[Simon_R]

Hi Pops

I agree, I spoke to our horses and mentioned 1000acres, they are now on strike (French horses)

We are in a different position here, people are still bemoaning the loss of the 10 hectare farms and the evil 40-60 hectare farms.

However I do agree, scalability is not possible.

However (yep two howevers) if the farm "A" can manage an acre of product for less than Farm "B" then they can produce a product cheaper, the problem is ..... will a major purchaser purchase it ... no.

but how many 1000 acre farms are surviving on cheap credit

Simon

[efarmer]

I believe the pressure will build over the next 4 decades until we have to largely cease growing crops for animal feed, and back up to crops for direct human consumption, with animal flesh and nutrients replaced by insect nutrients and proteins that are processed locally or regionally into acceptable forms for consumption and not presented in a recognizable bug form. Economic pressures, water resource demands, energy input requirements, etc. will combine to make the meat farming business shift from mammals to something more efficient in conversion of edible and potable inputs to edible outputs.

[PrestonSturges]

Farms will grow their own biodiesel, which will probably be refined in local co-ops. There is an oil crop for nearly any climate, including canola, sunflowers, and peanuts.

I very much doubt that as there wouldn't be too much left after fueling the fuel production to produce food.

I think I've seen calculations that a farm would need <10% of its land in biodeisel production for its fuel needs, while cogenerating high protein animal feed.

[PrestonSturges]

There is nothing more efficient than livestock, especially ruminants for converting sunlight to human food. The animals go out and do the hard work. You just have to round them up and slaughter the poor buggers.

Exactly, people have not been raising livestock for thousands of years under every possible condition because they are all stupid or something. Also there are many places that are too rocky for row crops which leaves trees or livestock or more intensive hand cultivation. I've seen some lovely pastures that are a grid of sharp stone outcroppings.

Ideally, you'd have some sort of grazing animal out in a pasture chowing down on legumes, then every evening have them come back to the barn to drop off a steaming load of manure for the row crops or raised beds.

[AgentR11]

*snipped images of 6 mcmuffin comparison*

$24 will buy 60 pounds of floor at my local grocer. Sugar is slightly more expensive.
That's 90,000 kcal; 45 days of subsistence for many, about 28 for me; but either way, its a staggering amount of food. Catch a fish here and there for amino acid variety, maybe boil some nettles for trace nutrients; with that you can go your whole productive adult life. The carb/fat balance won't be kind to your elderly years later, but you aren't too productive at that point, so no big deal.

The stuff in your $20 image was still what I'd call luxury food.
= = = = = = = = = =
So, to the OP question; you can see the amount of up-charge in the retail and processing system right there, even if oil were ten times the price, even in current dollars; that bag of flour and sugar, salt, and other necessities would *STILL* be affordable to the minimum wage employee at walmart. What they can't afford is the Twinkie, and definitely meat will be very dearly priced. But surprise surprise, humans don't really need all that much protein.

So I see this going another direction, I think industrial ag, the BIG tractors, train cars, grain carrying cargo shipping; they keep going without a hitch. The shipping from packaging point to retail will become slightly more challenging; but the big hit comes in how people go TO the retail location. If it costs me $20 to go to and from Walmart, I can't do that trip to buy a pack of beer or a loaf of bread; so I think this bifurcates shopping habits, into modest loads by foot or bike/scooter, and very large loads by van or truck. I might be biased, because this is what I do now, I don't give two seconds thought to going to the grocery store to buy a couple apples, but I also don't take a motor vehicle to get the two apples; when I take the truck, I don't buy 4 rolls of paper towels, I buy 40. So that future, $20 trip becomes ok again, *IF*, I buy $300+ worth of supplies.

I don't think Americans are ready to think in this manner, as a general rule, but we are also overly price sensitive, so it may happen sooner than one might expect.

One casualty though... I have serious doubts that low calorie density, sensitive vegetable produce, shipped thousands of miles can survive this transition. Grocers will have to rely more on what they can purchase regionally or locally. Oranges in NY though, luxury item.

[peterjames]

Things are certainly going to change for agriculture in a fossil free world. Electrification isnt going to come close to maintaining life as we know it. People living on the 27th floor of their apartment block in (insert city here), are going to realise they cant maintain their life. Food stuffs grown on the farm (in smaller quantities than today) 200 kilometres from the city are going to be consumed way before they reach the city. Food requirements will lead to a mass exodus from cities. Farmers wont even bother to grow crops, as they will continually be stolen.

[Shaved Monkey]

When we get flooded in,its an annual event here lasting for upto a few weeks but usually only a few days
First thing the boat brings in is bread and milk and mail.
During the major floods when roads were closed for weeks they bought in flour for the baker because they couldnt move loaves up the freeway it was helicoptered in by the government.
The baker then started gouging us with $6 loafs.
Except for the doomers who had heaps of UHT milk and lots of flour.
Pretty sure most of the locals have supplies before the wet season starts.

Agriculture locally
WE have a dairy farm up the road that processes and markets its own milk locally.
Family business, pretty sure he will continue as the his main energy inputs are electricity as the cows fertilise the grass they then eat.
Beef farms in the area are all massive stations of low input grass fed animals.
Mustering can and usually is done by horse.(or motor bikes,if theirs still cheap oil and good prices,they use chopper )
If it becomes too expensive to transport them to market he grows less and droves a few down the road to be butchered and sold in town.
A few olive farms down the road will be able to fill local needs if transport makes other markets too expensive.
The hills are full of cheese makers, moonshiners and home brewers,the hobby farms are full of pigs, ducks, sheep,geese and chickens ,the dams,rivers and oceans are full of fish.
Theres plenty of wild animals.

and best thing is we are many expensive to get too miles from nowhere.

So for some agriculture will do just fine.
Best thing I can do is grow my own veg, fruit,nuts and berries as food is not going to get cheaper.
The lower your inputs the better.
I should be right for proteins.

[Pops]

Hi Pops

I agree, I spoke to our horses and mentioned 1000acres, they are now on strike (French horses)

...but how many 1000 acre farms are surviving on cheap credit

LOL, I don't blame them!

As I understand from talking to different folks, it's pretty hard to borrow on bare land. The bank want's stuff it can sell fast when the farmer goes teats up. Not that that eliminates the possibility a farm will go broke. I found this on a quick search:

While total debt held by farms increased from 1992 to 2011, average farm debt-to-asset ratios declined

More detail here.

OIl caused input costs to increase but the ethanol mandate caused a big run up in prices so the "corn belt" has been doing OK lately. I'm pretty sure the new normal range for corn is $4.50-$5.50 if oil stays at $100 and the ethanol mandate is in place.

[Pops]

Farmers wont even bother to grow crops, as they will continually be stolen.

LOL, not sure about where you're from but I'm pretty sure people will continue to "bother" growing food around here.

As for the people streaming out of cities, they won't. No more than the farmer will quit farming: they know how to get food in the city and know nothing of the farm. If on the off chance they do wander out, they'll starve quickly trying to forage mono cropped farmland that has food on it only a few weeks a year. Not that they'd know what to do with dent corn or milo or wheat if they fell into a silo full.

[MikeinNeb]

I read an interesting report (you-all probably are well aware of it, I'll hunt it up and post it if you are not...) that thesis was that the last 300 years are an anomaly in human history brought on by the explosion of technical advancement coupled with the utilization of fossil fuels. He argues that since truly beneficial technological advancements and fossil fuels have run their course, economic growth will return to the <1% figure its been thru most all of existence. He places technological advances like indoor plumbing, electricity, and the internal combustion engine far above the internet, cell phones etc. Specifically, he ranks the elimination of dependence on the horse as a huge advancement; Health improvements because of no more poop and urine everywhere in city streets, the labor involved in maintaining horses, the horse costing as much to maintain as its worth every year...etc. And my personal experience with horses confirms that I would MUCH, MUCH, MUCH, rather have a bicycle and a small tractor. (I actually have a couple of old walk behind tractors with multiple attachments I'm trying to return to operation. I also am trying to get a "Positive Harvest" small farm going on my 23 acres here in Nebraska.) A local, biodiesel production Cooperative sounds ideal for decentralization.

[vtsnowedin]

Farms will grow their own biodiesel, which will probably be refined in local co-ops. There is an oil crop for nearly any climate, including canola, sunflowers, and peanuts.

I very much doubt that as there wouldn't be too much left after fueling the fuel production to produce food.

I think I've seen calculations that a farm would need <10% of its land in biodeisel production for its fuel needs, while cogenerating high protein animal feed.

Well < 10 percent is a lot better then the 33% of land needed to support horses or other draft animals and it might come to that eventually near the bottom of the oil curve . Perhaps around 2055 or so. But in the mean time I think oil for agriculture production and transport will still be more cost effective then any other alternative but the higher price of that oil will get passed on to the consumer driving the food purchase choices each makes. People may use the internet to bulk order months of food (non perishable) and have it delivered to their door in a large truck load saving all that shopping trip fuel. That order still might include a side of beef or twenty dressed frozen chickens etc. if the customer has a freezer and the grid is still up.
As to the fertilizer from natural gas angle again it comes down to the cost of alternatives. Farmers will continue to apply commercial fertilizers as long as they increase yields sufficiently to cover the cost profitably. It is certainly a better use of NG then heating a large poorly insulated house with only one or two people in it each night and empty during the day. And the same holds true for chemical insecticides and herbicides. Without the insecticides there will be decreased yields and the amount of that decrease dictates how much a farmer can afford to pay for the insecticide and its application costs. They can and will do the math. Herbicides can be substituted for by mechanical cultivation (no one is going to hoe 100 acres by hand) but that costs in fuel, labor, and machine time. At present the herbicide is a lot cheaper and will win out economically for quite a while. Residuals in finished product and health effects from them are another subject but probably won't change the dynamics in a starving world.

[Lore]

Who knows how to do much of anything that would count when most of the modern trappings of society falls away?

We live in the age of the specialist that is confined to understanding a few facets of our techno world. No single person or isolated group of people can replicate an iPad, a television, a microwave oven, or even a tractor for that matter. At best, if the interconnecting parts of human knowledge and effort become broken there maybe a few who can scavenge from the remains to jigger a few rudimentary things together to last a few more years.

[PrestonSturges]

Farms will grow their own biodiesel, which will probably be refined in local co-ops. There is an oil crop for nearly any climate, including canola, sunflowers, and peanuts.

I very much doubt that as there wouldn't be too much left after fueling the fuel production to produce food.

I think I've seen calculations that a farm would need <10% of its land in biodeisel production for its fuel needs, while cogenerating high protein animal feed.

Well < 10 percent is a lot better then the 33% of land needed to support horses or other draft animals and it might come to that eventually near the bottom of the oil curve .

Peanuts can yield 50 or 100 gallons of bio diesel per acre. How much fuel does it take to plow a 160 acre "quarter section" of 1/4 mile square? Probably more than fifty and less than a thousand. What about a 40 acre 1/8 mile square? I just don't know, never having driven a tractor.

[vtsnowedin]

[
Peanuts can yield 50 or 100 gallons of bio diesel per acre. How much fuel does it take to plow a 160 acre "quarter section" of 1/4 mile square? Probably more than fifty and less than a thousand. What about a 40 acre 1/8 mile square? I just don't know, never having driven a tractor.

The larger the tractor the less it takes per acre. That's why they are now so large. A figure I've seen gives an average of six gallons per acre for the full crop, plow ,plant , spray ,and harvest . excluding fuel for grain drying .

[PrestonSturges]

[
Peanuts can yield 50 or 100 gallons of bio diesel per acre. How much fuel does it take to plow a 160 acre "quarter section" of 1/4 mile square? Probably more than fifty and less than a thousand. What about a 40 acre 1/8 mile square? I just don't know, never having driven a tractor.

The larger the tractor the less it takes per acre. That's why they are now so large. A figure I've seen gives an average of six gallons per acre for the full crop, plow ,plant , spray ,and harvest . excluding fuel for grain drying .

That's consistent with what I remembered about 5% to 10% of the acreage going to biodiesel, which also creates high protein animal feed and silage.

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . . as I have posted on this board (and others) I have spent many years developing a precision farming system that can be powered by the mains, solar panels, a small IC engine or draft animal/human power.

We have proven the system works, is scalable and useful versions could be made out of bamboo and bicycle wheels. Things are not tough enough yet for people to think outside the box an accept radical concepts . . . development of the system has ceased due to poor health and lack of funds.

Please don't nerp on with what I know to be bullshit about the future of farming and ignorant posts about planting corn by hand . . . I can make a corn planter that puts seeds in at a walking pace in one motion . . . very old technology.

Various groups and individuals around the world are working on rotary and cable cultivation systems that use a fraction of the horsepower of conventional agriculture.

Fifty years ago the Russians and Kiwis were running conventional and crawler tractors from the mains and back in England in about 1948 my grandad had an electric walk behind tractor in his market garden . . . I believe they were very common in Germany with thousands of small plots rigged up with overhead wires to support loops of power cable.

And while I'm ranting jump on Google earth and have a look at the terraces in Laos and Thailand . . . there are places in the world where nothing can/will out produce trained water buffalo and millions of pairs of little brown hands . . . agriculture will continue.

Cheers.