[abelardlindsay]

Hi guys. I am going to come right out and say it : I'm a neo-con. Not an official National Review columnist, that's just who I most agree with. I'm also that rare breed, an atheist neo-con. I know I am massively out-numbered here on the peak oil board by all you anti-neo-cons.

About being a neo-con, the shortest simplest explanation for my beliefs is that someone has to be the hegemonic superpower and it better be the United States rather than Russia or China. Everybody else doesn't care enough (India) or has a pathetic military (North Korea). To run the world we're going to need arms, energy and our friends in power in strategic areas of the world. If you look at inter-hegemonic periods such as between the US and British empire, from the decline beginning with World War One, to the end of World War II, when the U.S emerged as the Hegemon, a lot of bad things happened in between. Lefties like to make the U.S look bad by comparing the U.S to some perfect entity that always makes the right decision everytime and can have its cake and eat it to. To me the standard is not perfection, the standard is the alternative, a world under the sway of a non-U.S hegemon or with multiple evenly matched powers competing for control.

When there isn't a dominant power many countries emerge that try to stake their claim such as Germany, Russia, Japan, and Italy, etc. All of them thought they were going to run the world and all went to war. Peak Oil is going to be an even more screwed up period so better that the U.S is the one running things when the SHTF.

BTW, Global Corporations are not running things. They are very important partners in U.S power though but they are pretty much ideologically unconcerned with what happens to the world as long as they profit. Sure they want money, but guess who has the money? Well money is created when the U.S Government makes little important looking pieces of paper called Treasury Bonds and sells them to the Federal Reserve, The Federal Reserve of course makes money appear out of thin air and deposits it in the government's bank account. Whereby the banks lend it out 10 times in a row, through the wonder of fractional reserve banking. So the corporations really are controlled by the banks, government spending and tax liabilities. Of course us Neo-Cons like it when corporations do well because it increases the amount of military and economic power we have to work with because believe it or not corporations make STUFF and we need stuff to run a military and provide for the standard of living in the U.S.

It seems that anti-americans seem to congregate in gloom and doom sections of the internet whether it be peak oil discussions or bearish investment forums as they are not disturbed and even amenable to a collapse of U.S power.

BUT I DIGRESS

As far as peak oil goes, the U.S military is probably already preparing for peak oil and is going to make sure that we are in control of the worlds energy resources by using our soft power, making friends with the Saudis and Iraqis and Hard Power vs a vs the Iraq War, etc. That's all that really matters. When the SHTF if the U.S is in control of world oil supplies or at least they are being sold in dollars, the U.S is going to be running things, China will collapse in on itself. The U.S has huge reserves of coal which will help us fair better as well.

The U.S military is building Hybrid humvees... Because they care about the environment?! NOT! George Bush and Dick Cheney have Environmentalist fuel efficent solar powered dream homes because they are granola chomping hippies? NOT! Having strong ties to the oil industry, they know what's coming and are preparing for it.

If we keep the free market rolling along when peak oil hits it will help make the best out of a bad situation. There will be huge disruptions no doubt but rationing would be stupid. For instance, rationing away from automobile usage vs agriculture would lead to less fuel efficient agricultural methods and all kind of inefficiencies like how is the guy who knows how to make the fuel efficient tractors or wind generators going to commute to work, etc. How is the guy who makes the parts for his tractor going to get the fuel he needs for his blast furnace, etc, etc. There's a huge web of economic connections that will be destroyed by rationing that would otherwise help create a tidal strength economic push through the economy in all directions leading to alternative energy production and conservation. Anyone wonder why there is a six month wait for Prius hybrids now? Expect immense economic forces to start being unleashed over the next few years. Suburbia is going to implode, people are going to move to cities and concentrate. Air travel will become an exclusive boutique business.

It's going to be a wild ride down, especially when demand destruction hits. China is going to collapse in on itself and be really gruesome as the central planners re-assert and run around like crazy trying to ration the hell out of everything. They are probably going to lash out, which is why we need to keep up the military. I still think the U.S is going to be a good bet for Peak Oil. There's going to be lots of crime and the poor are going to get hit hard, mainly because they will be competing for survival with a lot of other poor people. Whereas they wouldn't have survived in the 18th century, they now live on top of the immense wealth that our industrial civilization provides, but this will soon be pulled out from underneath them.

One last thing, leftist governments were unintentionally wonderful to American power throughout the 20th century. They consumed few natural resources because their centrally planned economies were too disorganized to consume resources at the rates that the market economies of these countries are consuming them now.

Perhaps we'll see socialism reappear in certain areas of the world, if only because the cynical elitists (NOT THE NEO CONS OR THE IDEALISTIC LEFT) want to destroy foreign economies ability to consume resources, the extreme of this being Pol Pot style regiemes that believe that they can revert to pre-industrial agrarian wonderlands. How many barrels of oil a day do you think Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge regieme consumed a day? This kind of thing is brewing in Bolivia right now with the racist indigenous movements gaining strength there. I wouldn't be suprised for a lot of Africa to follow this way.

[generikan]

Its good to be optimistic and delusional.

[UIUCstudent01]

Thank you for posting. Gives some insight to what some major neocon players are thinking - you're just a grunt, but yeah, it seems like your thinking is right where I thought it would be.

I got a question. Do you think it is wise to make war for resources? Also, is it necessary? What do you think of the population boom? Are you looking forward to seeing the country being ripped apart by lack of resources (because the poor will probably kill each other even more)? or are you for a draft to get these resources and to lower the population a bit?

Since there will definitely be demand destruction of some sort, couldn't an agrarian society actually come out to be the more comfortable for the masses? (Instead of getting drafted/'fighting' with others..)

Do you put all bets toward biotech for the farming industry? (Because as far as I'm concerned, that could be the most substantial thing thing to hold the population at a higher level, while having a high potential of devestating local ecosystems. I can't decide. Ecosystems would be ravaged in the short term, while insects adapt and the plants return to being not as fruitful. Thus, we destroy the majority of our ecosystems for a little marginal gain in the short term, but a possible lower quality of life because the natural resources (such as local plants and animals) are destroyed. Of course, you don't care about that, we can synthesize everything for everyone.) Also, you mention coal, I hope you do realize that climate change by CO2 is real; and that, no peer-reviewed paper has ever been able to say it hasn't. Climate change would be a double whammy to species all over the planet as well, completely destroying the 'renewable' resources on the planet.

Oh yeah. No true neo-con is religious, not even Bush. I'm pretty sure its all an act. I'm atheist too. But, that's probably all we have in common.

Reality often times is 'doom and gloom'. It's just that you haven't stepped down from your high-horse-master-slave theory to realize it doesn't have to be. I'm all for capitalism - except when there is a limit to the resources involved and that resource is one of the most energy dense and useful things on the planet with no substitutes. And maybe if everything wasn't profit centered and instead, if it were resource centered people would work closer to their jobs. Capitalism doesn't conserve resources, there is no invisible hand in that, see: jevon's paradox It uses all the resources as fast as possible - while this is 'good' for other resources like labor (I think the creators of capitalism had this in mind), for oil it is not so good and has brought us to this point.

All in all, I hate you and your master-slave world-view with the world. It's filthy and disgusting - and if life were a stereotypical gradeschool sampling of kids, you would be the loudmouth-fat-bully constantly stuffing something in his mouth and stealing things. (Ironically, there was someone like that at my gradeschool, he also stole shoes and pairs of clothing. Take that for what you will.)

[tdrive]

To run the world we're going to need arms, energy and our friends in power in strategic areas of the world.

abelardlindsay, I feel your pain. I am so sorry about you since
you are so delusional that even if I try very hard I cannot help you.

leftist governments were unintentionally wonderful to American power throughout the 20th century. They consumed few natural resources because their centrally planned economies were too disorganized

Did you learn all this in school? I have been to all those places
and can tell you those and some other governments have wrecked they natural resources
so badly that today their women have to fuck foreigners to feed their children.

Cheers,

[Colorado-Valley]

All military empires eventually collapse after they overreach for natural resources and bankrupt themselves trying to control the world. The U.S.-Israel empire will collapse in about the same fashion that the Soviet Empire did.

Wide-scale corruption is already at work hollowing out the U.S. economy. It won't take long.

[abelardlindsay]

I got a question. Do you think it is wise to make war for resources?

I think this is the appropriate quote:

"You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you." - Leon Trotsky

Lots of people are going to perish due to peak oil. I think most people on this board agree with that. So it's going to be somebody and there's going to be a lot of war in the future with or without the U.S on a small and large scale. Somebody somewhere is going to wind up deciding who gets to eat and who doesn't and I don't think anyone is going to just let themselves or their loved ones starve to death easily. If the U.S isn't the one who has control over the wherwithall to ensure it's military hegemony all your small community conservationism,etc is not going to be worth an awful lot.

Also, is it necessary? What do you think of the population boom? Are you looking forward to seeing the country being ripped apart by lack of resources (because the poor will probably kill each other even more)? or are you for a draft to get these resources and to lower the population a bit?

I think that population is great! There are more smart people than ever creating lots of awesome and exciting things all over the world these days. I don't think the population has to be "lowered" that's a very non neo-con kind of thing to think. That's more of a Deep Ecology / Peter Singer idea and Peter Singer is not a neo-con and neither are Deep Ecologists. Why are both neo-cons and the religious right both anti-abortion, anti-birth control, anti forced sterilization? We're going to do the best we can through technology, conservation, etc. Though social order tends to revert to authoritarianism once mass starvation hits just as a general rule. That whole inconvenient who eats who doesn't kinda thing.

Since there will definitely be demand destruction of some sort, couldn't an agrarian society actually come out to be the more comfortable for the masses? (Instead of getting drafted/'fighting' with others..)

Well we're going to get to 1850 (with some nuclear power thrown in) one way or another. The hard part isn't what we do once we get there. Which will be some sort of agrarian society. The hard part is the getting there.

Do you put all bets toward biotech for the farming industry? (Because as far as I'm concerned, that could be the most substantial thing thing to hold the population at a higher level, while having a high potential of devestating local ecosystems. I can't decide. Ecosystems would be ravaged in the short term, while insects adapt and the plants return to being not as fruitful. Thus, we destroy the majority of our ecosystems for a little marginal gain in the short term, but a possible lower quality of life because the natural resources (such as local plants and animals) are destroyed. Of course, you don't care about that, we can synthesize everything for everyone.) Also, you mention coal, I hope you do realize that climate change by CO2 is real; and that, no peer-reviewed paper has ever been able to say it hasn't. Climate change would be a double whammy to species all over the planet as well, completely destroying the 'renewable' resources on the planet.

So which is more important? People starving to death or endangered species habitat protection. With less oil we are going to be farming a lot less land so we will have a much smaller impact on the environment anyway. If that land can produce better than maybe we can help the environment by using less of it as farmland and producing more with the smaller plots that we can farm more energy efficiently. It's not a zero sum game. I wonder if all those global warming models have peak oil figured in being that burning oil is where most of the CO2 comes from? I bet they just drew a straight line from here to infinitiy on population growth and oil consumption. Regardless, the ridiculousness that was the Kyoto treaty was just a way for China and India who are exempt from Kyoto to get the US to reduce consumption to let them get at the remaining oil. I was watching a UN Foreign Affairs show and the UN Climate change official said that China and India deserved to be exempt because they hadn't had the benefit of high consumption economies during the 20th century.

Oh yeah. No true neo-con is religious, not even Bush. I'm pretty sure its all an act. I'm atheist too. But, that's probably all we have in common.

Oh come on their has got to be at least one neo-con satan worshipper. Leftist always try to redefine everything very narrowly. Like what true Socialism is or what true Religion is. Religion means just about anything from what Mohammed Atta thinks it means to what a buddhist monk thinks it means. It means having faith in a higher power. I don't buy it. I think the world is a chatotic materialist machine that produces its own meaning to each of us through our subjective desires and our beliefs about how the universe works, scientific or otherwise.

Reality often times is 'doom and gloom'. It's just that you haven't stepped down from your high-horse-master-slave theory to realize it doesn't have to be. I'm all for capitalism - except when there is a limit to the resources involved and that resource is one of the most energy dense and useful things on the planet with no substitutes. And maybe if everything wasn't profit centered and instead, if it were resource centered people would work closer to their jobs. Capitalism doesn't conserve resources, there is no invisible hand in that, see: jevon's paradox It uses all the resources as fast as possible - while this is 'good' for other resources like labor (I think the creators of capitalism had this in mind), for oil it is not so good and has brought us to this point.

"high-horse-master-slave theory" - Someone has been listening to much to their college professor. You'll snap out of it a few years out of college. BTW, slavery is very very economically inefficient.

If you are going to stop the world from consuming oil you're going to have to go and take over the entire middle east and keep them from exporting to India and China. Maybe the Neo-Cons will even do that for you. Better vote Republican next election.

The prisoner's dillema /tragedy of the commons is real. The best way to deal with tragedy of the commons is tit-for-tat. Meaning, if you cooperate I'll cooperate, if you defect I'll defect. That's how all the great Neo-Con policies have worked such as MAD, Salt treaties, etc. Currently our major potential military adversaries are not really cooperating with the conservation part, hence tit for tat.

All in all, I hate you and your master-slave world-view with the world. It's filthy and disgusting - and if life were a stereotypical gradeschool sampling of kids, you would be the loudmouth-fat-bully constantly stuffing something in his mouth and stealing things. (Ironically, there was someone like that at my gradeschool, he also stole shoes and pairs of clothing. Take that for what you will.)

Wow you hate me now. At first you were thanking me for my opinion. I wish you would elaborate on this whole "Master-Slave idea" you think I hold. At least that's better than the guy who posted above you who thought I was optimistic.

[Barbara]

There's Peak Oil coming, and you have enough money to perfectly prepare your house as a farm: solar, insulating, heating, crops, livestocks, everything you need to live a transition without the slightest problem.
Or else, you can choose to spend all your money over weapons and live the transition stealing and robbering your neighboors.
Neocons choosed #2.

[abelardlindsay]

To run the world we're going to need arms, energy and our friends in power in strategic areas of the world.

abelardlindsay, I feel your pain. I am so sorry about you since
you are so delusional that even if I try very hard I cannot help you.

leftist governments were unintentionally wonderful to American power throughout the 20th century. They consumed few natural resources because their centrally planned economies were too disorganized

Did you learn all this in school? I have been to all those places
and can tell you those and some other governments have wrecked they natural resources
so badly that today their women have to fuck foreigners to feed their children.

Cheers,

They fuck foreigners in Thailand, Japan, Amsterdam, other capitalist places, and they're doing pretty well these days in Poland, Czech, etc. Anyway the point is that the communists countries weren't importing oil from the Middle East which the United States with its petro dollars got the large benefit of during the post world war II period. Look at a graph of per person oil consumption in China to see what I mean. Hint: All that oil they're consuming now is not produced domestically.

[abelardlindsay]

There's Peak Oil coming, and you have enough money to perfectly prepare your house as a farm: solar, insulating, heating, crops, livestocks, everything you need to live a transition without the slightest problem.
Or else, you can choose to spend all your money over weapons and live the transition stealing and robbering your neighboors.
Neocons choosed #2.

That's like saying you can either have a car without tires or you can have tires but you have to go around burning the tires and throwing them through shop windows.

I like 1 and I like having the current world political structure. I just think it's the best way to survive the peak. There are no easy answers, but as long as we can provide the best framework to keep techological development rolling along we'll do the best we possibly can.

[Keith_McClary]

When the SHTF if the U.S is in control of world oil supplies or at least they are being sold in dollars, the U.S is going to be running things, China will collapse in on itself. The U.S has huge reserves of coal which will help us fair better as well.

What happens if China tries to spend its billions of dollar reserves? The US exports soybeans, but even the Chinese can use only so much soy sauce. What else does the US export?

How can the US control world oil supplies other than by a military blockade of major consuming countries? This would mean blowing up oil tankers on the high seas. They wouuld be declaring war on both the producing and consuming countries.

[killJOY]

Some of us don't want to be invited to your death party.

Send your own goddamn family out to be slaughtered.

[energyaddict]

To me all that crap sounds like: We need that land in the east for our farmers and we need that resources over there for the brave german people. As the others do not intend to give it to us as a gift we have to grab it... That might have been the thoughts of Adolf Hitler and his brown vassals.

Why do you call yourself a Neo Con instead of calling yourself what you really are: A Neo Nazi.

I hope you and your Führer George Adolf Bush will die soon of starvation. I feel really sorry for all those brave americans who are aware of the mess they are in, but are unable to do anything against.

[julianj]

Well, we try to be inclusive here so you are welcome, if you are a real person,

and it's not Aaron or Ayoob_RL doing one of their satirical wind-ups, if so its brilliant

Its nice to hear the genuine, humourless voice of the enemy. (My only question is why Neo-cons have no sense of humour). Genrikan was *being sarcastic* but you missed that.

And you've upset my friend Energy Addict: Germans for some reason, are extra-sensitive to fascism. Chill EA!

Have you read Powerdown by Heinburg? I rather suspect not.

Your plan is one option. It involves a lot of death and suffering, in my view much of which is avoidable. And will inevitably fail.

One thing I particularly think is that, when the US people realise they've been scammed, they are going to be very angry. Generally when Empires fall, a lot of unpleasantness happens to those at the top. So I wish you good luck, you may need it more than those of us who have rather smaller ambitions than to install hegemony by force on the whole world.

Now, last night I saw the awesome German film [B]Downfall[/] (Der Untergang; dir. Oliver Hirschbiegel 2005).
Downfall C4 review

It's a harrowing reconstruction of the last days of Hitler in his bunker. (sorry, I'm not digressing) It depicts a group of people in the extreme stages of delusion, the concrete bunker being a physical reflection of their disconnection wth reality. I think that you Neo-cons seem also to have a cast-iron grip on your delusions. Perhaps you should see it to check out what happens when things go wrong in these global domination type schemes, so you're prepared

There's a peak oil saying "Deal with Reality before Reality deals with you."

I recommend that. But I doubt you'll follow this advice.

[abelardlindsay]

When the SHTF if the U.S is in control of world oil supplies or at least they are being sold in dollars, the U.S is going to be running things, China will collapse in on itself. The U.S has huge reserves of coal which will help us fair better as well.

What happens if China tries to spend its billions of dollar reserves? The US exports soybeans, but even the Chinese can use only so much soy sauce. What else does the US export?

How can the US control world oil supplies other than by a military blockade of major consuming countries? This would mean blowing up oil tankers on the high seas. They wouuld be declaring war on both the producing and consuming countries.

Hey everybody, before you get too excited I'm not anywhere near "In Charge" or even know anybody "In Charge" or have anything to do with how foreign policy is going to me made besides having the nerve to predict the future on thie forumn according to what I've read about peak oil and of course, regularly voting. I'm going to be just another average joe with a some degree of preperations as best as I can figure out when the SHTF. I am truly awed and amazed by how through, ambitious and detailed some of the plans people here have for dealing with the crisis.

BUT I DIGRESS

The impending dollar crash scenario has been around for the last 30 years, it hasn't played out yet but hey, if the Chinese start selling their dollar reserves, we've got dollar reserves to buy whatever they're buying, a whole lot of em'. The economics goes a little over my head now and again but the way I see things playing out we're not going to take ALL the oil or blockade we're just going to make sure it's priced in dollars and now thanks to our pals the Saudis and the Iraqis it looks like that's going to be the case. We're not the only ones who like it that way. The Japanese like that because we protect them from China and North Korea and they want us strong. Same goes for the South Koreans and the Australians.

BTW, The Malaysians have been calling for a long time for a gold dinar to replace the euro and dollar but that hasn't gotten off the ground. Saddam was going to price his oil in Euros but look what happened to him. Iran is trying to create their own oil market and is getting lots of weaponry from the Chinese. The great game continues.

[abelardlindsay]

Have you read Powerdown by Heinburg? I rather suspect not.

Your plan is one option. It involves a lot of death and suffering, in my view much of which is avoidable. And will inevitably fail.

Hmm.. So in 30 years you are saying that 6 billion people will all be dancing around happy hanging out, eating organic food and making their own clothes. I'll read powerdown to get the happy side of things. I read the unhappy side of things namely dieoff and the oil age is over first which made me a little uneasy about the future

One thing I particularly think is that, when the US people realise they've been scammed, they are going to be very angry. Generally when Empires fall, a lot of unpleasantness happens to those at the top. So I wish you good luck, you may need it more than those of us who have rather smaller ambitions than to install hegemony by force on the whole world.

Naah..Americans are going to ignore it and keep tightening their belts, driving less, wearing a sweater, buying cheaper food, not going on trips until the first gas shortages. Just like they ignored the rest of the world outside the US and Europe until 9/11. Everything that technology can do will be done. They are then going to look to the politicians who are going to offer a new energy deal socialism thingy, building nuclear plants,etc. Then they are going to be really pissed and say all kinds of things like it's the greedy corporations fault and can't we all drive hybrids waaah. After the first food shortages comes the rationing, because after all this is a who eats and who doesn't situation. Then comes martial law, and things will grind along down from there to the 1850s. Suburbia abandoned for the Cities and farms like the Jodes left Oklahoma in the grapes of wrath. Lots of ugly stuff, except even the rich are going to have a crappy time too. Lots of drastic economic reorganization toward conservation, new energy technology, probably a few foreign wars, lots of inflation, bigtime religious /patriotic revival (sorry lefties). People who can't do farm labor are going to be hit the hardest. That's just the local day to day reality for you and me, even in a situation where the U.S does maintain its hegemony.


If the U.S doesn't maintain its hegemony it may not be a big deal, heck the British Empire collapsed and Britian wasn't such a bad place afterwards. If the leftys take over though you'll probably want to get on a boat and go somewhere else as your little spot out in the boonies is going to get collectivized.

Of course you lefties always underestimate the ability of the U.S government in foresight, believing Iraq or Afghanistan to be impending disasters and afterwords you overestimate it, believing that our CIA operatives could mind control the two countries into our sneaky democratic plans.

Keep the interesting responses coming but this Nazi stuff is really really tired and makes you guys look like the recycled conspiracy crowd that shows up at every 9/11 / JFK / Moon Landing conspiracy campout. Peak Oil is a lot more serious than that even for the middle of the road or those who don't really care about politics.

[Jack]

Welcome to Peak Oil, abelardlindsay. As you've surely noticed, the Neocon view is not shared by everyone - then again, it isn't opposed by everyone.

Again, welcome!

[rerere]

About being a neo-con, the shortest simplest explanation for my beliefs is that someone has to be the hegemonic superpower and it better be the United States rather than Russia or China.

Good. Then PAY for your military. You want the dream of this all-powerful military? PAY FOR IT!

Stop running a negative accounting balance.

Make sure the soldiers have what they need without having to have citizens create an "adopt a sniper" program where baby wipes and other stuff is sent to troops who lack the material to do the task the leadership set out before 'em.

Oh, and be sure to implement your plans in ways that are not violations of the US Constitution.

[rerere]

the Neocon view is not shared by everyone -

The 'view' isn't an issue.

The issues about the 'view' is how one opts to pay for that 'view'.

Negative accounting balances, violations of law, and other 'issues' - exactly HOW is the present situation/direction a "vision thing"?