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Page added on March 29, 2013

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New book with latest from Colin Campbell

Geology
Since 1998 when the oil geologists Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère published a widely
discussed survey article “The End of Cheap Oil” in the journal “Scientific American”, the
concept of peak oil and the present state of oil depletion are part of any
serious analysis of thefuture oil supply potential. However, recently various publications
suggest that oil is still abundantly available and that there is little need to worry
about the future oil supply potential.
As in previous years, the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) in its latest World Energy
Outlook 2012 (WEO 2012) projects a rising global oil demand and supply in the coming
decades. The IEA explicitely asserts that for the forseeable future
to 2035 and beyond
no geological or technical restrictions will prevent a continually growing oil supply. The media were echoing this report by emphasising the likelihood of a global oil and gas supply glut
triggered by new production technologies in the USA, while ignoring possible geological
supply restrictions.
In contrast to the projections put forward by the IEA, in 2008 the Energy Watch Group
(EWG)
had published a report on the future world oil supply, presenting a scenario projecting
a significant decline of global oil supply in the coming decades up
to 2030. It is the intention
of this new report to update these findings by analysing the developments which took place in
the last five years and thereby to arrive at an enhanced understanding of the conditions determining present and future oil supply

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-update2013_long_18_03_2013.pdf



3 Comments on "New book with latest from Colin Campbell"

  1. Arthur on Fri, 29th Mar 2013 7:01 pm 

    The EWG are probably the most pessimistic around. The conclusions are on page 131:

    “According to our study, coal and gas production will reach their respective production peaks around 2020. The combined peak of all fossil fuels will occur a few years earlier than the
    peaking of coal and gas and will almost coincide with the beginning decline of oil production.”

    They expect peak energy (peak kwh) ca. 2018. That’s carbon + uranium.

    By 2030 the amount of energy will have declined from 126 units to 108.

    Golden days for windturbine and solar panel manufacturers coming up.

  2. Arthur on Fri, 29th Mar 2013 7:35 pm 

    Have a look at the peak energy graph on page 132.

    The report btw does not mention the potential of methane hydrates.

  3. Arthur on Fri, 29th Mar 2013 8:07 pm 

    Looked for youtube videos of the people behind the EWG:

    http://tinyurl.com/c3g6x8a

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