There is also the topic of political stability. What is geologically possible is not always politically likely. Russia, for all its diversity and problems is nothing like the problems faced by West Africa.
But even if it is politically possible, the new oil is going to be harder and harder to extract (just like every where else):
Does anyone here think it is reasonable to believe West Africa will be producing more than West Siberia in five to seven years?
This isn't exactly my forte but I will take a stab at a reasonable answer.
West Siberia:
If we start with the chart above (I confess it is dated) and say that region of Africa will be producing 6.5 mbd
Today West Siberia is already producing less than 6 mbd. It peaked at 8mbd before the collapse of the Soviet Union and has recovered but is only estimated to remain at constant production for a few years before geological decline sets in (
Swedish thesis in English see page 34)
In that case I would say they are already roughly the same and any decrease in W. Siberia or increase in W. Africa would result in more production in W. Africa.
Perhaps you meant Russia as a whole @ ~9.5 - 10 mbd (depending on whose numbers you use)?
So Russian oil production would ned to drop a total of 35% between now and your 5-7 year window... so someone who is better than math than I could find more exact numbers but if the scribbles on my hand are right that would require a ~6% annual depletion starting
now.Given the parameters of the thought experiment (5-7 years; total russian production) I would say probably not since depletion would need to start now and go forward at a fairly good (but not impossible) clip.
I hope that was helpful. I will wait for the more technically competent to come along and corret me
.