We see the impact of the conventional oil peak in Venezuela. As an example let’s look at the El-Furrial field.
Fig 1: Not La-Hora-Zero (yet) but low voter turn-out for the May 20 Maduro election
http://800noticias.com/foto-caracas-desolada-este-domingo-en-pleno-proceso-electoral https://twitter.com/eutrafico
Location
Where is El Furrial?
It is located 30 km west of the capital Maturin of the State of Monogas (named after a 19th century president, population 1 million) in the North East corner of Venezuela.
Fig 2: Location of El Furrial
Geology
Fig 3: Geological setting
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2009/10202chatellier/poster
Fig 4: Map and 3D view of 3 fields
Exploration on the northern flank of the East Venezuela basin started in 1978. In 1986, discovery well FUL-1 penetrated 276 m of net oil sandstone and produced up to 7300 bbl of 26° API oil per day. El Furrial turned out to be a giant oil field (6×14 km at 14,000 ft) and 4 years later in 1990 reserves were estimated at 1.2 Gb
In 1999 PDVSA estimated following production profile for the 3 neighbouring fields of El Furrial, Santa Barbara and Carito with a peak around 2006
Fig 5: Cumulative production of 7.4 Gb over 19 years
http://slideplayer.es/slide/5423119/
Promedio: average, Base de recursos: resource base, Inversiones: investments, Gastos: expenditure, VPN: net present value
Water and gas injection
Production went through several phases. After 6 years of primary production pressure had gone down to 8,000 psi at which point water injection started. Gas injection was added another 6 years later. By 2013 (the year in which Maduro came to power) pressure had fallen again to such an extent that artificial gas lift was necessary.
Fig 6: Maintaining reservoir pressure (SPE paper Oct 2013)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310794483_SPE_WVS_237_Alternatives_for_Implantation_of_Gas_Lift_in_Deep_Wells_of_El_Furrial_Field
In December 2014, a presentation by Julio Herbas Pizarro for an Abu Dhabi workshop on enhanced oil recovery (EOR) shows more details on the impact of water and gas injection:
Fig 7: El Furrial Impact of water and gas injection
https://www.slideshare.net/JulioHerbas/abu-dhabi-dec-2014-eor-workshop-julio-herbas
Actual production
Fig 8: Oil production in El Furrial (PDVSA statistics)
Oil reserves
Fig 9: El Furrial cumulative production and reserves from PDVSA
Remaining proved reserves given by PDVSA for end 2016 were 861 mb. See table (p 42) in “Informe de gestión annual 2016” http://www.pdvsa.com/images/pdf/iga/IGA_2016_Compilado.pdf
But the shape of the time series of cumulative production (red columns) suggests that the curve seems to asymptotically approach a much lower ultimate recoverable. A simple Hubbert linearization shows a trend towards an ultimate of 3.5 Gb.
Fig 7: El Furrial Hubbert linearization using above production data
Jean Laherrere from ASPO France arrives at a slightly higher number:
Fig 8: Estimate of ultimate recoverable (EUR) by Jean Laherrere
Conclusion:
In a political system like in Venezuela it is even more difficult to beat oil decline at the end of an oil field’s life. Watch out for what’s going to happen on Caracas’ autopistas.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th May 2018 6:49 am
Another super giant bites the dust..but BP and the media will keep lying and claiming they have the largest oil reserves in the world..
Anyone seen plan b around?
LetStupidPeopleDid on Mon, 28th May 2018 8:52 am
You cannot extract a net negative energy source like tar sand either Canadian or Venezuelan without the help of a external energy source.
Or said in another way: you cannot extract tar sand oil with only the energy provide with the tar sand oil because tar sand are net energy negative.
But hey, ask people on peakoilbarrel, they will tell you it is because the price of oil is too low to make tar sand extraction possible.
Human need to move away from money as a way to do business into a energy unit system.
Boat on Mon, 28th May 2018 9:18 am
The world has so much energy they flare Nat gas to speed up oil production. The reason tar sands work…Nat gas is used to heat the sands to get the oil out. For big producers in Canada it’s like almost free energy to get at the oil.
Texas refineries get some of the cheapest gas in the world to process the oil because of the oversupply.
Whip out your eroei and calculate that. Since fracking exploded the entire world’s price of energy for electricity has dropped by 2/3. Did you know in the US electricity uses more btu’s than transportation?
Nat gas had underpinned the US and world’s economy for around a decade. Coal and nuke struggle to survive as a result.
deadly on Mon, 28th May 2018 9:36 am
A heavily trafficked road like in the photo reveals a dynamic robust economy.
They must all be out to lunch.
JuanP on Mon, 28th May 2018 10:13 am
Venezuela is screwed. It is all downhill for them from now on. I see Venezuelans everywhere. They have been the most conspicuous foreign immigrants in Miami for more than a decade. Even Uruguay has received a lot of Venezuelans. Last time I went back home I met a lot of Syrians and Venezuelans. The Uruguayan young emigrate, but many foreigners are immigrating there because compared to other places it is not that bad. All in all, most people in Uruguay are better off than most people in the world.
dave thompson on Mon, 28th May 2018 10:37 am
The U$ is saving Venezuela for later when the middle east oil goes dry. The U$ will make some kind of proclamation that the bad guys need to be taken out for the sake of freedom and democracy. Oh and while we are at it U$ oil company’s will the take the oil.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th May 2018 10:59 am
The Trump effect: New study connects white American intolerance and support for authoritarianism
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-effect-new-study-connects-white-american-intolerance-support-authoritarianism-ncna877886
Politically speaking, tribal nationalism always insists that its own people is surrounded by “a world of enemies”, “one against all”, that a fundamental difference exists between this people and all others. It claims its people to be unique, individual, incompatible with all others, and denies theoretically the very possibility of a common mankind long before it is used to destroy the humanity of man..
-Hannah Arendt
The Origins of Totalitarianism
Davy on Mon, 28th May 2018 11:11 am
http://www.nbcnews.fakenews.com
Just another mainstram media outlet of the lying liberal left.
While I do not deny American intolerance with Trump supports, worse is coming out of the extreme left. This article is trash.
GregT on Mon, 28th May 2018 11:52 am
“This article is trash.”
It would be an opinion piece Davy, and if you bothered to read it, you would find that there is an opportunity for you to vote for or against that opinion.
In answering the following question: Do you think populism is a threat to democracy?, so far 74% have voted in agreement, while 11% have voted against.
Your opinion would be in the very tiny insignificant minority, but don’t let that stop you from continuing to lash out.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-effect-new-study-connects-white-american-intolerance-support-authoritarianism-ncna877886
MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th May 2018 12:00 pm
Davy
Ad hominem, is a fallacious argumentative strategy whereby genuine discussion of the topic at hand is avoided by instead attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, or persons associated with the argument, rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists..
-Hannah Arendt
And that is you Davy..Someone who thinks NBC news is fake but Zerohedge and the UK spectator is real..You are as dumb as clogg.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th May 2018 12:05 pm
Davy
Worse is coming from the extreme left? The extreme left are hippies..You think they are a threat? LOL False equivalency..
MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th May 2018 12:07 pm
Trump is using Memorial Day to peddle merchandise..
Made in Jina!
https://imgur.com/a/PNVIgM2
Code “remember”? What a cringy dick!
GregT on Mon, 28th May 2018 12:25 pm
Davy doesn’t appear to understand what healthy debate is all about, which flies in the very face of the democratic principal, freedom of speech, and freedom of expression. His ideology would be better served by living in a country like North Korea.
Davy on Mon, 28th May 2018 12:44 pm
“It would be an opinion piece Davy, and if you bothered to read it, you would find that there is an opportunity for you to vote for or against that opinion.”
I read it grehger and if you bothered to read it for what it is you would see it is just more extremist left propaganda. Just imagine if I posted a similar piece from foxnews.fakenews.com. You extremist would be all over it like stink on shit but that is how you operate double standards and all.
“In answering the following question: Do you think populism is a threat to democracy?, so far 74% have voted in agreement, while 11% have voted against.”
Yea, Trump populism. WTF
“Your opinion would be in the very tiny insignificant minority, but don’t let that stop you from continuing to lash out.”
Sure grehger, insignificant? Here? In the US or the world? What opinion and in regards to what? What is the opinion grehgor? Surely you don’t think minority here with your supermajority of 3 or 4 dumbass anti-American extremist?
I think we are seeing just more empty stalking and pricking out of you. Try harder next time. I think you are soar because I have neutered you so many times you can’t think rationally.
Davy on Mon, 28th May 2018 12:45 pm
“Davy doesn’t appear to understand what healthy debate is all about”
lol, says the extremist anti-American Canadian stalker and pricker who lives by double standards. Try harder to hide your whining grehgor.
GregT on Mon, 28th May 2018 12:52 pm
It is someone else’s opinion Davy. Whether you subscribe to that opinion or not, is irrelevant. In a free and democratic society, healthy debate is a privilege that can be used to change other’s opinions.
Shouting other people down with name calling, childish rhetoric, and delusional accusations, does not sway other peoples’ opinions. It only helps to reenforce them, and makes you look like an idiot.
GregT on Mon, 28th May 2018 1:19 pm
“lol, says the extremist anti-American Canadian stalker and pricker who lives by double standards. Try harder to hide your whining grehgor.”
I’m not an extremist Davy, I’m not anti-American, I do not live by double standards, and I’m not whining.
More paranoid delusions.
I’ve made my position very clear to you in regards to your ongoing personal attacks towards others, including myself. As long as you continue, I will call you out at every available opportunity.
Manila1 on Mon, 28th May 2018 1:26 pm
“Shouting other people down with name calling, childish rhetoric, and delusional accusations, does not sway other peoples’ opinions. It only helps to reinforce them, and makes you look like an idiot.”
BINGO!
Never a referenced, intelligent, mature rebuttal, just more of the above.
Davy on Mon, 28th May 2018 1:26 pm
Quit stuttering greggie. I caught you in your usual double standard tangle. The lame lecture on free speach is likewise a joke coming from the stalking prick. Hypocrite is whining about name calling as he does it routinely along with his character assassinations. You are pathetic greggie.
Davy on Mon, 28th May 2018 1:29 pm
I love it, two dumbasses with one stone. 3rd world, what would you do without greggie taking your arm and walking you across the street?
Now if either of you extremist could say something besides you noise.
GregT on Mon, 28th May 2018 1:37 pm
People are entitled to their own opinions Davy. You have absolutely no say in what other people think, or believe.
Your little emotional tirades and temper tantrums do not make one iota of difference at all.
Davy on Mon, 28th May 2018 1:43 pm
Duh, greggie, how many times are you going to say the obvious. More mental stuttering out of Mr double standard anti-American extremist. You love to talk respectable and moderate but that is just a camouflage for your extremism which shows from the company you keep.
rockman on Mon, 28th May 2018 1:46 pm
“Shouting other people down with name calling…and makes you look like an idiot.”
“name calling” = “makes you look like an idiot.”
LMFAO!
Manila1 on Mon, 28th May 2018 2:16 pm
Davy: the 3rd grade bully no one listens to.
BTW: Standing out there all by yourself is not very threatening is it? Where’s your backup gang? Could it be that you are too delusional even for those like MM or Boat?
Davy on Mon, 28th May 2018 2:44 pm
3rd world, say something intelligent or don’t waste space. You are such a narcissistic loud mouth.
GregT on Mon, 28th May 2018 8:29 pm
You’re projecting again Davy.
Anonymouse1 on Mon, 28th May 2018 10:28 pm
Do you even know what narcissism means dumbass? Of course you don’t. Mak has never really displayed any such tendency, not to any significant degree, that I or anyone paying any sort of attention has ever picked up on.
You and the other hand exceptionalturd, well, lets just say its not just a defining characteristic, its about the ONLY characteristic you seem to possess. Of course you are hardly alone, but I have to wonder why you use the term? Is it because you seen me use (when referring to another actual narcissist here), and you figured using it would make you sould all kinds of book smart or something?
MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th May 2018 10:31 pm
Britain was hours from breakdown of law and order during GFC: Ex-chancellor
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/104295018/britain-was-hours-from-breakdown-of-law-and-order-during-gfc-exchancellor
MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th May 2018 10:50 pm
Libya in chaos since overthrow of Kadhafi
https://www.yahoo.com/news/libya-chaos-since-overthrow-kadhafi-031034815.html
DerHundistlos on Tue, 29th May 2018 2:44 am
Oh, yeah, Exceptionalist, the terrible lying Left. That’s the real problem facing the nation. What a pathetic joke.
Meanwhile, in the real world of Republican integrity……Between when President Donald Trump assumed office in January 2017 and the end of April, the average number of public false or misleading statements he has made per day has been increasing. According to the Washington Post’s fact checkers on May 1, “for the president’s first 100 days, Trump averaged 4.9 falsehoods a day… since we last updated this tally two months ago, the president has averaged about 9 lies a day.”This is a significant rise. Our calculations suggest that if the current escalation rate remains steady, by the end of his term the president could be making as many as 19 public false statements a day, on average.
MM, “false equivalency” is what it’s all about.
Davy on Tue, 29th May 2018 4:31 am
“Do you even know what narcissism means dumbass? Of course you don’t. Mak has never really displayed any such tendency, not to any significant degree”
What is significant degree, weasel? LOL, so he is narcissistic. Did you feel almost guilty of lying? We all know 3rd world spends much of his comments praising himself and what he has done all is life. He talks about how healthy is and how he is going to live to 100 in a 3rd world backwater without health insurance. So weasel do you know what your comment demonstrates? Ass kissing.
Davy on Tue, 29th May 2018 4:39 am
“According to the Washington Post’s fact checkers on May 1, “for the president’s first 100 days, Trump averaged 4.9 falsehoods a day… since we last updated this tally two months ago, the president has averaged about 9 lies a day.””
Washingtonpost.fakenews.com, der hund can you tell real news from fake news. We know wash pop poo is a lobbying arm of Bezos who is one of the king lying liber lefty rich boys that has been responsible for the worst of what is occurring in this country. I would love to see what the falsehoods are. Are they like the Russian thingy that is really a witch hunt and turning out to be the greatest scandal in US history? Yea, der hund great example from a wacked out old Dem that needs to stay away from the car keys. BTW, I need to keep a dollar for every time you claim something “false equivalency” which BTW you do routinely with your twisted support of the lying liberal left.
Davy on Tue, 29th May 2018 5:13 am
“London-to-Langley Spy Ring; The Roots Of Obamagate Become Clearer”
https://tinyurl.com/y79apn5k
“an excellent forensic dig into the earliest stages of the US Intelligence Community’s surveillance of people in Trump’s orbit – and makes clear something that many pointing to a politicized “witch hunt” have long suspected; the Obama DOJ/FBI began looking into “Trumpworld” and the Russians long before the official timeline would suggest. Moreover, the operation was conducted in close coordination with foreign counterparts, primarily the United Kingdom and Australia, but primarily the former. All of this raises plenty of questions, but one conclusion about this epic fiasco requires no spying: the fingerprints of the British are all over it.”
“Here’s the crucial paragraph in the story: GCHQ first became aware in late 2015 of suspicious “interactions” between figures connected to Trump and known or suspected Russian agents, a source close to UK intelligence said. This intelligence was passed to the US as part of a routine exchange of information, they added. Notice it doesn’t say the “Trump campaign” but “figures connected to Trump.” One of those figures was Michael Flynn, who didn’t join the campaign until February 2016. But Brennan and British intelligence had already started spying on him, drawing upon sham intelligence from Stefan Halper, a long-in-the-tooth CIA asset teaching at Cambridge University whom Brennan and Jim Comey would later send to infiltrate the Trump campaign’s ranks.”
“The size of the London-Langley spy ring isn’t known but its existence is no longer in doubt. In light of it, Obama State Department official Evelyn Farkas’s bragging bears reexamination. It is obvious that gossip about the transatlantic ring had spilled out to State Department circles and other Obama orbits, generating chatter even from a relatively minor figure like”
“Whispers of the ring’s work had picked up by the time Brennan had formed his “inter-agency taskforce” at Langley and Comey’s official probe began. Brennan was presiding over a “turf-crossing operation that could feed the White House information,” as revealingly put by Michael Isikoff and David Corn in Russian Roulette. The operation also crossed an ocean, placing a central scene of the spying in London as the ring oafishly built its file.”
“What started in late 2015 with promise ended in panic, with British sources for the alleged Trump-Russia collusion going silent or mysteriously disappearing. A few days after Trump’s inauguration, the director of GCHQ, Robert Hannigan, abruptly resigned, prompting the Guardian to wonder if the sudden resignation was related to “British concerns over shared intelligence with the US.” All of this raises plenty of questions, but one conclusion about this epic fiasco requires no spying: the fingerprints of the British are all over it.”
Manila1 on Tue, 29th May 2018 5:49 am
Davy, “…say something intelligent or don’t waste space.”
Davy on Tue, 29th May 2018 6:02 am
3rd world, I guess you are not intelligent enough to understand what I posted above. This is understandable considering you are a 1st semester college dropout that resulted in a life as a construction worker. Nothing wrong with that but it is apparent you did not take your education further even though you could have IOW you took the lazy way out and now try to brag how smart you are.
joe on Tue, 29th May 2018 6:38 am
What Americans should be really pissed off about is that for the second time we can see how the UK directly interferes with the US political system. I mean had Russia sent a professor to anyones campaign…..
Did America really declare Independence? Obama used the FBI in conjunction with a foreign agency to spy on US citizens. The liberal movement is proving itself to be no better than what they claim to oppose. For all their law breaking what did they find? Nothing, cause Trump it seems never lied about his activities in Russia. Trump is right, it is bigger than Watergate cause where Nixon used the republicans hired goons, Obama used alien elements. Who knows what damage they did to America, did they plant stories? Did they bribe people to do things or say things which were not true? Liberals have shown they cant be trusted with the Internet data of people and again you can see how the use of English academics are being used as proxies to break the law in America. By offshoring spying the US is opening itself up to British control. Trusting British spies cost Americans thousands of lives in Iraq and now you guys believe what they media is saying about Trump? Muellers probe could be based on rumors started by the British to help Obama. But why would they do that?
IMHO its because like everyone else they all believed that Trump didn’t have a hope. That they had nothing to lose by aiding who they thought was going to be the obvious winner of that election. They would destroy Trump and Clinton would be grateful. I guess the American people had another plan. I just hope you guys have the balls to see this one out. The world cant really afford to see this brushed under the carpet. People need to be brought to book and account for what they did in 2016 during that election. Trump might get his chance to drain the swamp, if people are brave enough to come forward and tell the truth.
Manila1 on Tue, 29th May 2018 7:11 am
Davy, my intelligence obviously exceeds yours. Anyone reading your rants can see that. Intelligence is not measured by how many years you paid to be taught propaganda. It is the ability to see reality and true facts and use them to form a view of the world as it exists and to project where that world is likely going.
Whereas, you live in a world of narcissistic delusion. You have a superiority complex among other problems. Get help before you cause harm to others.
Davy on Tue, 29th May 2018 7:32 am
Davy, my intelligence obviously exceeds yours.
More bragging by the board narcissist
“Anyone reading your rants can see that”
At least I am capable of producing more than a few one liners like you do. How intelligent is agreeing with your groupies or disagreeing with your adversaries. You rarely say much and when you do post references they are redundant and empty of explanation.
“Intelligence is not measured by how many years you paid to be taught propaganda.
Ah, being able to complete a University education is an important indicator of character. This is just another one of your life long failures in the US like your family, divorce, and Mormon experience.
“It is the ability to see reality and true facts and use them to form a view of the world as it exists and to project where that world is likely going.”
In your case this is a personal emotional agenda of hate that manifests itself on this forum as redundant generator of discontent and lack of respect for others. You are an extremist magnet. Any of your groupies or friends here are also part of these distortions. You are truly noise and a detractor from intelligent conversation. I will continue to neuter this extremism until the end. I promise you that 3rd world.
“Whereas, you live in a world of narcissistic delusion.”
Are you using my description of you at me because your mind is so bereft of content?
“You have a superiority complex among other problems.
That would be you 3rd world. You constantly preach a final devastating war that of course you survive and most others die from. You talk like ALL Americans are horrible and you are not. You claim to be right on most ever subject. I think you need to look in the mirror grandpa.
“Get help before you cause harm to others.”
Geeze, please quit the worn out amateur psych shit 3rd world. You and grehgie use that when you run out of ideas. Pathetic
joe on Tue, 29th May 2018 7:48 am
MBS absence continues
“https://www.albawaba.com/loop/rumors-swirl-around-over-mbs-fate-after-month-long-disappearance-where-he-1138154”
“Translation: “A legitimate question after his absence took too long: Where is the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman? Did any of you saw any recent videos for him, not footages?”
On the other hand, other users went to hope that MBS is actually dead since he has been raising controversy over his amendments and internal and foreign policies.
Alyaa Gad, the Arab-Swiss activist tweeted another point claiming that there are internal conflicts inside the Saudi royal family which prevents them from announcing his death, in addition to diverting people’s attention by the latest arrests for Saudi women and activists.”
This is really serious news being overlooked by almost the entire global media, some people are asking questions though. If MBS is dead then who is running Saudi and how does it impact their future polcies.
Recently arresting women and rolling back on the OPEC deal with Russia signals that the old guard are back in control. Massive news and media silence indicates just how sensitive this is.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 8:03 am
‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Bombs With $150M Global Debut
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/05/27/box-office-solo-a-star-wars-story-bombs-with-148m-global-weekend/#3387343c221f
Taylor Swift’s concert’s bombed, and now Star Wars..The consumer is tapped out..
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 8:33 am
‘It sent a tremor down my back’: Alistair Darling reveals how Britain came within hours of the ‘breakdown of law and order’
http://uk.businessinsider.com/alistair-darling-uk-breakdown-of-law-and-order-financial-crisis-2018-5?r=US&IR=T
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 9:19 am
Children of immigrants being caged like dogs at ICE detention centers..
https://imgur.com/a/YKcXtTd
MASTERMIND on Tue, 29th May 2018 9:22 am
Billionaire George Soros: ‘The European Union is in an existential crisis’
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-george-soros-the-european-union-is-in-an-existential-crisis-2018-05-29
Simon on Wed, 30th May 2018 5:40 am
Well done lads, 6 posts to get off topic.
lets see if we can beat that next time