dissident wrote:So we had 350-405 ppmv CO2 which is actually not far from the typical amounts for inter-glacials.
dissident wrote:Considering that humanity will not stop emitting CO2 at the 30 billion ton per year level for the decades to come, we are going to see something much worse than this particular period saw. We will warm the oceans enough to stop them from being net sinks for CO2. This will uncork a genie of self-sustaining warming for the coming centuries with impact lasting hundreds of thousands of years into the future. Not only will the oceans start to degas from the vast pool of dissolved CO2 (50 times more than in the atmosphere) but the disruption of carbon reservoirs (clathrates, permafrost, and soil carbon oxidation) will be extreme. I think it is rather likely that 600 ppmv CO2 is not going to be the peak, but it will reach 1000 ppmv or more even if humans disappeared together with their CO2 generation.
dissident wrote: Wild animals will disappear when wild lands disappear or become uninhabitable. This is not going to happen by 2026.
Climate Change: Variations in Timing
Across the globe, in response to increases in heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. The rate of climatic change in the next century is expected to be significantly higher than it has been in the past. At our current rate of emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that CO2 levels in the atmosphere will double or triple during the next century, and the climate system will respond.
Scientists expect some portions of the Earth system to respond more rapidly to the changing composition of the atmosphere than others. For instance, the temperature of the atmosphere and the uppermost layer of the ocean are likely to adjust to new conditions more quickly than the deep ocean or thick ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica. As a result of the different response rates, scientists predict that regional climatic changes will vary. For example, climate models project that some areas will see more precipitation and others will have less. (reference: Ruddiman)
Rapid Changes
Climate scientists expect to see the following changes within decades to hundreds of years:
Retreating or vanishing glacial ice
Disappearance of year-round sea ice in the Arctic
Replacement of polar tundra by conifer forests
Slower Changes
The following changes are likely to occur over hundreds to thousands of years:
Changes in melt patterns on Greenland Ice Sheet
Increased rates of flows of ice streams in Greenland and Antarctica
Increase in thermal expansion of ocean
Disappearance of West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Ocean acidification (related to CO2 emissions rather than warming)
Decreases in ocean oxygen levels
Changes to the Seasons
Though Earth will always have distinct seasons because of its tilted axis, one expected signal of climate change is a shift in the length and character of summer and winter seasons. In general, summer temperatures will arrive earlier than they currently do, especially at high latitudes. Additionally, they will be hotter and last longer than they do now. Future winters will arrive later and be shorter and warmer. Around the world, climatologists have already observed increases in the number of days of record heat, and concurrent decreases in the number of days of record cold.
Using the Past to Predict the Future
While the climate record has no perfect analog for the changes we expect as a result of our dramatic increase in heat-trapping gases since the Industrial Revolution, we can use a climatic event that happened 55 million years ago—the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)—as an example of our potential climate future. At the time of the PETM, natural records (climate proxies) show that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere rose to 2000 parts per million within the span of 10,000 years. Subsequently, Earth’s average global temperature rose by approximately 11 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius). The result of this rapid temperature increase wiped out plants and animals that couldn’t adapt to the new conditions.
Whether current plants and animals will be able to adapt to upcoming changes in climate remains an open question. Just as in past climatic shifts, some species will flourish while others will struggle, or simply vanish. Exactly how future climate will develop is an ongoing question – one that is being closely monitored by scientists and citizens around the world.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Revi wrote:I think it will be a relatively quick event, like the self clean cycle in an oven, but long enough to cook all of us off the planet. It may last a couple of thousand years or so. We'll be all gone pretty quickly, then it slowly goes back into an ice age. Both are not going to be kind to the remnant population of humans...
Revi wrote:I think it will be a relatively quick event, like the self clean cycle in an oven, but long enough to cook all of us off the planet. It may last a couple of thousand years or so. We'll be all gone pretty quickly, then it slowly goes back into an ice age. Both are not going to be kind to the remnant population of humans...
Ibon wrote:You guys continue to be focused on the side of the correction that needs correcting and calling this apocalyptic. It's the opposite.The other side is the reversal of the human footprint on the planet. The great tide of parasitic humanity recedes and begins to open up vast areas of human landscapes to the recolonization of displaced flora and fauna.
Stop being so fucking human centric all the time guys and gals.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Ibon wrote:The great tide of parasitic humanity recedes and begins to open up vast areas of human landscapes to the recolonization of displaced flora and fauna.
Stop being so fucking human centric all the time guys and gals.
A new study published in the Journal of Applied Ecology found that some methods for measuring a species' generation time might underestimate the likelihood that some species will die out.
... The challenge of accurately assessing extinction risk begins with a lack of data on endangered species. Even for mammals and birds – which are the most well studied groups – population data covers a mere 4.4% of the 1,079 threatened mammals and 3.5% of the 1,183 threatened birds. To bridge the gaps, scientists often rely on assumptions regarding survival, reproduction and generation time.
We found that in some risk assessment models that rely on these assumptions, errors can emerge. This is because population reduction in some of the assessed models is measured on the scale of three times a species' generation time. If a species is believed to mature and produce offspring in five years, then how much its population has declined will be measured over a 15-year interval.
But if a species' generation time is underestimated, population reduction is measured over a much shorter time period. It therefore underestimates how much the population is shrinking and, in turn, the threat status of the species. This can lead us to believe that the species is less endangered than it really is.
dohboi wrote:Carbon dioxide hits a level not seen for 3 million years. Here's what that means for climate change — and humanity.
Scientists are sounding the alarm over the potential for catastrophic changes to our environment.
https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/ca ... cna1005231
Sooo, we're already well into the Pliocene. How soon will we be hitting Miocene levels? And what is the most accurate estimate of CO2e levels now, anyway...that's what we really should be looking at, it seems to me.
Plantagenet wrote:
It is highly unlike that humans will be hit hard and other species will just replace us. Mass extinctions don't work that way.
When the climate goes haywire and a mass extinction event occurs, it decimates ALL life on earth.
Ibon wrote:Why do I even bother still coming here engaging in dialogue with amateurs?
Ibon wrote:... yes, climate change will put a dent into those hundreds of millions of species making up the biodiversity of natural ecosystems.
Ibon wrote:Climate change is one of the important vectors to correct human overshoot. Disproportionately it will effect humans and their slave crops and animals. And when that retreat happens the speed at which natural ecosystems will recolonize former human landscapes will be astonishing.
In the tropics there are ficus tree roots just waiting to get a foothold on concrete.
Pioneer species around the planet buying their time waiting in the shadows, in the flash of a moment of geologic time they will make this current incarnation of Kudzu Ape irrelevant.
dohboi wrote:"intact ecosystems"
These are disappearing rapidly.
Previous mass extinctions eliminated up to 90% of all species. Most experts now think most of these were mostly driven by GW.
Ibon obviously knows this. So I am wondering if Ibon could inform our poor amateur a$$eS if he thinks that for some reason our current mass extinction event, driven not only by GW but by the many other disruptions humans have introduced into the physical and chemical environment, will be basically an extinction non-event, and why.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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