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US Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggests


Turns out, America’s decade-long shale boom might just end up being a little too good to be true.

There’s no denying that fracking has turned the U.S. into a force in the global oil and gas markets, which has more than a few people abuzz about the prospect of energy independence.

But now, researchers at MIT have uncovered one potentially game-changing detail: a flaw in the Energy Department’s official forecast, which may vastly overstate oil and gas production in the years to come.

The culprit, they say, lies in the Energy Information Administration’s premise that better technology has been behind nearly all the recent output gains, and will continue to boost production for the foreseeable future. That’s not quite right. Instead, the research suggests increases have been largely due to something more mundane: low energy prices, which led drillers to focus on sweet spots where oil and gas are easiest to extract.

“The EIA is assuming that productivity of individual wells will continue to rise as a result of improvements in technology,” said Justin B. Montgomery, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the study’s authors. “This compounds year after year, like interest, so the further out in the future the wells are drilled, the more that they are being overestimated.”

‘Same Dynamic’

Extrapolating from field studies Montgomery and his colleague Francis O’Sullivan conducted in North Dakota’s Bakken shale deposit, the research suggests that total U.S. oil and natural-gas production from new wells could undershoot the EIA estimate by more than 10 percent in 2020. Things would get progressively worse each year after that as wells in various sweet spots are exhausted and technology fails to close the gap.

“The same forecasting methods are used in other plays in the U.S., and the same dynamic is likely to be present,” Montgomery added.

Margaret Coleman, the EIA’s leader of oil, gas and biofuels exploration and production analysis, said in an email “the study raises valid points” and the administration is looking at ways to give its estimates a tighter focus. She added that many shale fields lack the detailed well data that informed the MIT study, which means EIA forecasters have to use known geologic information and assumptions about prices and technology to come up with estimates.

OPEC’s Epic Battle Against Shale — A QuickTake

There’s little doubt the technologies used to extract oil and natural gas trapped within rock formations thousands of feet below the Earth’s surface — like drill heads, mapping software, fracking techniques and so on — have gotten better. And intuitively, it makes a lot of sense that better methods have boosted U.S. shale output and helped lead to new finds.

“It’s really hard to bet against the ability of the industry to improve and get more out of the rock,” said Manuj Nikhanj, co-chief executive officer of RS Energy Group.

Undisputed Leader?

Just last month, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said shale production will make the U.S. the “ undisputed leader of global oil and gas markets for decades to come.”

But if the MIT researchers are ultimately right, the implications could be significant.

In the past three years, oil prices have been stuck around $50 a barrel on the back of rising shale output in the U.S., while natural gas has been selling for an average of less than $3 per million British thermal units. (As recently as 2014, prices for both were twice as high.)

Not only could a slowdown in production mean higher energy prices, but it also might just mark the end of the U.S. shale industry’s role as the one swing producer able to counter OPEC’s might. The shale boom has repeatedly frustrated the Saudi-led cartel’s attempts to control oil prices.

As recently as 2015, OPEC tried to pump its U.S. rivals out of business, only to blink after shale drillers adapted by reducing costs. On Thursday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to maintain oil-output cuts through 2018, extending a campaign to wrest back the global market from America’s shale industry.

Power Struggle

President Donald Trump himself has talked up “energy dominance” as a key policy, with U.S. oil and gas helping supply the world’s power needs.

Of course, the MIT researchers aren’t the first to question the projected growth of U.S. shale. Analysts have long debated varying methods used to predict output. And unsurprisingly, the Saudis have cast doubt on how long the shale boom can last. Even billionaire oilman Harold Hamm recently slammed what he considered EIA’s “exaggerated” forecasts, saying they’re depressing U.S. oil prices. (After all, higher prices are better for the bottom line.)

Yet MIT’s findings stand out by providing some evidence that backs those assertions. The problem with the EIA’s numbers, the researchers say, is that they give drillers too much credit for coming up with ways to improve fracking.

While the EIA’s model assumes that technical advances — such as well length and the amounts of water and sand used in fracking — increase output at new wells by roughly 10 percent each year, MIT findings from the Bakken region suggest it’s closer to 6.5 percent, according to Montgomery.

Increasing productivity of each new well matters because it’s the only way to boost output. Typically, production drops precipitously soon after a well is tapped. The EIA recently estimated about half of U.S. oil output came from wells two or fewer years old.

Field of Dreams

So even though output in the Bakken more than tripled from 2012 to mid-2015 on a per-well basis, MIT’s research suggests the main reason is that shale companies abandoned iffier fields to drill in the best acreage following the slump in energy prices. The trend is evident in local North Dakota statistics. Output in still-booming McKenzie County has held steady while neighboring Williams and Mountrail counties have experienced declines.

“There certainly could be some validity to getting a rosier forecast because right now, the industry is working sweet spots,” said Dave Yoxtheimer, a hydrogeologist at Penn State University’s Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research. “When that’s all played out, they’re going to have to go to the tier-two acreage, which isn’t going to be as productive.”

Indeed, some signs of a slowdown have started to emerge. Gas output in the Marcellus basin has fallen 10 percent on a per-rig basis since reaching a high in September 2016. In the Permian, per-rig oil production has decreased almost 20 percent over a similar span.

Richard Bereschik knows firsthand that shale isn’t a sure thing.

The bearded, burly superintendent of schools in Wellsville, Ohio — a small, Rust Belt community located along the western bank of the Ohio River — recalls the rush he and other townsfolk experienced when Chesapeake Energy Corp. came through some six years ago, leasing out huge tracts of property for development.

Wellsville sits atop the Marcellus and Utica shale formations and is only 20 miles from a concentration of sweet spots, but Bereschik says Chesapeake stopped renewing leases after the bottom fell out in prices.

“Everyone thought we’d found a goose that laid the golden egg,” Bereschik said. But ultimately, “it’s not the boom we all expected.”


36 Comments on "US Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggests"

  1. shortonoil on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 4:24 pm 

    David Hughes has been talking about this since he published Drill, Baby Drill in 2013. The EIA has a love affair with technology!

  2. William Sadler on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 7:14 pm 

    Etc just announced Sept production. Down (again).

  3. Anonymous on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 7:47 pm 

    SEP17 production was up 290,000 bpd.

  4. Anonymous on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 7:48 pm 

    Better link:

  5. MASTERMIND on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 9:01 pm 

    The US Shale Business is “not profitable” and can’t fund itself whether oil is at 100 or 50 dollars a barrel

    MIT Technology Review: Shale Oil Will Boost U.S. Production, But It Won’t Bring Energy Independence

    The world’s largest oil trader Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018

    Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude

    Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom

  6. peakyeast on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 10:51 pm 

    I dont know if I remember correctly, but I think I saw EIA themselves predicted that the U.S. shale adventure would only last until 2020 where it would peak.

    If the idea that 80% of the conventionals are in decline and has been for a few years – then the depletion there will be accelerating rapidly in the next few years. It seems unlikely that shale will be able to scale once we get away from the peak-plateus in conventional plays.

    This fits with the limits to growth updates btw.

  7. Makati1 on Fri, 1st Dec 2017 11:28 pm 

    Peaky, I think that the only thing holding up the shale game is the constant inflow of debt that has been made easier by the zero interest rate and the fools in the market that believe they can get rich by borrowing and buying. The least burp in the system will bring it all crashing down. I don’t pay attention to claims of “what is left” or what “the price next yea” will be because is all guesses. Government info sources are no more true than those of the fortuneteller down the street. I wait for the first domino to fall and it will not be much longer now.

  8. DerHundistlos on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 12:15 am 

    “Hey America, fuck you. I don’t give a shit that I am making your last wilderness areas accessible to my buddies in big industry. When the world ecology collapses, me and mine will be all sng and protected. P.s. If you think your Trump campaign membership card will afford you special consideration, then you are really a dumb fuck.”

    ~~~~President D. Trump~~~~

    With thanks to President Fuck Face:

    “President Trump will travel to Utah on Monday to announce that he is repealing protections for as many as two million acres of public land in the American West, an area more than six times the size of Grand Teton National Park, including vast portions of two national monuments in the state, Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante.

    Mr. Trump’s plans add up to the largest elimination of protected areas in American history. He is a vandal in our midst, coming in person to lay waste to the land. This theft of our heritage should awaken us to the damage being piled up across our public lands under this administration.”

    ~~Gov. Bruce Babbitt~~

  9. Makati1 on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 12:42 am 

    DerHundistlos, it ALL about $$$$. The US cannot pillage any more 3rd world countries so the resource monster is being turned lose on the 50 states. Cannibalism in government form. Big corporations will turn the US into Giedi Prime, the home planet of the Harkonnens in Frank Herbert’s “Dune”.

    “Dune: The Alternative Edition Redux (Alternate Ending)”

    I would recomment this version if you have three hours to spend in an imaginary time and place…

  10. Davy on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 12:45 am 

    Shale is little different from most other undertakings in the global economy these days. They all operate on debt for the most part. This debt has assumptions and expectations and anymore they are generally not consistent with normal fundamentals of earlier times when business was much more sober and real. Profits are taken immediately through debt so everyone uses debt. The time value of money is a no-brainer and is the reason debt is so wonderful. Tell a story about the future and reap the rewards now. The classic cake and eat it game.

    Many undertakings uses technological assumptions to be more than they are or they assume growth of one kind or another used to forecast returns on investments inconsistent with reality. If the return on debt does not materialize it is easy these days to extend it. Projecting out into the future in the current environment of moral hazard is made easy by marketing. The further out one goes the more room for the pretending part of moral hazard.

    Business cycles with their volatility and risk have been subdued but cycles and risk are never eliminated. They are just compressed and dispersed. They don’t disappear except in a fantasy world of human nature in a Ponzi. It is all the easier when rate repression and easing accompany this new price discovery. Financial gimmicks and marketing tactics peddle a narrative and that narrative is basically Ponzi in nature. Human nature in this Ponzi is driven by financialized techno optimism and the manifest destiny of growth and development. This is society’s creed and we follow like a religion today. Price, profit, and affluence rule.

    This is happening in an ever more disturbed planetary system and climate. Remember stable climate is a requirement of civilization. This new aspect of our civilization is typical of many previous ones in respect to the denial and disregard for reality near their end. This moral hazard of denial accompanies civilizations as they grow into ever greater diminishing returns a finite planet enforces. Inertia stupefies the momentum of growth as entropic decay influences an overextended system. A balanced systems that is more sustainable and resilient can last much longer.

    Our global and modern civilization is pressured and extended in most every category today. This is a new condition because now all undertakings are influenced by the macro systematic dangers of the instability of the system itself. The dispersion of risk and volatility is now part of the foundation and no longer confined to exotic aspects of our civilization that were niche like. financialization was once a niche but now it is part of the basic fabric of our civilization.

    Shale is a part of this condition of moral hazard. Oil is foundational so it influenced by this condition. Resource dynamics of depletion and diminishing returns to technology will slow growth. It is unclear how long other technologies like renewables will be able to supplement these dynamics in regards to the inevitable depletion of energy vital to growth. It is also unclear how long the economy can be repressed and confidence and liquidity managed to pay for all this technology and consumption.

    What is clear is we are a late term civilization and we are in denial of this. The current shale game is one of denial at the level of policy. It will be a dangerous policy error because we continue to ignore resource decline from depletion because of this new environment of the science denial of techno optimism. Scientific understanding is optional today when it is combined with the agendas of business and politics. This will not end well for a civilization overextended and suffering diminishing returns when growth based and dominated by complex efficiencies. When populations are far too great to adjust bad things happen.

  11. Cloggie on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 2:29 am 

    Oil/gas price increase coming up. Bring it on. It is good for:

    – a global rush into renewable energy
    – the geopolitical power of Russia
    – decreasing of economic growth worldwide

    Three plusses.

  12. Theedrich on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 3:26 am 

    Irrational U.S. oil exuberance? So what else is new?  Ever since the whacko Protestant “Pilgrims” landed on North America to make a new Promised Land, the expectation — indeed, the demand — of the Yankee madmen has been that the future WILL be better, no matter what the cost.  So, overstate expectations of shale yields in order to dupe the markets, and all will be well.  10%/year tech improvement sounds much better than 6.5%, so broadcast the former number.  And mention nothing about the fact that other countries (e.g., Russia) will be investing heavily in oil R&D and capex, so that continued U.S. superiority in this area is by no means a sure thing, even barring any likely disruptions of any sort, such as may be due to the inevitable Washingtonian crimes and brain seizures.

    Universal IT- and AI-driven overcomplexification is leading to an increasingly dark outlook.  Just a few days ago this very website,, was shut down by hacker operations of unknown provenance.  The Demonic Party’s technique of blaming everything on Russia is wearing thinner and thinner, as hacking emerges everywhere else.  Also, Saudi Arabia’s current convulsions are themselves signs that traditional black gold sources are becoming increasingly inadequate to sustain the fun and games instituted in Sandland by that medieval schizophrenic madman who commanded his followers to conquer the world through mass slaughter and mayhem everywhere.  As Tainter (The Collapse of Complex Societies) has pointed out, needs always outrun complexification, thereby bringing about collapse.  And 6.5% extraction-tech improvement per year, as opposed to 10%, will result in that demise sooner rather than later.

  13. deadlykillerbeaz on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 4:57 am 

    I dunno, but it is going to take some time to pump the Bakken dry and it keeps on trucking.

    I read about a well in Russia that has a 15 kilometer horizontal. The Russians know that it doesn’t matter what it costs, we’re gonna give it a try. Watch the videos on YouTube of Russian all-terrain vehicles crawling through the Ural frontier. Amazing automation with heavy metal.

    The Bakken began with one well pumping 200 bpd and now has more than 11,000 wells pumping almost one million barrels per day.

    One thing about oil production, if there are a million barrels of it for sale, economic supply, and the Bakken is able to provide a million or some number a bit less, it means there are buyers of Bakken oil.

    Doesn’t matter what the price is, the demand is there and what the buyers pay is what they pay, the going price to meet the demand.

    If there is no demand, the Bakken would not be there.

    A vast overestimation only means demand will decrease.

    Just have to drill more wells and there will be more oil, it just won’t last as long.

    To be brutally frank, the Bakken Formation is a strategic oil resource. Having 11,000 wells pumping oil now is a plan, not a mistake by any means. Having a steady supply of crude oil at your doorstep at the ready is part of the plan, Stan.

    When was hacked, I cried, was inconsolable, couldn’t be rational. So I went outside to get some sunshine. No sooner did I do that and my mom yelled at me, “You get back in this house and back downstairs into the basement where you belong!”

    Have to listen to your mom, even if she is crazy.

  14. dipak on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 5:09 am 

    I lie in Oklahoma . All I see is train after train carrying crude to Cushing . This trend seems to be increasing . MIT guys live in different world which is not real. There is total glut of oil everyehere .

  15. dipak on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 5:09 am 

    I mean live not lie lol

  16. Davy on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 6:19 am 

    “Oil/gas price increase coming up. Bring it on. It is good for: – a global rush into renewable energy
    – the geopolitical power of Russia – decreasing of economic growth worldwide Three plusses.”

    Wow, who has ever know what oil price is good for? The effect of prices varies so much depending on the particular economy at the time. How does dutchy know this “good for” will occur. Of course he gives no backup to tell us how we will get there. He does not connect the dots of decreasing global growth and a renewable rush. How is a renewable rush going to be built out with lower economic activity? Renewables are not cheap there is a cost involved. A “rush” means in my book a economic paradigm shift. Those paradigm shifts are expensive. When a region gets significantly penetrated with renewables then the cost go up significantly when storage must be employed. Dutchy your comment does not add up.

  17. dave thompson on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 6:58 am 

    MIT is saying what many critics have been saying. From M King Hubert to the Club of Roam. The basics are, humans pick the low hanging fruit first. Then either move on to the next best thing or try to go up the scale to the less easy until depletion and collapse.
    Oh sure some might argue that fracking for LTO is just a sign of human ingenuity and technological advance.
    My money bets on the fact we are headed for trouble and in the midst of the end of growth. The low hanging fruit is gone in the oil patch. Fracking,Tar Sands,Arctic drilling and deep water off shore are all the signs proving so.
    FF extenders like wind, solar,wave and the rest are never going to replace the energy density of liquid crude.

  18. Dredd on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 7:49 am 

    “a flaw in the Energy Department’s official forecast” – RIGZONE

    That “flaw” is actually propaganda, one of the ingredients of social dementia (Etiology of Social Dementia – 18).

  19. joe on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 8:03 am 

    Personally I think the tight oil boom is driven by a historically unprecedented low interest rate and a spending boom that brought a 6trillion national debt to 20trillion. The Trump tax cuts will drive America’s debt even higher to maybe 35 trillion and further on. With the aging population in the western world then development and growth has to come from emerging economies, so making America great again by cutting taxes for apple and alphabet as well as the bank’s won’t really help much. Unless that is you own or run these lovely organizations…..
    With low growth you have to have low rates of interest. So there’s lots of cash for sucking otherwise too expensive oil out of the rocks.

  20. Davy on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 8:24 am 

    Joe, we are playing the same game you are. I am glad I am not on a overpopulated little Island without much in the way of resources. I would rather be here in my shoes than yours. I think this is why you are so anti-American. It sucks being British.

  21. Sissyfuss on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 9:00 am 

    I think the new tax bill and the shale phenomenon are mirrored images of our new normal. Magically created fiat given away to keep BAU pumping with the day of reckoning pushed as far into the future as possible. With overshoot and LTG what else ya got?

  22. Cloggie on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 10:59 am 

    Joe, we are playing the same game you are. I am glad I am not on a overpopulated little Island without much in the way of resources. I would rather be here in my shoes than yours. I think this is why you are so anti-American. It sucks being British.

    Are you sure? Currently the UK is the biggest investor in offshore wind. Who needs oil if you can harvest “wind fuel” for free, for ever?

    Can you actually mention a single country that is not anti-American, other than Micronesia?

  23. Davy on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 11:24 am 

    “Are you sure?”
    ahh, whatcha talking about dutchy? I was talking about the debt game. You Euro’s are at it big time especially GB.

    “Who needs oil if you can harvest “wind fuel” for free, for ever?”
    Sure dutchy, in your fantasy future there is wind power forever and 1KW is 1KW fantasy.

    “Can you actually mention a single country that is not anti-American, other than Micronesia?”
    We are talking degree here dutchy and topic. People want to live in the US and like visiting. Most countries like Americans as people but most countries don’t like American official policy. I don’t like official policy either. One policy I don’t like is the policy of bankrolling Euro security. That is stupid you rich Eurotards can fund your own security.

    The anti-Americanism here on the board is the extremist type of those who are peddling a hypocritical agenda. Most of the agenda peddlers like you are narcissistic and borderline mental psychopaths. You, mad kat, and grehg the T are in that category of stalking and pricking Americans for personal emotional reasons. Nothing wrong with American critical when it is on topic, balanced, and respectful. You are rarely this way dutchy. You and others here are preaching the violent end of American civilization. You then whine when I moderate and neuter this message because of so many inconsistencies and lies.

  24. Cloggie on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 11:49 am 

    Sure dutchy, in your fantasy future there is wind power forever and 1KW is 1KW fantasy.

    Wow, Davy has information that the planet is going to run out of wind any time soon. This is going to be good.

    Peak Fart!

    Bear and popcorn, Davy talked himself in a hole.ROFL

  25. Davy on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 11:56 am 

    Dumb und dutchy, no problem with the wind it is the economy, social stability, and habitable climate all in a degraded planetary system.

    Lol, you are such a dork!

  26. Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 3:00 pm 

    Davy, global GDP increases every year following 2009. So how is that “decreasing” economic activity?

    Or are you counting on more forecasts by doomers, which fly in the face of the median forecasts of actual economists, as economic growth and many forecasts have shown signs of strengthening in recent months?

  27. Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 3:02 pm 

    Davy, doomers have been claiming debt will ruin everything since the first time I started paying attention, a good 35 years ago.

    They might be right someday, but with global GDP increasing annually, pretending that more debt, any debt, is all bad is the kind of wrong-headed thinking that causes fast crash doomers to constantly incorrectly predict the next fast crash is right around the corner.

  28. Makati1 on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 3:38 pm 

    Outcast, the numbers are increasing but the real GDP is not. Most countries pad their numbers to keep up appearances. The US is probably #1 in changing how they calculate the number.

    The US has actually had a contracting GDP since about 2007. TPTB want to keep the appearance of growth because anything else would destroy the Market Casino and take down the country. Ditto for most 1st world countries. Yes, there is growth in a few countries, mostly Asian. Real growth. But the world total is negative or flat for the last 10 years.

    Debt is taking down the US as we type. You just want to ignore the signs.
    And on and on…

  29. coffeeguyzz on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 3:53 pm 

    These kind of articles can be both humorous and educational if a serious reader were to use the info as a starter point.

    The ending paragraphs describe the situation in Wellsville, Ohio located in Columbiana county.
    Yes, it is located just beyond the extraordinarily productive counties to the south.
    Still, it is a stone’s throw west of the new, $6 billion cracker Shell is building in Monaca.
    The jobs growth and economic boom in that area will continue to reverberate for decades to come.
    10% decline per rig in the Marcellus?
    Could that be attributed to the shift to the wetter southwest PA region due to pipeline constraints in the NE?
    How about the continued drilling of the Utica in Tioga and Potter counties where the learning curve is far less productive than the mature, hyper productive northeast PA?
    Speaking of which, how about wells flowing over 50 million cubic feet per day like the McGavin, over 40 MMcfd like several Range and Cabot wells?
    The literally dozens now routinely flowing over 20 MMcfd for up to a year?
    All the wells STILL being choked back due to both pipeline and pricing matters?

    I guess making sweeping statements with catchy headlines passes for informational reporting nowadays.

    Shame, that, as the true story is hugely impacting all of our lives.

  30. Makati1 on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 4:13 pm 

    Dream on Coffee…lol

  31. Davy on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 5:03 pm 

    OS, the rate of growth of growth is stalling or haven’t you noticed? I would also say what is real growth today? Do you know? I doubt you know becuase most everyone is in a new normal of value and price discovery. Debt is being creatively managed. Bad debt is relative these days. So you can blah blah the techno optimism that all is fine all you want. All is not fine. We better not have declining growth or we will be in a bad part of town. You probably never have seen the bad part of town have you?

  32. Davy on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 5:07 pm 

    Coffee, you ruined Mad kats day. He hates to hear good American news. It makes his ass pucker.

  33. onlooker on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 5:21 pm 

    Actually, that growth is illusory OS as it is built on an unsustainable bubble or if you prefer Ponzi scheme

  34. Makati1 on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 5:34 pm 

    Onlooker, don’t burst Davy’s fantasy bubble. It only causes him to spew more bullshit. Or, maybe it is goat shit. lol

    Coffee is obviously blind to reality. Sucking up those USMSM propaganda pieces from the oily sector. About as real as Santa Clause or the Easter Bunny. lol

  35. Davy on Sat, 2nd Dec 2017 6:47 pm 

    mad kat, I thought you were ignoring me these days. Did you forget about that. I think it is hard for you these days without the support of your gang. Remember the old days when you could count on the gang now you are just a lonely old man struggling with a worn out agenda.

  36. joe on Sun, 3rd Dec 2017 8:36 am 

    I agree Davy, it does suck allot to be British, I mean we can’t win at football (a sport we invented) and our liberal leaders lied us into Iraq just like yours. Then again, I’ve never had to put my hand in my pocket whenever me or anyone in family got sick. So it has its benefits. Now all there is to be done is to kick out Brussels and (our ‘overpopulated’ as you say ) we can we can be on our way. Simple fact is Davy, all nations and countries are fucked mate, even yours, so don’t get too high up on that horse, its a long way down pal.

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