Since 1998 when the oil geologists Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère published a widely

discussed survey article “The End of Cheap Oil” in the journal “Scientific American”, the

concept of peak oil and the present state of oil depletion are part of any

serious analysis of thefuture oil supply potential. However, recently various publications

suggest that oil is still abundantly available and that there is little need to worry

about the future oil supply potential.

As in previous years, the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) in its latest World Energy

Outlook 2012 (WEO 2012) projects a rising global oil demand and supply in the coming

decades. The IEA explicitely asserts that for the forseeable future

–

to 2035 and beyond

–

no geological or technical restrictions will prevent a continually growing oil supply. The media were echoing this report by emphasising the likelihood of a global oil and gas supply glut

triggered by new production technologies in the USA, while ignoring possible geological

supply restrictions.

In contrast to the projections put forward by the IEA, in 2008 the Energy Watch Group

(EWG)

had published a report on the future world oil supply, presenting a scenario projecting

a significant decline of global oil supply in the coming decades up

to 2030. It is the intention

of this new report to update these findings by analysing the developments which took place in

the last five years and thereby to arrive at an enhanced understanding of the conditions determining present and future oil supply

3 Comments on "New book with latest from Colin Campbell"

Arthur on Fri, 29th Mar 2013 7:01 pm 



The EWG are probably the most pessimistic around. The conclusions are on page 131:

“According to our study, coal and gas production will reach their respective production peaks around 2020. The combined peak of all fossil fuels will occur a few years earlier than the
peaking of coal and gas and will almost coincide with the beginning decline of oil production.”

They expect peak energy (peak kwh) ca. 2018. That’s carbon + uranium.

By 2030 the amount of energy will have declined from 126 units to 108.

Golden days for windturbine and solar panel manufacturers coming up.

Arthur on Fri, 29th Mar 2013 7:35 pm 



Have a look at the peak energy graph on page 132.

The report btw does not mention the potential of methane hydrates.

Arthur on Fri, 29th Mar 2013 8:07 pm 



Looked for youtube videos of the people behind the EWG:

http://tinyurl.com/c3g6x8a