[venky]

Simple, if the US controls Iran and Iraq, and also due to its military presence Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, no industrial power on earth could stand up to the US, especially post Peak Oil as the US could simply pull the plug on their economies without even having to fight.

True, Russia is self-sufficient in energy, but would they let a rival like the US reach a position of such overwhelming superiority? Mind you, if the Soviet Union had not collapsed there would be no way that the US could have moved such a large force into the middle east as now without provoking a massive Soviet backlash. Even in today's unipolar world, the line will be drawn somewhere by the other major powers.

[seahorse]

I think the idea that the US actions would be negated so quickly is completely incorrect. I also do not beleive the American people would be so quick to jump into yet another war, after the quagmire that is Iraq. The US population is quite split right now. Also ignored was the effect of the SPR, as well as the possibility of further help in the form of imports as we are now receiving from Europe.

I disagree. I think you underestimate the wrath the Americans could quickly amass if their entire culture was threatened with an oil embargo. As Cheney said, the American way of life is not negotiable. This is just further comittment to the infamous "Carter Doctrine" that ME oil is a national security interest for the United States.

I think this would have all played out on a much much slower time frame, 9+ months or more and the tap-dancing on all sides would have been much more subtle and restrained

The time frame on this scenario was 5 months (December 05 - April 06). If Israel attacks Iran, things could unfold very quickly. Most major wars do. The purpose was not to make this game drag out over months, but to expose different options and see how things could play out. I think we all learned something. I know I did.

Sorry, Seahorse, your injection of the space nuke was what spiralled this all out of control.

If the world sees the U.S. attempting to control all ME oil, other entities like the SCO or the BRIC alliance would probably act quickly to prevent it. Why would China, Russia, or anyone else ever wait and allow US forces to dominate the area? In fact, a quick strike by the Chinese or Russians is clearly contemplated by Chinese recent military writing. For example, the Chinese have stated the biggest lesson learned from watching Americans fight two wars in the last 10 years, is that you have to strike the US forces before the US forces strike. In this scenario, one that was probably unexpected by most here, China and Russia quickly eliminated the one thing that allows US forces absolute dominance on the battlefield, which is its satellite resources used for GPS, communications, targeting, intelligence, etc. The SCO anticipated a US strike against Iran, SA or others, and struck quickly. The quick strike brought a fast halt to the US aggression. I think it is very plausible.

All these entities compete as well as cooperate in the struggle for power. They're not going to shoot themselves in the foot (ala Saudi Arabia in the foregoing scenario) for the sake of their neighbors.

You may think OPEC wouldn't agree to an embargo, but your belief is not born out by history. OPEC did this in the 70s, it could happen again. It could happen again as demonstrated here, especially when the Saudis this year are already publicly stating the region is in danger of disentegration. The biggest threat to any government, especially the Saudis now, is the loss of support of their own people. This is a far bigger threat than the Americans or temporary loss of oil revenues. Keeping your head, and your power, take priority of everything else. I think Omar played the Saudi part very realistically under the game as it played out.

[0mar]

If we are to do another geopolitical roleplay, can we slow things down a little bit.

I was away from my comp for a day and there were already 6 pages of events happening.

Also, thanks seahorse for the compliment

[MonteQuest]

bump

[seahorse]

Thanks for the "bump" on this thread Monte.

For those who have read it, this thread tried to role play world events if Israel or the US attacked Iran. Interesting, many reactions to the attack are actually happening in the real world right now, even without an attack. For example:

(1) Venezuela closing Citgo operations in the US. Venezuela has announced its closing 1500 filling stations. In the role play, Venezuela did this but also sabotaged its refineries in the US;

(2) Guerilla attacks against Israel;

(3) I don't remember if North Korea did anything in the role play, but certainly that plays into the list of options on the sides opposing the US/Israel.

As some have argued on t.v., maybe these things happening to distract world attention from Iran.

[gg3]

However we have not had a nuclear war.

Now I'll briefly play Devil's Advocate.

A limited nuclear exchange in the Middle East, by which I mean one bomb goes "this way" and one goes "that way," could be a good thing.

First, it would instantly hit the televisions and computer screens of the world, at a level of immediacy and detail that hit people over the head like a brick. The aftermath would be seared into the minds of humanity for another fifty years (perhaps long enough that we would truly get to a point where such things became truly impossible in the future).

Second, it would eliminate both of the participating parties' governments, effectively demonstrating that no one wins when the WMDs start flying, and precluding any further hostile action by those governments. The Middle East would therefore become one degree safer from the depredations of such lunatics as still remain in power elsewhere in the region.

Third, it would immediately cause the price of oil to hit the proverbial stratosphere: instant PO event, giving humanity some real time to make adjustments before the real PO slide got underway.

Fourth, it would immediately cause shockwaves in world financial markets, triggering a massive shift of investment to non-petroleum energy sources including nuclear, wind, efficiency, and conservation. The R&D money pouring into solar photovoltaics would bring forth technical improvements that would lower the price to become fully cost-competitive with nuclear and wind.

And last but not least, it would cause the peoples of the region to immediately reject the extremist ideologies that led up to the actual event.

Think of it as the equivalent of a big puke after a night of excessive eating and drinking. Some people don't learn until they leave a technicolor trail from the couch to the toilet and wake up the next day with a foul taste in their mouth and sore muscles in the abdomen. And some times the best thing to do is not to take the proverbial bottle away from the alcoholic, but to let them drink themselves into the hospital and get a few inches from their own demise. Sometimes that's the only way for them to learn they just have to stop.