shortonoil wrote:.
I think it is more likely that each firm has taken a different perspective of the market. Goldman Sachs analysts might be looking at the fact that we are using 6 barrels to every 1 that we find and that most of the world's King and Queen fields are in decline. That will undoubtably result in increasing prices. Morgan Stanley analysts might be looking at the affect of the rising current account deficit and the collapse of the financial/monatary structure that will ensue. That scenario would result in drastically reduced demand and falling prices. The question of which one has the right answer will probably be determined by unknown factors.
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Morgan Stanley is not looking at the collapse you mention. Their advise doesn't make sense if this was true. Morgan Stanley's analyst is just seeing economic slowdown and sees a lot of leverage instead of real demands in the oil market.
What is interesting to note is that Morgan Stanley has not announce it has sold its oil interests. On the contrary, it has acquired oil firms and those firms are still actively buying oil as of last month.
shortonoil wrote:nth said:Morgan Stanley is not looking at the collapse you mention. Their advise doesn't make sense if this was true. Morgan Stanley's analyst is just seeing economic slowdown and sees a lot of leverage instead of real demands in the oil market.
What is interesting to note is that Morgan Stanley has not announce it has sold its oil interests. On the contrary, it has acquired oil firms and those firms are still actively buying oil as of last month.
By collapse I am referring to a 2000 dot com like bust. Even in the event of a 3000 Dow, oil will still be the most profitable commodity available. They are probably perfectly aware of the implications of oil depletion and they are probably perfectly aware of the long term profitablity of holding it. For these reasons I doubt if they will sell their oil interests and their acquistion of additional sources is not surprising.
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Using Morgan Stanley forecasts for oil prices, our central expectation is that energy prices faced by UK consumers in 2005 will be, on average, nearly 8% higher than in 2004.
shortonoil wrote:.
If this guy believes that tar sands are going to make a difference, he's probably not worth listening to. Tar sands are at best, only a small energy gain.
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nth wrote:Tar sands is not going to lower price of oil, but it is going to be a significant source for us.
Canada will reach 5mbpd and Venezeula if regime change like what Bush wants, will also reach in a couple mbpd.
No, Morgan Stanley is not advising clients that there will be a correction. The idea of correction is your idea not theirs.
Oil price forecast by Morgan Stanley...Using Morgan Stanley forecasts for oil prices, our central expectation is that energy prices faced by UK consumers in 2005 will be, on average, nearly 8% higher than in 2004.
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/di ... igest.html
clv101 wrote:The reason I don't say it's a good thing is that without recognising the energy disaster we won't even attempt to address it. We won't go on a major efficiency or alternatives drive. We'll just have one big, nasty, ever-deepening depression.
Yep, but depressions are not frozen states. Societies will start to reorganize themselves according to the new conditions. Dmitry Orlov describes how this happened in Russia in the 1990:s and the same will happen for us.
shortonoil wrote: Russia was not short on oil in 1990. Everything in our society is dependent on the availability of oil. Our present culture can not be rebuilt without a substitute for petroleum and as yet we aren't even close to accomplishing that feat. It is more probable that we will experience several generations of declining world population, poverty, wars and socio/economic disruption. A thousand year darkages could be in the making. We will probably just be another of the 360 odd civilizations that have come and gone in the history of man.
MD wrote:nth wrote:Tar sands is not going to lower price of oil, but it is going to be a significant source for us.
Canada will reach 5mbpd and Venezeula if regime change like what Bush wants, will also reach in a couple mbpd.
Tar sands will never supply our current market and cultural structure.
nth wrote:MD wrote:nth wrote:Tar sands is not going to lower price of oil, but it is going to be a significant source for us.
Canada will reach 5mbpd and Venezeula if regime change like what Bush wants, will also reach in a couple mbpd.
Tar sands will never supply our current market and cultural structure.
I hope you are not saying tar sands is not a significant source of oil.
MD wrote:nth wrote:MD wrote:nth wrote:Tar sands is not going to lower price of oil, but it is going to be a significant source for us.
Canada will reach 5mbpd and Venezeula if regime change like what Bush wants, will also reach in a couple mbpd.
Tar sands will never supply our current market and cultural structure.
I hope you are not saying tar sands is not a significant source of oil.
Your hope is realized, I am not saying tar sands are insignificant. Tar sands will never supply our current use model.
airstrip1 wrote:
No, Morgan Stanley is not advising clients that there will be a correction. The idea of correction is your idea not theirs.
Oil price forecast by Morgan Stanley...Using Morgan Stanley forecasts for oil prices, our central expectation is that energy prices faced by UK consumers in 2005 will be, on average, nearly 8% higher than in 2004.
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/di ... igest.html
I love these investment houses. They have an analyst backing every horse in the race so that whatever the result they can always state that they are on the winner.
I note that the original Yahoo article quoted the views of Any Xie who is Morgan Stanleys resident China expert in Hong Kong. I think his views on oil prices are based on his rather bearish oulook for the Chinese economy. Since he is not really an energy analyst I think his predictions need to be treated with a degree of caution.
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Raxozanne wrote:SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The oil market may be quickly headed for a massive crash as global economic growth slackens, alternative energy gains ground and financial traders sense a price peak, an economist with Morgan Stanley said on Thursday
source: Yahoo
Anyone got any opinions on this?
Andy Xie, Greater China economist, Morgan Stanley wrote:As evidence of weakening demand and ample supply accumulates, the market may panic, I believe it could correct in the most speculative fashion -- it could collapse.
They will likely keep prices up until an oil market collapse. That day is not too far away, I believe... What is occurring now is probably the final frenzy, in my view.
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