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Goldman Says $100 Oil Possible

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Oil at $100 a barrel cannot be ruled out in 2023 as supply additions are expected to be too slow to keep up with record demand, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While the bank’s base forecast is for Brent to stay around $85 next year and 2023, it could breach triple digits through either higher cost inflation for drillers, or if an unexpected supply shortfall forces prices to spike high enough to destroy demand, said Damien Courvalin, head of energy research.

The upside risks underscore why Goldman remains bullish on oil even after prices have rallied more than 40% this year. The bank sees the recent sell-off as overdone on unnecessary concerns about omicron-related restrictions and expects investors to buy the dip once asset managers reallocate money next year.

“There’s insufficient supply in the face of strong demand,” Courvalin said in a call with reporters Friday. “Oil prices have to be higher to overcome the higher cost of capital to fund projects.”

The recent $10 dip is the equivalent of pricing in a loss of 5 million barrels a day of demand for three months. That’s likely an overreaction, Courvalin said, as governments seem to be responding to omicron with more testing than new lockdowns so far.

Longer term, output growth is being hit by challenges including upstream cost inflation and more expensive financing as investors opt to support ESG-focused sectors, he said. Investments in long-cycle oil projects have also dipped due to uncertainties around energy transition and its impact on fuel usage.

Demand for everything from gasoline, diesel and plastics is currently at a record level, with consumption expected to reach new highs in 2022 and 2023, he said. Use of jet fuel will continue to lag due to Covid-related travel restrictions, but some pent-up demand for travel is likely to emerge as borders reopen.

Demand is being supported by strong government capital expenditure, both to support the economic recovery from Covid and to fund the energy transition needed to combat climate change. An increased focus on income inequality will also support commodities, as poorer people tend to spend a higher portion of their income on goods and energy.

Oil prices could go as high as $110 a barrel if supply can’t keep up and the market needs demand destruction in order to balance, he said.


65 Comments on "Goldman Says $100 Oil Possible"

  1. IMeanItYouDIeAllOfYou on Mon, 20th Dec 2021 1:19 pm 

    I mean it when I said


    Nothing really matters
    Anyone can see
    Nothing really matters
    Nothing really matters to me

    Any way the wind blows…

    I mean it when I said I will seek revenge want you blood for you did to me and other humans.

  2. FamousDrScanlon on Mon, 20th Dec 2021 3:28 pm 


    They are super Jews who own Europe.

  3. Duncan Idaho on Mon, 20th Dec 2021 7:36 pm 

    “There was madness in any direction, at any hour. If not across the Bay, then up the Golden Gate or down 101 to Los Altos or La Honda. . . . You could strike sparks anywhere. There was a fantastic universal sense that whatever we were doing was right, that we were winning. . . .

    And that, I think, was the handle—that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn’t need that. Our energy would simply prevail. There was no point in fighting—on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. . . .

    So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.”

  4. Cloggie on Tue, 21st Dec 2021 2:37 am 

    Another promise of ultra-cheap hydrogen soon:

    “Ohmium Promises $1/kg ‘Indian’ Hydrogen by 2025”

    By 2030, all the oil majors could have been gone and nobody will ever talk about coal, oil, gas or nuclear ever again.

    And for the many renewables and hydrogen skeptics here, they should remember the Gorbachev’s adage: “he who comes too late will be punished by life”.

    “They are super Jews who own Europe.”

    Sure. Jews and their Anglo empire will evaporate with their evaporating oil and gas business. Nobody will pay 100-200$ for a barrel of Anglo-Zionist gunk. Gasoline currently costs 2 euro/liter at the pump, and you merely get 12 kWh thermal energy for that. For 80 euro cents, we’ll have 33 kWh energy that can be converted to kinetic energy at much higher efficiencies in a fuel cell car.

    Sorry pall, you lost.

    The American empire = oil and gas. Oil and gas gone, American empire gone, just like the British empire went out of business, when their coal and steam business was outcompeted by American oil and gas. And now American oil and gas are going to be outcompeted by renewable energy and hydrogen storage, a game where nobody will really dominate, but Europe, that is spearheading the transition revolution, has much better cards than the Anglos (or Russians) and will acquire a large share of the industry and markets, with the Chinese as a good second.

  5. Biden's hairplug on Tue, 21st Dec 2021 7:46 am 

    The Dutch population has voted the “Word of the Year 2021” (82% of 49,000 votes):


    (jab regret)

    The contest is a yearly recurring event, organized by the Dutch #1 dictionary publisher van Dale.

    I myself would have gladly voted for the word “priktatuur” (pricktatorship), but that word was not a candidate.

  6. Biden’s hairplug on Tue, 21st Dec 2021 2:44 pm 

    We have finally found a way to bring the US into war with both China and Russia:

    “American foreign policy dilemma”

  7. Biden’s hairplug on Wed, 22nd Dec 2021 8:05 am 

    Peter Hitchins says that there is no hope for our society, that is tearing itself to pieces:

    Exactly right.

    The leftist-globalist West is heading for the abyss of history, like the USSR of former fame.

    But the examples of Russia and Eastern Europe have shown that there is life after the crash… after a sharp turn to the right and conservatism.

    We in the West should do the same and overthrow the 1968-generation, their diversity, slavery and holocult, third world glorification and self-loathing. And the core enemy are the MSM, that created this death cult.

  8. Biden’s hairplug on Wed, 22nd Dec 2021 8:16 am 

    Uk and US face the most food shortages, followed at a distance by Germany, France and Italy.

    Here in the Netherlands, the port of Europe, everything is normal.

  9. Biden’s hairplug on Wed, 22nd Dec 2021 10:02 pm 

    Even CNN admits that the US empire is in decline:

  10. Theedrich on Thu, 23rd Dec 2021 3:20 am 

    T’was the nightmare before Christmas: Biden. And his beauty queens, Negress Harris and crone Pelosi.  Plus virtually the entire Democrat syndicate, enriching itself with bribe money from Mexican narco-gangs and World Economic Forum criminals who buy politicians.  Nor should the corrupt, anti-White Republicans be forgotten.  Auld Lang Syne.

    Many Repubs now want to outshine Dems in virtue-signaling by demanding the importation of half a million Afghans and providing them with wheelbarrows of cash.  We are already engulfing millions of unassimilable aliens through the southern border and by boat from Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, etc.  By the time the next mid-term election rolls around next November, the Democrat Bolsheviks will have enabled all of the newly dumped trash to vote for them, thereby permanently ending America.

    Meanwhile, the corrupt Big Guy and company will have used currency debasement, the ChiCom COVID-19 mutations, encouragement of Negroid robbery and killing, promotion of Antifa thuggery, and maybe even a new war or two to distract the herd from its forthcoming doom.

    You asked for it, Americans.

  11. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 23rd Dec 2021 3:49 am 

    Don’t think for a minute that Japan likes to be a US colony and vassal. They will shed off that burden at the earliest opportunity, and China will provide the means. Japan knows that China will respect Japan’s sovereignty, provided Japan is neutral. Japan will NOT help the US in keeping Taiwan independent of China, despite rhetoric to the contrary. The US can and always does run, Japan can’t. That’s why Japan won’t help.

    “Japan’s hypersonics aim for strategic independence”

    “Japan’s hypersonic weapons program aims to reduce its military reliance on the US and boost its latent nuclear power status”

    When China (and North-Korea) will finally make their move, all Asian countries will play the race card and celebrate the liberation from centuries of white dominance. China, unified Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, all of them. And after the demise of the US hegemon, EVERYBODY is going to play the race card after the Anglo-Zionist Marxist New World Order finally bites the dust, including Europe and North-America. The upcoming multipolar world order will be identitarian.

    P.S. it is very telling that the kosher Google spell checker is unfamiliar with the word “identitarian”.lol

  12. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 23rd Dec 2021 4:17 am 

    Anglo-Europeans who have enough of Anglosphere and are moving home to Europe, it’s easy to find tons of them online. The other way around, not so much. The truth is that for normal, “average” people, Europe is better than oligarch heaven and diverse US. Don’t take it from me, take it from European-Americans.

    Moved to the Netherlands: (Australian)

    Moved to Spain:

    For WASPS, moving to the Netherlands is probably the smallest culture shock, as the Netherlands is historically the Anglo 1.0 base country:

    P.S. this is not an invitation, the Netherlands is already overcrowded as it is. It is merely an observation.

  13. Biden's hairplug on Thu, 23rd Dec 2021 4:36 am 

    “Trump has the US in a stranglehold for 2022”

    “Für sein großes Comeback 2022 hat Trump die USA längst wieder im Würgegriff”

    German MSM Focus and outlet for the NWO, like all “German” media gleichgeschaltet, has to observe that Trump isn’t political dead yet.

  14. Ask not for whom the bell tolls for the iceman cometh on Thu, 23rd Dec 2021 5:37 am 

    Wait a minute……cloggie or hairplug are both the same nutter or are we supposed to think these are different kooks?

  15. Tom Cook on Thu, 6th Jan 2022 5:44 am 

    This was good article

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