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Miocene Anthropocene Future

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 06 May 2019, 18:54:14

The Last of the Arctic's Old Sea Ice Is on the Verge of Vanishing
Not a good sign

https://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2019/05/the-l ... -vanishing
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 06 May 2019, 19:36:06

dissident wrote:So we had 350-405 ppmv CO2 which is actually not far from the typical amounts for inter-glacials.



Actually, the atmospheric CO2 level today was 414.10 ppmv.

And CO2 in the current interglacial was ca. 280 ppmv before the industrial revolution, so we're already up over 40% from the "typical amount for interglacials."

dissident wrote:Considering that humanity will not stop emitting CO2 at the 30 billion ton per year level for the decades to come, we are going to see something much worse than this particular period saw. We will warm the oceans enough to stop them from being net sinks for CO2. This will uncork a genie of self-sustaining warming for the coming centuries with impact lasting hundreds of thousands of years into the future. Not only will the oceans start to degas from the vast pool of dissolved CO2 (50 times more than in the atmosphere) but the disruption of carbon reservoirs (clathrates, permafrost, and soil carbon oxidation) will be extreme. I think it is rather likely that 600 ppmv CO2 is not going to be the peak, but it will reach 1000 ppmv or more even if humans disappeared together with their CO2 generation.


I agree 100%.

dissident wrote: Wild animals will disappear when wild lands disappear or become uninhabitable. This is not going to happen by 2026.


No one knows the exactly dates that anything will happen in the future. However, If we get a collapse in human population at some time in the future due to agricultural disruption, animals will likely move into areas that humans abandon, just as has occurred in Chernobyl after the nuclear accident there. However, they will tend to be those animals adapted to the new, hotter climate.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Tue 07 May 2019, 08:55:03

We're headed to the eocene at the climate numbers we have now. We blew right by 400, and are adding more than 3 ppm per year nowadays. May as well take a peek at what it was like then:

https://www.astrobio.net/geology/how-ho ... earth/amp/

The interesting thing is that the arctic heats up to practically the same as everywhere else.

Once we melt that arctic ice we'll see what it's like...
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 May 2019, 09:09:33

Climate Change: Variations in Timing

Across the globe, in response to increases in heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. The rate of climatic change in the next century is expected to be significantly higher than it has been in the past. At our current rate of emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that CO2 levels in the atmosphere will double or triple during the next century, and the climate system will respond.

Scientists expect some portions of the Earth system to respond more rapidly to the changing composition of the atmosphere than others. For instance, the temperature of the atmosphere and the uppermost layer of the ocean are likely to adjust to new conditions more quickly than the deep ocean or thick ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica. As a result of the different response rates, scientists predict that regional climatic changes will vary. For example, climate models project that some areas will see more precipitation and others will have less. (reference: Ruddiman)
Rapid Changes

Climate scientists expect to see the following changes within decades to hundreds of years:

Retreating or vanishing glacial ice
Disappearance of year-round sea ice in the Arctic
Replacement of polar tundra by conifer forests

Slower Changes

The following changes are likely to occur over hundreds to thousands of years:

Changes in melt patterns on Greenland Ice Sheet
Increased rates of flows of ice streams in Greenland and Antarctica
Increase in thermal expansion of ocean
Disappearance of West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Ocean acidification (related to CO2 emissions rather than warming)
Decreases in ocean oxygen levels

Changes to the Seasons

Though Earth will always have distinct seasons because of its tilted axis, one expected signal of climate change is a shift in the length and character of summer and winter seasons. In general, summer temperatures will arrive earlier than they currently do, especially at high latitudes. Additionally, they will be hotter and last longer than they do now. Future winters will arrive later and be shorter and warmer. Around the world, climatologists have already observed increases in the number of days of record heat, and concurrent decreases in the number of days of record cold.
Using the Past to Predict the Future

While the climate record has no perfect analog for the changes we expect as a result of our dramatic increase in heat-trapping gases since the Industrial Revolution, we can use a climatic event that happened 55 million years ago—the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)—as an example of our potential climate future. At the time of the PETM, natural records (climate proxies) show that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere rose to 2000 parts per million within the span of 10,000 years. Subsequently, Earth’s average global temperature rose by approximately 11 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius). The result of this rapid temperature increase wiped out plants and animals that couldn’t adapt to the new conditions.

Whether current plants and animals will be able to adapt to upcoming changes in climate remains an open question. Just as in past climatic shifts, some species will flourish while others will struggle, or simply vanish. Exactly how future climate will develop is an ongoing question – one that is being closely monitored by scientists and citizens around the world.


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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Wed 15 May 2019, 10:50:01

I think it will be a relatively quick event, like the self clean cycle in an oven, but long enough to cook all of us off the planet. It may last a couple of thousand years or so. We'll be all gone pretty quickly, then it slowly goes back into an ice age. Both are not going to be kind to the remnant population of humans...
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 15 May 2019, 12:40:51

Revi wrote:I think it will be a relatively quick event, like the self clean cycle in an oven, but long enough to cook all of us off the planet. It may last a couple of thousand years or so. We'll be all gone pretty quickly, then it slowly goes back into an ice age. Both are not going to be kind to the remnant population of humans...


Great analogy. I find that comforting, that the Earth can eventually restore it's balance (without us).
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 May 2019, 13:11:40

Revi wrote:I think it will be a relatively quick event, like the self clean cycle in an oven, but long enough to cook all of us off the planet. It may last a couple of thousand years or so. We'll be all gone pretty quickly, then it slowly goes back into an ice age. Both are not going to be kind to the remnant population of humans...


I think it will be violent, nasty, brutal, painful, and prolonged.

Once the knock-on effects from global warming lead to flooding of coastal cities and forest fires burning off many temperate forests and river flow declining and disappearing and major drops in food productivity from regions that used to be the "breadbaskets" of the world but now are turning into deserts and/or lakes, every society in earth will under immense stress. There will be whole lot of countries that aren't going to go down without a fight. I expect fights at the border to keep disparate refugees out, I expect fights between countries over agricultural areas that can still produce food, and I expect nuclear wars between various nations that just don't like each other.

I expect war, plague, famine, pestilence, and everything that goes with it.

I expect a few places won't get involved (Switzerland, maybe? Sweden?) but most places will progressively become much like hell......very hot and full of torrured souls.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 15 May 2019, 14:09:09

You guys continue to be focused on the side of the correction that needs correcting and calling this apocalyptic. It's the opposite.The other side is the reversal of the human footprint on the planet. The great tide of parasitic humanity recedes and begins to open up vast areas of human landscapes to the recolonization of displaced flora and fauna.

Stop being so fucking human centric all the time guys and gals.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 May 2019, 14:32:56

Ibon wrote:You guys continue to be focused on the side of the correction that needs correcting and calling this apocalyptic. It's the opposite.The other side is the reversal of the human footprint on the planet. The great tide of parasitic humanity recedes and begins to open up vast areas of human landscapes to the recolonization of displaced flora and fauna.

Stop being so fucking human centric all the time guys and gals.


More or less agree. Where I live about 20% of the farmland has been allowed to revert to wild woodlot as the farms too small to compete with the corporate megafarms went broke over the last 40 years. Its sad for those families, but the deer and coyote populations had rebounded to levels most would not think possible back in the 1960's.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 May 2019, 18:04:35

Ibon wrote:The great tide of parasitic humanity recedes and begins to open up vast areas of human landscapes to the recolonization of displaced flora and fauna.

Stop being so fucking human centric all the time guys and gals.


It is highly unlike that humans will be hit hard and other species will just replace us. Mass extinctions don't work that way.

When the climate goes haywire and a mass extinction event occurs, it decimates ALL life on earth. Some past mass extinctions events have taken out 20-30% of all species, but the one at the end of the Permian is thought to have exterminated over 90% of all the species on earth.

There is no reason to think this current mass extinction event will operate differently then those that happened in the past, so chances are that humans and their civilization and a large percentage of all the species on earth will all go into the dustbin of history together.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 15 May 2019, 18:52:17

A Doctor Strangelove just, maybe, will appear with a solution to this dilemma.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 15 May 2019, 21:08:25

The linked article and associated reference, discusses a number of relatively recent paleo multi-century-scale abrupt deep-water warming events associated with a slowing of the MOC/AMOC. Further it notes that one such abrupt multi-century-scale deep-water slowing event has been underway for the about the last century and that:

'If further weakening happens in the future, there may be unexpectedly broad implications not only on our atmospheric and ocean systems, but also on Earth's ecological systems and our society.'

Regarding Dr. Yasuhara's comment that such multi-century-scale MOC slowing event may broadly change our atmosphere; indicates that if the WAIS were to begin a MICI-type of collapse beginning around 2040; then we could see abrupt changes in the atmosphere, such as the significant telecommunication of energy associated with water evaporation from the tropical oceans moving rapidly poleward through the atmosphere. This represents a significant climate risk to the stability of modern society.

Title: "Century-Scale Deep-Water Circulation Dynamics in the North Atlantic Ocean"

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-century-s ... north.html

Extract: "Dr. Yasuhara and his collaborators showed that subtropical North Atlantic intermediate-water temperature varied significantly during both of these time periods, based on trace element geochemistry of calcified shells of deep-sea microcrustacean Ostracoda in a sediment core. Their reconstructions reveal a series of multi-century-scale abrupt deep-water warming events likely caused by the reduction deep-water circulation. The authors also discovered that many of these weakening events of deep-water circulation can be widely recognized in the western North Atlantic.

Lead author of the study Dr. Yasuhara said "Holocene deep-water circulation was more dynamic than previously thought. There is increasing evidence that this circulation change in the North Atlantic affects climates of remote places including East Asia and also marine and terrestrial ecosystems. As recently discovered by scientists including my HKU colleagues Drs Benoit Thibodeau and Christelle Not, this global deep-water circulation has substantially weakened during the last century.

If further weakening happens in the future, there may be unexpectedly broad implications not only on our atmospheric and ocean systems, but also on Earth's ecological systems and our society.
"

See also:

Moriaki Yasuhara et al. (2019), "North Atlantic intermediate water variability over the past 20,000 years", Geology, https://doi.org/10.1130/G46161.1

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/ge ... ility-over

Abstract: "North Atlantic intermediate-water temperature variations based on ostracod Mg/Ca ratios from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 1055B document a series of multi-centennial-scale abrupt warming events throughout the last deglaciation and Holocene (up to ~3 °C). These events are coherent with abrupt climate reversals including Heinrich event 1, the Younger Dryas–Intra-Allerød cold period, and Holocene North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) reduction periods. Deglacial–Holocene warm events were likely related to reduction in the strength of the upper NADW (Labrador Sea Water). We also found a long-term cooling trend in the ODP 1055 Mg/Ca record indicating continuous Labrador Sea Water strengthening throughout the Holocene. Our results help to better understand deglacial–Holocene upper NADW dynamics that remain poorly understood but can be important for regional and global climates."

;;;;;;;;;;

Many species could be even more likely to go extinct than we realise


https://phys.org/news/2019-05-species-e ... alise.html

A new study published in the Journal of Applied Ecology found that some methods for measuring a species' generation time might underestimate the likelihood that some species will die out.

... The challenge of accurately assessing extinction risk begins with a lack of data on endangered species. Even for mammals and birds – which are the most well studied groups – population data covers a mere 4.4% of the 1,079 threatened mammals and 3.5% of the 1,183 threatened birds. To bridge the gaps, scientists often rely on assumptions regarding survival, reproduction and generation time.

We found that in some risk assessment models that rely on these assumptions, errors can emerge. This is because population reduction in some of the assessed models is measured on the scale of three times a species' generation time. If a species is believed to mature and produce offspring in five years, then how much its population has declined will be measured over a 15-year interval.

But if a species' generation time is underestimated, population reduction is measured over a much shorter time period. It therefore underestimates how much the population is shrinking and, in turn, the threat status of the species. This can lead us to believe that the species is less endangered than it really is.


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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 16 May 2019, 19:25:25

Carbon dioxide hits a level not seen for 3 million years. Here's what that means for climate change — and humanity.

Scientists are sounding the alarm over the potential for catastrophic changes to our environment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/ca ... cna1005231

Sooo, we're already well into the Pliocene. How soon will we be hitting Miocene levels? And what is the most accurate estimate of CO2e levels now, anyway...that's what we really should be looking at, it seems to me.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Fri 17 May 2019, 08:53:27

dohboi wrote:Carbon dioxide hits a level not seen for 3 million years. Here's what that means for climate change — and humanity.

Scientists are sounding the alarm over the potential for catastrophic changes to our environment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/ca ... cna1005231

Sooo, we're already well into the Pliocene. How soon will we be hitting Miocene levels? And what is the most accurate estimate of CO2e levels now, anyway...that's what we really should be looking at, it seems to me.


This is a scary quote from the article:
“We’re not going to see the full consequences of 415 parts per million of carbon dioxide today,” Jackson said. “It’ll take a thousand years of people — 30 generations of people — to pay the price of what we’re doing today.”
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 17 May 2019, 10:09:59

Plantagenet wrote:
It is highly unlike that humans will be hit hard and other species will just replace us. Mass extinctions don't work that way.

When the climate goes haywire and a mass extinction event occurs, it decimates ALL life on earth.


Why do I even bother still coming here engaging in dialogue with amateurs?

Humans and their slave animals and crops have blanketed 45% of terrestrial earth. I can name off the top of my head 15 species that make up this juggernaut; humans, corn, soy, rice, cattle, pigs, chickens, dogs, potatoes, oil palm, plantains, sweet potatoes, sorghum, yams. Before we go further consider that a dairy cow or GMO corn cannot exist without the petro chemicals and industrial agriculture that supports it, these are genetically selected organisms married to industrial agriculture and if released in the wild will not even produce one generation of offspring.

Those 15 species you put on one column. On the other column you have tens of millions of species, many still not classified, all of that inventory of refuge biodiversity humming along in intact ecosystems. On any altitude or latitude gradient you can see within even one species a rich genetic gene pool with adaptability across a suite of environmental parameters including temperature, rainfall, food sources etc.

Yes, climate change will effect both columns. And yes, climate change will put a dent into those hundreds of millions of species making up the biodiversity of natural ecosystems.

But in terms of adaptability to change there is no contest when comparing the vulnerability of whats in column 1 vs whats in column 2.

Climate change is one of the important vectors to correct human overshoot. Disproportionately it will effect humans and their slave crops and animals. And when that retreat happens the speed at which natural ecosystems will recolonize former human landscapes will be astonishing.

In the tropics there are ficus tree roots just waiting to get a foothold on concrete.

Pioneer species around the planet buying their time waiting in the shadows, in the flash of a moment of geologic time they will make this current incarnation of Kudzu Ape irrelevant.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 17 May 2019, 13:29:49

That's heartening to know Ibon.

It appears we are heading for two extinction events, one in the near term and one in the long term.

Ibon mentions the near term event, and that is the one we will experience.

I'm pretty sure that we have nothing to worry about the long term event as none of us, or our offspring, will be alive for that one.

Ibon is right in that even if there were a significant environmental extinction event, it will still be much better than what mankind has been wreaking on the animal kingdom to date.

[I shouldn't fail to mention that the sooner, the better, as well!]
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 17 May 2019, 18:36:46

Ibon wrote:Why do I even bother still coming here engaging in dialogue with amateurs?


Perhaps for the same reason the rest of us do. Sometimes you learn something and sometimes its good for some yuks.

Ibon wrote:... yes, climate change will put a dent into those hundreds of millions of species making up the biodiversity of natural ecosystems.


I'm glad to see you agree with me on that. The UN says much the same thing---just last week they released a report saying we're looking at large losses of species in the near future.

Ibon wrote:Climate change is one of the important vectors to correct human overshoot. Disproportionately it will effect humans and their slave crops and animals. And when that retreat happens the speed at which natural ecosystems will recolonize former human landscapes will be astonishing.

In the tropics there are ficus tree roots just waiting to get a foothold on concrete.

Pioneer species around the planet buying their time waiting in the shadows, in the flash of a moment of geologic time they will make this current incarnation of Kudzu Ape irrelevant.


That may be so. But climate change isn't going to stop the instant that happens leaving those ficus trees happily growing up through the concrete in now-abandoned human cities......as the planet warms it is creating feedback loops which will lead to huge releases from natural carbon reservoirs that will dwarf the current anthropogenic CO2 releases. Already CO2, CH4 and NO2 are being released from permafrost, amplifying and increasing the warming caused by human CO2 releases. There are even bigger CO2 reservoirs on continental shelves that may also be released. The loss of humans isn't going to mean the end of global warming.....by the time humans are lost the planet itself will be set on course for more and more more global warming due to positive feedback responses to the ongoing global warming.

These changes will displace and destroy entire ecosystems. The size and scope of these changes are hard to predict exactly, but we do know from studies of paleo records that such changes have resulted in the loss of 20-90% of all species on earth during past mass extinction events.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 May 2019, 12:22:39

"intact ecosystems"

These are disappearing rapidly.

Previous mass extinctions eliminated up to 90% of all species. Most experts now think most of these were mostly driven by GW.

Ibon obviously knows this. So I am wondering if Ibon could inform our poor amateur a$$eS if he thinks that for some reason our current mass extinction event, driven not only by GW but by the many other disruptions humans have introduced into the physical and chemical environment, will be basically an extinction non-event, and why. :)
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 18 May 2019, 13:36:16

dohboi wrote:"intact ecosystems"

These are disappearing rapidly.

Previous mass extinctions eliminated up to 90% of all species. Most experts now think most of these were mostly driven by GW.

Ibon obviously knows this. So I am wondering if Ibon could inform our poor amateur a$$eS if he thinks that for some reason our current mass extinction event, driven not only by GW but by the many other disruptions humans have introduced into the physical and chemical environment, will be basically an extinction non-event, and why. :)


A bit over the top IMO. An average mass extinction killed off around 60-65% of life forms, only one exceeded 90%. Also whether a local ecosystem is viable or not varies wildly with location. The ecosystem in Chernobyl is complex nearly at the climax state it was before people started interfering and the same is true of most of the Taiga forest that circles the earth between 55-75 degrees north. On the other hand the ecosystems in India and Japan and on the island of Java have been simplified and minimized by human impacts eliminating natural spaces. Most of North and South America and Australia are somewhere in the middle because our human population density remains low. The same is true of Siberia which is mostly that Taiga forest I mentioned earlier. Also the Sahel, the great prairie zones of Africa, human impacts remain lower though in some places like Chad over grazing has caused disruption of the ecosystem.

Right now unfortunately or otherwise there is a population boom going on in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa so if nothing changes in another 50 years it could be just as gloomy as your statements imply. I don't think the climate flip will hold off that long however, and I expect that to be a mass depopulating event as food importing regions suffer massive famines.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 May 2019, 14:00:12

Good points (as usual), T.

One thing to keep in mind is that there is already a mass extinction going on, mostly NOT having to do with the damaging effects of GW. We will basically be piling another global mass extinction event on top of that as the more and more catastrophic effects of GW start piling on. So I expect it will be more like the Permian-Triasic greatest mass extinction (since the evolution of complex life), or worse, rather than one of the 'lesser' ones, horrific as even that level would be.

And as we know, the P-T event saw 96% of marine species vanish.

We can sit around and cheer about the 4% that made it, I suppose... :|
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