[Kristen]

Does demand even follow a bell-curve?

[TheAntiDoomer]

The cornies here(AD and OF2) can only win a Pyrrhic victory in this, you know. The only reason gasoline usage is down is because we're in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. What they won't say is that in order for gasoline usage to have peaked in the US, that means we'll be sinking into a worse and worse economic malaise that will throw 99% of Americans into poverty.

They post things like this as if they are celebrating something. Like I asked AD above, is the Greatest Depression what you're rooting for?

Because that's what you're going to get, my friend.

Quit changing the subject, first admit your "buillshit" was wrong, and your statement that the bp guy was already wrong was wrong.

[TheDude]

So demand peaks and then slightly more supply is provided in '07?

Filter out hurricanes and last year's price shock, and I don't see any massive departure from the secular trend here. Hayward and CERA's mumbo jumbo in no way takes into account population growth, limitations on ethanol, or the status of the US auto industry.

Hat tip to Dave Cohen and Calculated Risk:

Figure 1 — The always helpful Calculated Risk graphed the turnover rate of the American vehicle fleet back in March. He said “currently this ratio is at 26.8 years, the highest ever. This is an unsustainable level (I doubt most vehicles will last 27 years!), and the ratio will probably decline over the next few years. This could happen with vehicles being removed from the fleet, but more likely because of a sales increase.”

Obama Tackles the Liquid Fuels Problem :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

BP and CERA are quoting each other and these threads could as well be folded together into one big handy Peak Demand thread.

[DantesPeak]

According to the latest EIA report, gasoline demand year to date is down only 90,000 bpd as compared to last year. This is hardly the end of the gasoline age.


Looking at the chart above, it's easy to think that before the 2009 year is finished we will later this year see the year to date 2009 figures exceed the 2008 amounts.

Possible reasons for gasoline demand spitting in the face of deep recession are (but not limited to):



relatively lower prices compared to last year

a possible transition from air transport to ground transport for persons

shorter hours working hours do not mean less hours traveled to work

inertia from the switch to larger vehicles and greater suburbanization since 2000 that may not yet have peaked

declining gas mileage due to inefficiencies caused from poor maintenance and ethanol mixtures

[joewp]

The cornies here(AD and OF2) can only win a Pyrrhic victory in this, you know. The only reason gasoline usage is down is because we're in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. What they won't say is that in order for gasoline usage to have peaked in the US, that means we'll be sinking into a worse and worse economic malaise that will throw 99% of Americans into poverty.

They post things like this as if they are celebrating something. Like I asked AD above, is the Greatest Depression what you're rooting for?

Because that's what you're going to get, my friend.

Quit changing the subject, first admit your "buillshit" was wrong, and your statement that the bp guy was already wrong was wrong.

Actually, he is wrong, since we could very well buy more gasoline this year. You don't know and neither does he.

Could you address my point above? What is your purpose in celebrating stories like this? Do you think it somehow "proves" the doomer point wrong? Because it seems to me that a decrease in gasoline use in a country that runs on gasoline most likely means the country is running down. That's not something I would celebrate. I'd mourn it.

[joewp]

Actually, he is wrong, since we could very well buy more gasoline this year. You don't know and neither does he.

He's getting more wrong every week...
From this week's PSR

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3
million barrels per day, up by 1.1 percent from the same period last year.

How about that? Americans are getting out there and driving to that mall and the soccer field and don't care what some uninformed CEO of BP says.

Where's Aunty Doomer? I think (s)he has some crow to eat since the quote was : '“We probably sold as much gasoline into the U.S. as we’ll ever sell” in the first half of last year[2008]'.

PS - It takes more gas to look for a job than to work, and when you're out of work you'll take a job a long way from home. I expect gasoline demand to continue ratcheting upward until we hit another "wall" like $147/barrel and $4.00 gas like we did last year

[copious.abundance]

Actually, he is wrong, since we could very well buy more gasoline this year. You don't know and neither does he.

He's getting more wrong every week...
From this week's PSR

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3
million barrels per day, up by 1.1 percent from the same period last year.

And this time last year gasoline consumption was down -1.8% from 2007. So we're still down -0.7% from 2007.

[DantesPeak]

Actually, he is wrong, since we could very well buy more gasoline this year. You don't know and neither does he.

He's getting more wrong every week...
From this week's PSR

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3
million barrels per day, up by 1.1 percent from the same period last year.

And this time last year gasoline consumption was down -1.8% from 2007. So we're still down -0.7% from 2007.

This week's gasoline demand exceeded last year's comparable week by 100,000 bpd. Granted that's still less than 2007 by less than 1/2 of 1%, but this thread isn't about 2007 - but 2009.

Are you sure you really want to defend someone who said “We probably sold as much gasoline into the U.S. as we’ll ever sell” in the first half of last year.

[Voice_du_More]

The fact remains that the US cannot be expected to be a strong growth market for at least a few years. China and India are the places everyone is looking. I mean China get's hit hard and still grows by 3-5% then that is your growth market. The Indians have their own car industry now, relatively free from the Big Three.

I guess I do not find it surprising that US gasoline demand may have peaked. Under what circumstances would it start to rise again without pushing prices into areas that would again be painful?

[copious.abundance]

If BP and Exxon are correct in their assertions about a secular decline in American gasoline consumption, you aren't going to see dramatic, 5% drops in demand in one year. You will probably see 0.5% and 1% declines year after year, and maybe a year here and there where demand remains flat or goes up a bit. But after a while those 0.5% and 1% declines will start to add up.

[joewp]

If BP and Exxon are correct in their assertions about a secular decline in American gasoline consumption, you aren't going to see dramatic, 5% drops in demand in one year. You will probably see 0.5% and 1% declines year after year, and maybe a year here and there where demand remains flat or goes up a bit. But after a while those 0.5% and 1% declines will start to add up.

If they are correct, that means they've been reading here and are convinced that the US is going into a permanent recession/depression cycle. If you look at the historical record, every time gasoline consumption declined in this country, there was a recession going on (which was usually caused by an oil price spike). The pablum being doled out for the masses from Exxon about "alternative fuels" is BS, since there's no alternative or combination of them that could run this country like gasoline does.

I still want to know OF or AD, why the cheer about potential declining gasoline usage in the US when it's almost certainly caused by recession or depression? Is that what you're rooting for?

[copious.abundance]

At one point in time, economic growth always meant increasing oil consumption in Japan and most European nations, and the corrolary was that decreasing oil consumption meant an economic slowdown. This is no longer true for those two regions - their economies grew for several years in recent history while their oil consumption remained flat or went down. Past trends are not always indicative of future performance.

If they are correct, that means they've been reading here and are convinced that the US is going into a permanent recession/depression cycle.

No, they are not basing their forecasts on what the the doomers post here. If you read this article, Exxon is not even citing a declining economy as their reason for decreased gasoline consumption:

The reasons include changes in the way Americans live and the transportation they choose, along with a growing emphasis on alternative fuels.

[joe1347]

I guess BP's new slogan is "Back (to) Petroleum" - instead of last years "Beyond Petroleum"
link

BP shuts alternative energy HQ
• 'Beyond Petroleum' boast in doubt as clean energy boss quits
• Renewables budget will be reduced by up to £550m this year
BP has shut down its alternative energy headquarters in London, accepted the resignation of its clean energy boss and imposed budget cuts in moves likely to be seen by environmental critics as further signs of the oil group moving "back to petroleum". snip
In April the company closed a range of solar power manufacturing plants in Spain and the US with the loss of 620 jobs snip

Hayward has also moved BP into more controversial oil areas, such as Canada's tar sands, creating an impression that he has given up on the objectives of his predecessor, Lord Browne, to take the company "Beyond Petroleum".

[dorlomin]

Light on details

Sinopec, the Chinese oil and gas group, said on Monday that it was in talks with BP over potential collaboration in the exploration and development of shale gas. The move underlines growing international interest in China’s shale gas fields.

In a company newsletter, Sinopec said the talks were going “smoothly” and that any deal would help China use foreign technology to speed up the development of its potentially large shale gas reserves.

But it looks much more speculative drilling than actual resources to exploit at this point.

[eXpat]

Why am I not surprised???
BP told to stop circulating settlement agreements with coastal Alabamians

Alabama Attorney General Troy King said tonight that he has told representatives of BP Plc. that they should stop circulating settlement agreements among coastal Alabamians.

The agreements, King said, essentially require that people give up the right to sue in exchange for payment of up to $5,000. King said BP's efforts were particularly strong in Bayou La Batre.

The attorney general said he is prohibited from giving legal advice to private citizens, but added that "people need to proceed with caution and understand the ramifications before signing something like that."They should seek appropriate counsel to make sure their rights are protected," King said.

By the end of Sunday, BP aimed to sign up 500 fishing boats in Alabama, Mississippi and Florida to deploy boom. BP had distributed a contract to fishermen it was hiring that waived their right to sue BP and required confidentiality and other items, sparking protests in Louisiana and elsewhere.

blog This attempt may (for the time being) have failed, but I´m sure there will be more of this.

[mcgowanjm]

Just lying scum.

See Texas City Refinery for details.

I think I can be a little more certain. You can't make that argument yet. If BP can't shut off the flow of oil within the next month the amount of oil released into the Gulf will be larger than any spill in human history. We're talking about oil slicks stretching from New Orleans to the East Coast of Florida. For Florida's economy, that puts at risk $57 billion, not counting the effect on real estate and fishing.

If, in a true worst-case scenario, oil lingers near an urban area like Mobile or New Orleans for weeks it will make the experience of living in those places unbearable. Residents in New Orleans are already complaining of respiratory problems related to a slick that is still more than 70 miles from the city.

In addition, we've never been confronted with a situation where gallons and gallons of chemical dispersants are dumped into the ocean for weeks and weeks. These chemicals create what are called PAHs, which are consumed by fish and marine life. These chemicals, which were not widely used in Prince William Sound, were found to be a grave risk to human health if you consume seafood that has ingested them. For BP's containment efforts to be successful at this scale, the entire world's existing supply of dispersant will have to be used in the Gulf.

The real comparison is something like Chernobyl. There will be deaths related to this disaster over the long run. You can't place chemicals that are so toxic next to human habitation for such an extended period of time without endangering human health. Is there any industrial activity that can be sustained if the risks to human health and other economic endeavors is so large? Does the oil industry have the right to unilaterally endanger the profits of every other industry on the Gulf Coast?

[mcgowanjm]

Personally, I'd take the $5 000.

Because nice legalities are over.

The Greatest Event in the History of your life
will be more on the lines of 1789.

See Kunstler today for details.

[Sixstrings]

Wow, who knew the British could be every bit as slimly as us Americans? Yikes. Stop for a moment and think about how crappy this is.. Big Oil Company ruins your fishing business with their undersea gushing volcano of oil, then said Oil Company "hires" you to clean up the mess but the catch is you can't sue them for the damage they caused you in the first place.

Incidentally.. BP just posted 5.5 BILLION in profits (not revenue, profits) for just the last quarter.

[Novus]

BP is a multinational corporation beyond the ability of one nation to regulate or control. They are NOT British and have no sense of duty or obligation to any nation. They are in it for the money and that it is all. Corporate profits without corporate responsibility is little more than blood money. Enjoy your eco collapse America.