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Page added on September 19, 2011
Oil price differentials, not emissions, the key to Keystone
If activists fail to stop Obama from approving the tar sands pipeline, the recession could still kill the project.
James Hansen, NASA’s lead climate scientist, says if TransCanada Pipeline’s Keystone XL mega-project connecting Alberta tar sand producers to Gulf Coast refineries is approved, it is game over for the planet.
It certainly won’t be game over for Alberta’s oil patch or the thousands of North American steel workers who will build the massive pipeline. And I rather doubt it will be game over for the planet. If Hansen is worried about emissions growth, he just has to look at where the global economy is heading these days.
A bear market for carbon
Lest Hansen forget, recessions are good for emission reduction. In fact, they’re the best things for them. The deeper the recession, the better it is for the atmosphere.
When the former Soviet Union crumbled and the Russian economy de-industrialized and shrank, its emissions fell by a staggering 30%. And emission reduction wasn’t even a goal of the Russian government. As well, the emission reduction during the recent US recession was greater than what would have been mandated by the now defunct Waxman-Markey Climate Change Bill.
Considering the vast majority of emissions from gasoline come not with its extraction and processing but when you turn on your car’s ignition and start burning the oil in your engine, maybe we should be more concerned about the number of cars on the road as opposed to the source of their fuel.
Bad news for Detroit, good news for climate
Here there is reason for real optimism. While there are 240 million oil guzzling vehicles still on the road in America, the number has plateaued and it will soon start to decline. Annual US vehicle sales, once over 17 million units, are now running around 12 million, and they were running below the scrappage rate during the last recession. When that happens, there will be fewer cars on the road. Fewer cars, in turn, translate into fewer emissions no matter where they are getting their gasoline.
There are still some basic issues about the pipeline project. But the real issues are not so much environmental as they are economic.
Will the pipeline connection to the Gulf Coast simply be a conduit for Canadian oil to be trans-shipped to foreign markets and capture more favorable world pricing? If so, how does that help America?
Or will the flow of 500,000 to 900,000 barrels a day through the Keystone XL pipeline to the Gulf Coast be sufficient to bring down bulging inventories of stranded, land locked oil in Cushing, Oklahoma and eliminate, or at least substantially reduce the huge price spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate?
If it doesn’t, and the over $25 per barrel spread between US domestic oil prices and world oil prices persists, new pipelines will be built in Canada to provide a more direct connection to global oil markets.
One way or another, it is oil price differentials, not James Hansen’s concerns, which will ultimately determine the flow and direction of oil from Canada’s tar sands.
– Jeff Rubin, Transition Voice
10 Comments on "Oil price differentials, not emissions, the key to Keystone"
Kenjamkov on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 12:35 am
Sure the recession will reduce consumption, but, in the case of the Tar Sands, the 1 barrels used for 3-4 produced is not going to reduce carbon in the atmosphere. Remember the oil from the Tar Sands is not the same EROEI as WTI. Think on this, the 1 trillion barrels of oil in the Tar Sands will use an equivalent of 300 billion barrels in order to produce it.
PM on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 9:39 am
“The dysfunctional nature of the climate sciences is nothing short of a scandal. Science is too important for our society to be misused in the way it has been done within the Climate Science Community.” The global warming establishment “has actively suppressed research results presented by researchers that do not comply with the dogma of the IPCC.” — Swedish Climatologist Dr. Hans Jelbring, of the Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics Unit at Stockholm University.
PM on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 9:43 am
More Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims – Challenge UN IPCC & Gore
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/9035/SPECIAL-REPORT-More-Than-1000-International-Scientists-Dissent-Over-ManMade-Global-Warming-Claims–Challenge-UN-IPCC–Gore
PM on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 9:45 am
That should get the enviro fascists and commu-eugenicists and world governmenters at this site to jump up and down 😀
Gilles Fecteau on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 1:28 pm
Call me an enviro fascists but when I see the arctic ice dessapearing quickly, drought increasing around the world, force one huricane as far north as Canada,
I must conclude that global warming is real.
PM on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 1:46 pm
Overall arctic ice isn’t disappearing, there has been normal cyclical variations. And don’t mix up weather patterns with climate change. We had a very srong La Nina and changed jet streams and that has been affected by solar activity (as per perfect predictions by Piers Corbyn).
And I didn’t mean to call everyone enviro-fascists, not even the ones who are scared of AGW. So apologies for that. It is just that as soon as climate is discussed it seems to draw out the cultist side of the AGW followers. But luckily more and more scientists have started speaking up about the pseudo-science that is leading us toward a dictatorial world government.
PM on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 1:58 pm
A cpl tedbits:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/facts-debunk-global-warming-alarmism/story-e6frg746-1111118607086
CERN Scientists Gagged On ‘Politically Incorrect’ Global Warming Data
http://www.prisonplanet.com/cern-scientists-gagged-on-%e2%80%98politically-incorrect%e2%80%99-global-warming-data.html
Good debate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma6cnPLcrtA
armageddon51 on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 2:08 pm
ouch, one of those again ! 4 posts from PM. Repeat after me ; “Global Warming” is a scam ! so just keep on burning and driving as usual. Ouf I’m so relieved. Thanks PM for sharing your discovery with us.
-If you are unsure of what you’re saying just shout it a thousand times and it will become the truth-
Roderick S. Beck on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 3:56 pm
PM,
Global warming is a fact. You are in the same camp as the guys that call evolution ‘a theory’.
Your comments are exceedingly stupid.
Mr Bill on Tue, 20th Sep 2011 4:29 pm
PM, “Overall arctic ice isn’t disappearing, there has been normal cyclical variations”.-So why is the sea level consistently rising every year for the last few decades? I think I’ll go with the peer reviewed science rather than your comments.