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Where are all the Peak Oilists?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Unread postby Atr0p0s » Thu 08 Apr 2004, 18:41:54

Scary stuff to read from my computer in the suburbs with a minivan in my driveway :\ I'll do what I can though, thanks pops.
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Unread postby VMA131Marine » Wed 07 Jul 2004, 20:08:54

Royale wrote:This is what was meant, I didn't bother elaborating. 100 years from now is a ridiculously short time frame for billions of people to die. There's no need to scare monger when faced with something like that.


Why is 100 years a ridiculously short time frame? There are currently over 6 billion people on the planet. Given that the average human lifespan is somewhere between 50 and 70 years it's no small stretch to say that in 100 years almost all the 6 billion currently alive will be dead.
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Unread postby Pops » Wed 07 Jul 2004, 20:19:17

Hi VMA, I don't think you’ll get a response from Royale. I think he was member No. 1 on the original member list but he’s long gone. We are a really young board.

I won’t disagree with your point though.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Thu 08 Jul 2004, 02:55:57

Atr0p0s wrote:Hey, John here. I'm 15 years old but relatively well educated when it comes to Peak Oil. I've read through most of the internet sources and some manuscripts of Peak Oil conferences and the likes. Ever since I heard about this about a month ago I've been preaching it to people, and I've become a firm believer in peak oil. But my views diverge from people who say

billions of people are going to die.


because such an outcome is not logical. We will not see the instant death of 90% of the world population. It will, instead, be a long slow decline that brings us down to the 1-2 billion people level say one hundred years from now. Other "scare mongers" also believe that there will be nuclear holocaust and widespread wars (www.aftertheoilcrash.net). Again I'd have to disagree. America will be involved in so many wars of attrition and occupation that it will be in no position to fight wars (not to mention the manifest increase in oil prices making it near impossible to field an international shock army.)

As much as I like to preach and debate ^^^ the sad fact is there's nothing I can do about it until I'm legally an adult. All I can do is try to walk or ride a bike a lot. And people tell me one person won't make a difference. Shows how active people are in trying to ameliorate things :\


I always laugh when people say I'm a scare monger and then turn around and say,

"Yeah, the population is going to decline (most likely from about 7 or 8 billion) down to 1 billion"

A population reduction of 80 percent?!!! That is about as scaring as it gets - and its' exactly what us "scaremongers" are predicting.

World War II had alot to do with oil: there was tons of it around and everybody wanted it.

Now theres not much of it around and everybody wants it even more.

How did WWII end?

Matt
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Peak oil is HERE!

Unread postby sheilach » Tue 20 Jul 2004, 14:47:41

We are fast running out of time to act and prepare ourselves for the decline to come.
It's unfortunate that most of us live in cities or huge, spread out suberbs with tiny yards too small for self sufficiancy. :cry:

Too many of us chose to have too many children inspite of the decades long warnings from people like Paul Ehrlich about overpopulation.
Those warnings were ignored by the economist who run "our" government and now we are in a impossible to solve mess.

I still am reading articles about how to geneticly modify crops to grow MORE food for the growing masses.
Why won't they learn that "feeding" the problem will only make it worse?

Why aren't they instead concentrating on better, cheaper BIRTH CONTROL? :roll:


We will not see the instant death of 90% of the world population. It will, instead, be a long slow decline that brings us down to the 1-2 billion people level say one hundred years from now. Other "scare mongers" also believe that there will be nuclear holocaust and widespread wars


I think the die off will take less than 100 years and I also think there will be many wars over the remaining oil and gas reserves, acts that will only hasten the decline of the very resources they fight over.
Anyway small-scale farming will be the way I intend to get my family through. But on the other side there will still be docs, vets, lawyers, judges and snakeoil salesmen, but probably only the ones prepared to live in the 19th century.

I agree, small scale farming will be the future and the more of us that can learn how to grow food, wood and fiber sustainablely will be in the best situation to survive the decline. :D
Most of us here will end up as one of the billions of "losers" in the struggle for survival, I will probably be one of them since I'm a old lady. :roll:

One advantage I do have however is living in a small coastal community far away from the big cities and overpopulated urban areas.

The weather is mild here but the growing season is short, there is plenty of water and with the rivers and ocean nearby, plenty of fish.
Our water is from a wilderness watershed so it's clean.

With wide fast rivers both north and south of our area, it's easy to defend against invaders escaping from the large cities to the south.

500 miles is a long walk however :wink:

The young will need to learn skills like black smithing, sustainable farming with NON-hybred seeds , sheep raising,weaving etc etc, and art and music as well.

A good library is a must! :D

things could crap out very quicky if our oil and gas imports are shut off for any reason.Expect a cold dark winter at times freqently this winter in many parts of the country, prepare!
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Unread postby Pops » Tue 20 Jul 2004, 15:39:07

It's interesting to see old threads brought up. I think this was the fourth thread on this site and one of the first I posted to. There certainly are more Peak Oilists here now, and at any one time there are 3-4 times as many guests as reg. users online. Page views passed ½ million recently and there are some very intelligent people here, but as Aaron pointed out somewhere you have to be fairly smart to do the research or even be interested in the first place.

Actually She. I think little old ladies are going to become a valuable resource! Hang in there.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Where ARE all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 26 Jul 2013, 12:46:52

Pops wrote:Hello all,

It seems to me that it is pretty obvious that any finite resource will have a mid point of availability. It isn’t a huge leap them to understand that the high point of discovery indicates the eventual high point of production. While economists can wax about “demand destruction” and “replacement technology” the difference is that this “commodity” is fundamental to our ENTIRE way of life, there is no replacement technology to this fantastically “dense” energy source and the few possibilities will take years and huge investments to even get close. Demand destruction in this case relates to the reduction of the world FOOD supply for kripe sakes!

Believe it or not, I didn’t come to “Peak Oil News” to debate (or rant) about the validity of peak oil, there are lots of sources of information and evidence available for those willing to read and decide for themselves. It is a very scary thing to get your head around, but here are our plans FWIW.

We are going the “Lone Farmer” route; relocating away from large populations, learning more agrarian skills, and preparing for the (hopefully) long slide. In the interim (5,10, ? years) I will continue working as a graphic designer, I can work anywhere there is dependable power and a satellite link to communicate with my rep back in town. This has been our plan for years for early/semi retirement, its just earlier than expected. We don’t look at it as a “bunker” so much as a “school” to teach our kids and grandkids (and ourselves) how our parents and grandparents got by without cheap oil.

We are “Ebaying” and yard-saling our late 20th century technology and replacing it with early 20th century technology; out with the electric guitar and in with the acoustic. Our small budget includes alternative power but also lots of “elbow grease” powered solutions.

I don’t believe there will be an oil “crash” soon, but there certainly could be an economic crash as the cost of oil and virtually everything else begins its inevitable rise. That is the wild card; how long do we have to prepare before the cost of preparing is out of reach or the necessities unavailable?

Pops


You know Pops I have to hand it too you, nine years and three months on you are still rock steady. As the first post you made here shows, you might have learned a lot here, but you never forgot why you came. Steady on!
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 26 Jul 2013, 16:48:03

haha a blast from the past T! I recognized the title right way. One thing I was way wrong about back then was the extent to which I'd come here to debate and rant, LOL
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re:

Unread postby Pops » Sat 27 Jul 2013, 14:09:33

Pops wrote:It seems to me that it is pretty obvious that any finite resource will have a mid point of availability. It isn’t a huge leap them to understand that the high point of discovery indicates the eventual high point of production.

Dang it T, after reading this I feel I need to spruce it up. I mushed 2 different ideas together in that passage and didn't make my point very elegantly at that, so I'm calling a mulligan.

Pops should have wrote:The extraction rate of a finite resource must begin at zero and end at zero with a maximum rate of flow somewhere between. Since extraction follows discovery, a plot of production roughly follows and resembles a plot of discovery shifted into the future some number of years.


Then I'd add a chart, probably one like this:

Image

and maybe my impressionistic vesion, lol...

Image


---------
It seems like this simple logic has been the thing lost over time. Redefinition of what constitutes oil by those doing the reporting - and by those doing the profiting: conflation of resource with reserve, technically recoverable vs economically recoverable, shale oil with oil shale, non-fuel liquids with fuels, volume expansion in processing.

If you can't find it you can't pump it and it is more obvious all the time the big regions have been found. Reserves grow as new "pockets" are discovered and technology improves but the time of giants is fading.

Image
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby sparky » Sat 27 Jul 2013, 17:29:10

.
pretty good read and some real good calls
Kenny » Wed 17 Mar 2004, 13:39:39 ............... get a clap , not bad prognostic
It feel like we are at the fulcrum point of production ,
balanced between demand and price in a no growth pattern
it is economically sustainable but there are a lot of debts blow out


I suppose we'll see how it turn out!
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 28 Jul 2013, 10:36:44

Nice work there Pops! Lots of grey areas to sort through, how much of what's discovered is actually recoverable, stuff like kerogen shale in the discovery mix with dubious utility, redefinitions etc. But keep up the good work!
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 28 Jul 2013, 11:05:57

Sparky - "fulcrum point". I like that...maybe better than "plateau". It gives a sense of movement/instability. Sorta like standing on a balance beam: OK until you fall off. Plateau sounds like a relatively safe place...it doesn't appear to be so.
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 28 Jul 2013, 16:53:21

Reading this thread made me wonder how Matt Savinar and Ken Deffeyes are doing these days? Do they regret the media attention they got around 2005 o do they wish hey were still in the spotlight now?
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby John_A » Sun 28 Jul 2013, 18:20:35

Subjectivist wrote:Reading this thread made me wonder how Matt Savinar and Ken Deffeyes are doing these days? Do they regret the media attention they got around 2005 o do they wish hey were still in the spotlight now?


Matt went for BAU in the form of becoming a lawyer astrologist.

PO.com, Sixstrings, April 1,2011 wrote:Long story short.. it appears there was forum drama, a lot of it. Savinnar had a William Shatner moment and told all his fans to go get a life, that he wasn't going to be their "doom daddy" anymore. People kept bitching (maybe they should have let him win the argument) so he shut the forum down. Then he closed it for good and took up astrological readings.


As of July, 2011 Deffeyes was still claiming peak oil still happened in 2005.

"2005 is still the year of greatest oil production. That makes me feel happy all the way down to the tips of my toes."

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/curren ... -07-a.html

He stopped posting at his website soon thereafter. Things that make you go mmmmm.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghd5weu5Mpg
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby John_A » Sun 28 Jul 2013, 19:48:32

pstarr wrote:Deffeyes is not a clown, you idiot. Deffeyes holds a B.S. in petroleum geology from the Colorado School of Mines and a Ph.D. in geology from Princeton University, studying under F.B. van Houten.


How clever of you, to cut and paste straight from Wiki. And no one was disputing his academic credentials, only his prediction, and defense, of his peak oil call in 2005, and his then multi-year disappearance.

As far as his oil and gas experience, you are aware that his world class expertise was primarily related to hard rock geology and uranium and whatnot, and that is where he dedicated his career? Obviously his area of study and world class knowledge (Nevada Basin and Range) and where he worked (New Jersey) weren't particularly conducive to oil and gas work.

And apparently you certainly can't give him credit for the coming plateau, and this appears to be when he was thinking that maybe 2004 was the peak year.

"Deffeyes predicts that world oil production will peak as early as next year, and it will be down hill from there."

http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2002/05/13/5183/

World class geologist for certain. But uranium ain't oil and gas.
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 29 Jul 2013, 01:34:39

John_A wrote:
As of July, 2011 Deffeyes was still claiming peak oil still happened in 2005.

"2005 is still the year of greatest oil production. That makes me feel happy all the way down to the tips of my toes."

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/curren ... -07-a.html

He stopped posting at his website soon thereafter. Things that make you go mmmmm.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghd5weu5Mpg


Confirmed by the IEA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK730U0Q4NU

The same can also be seen in BP data:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption

and the EIA (third chart):

http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 29 Jul 2013, 01:38:45

John_A wrote:World class geologist for certain. But uranium ain't oil and gas.


Hubbert actually referred to uranium:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_p ... _materials

The catch:

http://www.businessinsider.com/131-year ... il-2010-11

And for resources in general,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _footprint
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby dashster » Mon 29 Jul 2013, 21:54:54

ralfy wrote:
John_A wrote:
As of July, 2011 Deffeyes was still claiming peak oil still happened in 2005.

"2005 is still the year of greatest oil production. That makes me feel happy all the way down to the tips of my toes."

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/curren ... -07-a.html

He stopped posting at his website soon thereafter. Things that make you go mmmmm.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghd5weu5Mpg


Confirmed by the IEA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK730U0Q4NU

The same can also be seen in BP data:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption

and the EIA (third chart):

http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs


Those graphs could be scaled better for looking at peaks, but I don't see 2005 as being the peak in them. And in the second, I also don't see a world peak ex-USA in 2005 as they are explicitly claiming.
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Re: Where are all the Peak Oilists?

Unread postby peripato » Mon 29 Jul 2013, 22:11:55

Tad Patzek's still around and writing about oil, un-sustainability - the whole macro view. However he's now resigned, like many other peak oilers, to the sh*t completely hitting the fan, with everyone more or less clueless or in complete denial as it all unfolds.

I find this chart of his very illuminating on getting to grips with the oil picture (below is the commentary)...
Image
I set up this model of global oil production probably in 1995, or so, and never changed its parameters. I have only updated the blue data curve, which is a superposition of the old historic data from a variety of sources and the EIA data. By a lucky coincidence, or the Central Limit Theorem, or both, the world production of crude oil and lease condensate has been quite predictable for the last 17 years or so.

I want to point out that there will be future small Hubbert curves for the new Iraqi oil, GOM oil, the Arctic oil, etc., but the fundamentals will not change, just as they are unchanged for the Norwegian sector of the North Sea shown in my earlier post. At the time scale of this chart, the global oil production plateau surely looks like a peak.
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