Lugal wrote:And also, many people like myself have just recently stumbled on the concept of Peak Oil and want to see what other people, who know more, have to say about it.
The year 2005 continues to be the peak year for new mega projects coming onstream. Some 18 projects with a potential peak capacity of 3mn b/d are due onstream in 2005. For 2006 the pace of development eases back a little to 11 projects, with a capacity of around 2mn b/d.
...However, the bottom line is that between 2003 and 2007 some 8mn b/d of new capacity will have been brought onstream to meet global oil demand growth and to offset the decline in oil production from those areas that are already in decline.
Currently 21.3 mn b/d or around a third of the world's oil production is already in decline, the best estimate of the likely decline rate going forward is about 4%, made up of a typical onshore decline rate of around 3% and an offshore one of around 5%. On the basis of a 4% decline rate for one third of the world's production, global capacity declines by over 1 mn b/d each year. Global demand growth is once again expanding at over 1 mn b/d...
As a rough calculation, by early 2007 production capacity will have declined by 3-4 mn b/d (2004-2006), offset by the 8mn b/d of new capacity - giving up to 4 mn b/d of new capacity to meet demand growth of around 3mn b/d. However, this is before the additional capacity created from the development of all the smaller accumulations and the expansion of production in existing fields. In short, supplying global oil demand up to 2007 appears to be well covered adn, depending on the timing of new capacity and economic conditions, there may even be periods of relative price weakness.
If we look beyond 2007, however, the outlook becomes rather more problematic. Only three mega projects are so far known for 2007 and a further three for 2008. For 2009 and 2010 only the later stages of existing projects are currently known about. Consequently, the volumes of new production for this period are well below likely requirements.”
billions of people are going to die.
because such an outcome is not logical. We will not see the instant death of 90% of the world population. It will, instead, be a long slow decline that brings us down to the 1-2 billion people level say one hundred years from now.
Again I'd have to disagree. America will be involved in so many wars of attrition and occupation that it will be in no position to fight wars (not to mention the manifest increase in oil prices making it near impossible to field an international shock army.)
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