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Page added on February 27, 2013
National Breakdown of Recent Oil Supply Flatness
In trying to understand why global oil supply has flattened out lately (in 2012 for the whole world, and since late 2010 for non-OPEC supply), I found it helpful to make the above graph which shows the top ten countries, and bottom ten countries, for change in oil supply between the second half of 2010, and May-October 2012 (the last six months available from the EIA).
Basically, the big increases have come from the US tight oil boom (with an assist from Canada), and also from the reasonably stable countries in OPEC, which have been increasing production (principally Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait). Â Meanwhile, the decreases have been coming from ongoing exhaustion-related declines in the North Sea (UK and Norway), together with a variety of political problems around the globe (sanctions on Iran, instability in Sudan, Libya, and Syria).
So, the question of how much supplies go up or down in 2013 is likely to turn on how much the forces of entropy and political chaos affecting oil producing countries weigh against the profit motive acting to bring more supplies from stable countries.
4 Comments on "National Breakdown of Recent Oil Supply Flatness"
Plantagenet on Wed, 27th Feb 2013 9:59 pm
It will be interesting to see what happens when US-style fracking of shale oil spreads to South America, Asia, Europe and Africa.
BillT on Thu, 28th Feb 2013 1:34 am
With any luck it will not spread. Maybe they are smarter than the Us and want to keep their ecology alive and not deadly. And then there is the up coming financial collapse that will end a lot of expensive activities around the world when there is no money to finance these ‘oil pipe dreams’.
But, even if they happen, they will just be drips and dribbles and not nearly enough to offset decline as has also been happening for the last 8 years.
Beery on Thu, 28th Feb 2013 2:26 am
Planty, I know you’re unable to conceive this, but not every country has the geology necessary for fracking to work. The US is quite fortunate in that regard. And even if fracking could be done anywhere, it’s never going to give us the volume of oil we’re going to need, because it’s a limited time thing. In 5 years, the Bakken will be completely played out.
keith on Thu, 28th Feb 2013 3:30 am
I wonder if the U.S. gov. is using the keystone pipeline debate as a focus point in the media so no real critical mass builds-up in the populace against fracking? The tar sands are horrible but are contained in one region. While fracking seems to be coming to a neighborhood near you any time soon. And whats with small towns getting all nimby with wind turbines but willingly bending over for some horizontal drilling. Just cause you can’t see it, you shouldn’t be concerned. It’s time the land whales lose weight, bring on peak oil.