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Page added on June 26, 2018
This Isn’t Your Father’s OPEC Anymore
Judging from its series of consequential meetings last week in Vienna, OPEC seems to have confirmed that the rumors of its death have been greatly exaggerated. The important thing to recognize is that it also has a new identity that may reshape oil geopolitics for years to come.
Commentators have been writing OPEC’s obituary for years. Most recently, they did so in the wake of a pivotal November 2014 OPEC meeting, when oil prices cratered after Saudi Arabia decided against cutting production. Countless analysts, experts, and scholars mused that Riyadh’s hand had been forced by the rapid rise of shale oil in the United States; since shale output is much more responsive to oil price changes than conventional oil production, any attempt by OPEC to cut production and push up prices was expected to simply be offset by a rapid rise in U.S. output. “OPEC is now relinquishing its pricing power,” explained no less prominent a voice than former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan in early 2015.
But shale supply could not swing enough. Oil prices hit a low of $27 per barrel at the start of 2016. In response, OPEC member states met in November 2016 with several non-OPEC oil-producing countries (collectively called OPEC+) to make a show of force by agreeing to cut production. But again, despite the agreement to cut supply, skeptics warned that shale’s dominance, along with mistrust among OPEC and its coalition of nonmembers, would undermine the deal. One prominent commentator predicted in the Financial Times that the Algiers deal “will come to symbolize the passing of one of the world’s most powerful cartels.”
Just two years after trying to put a floor under prices, OPEC+ last week was called on to put a ceiling on prices. As oil spiked above $80 per barrel following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would reimpose sanctions on Iran oil sales, the United States along with other consuming countries like India and China publicly and privately pressured OPEC+ to open the taps back up. High prices have done more than agitate President Trump on Twitter; protests have broken out in China, Brazil, and Jordan in recent weeks over high pump prices, exacerbated by a strong U.S. dollar that makes prices even higher in local currencies. High oil prices can also be just as much of a concern as low oil prices for producer countries because they curb demand, give momentum to substitutes like electric vehicles, and encourage development of high-cost resources like Arctic and ultra-deepwater oil. (Indeed, it was a prolonged period of high oil and gas prices that gave rise to the shale boom in the United States.)
Part of the rise in prices owes to OPEC’s oil production falling far more since November 2016 than producers pledged in their agreement, largely because of involuntary production cuts from Venezuela. This 147 percent “overcompliance” offered OPEC+ an elegant solution to ease the pressure on prices without undermining its production agreement. OPEC and its partner countries thus pledged last week to return to 100 percent compliance with the original 2016 cuts.
The problem with promising to increase supply by returning to 100 percent compliance with the original cuts is that only Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have the ability to increase production. If the volume of overcompliance were shared among producers proportionally, that would imply an increase of about 600,000 barrels per day. If the production increase were allocated entirely to those able to boost output, so that the total volume of excess cuts were brought back to the market, that would imply a production increase of about 1 million barrels per day. That difference can have an outsized impact on price. In its press conference, OPEC refused to officially clarify, with different countries offering different interpretations to reflect their own concerns and interests. Despite the ambiguity, OPEC reasserted its relevance in Vienna through its willingness to cap prices, underscoring its reputation as a responsible supplier to the market. In his remarks in Vienna, for example, al-Falih emphasized the importance of protecting consumers.
But, even as OPEC reasserts its traditional role, the organization has been reincarnated in new form.
First, Saudi Arabia’s role in the organization is bigger than ever. The price-capping decision in Vienna was effectively taken by Saudi Arabia, not OPEC. Only Saudi Arabia has any meaningful amount of spare capacity because it is the only country that chooses, at a cost to itself, to produce significantly less than it otherwise could. Iran understandably opposes a production hike, viewing efforts to curb high oil prices as facilitating President Trump’s aggressive foreign policy toward Tehran. But Iran had little choice but to go along with Saudi Arabia’s preferred outcome.
Even as Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Zanganeh downplayed how much oil would be coming back to the market, his Saudi counterpart said he would do “whatever is necessary” to keep the market well-supplied and that an additional 1 million barrels per day would come to the market. Moreover, by interpreting the agreement to mean total output, rather than output by individual countries, would comply with the November 2016 deal, Falih gave himself the flexibility to increase output further if needed to cap prices. Importantly, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he was fully aligned with Falih.
That brings us to the second major change in OPEC: Its second-most important player, after Saudi Arabia, is now Russia, despite not being an official member of OPEC at all. Last week’s OPEC deal reaffirmed the newfound role of Russia, the third-largest oil producer in 2017, in managing world oil prices with Saudi Arabia. Falih even told the press that Russia was considering joining OPEC as an associate member, and both Saudi Arabia and Russia took pains to signal that the close working relationship they have forged on oil policy would persist.
This new alliance between Saudi Arabia and Russia in managing world oil markets marks an important shift. While OPEC represented half of world oil production throughout the 1970s, its share of global supply declined below one-third in the 1980s, and now accounts for just over 40 percent. Effective market management thus requires bringing more global producers into the cooperation framework. Deepening and possibly formalizing the Saudi-Russian oil alliance marks a potentially historic shift for OPEC, as past attempts to cooperate with Russia have consistently failed. Indeed, in his 2016 memoir, former Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi wrote that he thought there was “zero” chance that countries outside the group, notably Russia, would join production cuts.
Russia’s new role in managing global oil prices gives President Vladimir Putin another prominent platform on the global stage and strengthens his hand in diplomatic engagements with large oil-consuming countries, including the United States. For decades, the oil price has been central to the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia: presidents of both political parties, going back decades, have requested at various times that the kingdom provide relief on oil prices, and the kingdom’s ability and willingness to oblige has been a key point of leverage in its diplomatic relationship with the United States. Riyadh’s current refusal to curb output alone and the creation of a new cooperation framework with Russia means Moscow may have an increasingly important voice in years to come in oil price management. That would mark a new point of influence for Moscow in its strained relationship with Washington.
This brings us to the third major message from last week’s OPEC meeting, that America’s shale energy boom hasn’t increased U.S. influence over global oil markets. Indeed, what was striking about the OPEC+ agreement is that the United States needed OPEC and non-OPEC countries to do it all. Despite talk of peak oil demand and U.S. “energy dominance,” the direct impact of last week’s deal on U.S. gasoline prices is a reminder that oil remains a geopolitical vulnerability for the United States and that talks of its “energy dominance” has been overhyped.
Despite surging U.S. oil production and plunging imports, pump prices are still determined by the global oil price. The mistake some commentators have made is in assuming the U.S. oil market would be able to have an outsized say about that global price, because U.S. shale oil production is more responsive to price changes than conventional oil supply; many prominent analysts proclaimed shale the new global “swing producer.” Yet recent experience — not to mention that the United States needed to ask OPEC to keep a lid on oil prices last week at all — has revealed that shale oil is not an elastic source of “swing supply” that can balance the world market.
U.S. monthly crude oil production is up by 2 million barrels over the past two years, but shale still takes time to ramp up and down. Shale output reflects the decisions of thousands of private firms, and its flexibility is likely is to decline as the sector consolidates among larger companies with stronger balance sheets. Additionally, shale output is constrained for some time by pipeline congestion, along with shortages of workers and equipment, which is already forcing U.S. oil to trade at a steeper discount to the global price of crude.
American consumers are still vulnerable to oil supply disruptions anywhere in the world regardless of how much or how little oil their country imports. Oil thus remains a key geopolitical consideration for U.S. foreign policy, despite America’s nearing the point where it will be oil “independent” on a net basis. Consider how President Trump had to ask Saudi Arabia to boost supply so that the United States could curtail Iranian oil sales without hurting U.S. consumers. Or that while President Trump would like OPEC countries to lower gasoline prices, OPEC countries would also like President Trump to block the legislation moving through Congress that would allow antitrust action to be brought against OPEC. The NOPEC bill, as it’s known, has been introduced in years past.
To be sure, although OPEC reasserted its relevance in Vienna, it also revealed its limitations. A deal to keep current prices in check is a far cry from the ability to truly be a source of swing supply and provide market stability. An output hike would leave OPEC with a very small buffer of spare capacity, so there is a limit to what OPEC can do to keep prices from spiking if Venezuelan production plummets, Iranian sanctions bite, or countries like Libya and Nigeria see further unrest. This is the dynamic that played out in the boom years prior to the 2008 peak, and OPEC lacked the ability, even if it had wanted to, to rein in prices when oil prices then ran up to $147 per barrel. That’s just one of several reasons the United States should maintain its strategic oil stockpile notwithstanding its reduced import dependence.
Since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the United States has complained about OPEC’s manipulation of oil prices even though its true willingness and ability to do so has been far more limited. The decision last week to provide oil price relief, reflecting newfound oil policy partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia, marks a potential turning point in the global oil order and a reminder that despite the shale boom or a possible energy transition, oil geopolitics is alive and well.
110 Comments on "This Isn’t Your Father’s OPEC Anymore"
Antius on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 7:04 am
Alas, global spare capacity is now razor thin. The US cannot serve as a swing producer, because its own production costs are relatively high and bottlenecks prevent it from ramping up exports in any meaningful way.
Unconventional and deep water oil has been responsible for virtually all supply increase since 2004. These sectors did not exist in any meaningful way before 2000 and they have much higher production costs than the onshore conventional oil of yesteryear.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/jeremy-grantham-global-oil-production-through-2010.jpg
Global conventional oil production:
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/world-production-of-conventional-crude-oil-to-2015.png
The world minus USA and Russia, shows a clear downward trend:
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2016/10/4/saupload_world_2Boil_2Bproduction_2Bless_2BUS_2Band_2BRussia.jpg
Art Berman confirms that conventional oil is on a downward trend:
https://i0.wp.com/www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/Chart_World-Con-Uncon-1.jpg
The hundred trillion dollar question is: How long can expensive unconventionals continue to make up for supply declines in conventional crude? I suspect the question hinges upon how much the global economy is able to pay for oil before it (and demand) tanks.
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 7:21 am
“Oil prices spike as Trump asks allies to zero out Iranian oil”
https://www.rt.com/business/431004-oil-jumps-trump-iran-sanctions/
I am very curious to see how the illegal US sanctions against Iran will work. I believe they will backfire, just like everything else the US government has done since the 911 false flag attack. I expect Russia and China to provide as much support as needed to Iran to preserve political stability there. These sanctions will deepen and strengthen the Iran-Russia-China axis of good and accelerate the decline of the USA and the US Dollar.
Antius on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 7:36 am
“These sanctions will deepen and strengthen the Iran-Russia-China axis of good and accelerate the decline of the USA and the US Dollar.”
Whether 911 was a false flag attack, or just a coincidental attack that proved useful, I do not know. I suspect the later.
But removing Iran’s oil production from global markets will have direct consequences for US citizens, because it is removing a substantial producer from an already tight market. With the US economy so fragile, China showing signs of faltering and interest rates rising across the world; any move that pushes up oil prices could push the world economy into depression. There has never been a worse time for the US to attempt this.
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 7:39 am
“Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to record high”
https://www.rt.com/business/430992-oil-production-saudi-arabia/
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 7:50 am
Antius, I don’t know whether 911 was a US false flag, the government simply let it happen, or it really was a surprise terrorist attack. Based on the historical precedents of the USA systematically using false flag attacks for decades to achieve its goals, I suspect the US government was involved in one way or another.
I agree that this is a bad time for the US government to apply sanctions on Iran. Oil prices are likely to increase in the short term future, IMO. Will Iran’s income from oil exports be significantly impacted if their exports decline and prices go up at the same time? I don’t expect that the damage to Iran’s economy will be strong enough to cause any significant political damage to them. I think the USA may be underestimating the political and economic support to Iran that Russia and China are willing to provide. Russia and China cannot allow Iran to be destroyed and they won’t. Iran is too important to them to allow it to go down.
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 8:20 am
Super OPEC?
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201806261065783128-opec-deal-game-changer/
Sissyfuss on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 8:31 am
Antius, what’s your take on the central banks keeping the frackers alive by surreptitious QE and money printing. How else could a business lose so much money and still function unless the PTB know its failure would bring down the entire house of cards and they are doing everything in their powers that be to prevent that.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 8:56 am
Antius
Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf
Antius on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 9:19 am
“Antius, what’s your take on the central banks keeping the frackers alive by surreptitious QE and money printing. How else could a business lose so much money and still function unless the PTB know its failure would bring down the entire house of cards and they are doing everything in their powers that be to prevent that.”
I do not know enough about how fracking operations are financed and my knowledge of the US financial system is superficial at best. Everything I have read suggests that tight oil operations are poorly profitable for most of the companies involved and that debt levels are high and increasing. Frackers appear to have concentrated on building volume and revenue, rather than profitability. Other sources suggest that as oil prices rise and the rate of expansion of new supply increases; inflation in the cost of labour and equipment eat into profitability. But for now, they still appear to have access to adequate finance to continue the expansion of their operations. I would need to know more about how this system operates in order to draw any conclusions about its imminent future.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 11:07 am
Oil price is sky rocketing! Looks who back? Peak oil part two! Like a phoenix rising from the ashes!
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/1‘
RIP 7 billion
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 11:44 am
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
We’re all gonna die!
http://www.fedprimerate.com/nymex-crude-oil-price-history-chart.htm
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 11:49 am
Oil stocks drop by nearly 10 million barrels: EIA
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-eia/oil-stocks-drop-by-nearly-10-million-barrels-eia-idUSKBN1JN1ZV
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 11:51 am
“MM”
https://cdn.bmstores.co.uk/images/hpcProductImage/imgFull/289400-picture-story-book-chicken-little.jpg
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 11:53 am
Greg
Here is a chart of oil price throughout its entire history..And it shows it in real terms and inflation adjusted..Unlike your chart.
https://imgur.com/a/3B0j6yG
You are energy illiterate and peak oil ignorant..
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 11:58 am
Financial catastrophe resulting from resource depletion and a debasement of value of fiat currencies. Then a 12-month window of tyranny and government lockdown on citizens, followed by a 6-month window of absolute carnage and death. Then, a period of about 6 months of slow die-off and that’s pretty much that. Oh, and starting sometime within the next 5 years or so…
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 12:06 pm
Humanity will adjust MM.
7 billion people are not planning on committing suicide anytime soon, but don’t let that stop you from sticking to your plan.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 12:15 pm
Greg
I don’t think your mind has the scope to handle the implications of the upcoming collapse..
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 12:25 pm
This board is so much better when Davy is not around!
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 12:27 pm
US threatens Iran’s oil buyers with sanctions.
https://www.rt.com/news/431026-us-sanctions-iran-oil/
JuanP on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 12:31 pm
MM “Greg I don’t think your mind has the scope to handle the implications of the upcoming collapse..”
I wonder if that is why Greg has been preparing for them for years. You, on the other hand, just plan to blow your brains off and leave your sister and nephew for the roving gangs of cannibal rapists. What a great brother and uncle!
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 12:36 pm
You have proven to everyone here MM, time and time again, that your mind is incapable of comprehending the articles that you continue to link ad nauseum.
Your fatalistic view is both extremist and simplistic. The game of life is a tad more complicated than a game of chess. You are more than welcome to walk away from that game, whenever you like.
Knock yourself out.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 1:58 pm
Greg
I emailed Professor Douglas B Reynolds PhD, Oil and Energy Economics, University of Alaska.
http://uaf.edu/files/som/REYNOLDS-Doug-2016-CV.pdf
And I asked him if our upcoming oil shortage will cause a global economic collapse?
https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg
He replied;
“Yes, it will be like that, but may be worse with other extenuating circumstances such as war or the decline of international trade. Hyperinflation as happened in the Soviet and Post Soviet economy is a certainty.”
https://imgur.com/a/rktmHdt
See unlike you Greg I will put my arguments to the test..Unlike you who wont ask a historian..
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 2:03 pm
Greg
You have proven to everyone here you are a weak minded bigot..You also have proven you a tin foil hat whack job..You are an uneducated self serving clown..
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 2:06 pm
“Yes, it will be like that, but may be worse with other extenuating circumstances such as war or the decline of international trade. Hyperinflation as happened in the Soviet and Post Soviet economy is a certainty.”
I don’t discount that possibility at all MM, and as a matter of fact, I’ve spent the last decade of my life planning for it.
What I don’t agree with is your fatalistic view that 7.6 billion people will be dropping like effing flies, and I am sure that Dr. Reynolds doesn’t agree with you either.
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 2:11 pm
“You have proven to everyone here you are a weak minded bigot..You also have proven you a tin foil hat whack job..You are an uneducated self serving clown..”
“Ad hominem (Latin for “to the man” or “to the person”[1]), short for argumentum ad hominem, is a fallacious argumentative strategy whereby genuine discussion of the topic at hand is avoided by instead attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, or persons associated with the argument, rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself.”
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 2:11 pm
Attention Doomie preppers!
Prepping is futile
Myth: Well-prepared individuals, groups, and communities will survive our impending collapse and maintain healthy, fulfilling, and productive lives in its aftermath.
Reality: Those who survive our collapse will be those who can obtain sufficient life sustaining essentials—especially clean water and food—on a continuous basis, both during and after collapse. Those who store large quantities of these essentials and those who attempt to produce
food, either individually or in communities, will be easy targets for the vast majority who have neither the foresight to store nor the skills to produce. No matter how remote or secluded your sanctuary, somebody will know about it; and they will come to call when they become desperate; and they will be well armed and devoid of compassion. You can prepare for a last stand, but you cannot prepare for post-collapse survival. Post-collapse Life Will Be Preferable to Our Industrial Lifestyle Paradigm
Myth: Industrialization has brought nothing but misery and degradation to the human race; our quality of life (and spiritual wellbeing) will improve substantially in a post-collapse world.
Reality: The post-collapse lifestyle awaiting the few who survive will, under the best of circumstances, share many attributes with pre-Columbian America. Unfortunately, the realities associated with subsistence level existence bear little semblance to the Hollywood accounts.Those who anxiously await our post-collapse world will be disappointed, assuming they live to experience it. The fact that nobody is opting to jettison the amenities afforded by an industrialized way of life in favor of a hunter-gatherer lifestyle today should be sufficient proof that our future way of life is not something to be anticipated. Industrialism is not inherently “evil” or immoral; it is simply physically impossible going forward.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 2:14 pm
We live in frightening times. It’s my belief that “you personally” will most likely die of starvation or conflict between 2020 to 2040.
You will experience a collapse of human civilization, a die-off of humans, a destruction of the ecosystem, a loss of access to mined and drilled resources, and a dark age from which your descendent’s will not reemerge.
Simple really….when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end… We’re talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in short order. The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I’m talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once. I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close..
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 2:24 pm
And MM,
The fact that you simply refuse to stop trying to ram your opinions down other peoples’ throats, when they obviously completely disagree with you, leads me to believe that you are either severely mentally disturbed, or extremly unsatisfied with your lot in life.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 2:40 pm
Greg
You are just a weak and fearful old has been..Maybe you should go watch wheel of fortune..
LMFAO!
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 3:02 pm
Five to one, baby
One in five
No one here gets out alive, now
You get yours, baby
I’ll get mine
Gonna make it, baby
If we try
The old get old
And the young get stronger
May take a week
And it may take longer
They got the guns
But we got the numbers
Gonna win, yeah
We’re takin’ over
Come on!
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 3:12 pm
“You are just a weak and fearful old has been..Maybe you should go watch wheel of fortune..”
I’m not the one here who is talking about killing himself.
And MM, I haven’t watched any considerable amount of television since I was in my early 20s. Nothing but brainwashing and propaganda, and a complete waste of time.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 3:29 pm
Greg
When society collapses, maybe you can thump a drum and sing “We are the world” when the lynch mobs come find you..And they will..
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 3:35 pm
Definitely severely mentally deranged. There can be no other explanation.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 3:59 pm
Trump Supporter Allegedly Throws Poop at Red Hen While Shouting ‘Make America Great Again’
https://lawandcrime.com/crazy/trump-supporter-allegedly-throws-poop-at-red-hen-while-shouting-make-america-great-again/
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 4:13 pm
Greg
Slandering the messenger just shows what a bigot you are..
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 4:24 pm
I’m not the one here who keeps trying to ram his opinions down other peoples’ throats MM.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 4:51 pm
Greg
You are totally obsessed with me..Everything I post you have to comment on..Why don’t you just keep scrolling old man..Doom isn’t for the faint of heart..Go worship Hitler somewhere else..You paranoid whack job..
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 5:00 pm
“Doom isn’t for the faint of heart.”
I’m not the one who plans to commit suicide MM.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 5:44 pm
Greg
I only plan on doing that if its between that and painfully starving to death..And if it gets to that point, who cares..I am going to die either way..Makes no difference..
Anonymouse1 on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 5:47 pm
Notice how ‘mushmind’ here, accuses Greg of being ‘obsessed’ (supposedly), with him? Now why does that so familiar………. Mmmmmm I wounder.
Oh, its because the exceptionalturd has leveled the exact same delusional accusation at Greg at various times in the past.
Surely it is, just a coincidence that two ahem ‘separate individuals’, who also, use the same slurs and turns of phrase as davyturd, going back to the time when ‘mushmind’ appeared literally, out of nowhere, with no posting history, and began attacking Mak and Greg right out the gate.
Like I said, just a coincidence Im sure…
Makati1 on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 5:48 pm
Greg, did you notice that when MM is in an indefensible position, he reverts to changing the subject and his immature name calling? A Davy clone? Relative? LOL
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 5:49 pm
We are all going to die MM, nobody makes it out of here alive, and if that’s the best plan you can come up with to solve ‘painfully starving to death’, then you obviously aren’t very bright.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 5:52 pm
Is a Second American Civil War Likely? 31% of Americans Think So
https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/is-a-second-american-civil-war-likely-31-of-americans-think-so-1.6219582
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 6:04 pm
“The poll was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, a right-leaning public polling group. The poll was conducted over the telephone and online on 1000 Likely Voters, with a three-percent margin of error. The survey was conducted between June 21 and June 24, 2018.”
1000 ‘likely voters’?
That sounds like a lot MM.
‘Right-leaning public polling group’?
LOL
Makati1 on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 6:07 pm
Some here cannot seem to understand that the end of BAU and the Us does NOT mean the end of everything. Severe change? Probably. The end of civilization? No.
Many in the 3rd world will hardly notice. Many who saw it coming and prepped will ride it out and adjust. As for the deniers or the uninformed, they will be the ones to feel the pain and most of the deaths.
Yes, there will be more deaths but not a sudden event. They will happen over months and years, similar to the Spanish flu.
“The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.”
https://www.history.com/topics/1918-flu-pandemic
Extrapolating those numbers to today’s population means that about 150 million extra deaths over a few years. The numbers may be much higher now as so many 1st worlders (Americans) are obese, on drugs, have diabetes, etc. The world survived the flu and moved on.
The slow collapse of the ecosystem is far more deadly than the end of cheap energy or the collapse of the financial system. And there is still the chance that a nuke exchange could happen. Then, all bets are off.
We live in definitely interesting times.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 6:10 pm
Greg
You are the one who said you supported Trump..you are so desperate to refute everything with ‘red herrings”..You are scared of everything..I bet your wife calls the shots around house..
MASTERMIND on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 6:13 pm
Madkat
Its not just the us collapsing..Its the entire OECD and BRICS nations..even in Hong Kong there have been people protesting..You look at the us in a vacuum..Because you are an uneducated moron..Who fled the country because he was scared..Just like your but buddy Greg..You two are the biggest pussies and will be killed first..And you will remember MM when Shit hits the fan..
GregT on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 6:15 pm
“The slow collapse of the ecosystem is far more deadly than the end of cheap energy or the collapse of the financial system. And there is still the chance that a nuke exchange could happen. Then, all bets are off.”
Common sense isn’t at all common Makati1.
Makati1 on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 6:15 pm
MM doesn’t realize that polls are no more than selected groups of people who already espouse what the pollsters want to prove. Like going into the ghettos and asking 1,000 people if they are on government support. 100% will say yes and support the pollster’s theses that most people are on the government dole. Ask the same question to 1,000 1%ers and get just the opposite stats.
Makati1 on Wed, 27th Jun 2018 6:19 pm
Greg, common sense seems to be rare in the Us. But then, the serfs there are so immersed in propaganda and distractions that I doubt their ability to even think for themselves. The rare few are prepping or getting out. Thousands every year.