[Concerned]

welcome aboard.

Saddle up partner, strap on your seat belt and enjoy the ride.

[freefall]

First off a big hello.

I've been following political events for a while now and am convinced that oil supply issues are driving or effecting political thought. Firstly there was 911 and the invasion of Pipelineistan thereafter. Then the Iraq war, after all, there be terrorists there and indeed oil. I guess selling oil in euros was a big mistake as well. The rumblings with Iran continue. Russia has used a sub to plant a flag on the seabed of the artic. Every other country and their dog is laying claim as well. Then there is 'save the planet' by reducing your carbon footprint. I wonder where the carbon came from? Then the countless hours of mind numbing 'spin' to make people reduce the amount of energy they use etc etc.

So how bad is it?

Should i dig out my leathers, and check the supercharger on my V8 interceptor?

Is the end nigh?

How bad is this situation?

Whats the current thinking amongst the regulars here. How much time is left before things go badly wrong?

Im off to go and learn from this forum.

Thanks for your time.

[TheTurtle]

Welcome, freefall! I recommend the Planning for the Future forum.

[Pops]

High freefall.

Check out the various forums to make your own assessment of the situation and timeline - they are all over the map – sorta-speak.

Then do as Turtle suggests and click on the Planning Forum Index thread to find some help with your plans.

[Twilight]

How bad is this situation?

Depends who you ask. If you ask me, Great Depression / Collapse of the Soviet Union type of bad. Around here that's probably average. Welcome, take everything with a pinch of salt.

[mkwin]

How bad is this situation?

Depends mostly on the the rate of decline in oil supplies. A 2-3% decline rate and we have a good chance of adjusting to a certain extent. 5-7% or more and a it is likely there will be some kind of collapse.

[thuja]

We are likely just past the global peak production of oil. We are starting to see a small downturn in production but we are at what is called the "plateau phase" of production. Soon we will be declining in production rather rapidly- perhaps 3-5 % a year. This will lead to us having at the most half our current production levels by 2030.

To give you an idea of how scary that is, when the Saudis removed 5 % of the world's production of oil back in the 70's, the world went into a prolonged recession, inflation soared and interest rates eventually went through the roof. Now try thinking about a 50 % reduction in oil in just over 20 years. Very very scary indeed.

So...the mood is highly cynical, or should I say uber-doomeristic here on the boards right now. Not much talk of mitigation, community planning...just Annie-get-your-gun, bar the door and wait for the 4 riders.

In terms of planning- Pops is right- check out the planning section, and its time to think very quickly about your

-location (especially in terms of Global Warming)
-Developing Post-Peak skills
-What you are doing with your money
-Career/job focus in light of likely Depression
-Who your community is

Good luck and welcome aboard.

[americandream]

The end is nigh......repent if ye be a sinner!

[freefall]

Hi and thanks for the info.

Now im worried. Its concerning to hear intelligent people talk in these terms. Im not overly concerned about climate change tbh. I dont doubt that man has had an effect on the climate, but I see climate change as a tool to quitely force people & society into reducing there levels of energy consumption / carbon footprint. I know diddly squat about climate change. That said & IIRC carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans. This is dependant upon the temperature of the ocean. The warmer the fluid / ocean the less Co2 absorbtion. The more Co2 in the atmosphere the warmer it gets. The ice caps melt, which chill the ocean & Co2 absorbtion increases. Im no doubt wrong, but thats my thinking. Equally, I've not heard a politican talk about trying to save the Brazillian Rain forests aka the 'earths lungs'. If they are truly loosing sleep over climate change, then why not threaten Brazil will sanctions or offer incentives to protect / regrow the 'earths lungs'? Why is there no mass tree planting campaign? Why are the sanctions aimed at Iran?

Perhaps our future lays in emergent or even suppressed technologies. Nothing overly esoteric like water powered cars or free energy generators, but i hope a sane mind will jump in and end the looming, in fact, ongoing oil wars before things become truly stupid. Im not sure how much money has been spent on the 'war on terrorism', but if that money where pumped into research for new energy sources, as opposed to killing people to protect the old energy sources, then that would be a step in the right direction.

Another thing i cannot work out is the recent cases of Foot and mouth and bluetongue in the UK. Its as if someone wants the livestock industry wiped out. What for, to plant bio fuel crops where cattle once stood?

I cant see governments allowing the entire collapse of their economy and the total failure of 'civilised' society. There must be a technological cure out there. I just think it needs a decent politician to come forward and tell the world that there is an oil supply issue. I guess you cant fix a problem if you dont know about it.

I still reckon i will sell my car and buy an electric scooter though...

[TheTurtle]

I cant see governments allowing the entire collapse of their economy and the total failure of 'civilised' society.

Read Jared Diamond's Collapse. That very thing has happened countless times throughout history.

There must be a technological cure out there.

Hmmm, that statement causes the cynical Turtle to think you're just pulling our collective leg. But I'll give you the benefit of doubt and not assume you are BobCousins come back to torture us with Cornucopian dreams.

I just think it needs a decent politician to come forward and tell the world that there is an oil supply issue. I guess you cant fix a problem if you dont know about it.

Jimmy Carter told the world that very thing 30 years ago and very few people wanted to listen.

[FoolYap]

Im not overly concerned about climate change tbh.

[...]

I know diddly squat about climate change.

If you take the time to learn more about it, I suspect you'll become concerned about it.

Personally, I'm at least concerned about global warming as peak oil. In some ways, global warming is the more worrying, because it's more difficult to see how we can avoid it. Peak oil is "merely" a problem with liquid fuels. We could replace some (not much, but some) of the declining oil with liquified coal, or processed tar sands. But obtaining those emit as much or (much) more CO2 as conventional oil.

We've already "baked in" a certain amount of damage from the CO2 we've already emitted. We're going to make it even worse if we respond to peak oil with these alternative fuels. Rising seas (displacing people, infiltrating aquifers with salt water), severe droughts (crop failure, fires), severe storms; these are things that could severely affect hundreds of millions of people.

Even if you're a mountain man living entirely off-grid and self-sufficient, not caring a white about peak oil, global warming is likely to affect you.

--Steve

[Revi]

Chris Skrebowski had a chart over on the Oil Drum a week or so ago. He predicts a plateau until the summer of 2009, after which point we start to lose 4% of world oil production per year. I am using that as a guide.

Preparation has to be done in the next few years, while we still have any resources to work with. The dollar is depreciating fast, but you still may be able to find a well insulated space you can heat with wood, solar hot water systems and many other things in the next few years.

Do something every day. I cut wood, get tools and work on things we will need every afternoon. I use it as my recreation. Peak oil preparation can be fun.

It's like getting your wood in. If you do a little every day it's not a hard chore at all. Good luck with it. These forums are the best place to find out what to do. I've learned a lot from them.

[freefall]

edited

[Blacksmith]

The end is nigh......repent if ye be a sinner!

We're all sinners at least as far as oil goes, however I blame it all on my parents, and my social ecomomic conditions.

[Ayame]

I cant see governments allowing the entire collapse of their economy and the total failure of 'civilised' society. [quote/]

They will have no control over the situation since they failed to start planning long ago. They will no doubt continue to turn a blind eye and bury their heads in the sand. They will also refuse to admit the the growth paradigm upon which our whole economic system is based must and will end. All this will mean that there will be little or no mitigation plans by the government and it will be business as usual until it becomes physically impossible to carry on.

I think with your worries about blue tongue etc. you give the government too much credit, I don't see the government as conspirators, I just see them as complete fucktards.

What you should be worrying about is the export land effect related to peak oil which will hasten the peak substantially. In short: as oil prices rise, oil exporting countries become wealthier and their people consume more oil thus decreasing the amount exported.

I still reckon i will sell my car and buy an electric scooter though...

I'm buying my scooter after Christmas.

[Ferretlover]

I recommend you start reading-there's gonna be a test on Monday! lol

[xsmatt26]

hello new here

love the site!

[like_the_dinosaurs]

Hello and Welcome. Don't blame this site if you need anti-depressants in a couple of weeks. lol

[Judgie]

Hello and Welcome. Don't blame this site if you need anti-depressants in a couple of weeks. lol

We're a mixed bunch here, but i'm sure you'll get used to it. At the bare minimum, the majority of discussions are always entertaining :D

[Carlhole]

hello new here

love the site!

What do you find most interesting?