[Jester]

No commodity seller, esp. one that is on fungible markets, wants to screw over their customers, esp. when their own economy is almost completely based on the profits of selling that commodity.

Of course that belief is rooted in the standard "If you won't give me what I want, I'll find someone else to supply me what I want!" way of open market systems.

If Russia did cut off oil, who's going to replace what they were supplying to the market? If there isn't anyone capable of meeting that supply, then the standard for that product cannot follow the typical parameters.

Whether the story is bull or not, there is reality in what Russia could do, unless other oil producers have a bunch of extra capacity they can bring online within a few days, and be nice enough to sell it for current rates instead of what spiked price would occur in the event of Russia doing this...

[threadbear]

As far as lies and disinfo, how would you know? Are you the Oracle, or are you in touch with one?

How about you check my locale in the profile?

We have a military game/exercise for special trained forces across the globe called Erna Journey, it mimics of the operations in WW2 in Estonia. Three years ago, Russia Today or something like that reported that it's an Waffen SS tribute and that real SS killing squad members are participating in the memory of Hitler. So I guess we are tough bunch indeed as it's a 100+ km extremely hard specop game that many teams made of young healthy people are not able to finish, but 90-100 year old SS dudes pass it with flying colours

Russian propaganda is so crazy, it's easy to see through it. The US media is catching up, though. As a former Soviet satellite country, you have to ask yourself, who would you rather be allied with? The US, a former democracy, rather quickly becoming a fascist state, or Russia, the devil you know?

[evilgenius]

I wonder how close he's getting!

Don't under estimate "Putin",, His goal is to make Russia the new number one super power of the world,, its in his blood and he has a good weapon and its called OIL..

He is also at odds with "Bush" over the nukes in Poland and now he is going to place his in Syria and make damn sure Iran gets there nukes also,, If the EU backsdown he will also win in his heart and to the Russian's he will be like the new Zar of Russia..

Has any one hear gave a deep thought of the world economy the day after Isreal bombs Iran,, Russia says it will defend Iran and the USA will defend Isreal,, Russia stops all oil output and Iran as well and shortly stops 40% of worlds oil from passing thur Indian ocean into the worlds energy market,, is there where it says in the Bible that the whole world will turn against Isreal for its action..

I don't know but my old Cold War hat says that the real thing to watch is where the nuclear fulcrum is positioned. Putin could strike if and only if the US was incapacitated in such a way as to not be able to strike back. That means two things will likely have to either happen by blind luck or be engineered. First the US has to lose militarily in the ME in such a way as to set back the military so much that it needs huge financial input to regain its former power. Second there would have to be a whopper of a recession/depression such that the US could not afford to restore its military. Yes, even in the first case the US would still have what it needed to retaliate, but it would need that capability to hold up its shell not only in the ME, but in the rest of the world. Even under condition of loss the US will still need to import oil and what is left of the US military after a loss in the ME would take that as a priority. It goes without saying that North Korea would take advantage of US weakness, so might a lot of small players.

Given the understanding of that environment any policy that pushes the US toward depression and military overcommitment is welcome by Russia, unless it overcommits them as well. There are lots of opportunities for effecting Iraqi politics away from the path the US wants them to take as well that Russia could exercise. And Russia is effectively using its Iranian proxy in the region to cause the US to lean toward overcommitment. Yes, the situation is close for them, very close or they would not have pulled the trigger on Georgia.

[TheDude]

Russia says will ensure oil to flow to Europe (guardian)

"STUPID INSINUATION"
Russian oil traders said they had heard of no cuts to export volumes and it would be almost impossible to mount a serious retaliation against Europe by cutting Druzhba volumes.
Russia's export crude also leaves the country by sea in tankers and Russia cannot control its ultimate destination.
"That (a cutoff of European supplies) is someone's stupid insinuation," a Moscow-based trader at a Western major said. "There is no point in that kind of sanctions. The West gets Russian oil by sea, one way or another."
"And what would Russia do with the oil? Put it back in the ground? And what about the fact that oil sales form the base of its currency inflows? There were buyers for Russian oil even at the height of the Cold War."
LUKOIL cut Druzhba supplies to Germany earlier this year in a dispute with Germany's supplier, Sunimex, but Germany mostly compensated for the loss of oil from the pipeline with seaborne deliveries, including tankers of LUKOIL's own crude.
"Only a sick mind would think of cutting off Europe," a trader at a Russian oil company said. "Technically it is practically impossible, since (Russian) refineries are running at maximum rates and it is difficult to arbitrage right now."
"You can't completely rule it out, though," the trader added. "Politics...always interferes with work."

Russia supplies 34% of Germany's oil - 714 kb/d. The oil weapon might not be happening but there's always the NG weapon.

From Reuters: FACTBOX- Russian oil and gas export interruptions

LONDON (Reuters) - Russia has cut oil and gas supplies to neighbors and indirectly to onward customers in recent years.

The following is a list of some supply interruptions and the reasons offered for them.

The Swedish Defence Research Agency, a government-linked body, said in a report in March 2006 that Russia had cut off exports on around 40 occasions.

Moscow denies that it uses energy as a political tool.

[Cabrone]

I don't care if the Russians say that it won't happen, the truth is that they have 'form' in this area - just ask the Ukranians.

Time for the inadequate politicians that run Europe to knock their heads together and get deadly serious about energy efficiency\cutting oil dependency ASAP.

A coherent European energy strategy and a continent wide super grid using renewables\biomass\nuclear\CCT from Europe\N.Africa would be a good start.

[timmac]

Well I guess its just a wait and see game..

But don't think Putin is just blowing smoke up our ass's,, he is bent on a quest of being the number one super power of the world.

Suppling nukes to Iran and Syria is only going to cause more problems in the middle east so Isreal will attack and this will bring on World War 3...

[Carlhole]

The crude oil market continues to yawn.

[dissident]

Sure thing, poor Ukraine. It decided not to pay for the gas and when Russia cut THEIR PORTION of the flow off they started stealing. Why don't you try to stiff your utility company and see how much charity you get.

I bet Bush's puppy Yuschenko is going to refuse to pay again this winter and "prove" once and for all how unreliable Russia is as a supplier. Actually it is quite absurd to talk about this now since NATO attacked Russian civilians and UN mandated peacekeepers on the night of August the 7, 2008. NATO should not expect Russia to care about what NATO feels. Puppy Yuschenko should not expect his little smear attempt to go soft on him. This time around Russia should and must cut off ALL gas flowing through Ukraine the moment his regime decides not to pay.

[allenwrench]

Putin "hand us Georgia or you go cold", next winter "hand us Poland or you go cold". Next winter "hand us Germany or you go cold"

...no one like to be cold is hard to have sex when freezing.
"We are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a Cold War," said President Dmitry Medvedev.
...good policy when butting heads with GWB

Mr Woolsey said the rapid move towards electric cars and other sources of power in the US and Europe means Russia's ability to use the oil weapon will soon be a diminishing asset. "Within a decade it will be very hard for Russia to push us around," he told The Daily Telegraph.

...sounds like wishful thinking to me

[allenwrench]

RUSSIA last night provoked fresh fears of a Cold War by boasting it has tested a new long-range nuclear missile. Moscow’s military chiefs revealed their Topol intercontinental stealth rocket had been fired successfully.

The Sun is There I think this is Russia's way of saying screw you.

intercontinental stealth rocket?

I never have heard of them. Did you guys ever hear about stealth rockets. They copied our F-117 and turned it into a rocket?
Was it outsourced to China?

Russians must have been planning some ruckus if they keep on building weapons in peaceful times. Or are peaceful times just used for reloading?

[allenwrench]

But don't think Putin is just blowing smoke up our ass's,, he is bent on a quest of being the number one super power of the world.

Don't know? They say China will be #1 superpower in the upcoming years with the US 2nd.

Do you see Russia 3rd or will the US go to hell even further to make room for Russia being #2?

As messed up as Russia is, it is hard to fantom the US sinking below Russia as a superpower. I mean who would ever want rubles over dollars?

Another question is how will China read all this? Will China say fudge this, we are not going to let Russia out do us and we are taking over some territory and maybe get some resources in the bargain?

[JPL]

Well it was bound to happen I guess. Given the current supply situation, every oil exporter with an axe to grind now wants to play at being 'Swing Producer'.

This is 'so' going to end badly. Not good...

JP

[timmac]

What I mean by Putin wanting Russia to be the number one super power is by means of military strength and pushing his comunism beliefs on to other countrys.

Also he seems to aligning with other oil rich nations as well and this gives him more power.

China will rule the world by producing cheap items and taking half of the worlds jobs and Russia will rule the world with there military and oil...

America will either be up in smoke from a Russian/Islamic sneak nuke attack or in a deep depresion brought on by our current goverment and not getting off of forign oil...

[EnergyUnlimited]

What I mean by Putin wanting Russia to be the number one super power is by means of military strength and pushing his comunism beliefs on to other countrys. Also he seems to aligning with other oil rich nations as well and this gives him more power.
China will rule the world by producing cheap items and taking half of the worlds jobs and Russia will rule the world with there military and oil... America will either be up in smoke from a Russian/Islamic sneak nuke attack or in a deep depresion brought on by our current goverment and not getting off of forign oil...

For long time I did not read such a BS.

1. Putin's Russia has nothing to do with communism. It is rather XIX century styled empire.

2. Cheap Chinese items will be of no use in a world with collapsing economy. Peoples who are struggling to pay for food, bills and basic daily needs will have no money to pay for Chinese plastic crap. Globalization is already collapsing.

3. America, if attacked with nukes will certainly retaliate and talks about stealth nuclear attacks on America are complete crap.
However West is general have far more to lose in nuclear exchange than Russia does. That is because there is not much infrastructure there (in Russia).

[TonisD]

That is because there is not much infrastructure there (in Russia).

Nuke the cities this side of the Urals and Chinese will make you their emperor. Even without PO, Russia is already finished. By 2030, Chinese would own everything on that side of the Urals and by 2100, Russia would be gone, replaced with Chinese and some last real ethnic Russians, who have not got HIV, have not been brutally exploited in the glorious Russian army where a couple of thousand young men die every year instead of having good, healthy and smart kids and have not been doing drugs every day since they were 10.

More people simply drink themselves to death with vodka over there than you can imagine. Outside the couple of big cities, they still live like its 1900 and that will never change.

[EnergyUnlimited]

That is because there is not much infrastructure there (in Russia).

Nuke the cities this side of the Urals and Chinese will make you their emperor. Even without PO, Russia is already finished. By 2030, Chinese would own everything on that side of the Urals and by 2100, Russia would be gone, replaced with Chinese and some last real ethnic Russians, who have not got HIV, have not been brutally exploited in the glorious Russian army where a couple of thousand young men die every year instead of having good, healthy and smart kids and have not been doing drugs every day since they were 10.
More people simply drink themselves to death with vodka over there than you can imagine. Outside the couple of big cities, they still live like its 1900 and that will never change.

So why not to nuke Chinese, if need arise?

1 or 2 thousands of warheads could easily reduce Chinese population by 90% (they are concentrated on South East coast of China in structure reminding one huge megacity few hundreds of miles across.

One of biggest of advantages of Russia is that it is a huge territory with not many obvious targets to nuke and yet armed well enough to annihilate remaining world.

Even if US sent all their nukes there, Russian life in countryside would not drastically change (I do not believe in nuclear winters etc.).
They are already living in environment resembling a Stone Age, so nuking them to actual Stone Age would leave a little impression on countryside population there.
They would drink more vodka (nearly all is home made...) and live at average 25 instead of current 50, but so what? Life would still go on.

[Alcassin]

Hmmm... Nothing will happen, Telegraph is just printing some more anti-Russian propaganda, nothing new, but it can...
...scare people. That's the point.

Russians are not going to put embargo on their major source of euros and dollars. It's economically stupid, and politically outrageous.

And all this crap that Russia is going to disappear in 100 years - oh, what are you smoking man, give me some. There no chance for another Yeltsin.

[threadbear]

What I mean by Putin wanting Russia to be the number one super power is by means of military strength and pushing his comunism beliefs on to other countrys.

The people who are doing the best to spread Communist beliefs are the Anglo American empire. By the time they are through trashing the entire globe, Communism might look pretty good, by comparison. Therein lies the huge threat.

[Carlhole]

Hmmm... Nothing will happen, Telegraph is just printing some more anti-Russian propaganda, nothing new, but it can......scare people. That's the point.
Russians are not going to put embargo on their major source of euros and dollars. It's economically stupid, and politically outrageous.
And all this crap that Russia is going to disappear in 100 years - oh, what are you smoking man, give me some. There no chance for another Yeltsin.

It's amazing how US and British media co-ordinate propaganda.

Personally, I think the British press is a little less propagandized than the US press but they are identical on certain specific topics -- the demonization of Russia is one of them.

[threadbear]

Hmmm... Nothing will happen, Telegraph is just printing some more anti-Russian propaganda, nothing new, but it can...scare people. That's the point.
Russians are not going to put embargo on their major source of euros and dollars. It's economically stupid, and politically outrageous.
And all this crap that Russia is going to disappear in 100 years - oh, what are you smoking man, give me some. There no chance for another Yeltsin.

It's amazing how US and British media co-ordinate propaganda. Personally, I think the British press is a little less propagandized than the US press but they are identical on certain specific topics -- the demonization of Russia is one of them.

Do some research into the David Kelly affair to understand how the decimation of BBC and it's value as an objective reporter and interpreter of world events has gone hand in hand with the run up to war and the subversion of mainstream media to the Anglo American corporate govt agenda. Truly sickening. Propaganda--We're soaking in it.