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Page added on July 22, 2016
Peak Oil Redux
Peak conventional crude petroleum oil production is apparently here already – the only thing that’s been growing global total liquids is North American unconventional oils : tight oil – which includes shale oil in the United States of America – and tar sands oil from bitumen in Canada – either refined into synthetic crude, or blended with other oils – both heavy and light.
But there’s a problem with unconventional oils – or rather several – but the key one is the commodity price of oil, which has been low for many months, and has caused unconventional oil producers to rein in their operations. It’s hitting conventional producers too. A quick check of Section 3 “Oil data : upstream” in OPEC’s 2016 Annual Statistical Bulletin shows a worrying number of negative 2014 to 2015 change values – for example “Active rigs by country”, “Wells completed in OPEC Members”, and “Producing wells in OPEC Members”.
But in the short term, it’s the loss of uneconomic unconventional oil production that will hit hardest. Besides problems with operational margins for all forms of unconventionals, exceptional air temperatures (should we mention global warming yet ?) in the northern part of North America have contributed to a seizure in Canadian tar sands oil production – because of extensive wildfires.
Here’s two charted summaries of the most recent data from the EIA on tight oil (which includes shale oil) and dry shale gas production in the United States – which is also suffering.
Once the drop in North American unconventionals begins to register in statistics for global total liquids production, some concern will probably be expressed. Peak Oil just might be sharper and harder and sooner than some people think.
4 Comments on "Peak Oil Redux"
Bob on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 1:01 pm
Want to see the future? Take the legacy oil fields, with 4 to 6% annual decline rates, and project that forward 20 years. What do you get? Hint: it isn’t a happy motoring world.
Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 7:51 pm
Doomers have been saying this for over a decade, even as they keep claiming we’re past the peak, and total production trends higher over time.
If technology magically stopped advancing, then, yes, if we couldn’t find more recoverable oil with current technology, that would be a problem.
With the practicality of fracking shale formations, and the fact that we’ve hardly touched this capability outside the US — the odds that we’ll have unhappy motoring due to a lack of available crude oil in 20 years appear rather low.
Now, add AGW into the equation and the rise of green energy, and that should help as well, since total demand for crude will almost certainly be curtailed by these factors over time.
Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 7:53 pm
The car and the typical motorist doesn’t much care whether the gas or diesel it needs comes from a conventional source or not. As long as the supplies needed are available in sufficient quantity and quality at an affordable price, motorists will continue to use them until something better (or greener) is available at the same or better price, or until something greener is forced upon them by politicians.
Apneaman on Fri, 22nd Jul 2016 8:11 pm
Outcast_Searcher there is just one metric I need to track to see if the humans are taking AGW seriously. It’s called the Keeling curve. The first real serious warnings from the scientific community started in 1988 when James Hansen laid it all out in front of the US senate. Take a look at the Keeling curve and tell me how they’re doing almost 30 years later.
1988 – CO2 354.18
http://www.carbonify.com/carbon-dioxide-levels.htm
July 21st – CO2 404.66 ppm
Global Warming Fact: More than Half of All Industrial CO2 Pollution Has Been Emitted Since 1988
http://blog.ucsusa.org/peter-frumhoff/global-warming-fact-co2-emissions-since-1988-764
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
There is already enough CO2 in the pipe to do billions in and many unstoppable positive self reinforcing feedback loops are underway, so you can put your little green energy dream away – all your future dreams cause the humans are going to a place they have never been before and nothing can stop it. It’s just like the humans and their growth obsession – nothing can stop that either. Physic and biologly splain it.