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Orlov: Saving Face

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The Americans are finding out the hard way that a fact-free zone is not a comfortable place to inhabit. The initial knee-jerk allegations, voiced by Obama, by the screechy UN representative Samantha Power, by John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and any number of talking heads, were that the downing of flight MH17 was all Putin’s fault. These were swiftly followed by a complete and utter lack of official evidence of any Russian involvement but lots of strange, unexplained coincidences pointing to Ukrainian and American involvement. These were, in turn, followed by an uncharacteristically frank admission from US intelligence that there is no proof of Russian involvement. The newly installed Ukrainian oligarch-turned-president Poroshenko (code-name “Piglet”) switched from claiming that he had proof of Russian complicity to being very very quiet. Incompetently concocted fake “evidence” of this and that continues to appear on social media sites, only to be swiftly disproved. Once disproved, the fake evidence vanishes, only to be replaced by more of the same. The latest fake is of Russian artillery bombardment from across the border. All of this has added up to quite an awkward situation for the Americans. Barefaced lying may be fun and profitable, but it does not provide a solid foundation for foreign policy. Nobody wants to go down in history for blowing up the world over some fake Youtube videos.

The list of questions that demand answers is quite extensive. Why did the Ukrainians suddenly choose to activate their Buk M1 air defense system, with several rocket batteries and a radar, in Donetsk region, on the day of the crash? What was the Ukrainian Sukhoi-25 fighter jet (attested by numerous eye-witnesses) doing trailing after the Boeing? Why did Ukrainian air traffic control in Dnepropetrovsk redirect the flight to fly at a lower altitude and over the war zone? What were all those foreigners doing in the air traffic control center in Dnepropetrovsk right after the crash, and what happened to the flight control records they confiscated? What was the experimental US spy satellite doing flying over that exact spot at that exact moment? By the way, was anything interesting happening that day at the American drone base in Kanatov, in Dnepropetrovsk region, which, incidentally, is right on the flight path of MH17? (We know that it’s active; two of their drones have already been shot down by the rebels, one of which landed more or less intact, and the Russians are probably having fun tinkering with it.)

Some people are surmising that the crash was a failed false flag attack orchestrated by the Ukrainians with, at a minimum, American complicity. The idea, this version goes, was to pin the blame on the rebels and, by extension, on Russia, in order to escalate the conflict. This version of events may sound plausible to some people, because false flag operations are part of the standard American playbook. After all, there was that chemical attack in Syria which almost led to a US bombing campaign. The chemical attack was blamed on the Assad regime, but then it turned out to have been a false flag: it was made by the Syrian rebels, on Syrian rebels, with help from Saudi Arabia, in order to smear Assad and escalate the conflict. Russia was able to deescalate the conflict by persuading Assad to give up his chemical weapons stockpile. (It didn’t take much convincing, because Assad no doubt realized that this stockpile was more of a liability than an asset.) The Americans were livid; they had been itching to bomb Syria. Had they done so, the too-evil-for-al Qaeda “Caliphate” known as ISIS, which recently spilled out of Syria and rolled right across northern Iraq, would probably be enthroned in Damascus by now as well.

But in the case of flight MH17, the false flag theory rests on an untenable assumption: that the Ukrainians, if tasked with shooting it down, would in fact succeed in shooting it down. All previous evidence illustrates that when Ukrainians want to shoot down a plane, they may succeed in shooting down  a nursery school, a maternity ward, an apartment building full of elderly Ukrainians, but never a plane. Conversely, if Ukrainians set out to destroy a maternity ward or a kindergarten (as they are known to sometimes do) odds are that they will hit a Boeing. They inherited a now rather obsolete Buk M1 air defense system from the USSR, which, in skilled hands, is quite capable of shooting down a Boeing flying at cruising altitude, but you’d be wrong to think that they have figured out how it works. They held exactly one training exercise using this system, in 2001, and succeeded in… shooting down a Russian civilian airliner! There were no training exercises in using this system until… it was used to shoot down MH17! It was used in Georgia during the war of 2008 over South Ossetia, where it did shoot down four Russian military aircraft, but there it was commanded by American mercenaries of Polish descent. Ukrainians excell at robbing, selling out, dismantling and destroying their own country; but achieving a specific, precise result as part of a highly coordinated mission? Not so much. Case in point: some Australian and Dutch troops wanted to go and maintain security at the crash site, but couldn’t, because the Ukrainians chose the occasion of their arrival to attack some neighboring towns and villages. You’d think that they would treat the opportunity to get some NATO boots on the ground as a Godsend, and act accordingly, but such rational behavior would be, you know, un-Ukrainian. The proper thing for them to do is to go and strafe some nearby village, and get themselves ambushed and slaughtered to a man by an angry babushka with a Kalashnikov.

Once you discount the theory that the downing of MH17 was a highly orchestrated false flag operation, everything falls into place. Why did the Ukrainians deploy their Buk M1 batteries and radar in Donetsk region, even though there was no enemy for them to shoot at? Because they are idiots. Why was there a Ukrainian Sukhoi 25 jet fighter in the air there? Trailing behind passenger jets and using them as human shields is standard Ukrainian practice. Why did that fighter zoom up into the Boeing’s flight corridor and pop up on air traffic control radar at the exact time the Boeing was shot down? That’s a standard evasive maneuver: the pilot saw a missile being launched, and tried to get out of its way by aiming up. If he hadn’t done that, then the story would have been that Ukrainians shot down their own jet fighter as part of a successful (by Ukrainian standards) exercise, held in the vicinity of an international passenger flight just to spice things up. Why did Dnepropetrovsk APC redirect the flight over the war zone and the Buk M1 batteries? Because the Ukrainians had recently issued an order that closed the airspace over Donetsk, well below the plane’s cruising altitude and away from its flight path, but perhaps something was lost in translation to Ukraine’s wonderfully precise official language, and so the APC redirected the flight right over the closed airspace and told it to fly right above the minimum altitude. Why did the Ukrainians launch the rocket? Well, that was probably something like what happened in the movie The Three Stooges in Outer Space. The stooges find themselves inside a rocket. Moe gets hungry and pushes a button that he thinks says “LUNCH” except that it says “LAUNCH.” Hilarity ensues.

If that is what happened, then that’s really embarrassing, not just for the Ukrainians, for whom embarrassment has become something of a national sport, but for their self-appointed American minders. What’s making this situation even more difficult is that western news teams, following in the wake of the investigative teams visiting the crash site, got a chance to look at, and report on, the carnage and devastation perpetrated by the Ukrainians against their own people. Worse yet, the Ukrainian government, so carefully slapped together out of US State Department-approved dregs of Ukrainian society, has in the meantime come unstuck. The coalition goverment failed after a spectacular fistfight on the floor of the Supreme Rada, with the two rabidly nationalist parties walking out (OK, I won’t call them Nazi, but only today). Prime minister Yatsenyuk (who had been hand-picked for the job and nicknamed “Yats” by Victoria Nuland of the US State Department) has resigned. [Update: he changed his mind and decided to stay: or did his American handlers change his mind for him?] President Piglet is still there, but it’s unclear what it is he is doing. In fact, it is becoming unclear whether there even is a Ukrainian government; of late, the officials in Donetsk have been receiving very strange, barely coherent missives from Kiev, obviously written in American English and clumsily translated, then signed and stamped by some Ukrainian monkey to make them look slightly more legit. If the Ukrainian translators run away too, then the American minders will be forced to resort to using Google Translate, making it the world’s first experiment in governance through word salad.

The MH17 disaster and Eastern Ukraine are now front page news across the entire world. The circumstances of the crash are anything but clear, but it is clear that they are not what the Americans initially alleged. This they have already admitted. The Ukrainian government is in disarray bordering on nonexistence. The Ukrainian military is either kettled in traps of their own devising and suffering horrific losses, or blasting away at densely populated districts with heavy artillery and rocket fire. The Ukrainian economy is in freefall, with trade links to Russia severed and industry nearing standstill. The country is bankrupt and at the mercy of the IMF. If you feel that the several hundred lives lost aboard MH17 are a tragedy, then you should consider a larger number: 42 million. That’s the population of Ukraine minus Crimea (which will be fine) and that’s the number of lives at risk from civil war and economic collapse.

The best that the US can do in this situation is to bug out of Ukraine while continuing to babble incoherently. This shouldn’t be hard; bugging out and babbling incoherently are two things that the Americans are clearly still very good at; just look at Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

club orlov

63 Comments on "Orlov: Saving Face"

  1. Arthur on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 10:38 am 


    OCSE: *** bullet holes ***

    Won’t be long until Interpol will issue an arrest warrant for the entire Ukr junta.

  2. Keith_McClary on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 11:03 am 

    Arthur- Yeah, from Monday:
    “Analysis of black box flight recorders from the airliner showed it was destroyed by shrapnel from a missile blast which caused a “massive explosive decompression”, a Ukrainian official said on Monday.

    Investigators in Britain, who downloaded the data, had no comment. They said they had passed information to the international crash investigation led by the Netherlands, whose nationals accounted for two-thirds of the victims.”

    Either the Brits are leaking this sensitive info to Kiev, or Kiev is lying.

  3. PrestonSturges on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 1:28 pm 

    >>Anyone know the fella in the image?

    No, but he’s waving a goose gun.Not sure why….

  4. strummer on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 2:07 pm 

    Keith: “Either the Brits are leaking this sensitive info to Kiev, or Kiev is lying.”

    Actually, there was a scathing response to the leak from the Dutch investigators, but it got ignored by most of the media:

    “The results, given today by Ukrainian security official Andriy Lysenko, have, however, left Dutch officials stunned as they did not expect the “premature” announcement.

    Mr Lysenko told a news conference that the fragments had come from a rocket blast.

    His source however, is under scrutiny after the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) confirmed they did not give the information to Ukraine.”

  5. strummer on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 2:18 pm 

    Also, the “machine gun” claim is wrong. It has been confirmed in many places, by former military pilots, that this is exactly how a SAM hit looks like. The missile explodes in front of the aircraft and thousands of small fragments penetrate the fuselage. The result looks very similar to a machinegun hit.

  6. PrestonSturges on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 2:30 pm 

    >The missile explodes in front of the aircraft and thousands of small fragments

    I have seen films if various missiles packed with tungsten balls or flechettes. Since a defensive system is trying to intercept a plane, it is meant to explode out front and deliver a shotgun blast of identical fragments which the target flies into.

  7. rockman on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 4:01 pm 

    Arthur – “On that fateful day it was Borispol airtraffic control that told mh17 to fly over the warzone,” Thanks. I had not read that. But I don’t tend to follow about collateral damage too closely: bad memories and just too sad. Same situation with what’s going on in Israel.

    But such reports would certainly feed the conspiracy mill.

  8. Davy on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 5:17 pm 

    Art, you still don’t have me sold. This is a YouTube flic. How do I know the authenticity? I will also confer that a missile explosion will riddle and aircraft with shrapnel that appear to be bullet holes. They are the same thing really bullets are shrapnel are bullets. Another issue is a fighter spraying an airliner with machinegun fire would not have the opportunity to riddle it with 30MM fire due to the way planes fly. Think about the speeds involved. Another thing with 30MM cannon fire is you would not need more than a couple of rounds. This is not WWII where you have 50 calibers that have to focus large amounts of fire on a plane. Those where dog fights. This is a passenger plane. All you need is one shell to decompress a passenger plane and at that altitude cause catastrophic effects. Also the Uks are right an explosive decompression will occur with a missile “But” 30MM cannons will do the same decompression. Art, you have a right to be extra sensitive because of what was done to so many of your country men but don’t fall into the same trap the western MSM is in. The jury is out until the investigators speak. All this internet hype is hype. We all know how easy it is to Photoshop anything

  9. JuanP on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 5:55 pm 

    The MH17 fiasco will not be resolved beyond a reasonable doubt, IMO. Deniability would mean shooting it down from a plane would not be an option, IMO, in a false flag operation if this is what it was since nobody but the Ukrainians had military planes up there and a reason to do it. So, I remain pretty certain the MH17 was shot down with a medium range ground to air missile.
    I have no idea who fired that probable missile or whether it was accidental or on purpose. The missile used was most likely a Soviet era one originally made in Russia and, IMO, highly unlikely to have been given by the Russians to the rebels.
    If this was done by Kiev, it is well known that Ukraine received these systems from Russia many years ago. If it was done by the Donbass rebels, there were very credible reports and images of the rebels capturing one of these systems weeks before the incident.

  10. Keith_McClary on Thu, 31st Jul 2014 10:12 pm 

    strummer- Thanks for that link.

  11. Arthur on Fri, 1st Aug 2014 2:33 am

    There are eyewitnesses that the MH17 was trailed by a Ukr fighter. Moscow showed the radar pictures to that effect and as far as zi know, Washington has not denied that a Ukr fighter was in the vincinity of the plane. Washington simply ignores it. Yes, maybe the bullet holes are from shrapnel, but that can originate from a air-to-air missile, fired from a Su-25 as well. Decisive in my view are the recordings of the conversations between airtraffic control and pilot. The pilot must have seen the fighter on his own radar and reported it. As long as Kiev and/or investigation team witholds the recordings, I am going to assume they are trying to cover up the real events. Kiev-the West has the motive, not the rebels. And again, everybody with a smartphone and a flightradar24 app could have known the identity of the plane. A mistake is highly unlikely.

    P.S. a Su-25 has 250 rounds of 30 mm ammo.

  12. Arthur on Fri, 1st Aug 2014 5:08 am 

    Sanity regarding MH17 from honourable, very high-ranking Americans: CIA, NSA, State (oh, and did I say they are all

  13. sharonw on Mon, 4th Aug 2014 4:01 pm 

    This is great! It is sad, but very very funny, because so true. In this a bad situation, all we can do now is laugh instead of crying.

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