to Mean "Biofuels Pro"

Now, along comes BP (NYSE: BP) willing to put its money where its mouth is by teaming up with Massachusetts-based Verenium Corp. (Nasdaq: VRNM) in laying plans for large-scale production of cellulosic ethanol from non-edible feedstocks, like energy cane and sorghum. The new factory will be built in Florida and will dwarf the Verenium plant in Louisiana -- which is currently the world's largest -- by a factor of 25. It’s also likely to cost $250 million to $300 million by the time it is completed.

link

[Pops]

What is "energy cane"?

[Pops]

I thought they were talking about sugar cane.

Crap, we should have bought a plantation down on the river road.

[Graeme]

The point is that BP is putting their money where their mouth is and also quietly indicating that peak oil is near by investing in alternative fuels.

[Graeme]

I wanted to emphasize that BP and other oil majors are starting to invest in alternative fuels. Whether they are successful at first is immaterial. I respect the effort you have put in studying biofuels and posting about them. You were right about corn ethanol. I agree that biofuels are not a magic bullet and they will not "power the industrial world". I think that biofuels will contribute (a third?) toward the total required in the short term (10-20 years). BP appears to be starting with so-called second-generation biofuels. I'm sure that they will also look at and manufacture other (third and more) sources for our existing fleet. Ultimately, biofuels will likely be phased out and replaced with something we are probably not aware of as yet.

[Ludi]

I think that biofuels will contribute (a third?) toward the total required in the short term (10-20 years).

What is "the total required"? Could you be more specific about the amounts and the timeframe?

I think that Rocket-Powered Flying Monkey Butlers will cater to my every whim in 10-20 years, but that doesn't mean such a scenario is plausible or likely.

[Graeme]

Sorry Ludi, I can't give specific numbers at short notice. I hope that other members can dig out the references to biofuel growth in the US, which have been posted on this board. I've seen them but can't find a specific reference on this board.

I can refer you to the DOE biofuels program however.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/

This is perhaps not the best reference, but Lovins has published his plan where he talks about biofuels contributing a 1/4 of US oil needs by 2025:

http://www.oilendgame.com/ExecutiveSummary.html

[Ludi]

So your thought is based on a hope or a wish, and not on evidence? You made the claim, I was just hoping and wishing you could present some numbers as evidence.

Oh well.

[Graeme]

Ludi, No the numbers were not based on a wish or hope but on real reports. They are mentioned in this article. If I find reference to the originals, I'll post them here:

Job growth likely in advanced biofuels, group says

A national biotechnology trade group estimates that advanced biofuel refineries could create thousands of new U.S. jobs within a few years, growing to nearly 200,000 by 2022.

A report released Wednesday by Biotechnology Industry Organization estimates that the full economic impact from advanced biofuels — renewable fuels derived from sources other than corn starch — could result in more than 800,000 jobs by 2022.

Wednesday's report comes on the heels of Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Corp. study earlier this month that estimated the U.S. could produce enough ethanol to displace nearly a third of all gasoline use by 2030.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/02/25/business/NA-US-Advanced-Biofuel-Jobs.php

Didn't take long. Here it is:

Sandia Labs/GM Biofuels Systems Study Concludes Large-Scale Production of Advanced Biofuels is Achievable and Sustainable

A joint biofuels systems analysis project conducted over nine months last year by Sandia National Laboratories and GM’s R&D Center concluded that the large-scale production of advanced biofuels produced from plant and forestry waste and dedicated energy crops in volumes well beyond the level required by the Renewable Fuel Standard is achievable and sustainable by 2030.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/02/sandia-labsgm-b.html

[Ludi]

"Wednesday's report comes on the heels of Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Corp. study earlier this month that estimated the U.S. could produce enough ethanol to displace nearly a third of all gasoline use by 2030.

That study found no fundamental barriers to large-scale production of biofuels, — but noted that gas would have to cost more than it does today for the plan to work.

The Sandia study found that annual ethanol production from plant waste and energy crops could reach 90 billion gallons by that date, with 75 billion gallons coming from cellulosic feedstocks such as switchgrass, corn stover, wheat straw and woody crops."

So the plan doesn't work on it's own, it is dependent on oil prices?

[Hawkcreek]

BP just doesn't want to admit they'd be stealing sugar out of the mouths of fat babies and their fat-f&ck moms and dads to turn it into rich-folk fuel. They know that wouldn't go over well. So they are talking about the 'bagasse' like it was just farm waste and not mentioning the crop. But we know better

Bagasse is the residue left after the cane is processed. You can see mountains of the stuff at any of the sugar refineries. Some products (certain types of wallboard) have used this scrap, but never in amounts great enough to make any real dent in the amount of waste sitting around.
This is not like turning corn into fuel, but just turning waste into fuel.

[Graeme]

That's what they say, it will depend on the price of oil. Can you really see that this remaining low for the forseeable future considering the prospect of peak oil looming? In addition, there will be added pressure to manufacture increasing amounts of biofuels. The DOE state that the feedstock, blends and type of biofuels will continue to evolve. If you have a look at the dpf file, which can be downloaded from the DOE page mentioned above, you will see that the they are also endeavouring to lower the costs of feedstock, conversion and enzymes used to make biofuel.

[Ludi]

they are also endeavouring to lower the costs of feedstock

Wouldn't that be awfully hard on the farmers who grow the feedstocks? Farmers can barely make a living as it is.