It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 6:36 am
As I said above I will burn your shit planet down to ground into ashes.
Look what we have here
Torrential rain triggered flash floods, landslides and cold lava flow, which is a mixture of volcanic ASH, rock debris and water that flows like mud, in Indonesia’s West Sumatra province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7aJihbwXms
I will burn your shit planet.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 6:39 am
I will burn you shit planet and turn it into ashes.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 6:45 am
Fucking Europeans, low IQ communists and natural resources thief. I will burn your shit planet staring by UK, Israel and Europe. I will burn your shit planet.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 6:48 am
Am I travelling between 2 dimensions. Sure seems that way. Burn this fucking planet.
eee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:40 am
I will burn your shit planet. i will irradiate flesh body and cook you the same way we cook meat in a microwave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrNtIDRox7Q
eee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:56 am
Never take away the handguns or firearms of a man. Never put any kind of laws on handguns and firearms ownership and carru options. Some man will cook the population of earth alive, like meat in the oven for such a transgression.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:02 am
I will cook earth population alive, like a chicken in the oven. You should suicide yourself while you still can. I can cook you with microwave, I don’t need the sun to cock you alive.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:21 am
You will cook earth population alive by microwave. We will do it slowly so you suffer more and for a longer time. You should suicide yourself while you still can.
Never take away the handguns or firearms of a man. Never put any kind of laws on handguns and firearms ownership and carru options. Some man will cook the population of earth alive, like meat in the oven for such a transgression.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:26 am
It is worst that we thought. You are not stupid, you are heavily mentally retarded. This is why earth is a hell hole. Its population is heavily mentally retarded people. We send you on planet earth because we don’t like you. Everything you touch turn into shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHX1iP3qB2E
Telkom University on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:54 am
Interesting perspective on peak oil demand and the IEA’s predictions. It’s essential to consider various viewpoints when discussing such complex topics. Thanks for sharing this thought-provoking analysis.
M'as te tu ma grosse chienne a Martineau on Mon, 13th May 2024 9:11 am
Si je deviens le King de l’Amérique du Nord, est-ce que je peux tuer la grosse chienne a Martineau. Le tabernacle n’est pas assez intelligent pour donner son opinion, pis sa face est trop laide pour être montré à la téle. Je peux tu torturer la merde a Martineau avent que je le tues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDE9xIPlcY4
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 9:14 am
Criss de grosse chienne a Martineau, tu représente bien la population du Québec. Tu es un criss de médiocre mon tabernacle, comme la population du Québec. C’est a cause de médiocre commen toi, que les gars comme on abandonné le Québec. Ma te tuer ma criss de grosse chienne.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 9:15 am
I will set this shit earth in fire.
eee on Mon, 13th May 2024 9:21 am
Mathieu Bock-Côté un autre trop de cul que je serais facilement capable de tuer a mains nues. Grosse christ de merde de tabernacle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxiQVRPg7D8
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 9:29 am
Sometime I want to become King just to kill and torture people. I could kill piece of shit Legault, la grosse a Martineau pis sa femme, la chiene a Bock-Côté, Obama, Trump, Trudeau,
Imagine the number of people I could kill. Al l the staff or Radio-Canada, TVA, CTV.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 9:42 am
Nothing is more easy to slaughter then a population living in a big cities and that is completely disarmeds. I don’t know what will happen, but I suspect this will be an enlightening lesson as to why you should not put any laws of firearms ownership. You will see on easy it is to slaughter a population that is disarms and how easy it is to turn a smart cities into a death camp where you have no electricity, water, food an you cannot leave because you are being encircled and shoot at as soon as you try leave.
Only a pickup trucks, regulars automatic riffle and helicopters to control the perimeters area, If people try to leave the area you shoot them.
Once you give away your weapons, you are begging to be massacre by a more aggressive tribe.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 10:13 am
The first you will notice is that women will become paralyze with fear and will be good at nothing. They will most likely stay inside the city and die there. Same with old people. Maybe just there you kill 50% of the population inside a city just because they are female and old. These people will not be a threat.
This will be an enlightening lesson as to why you should not put any laws of firearms ownership.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 10:21 am
When you will have a couple of fat guy sitting in the box of a pick up truck wearing regular civilians clothing and killing people with a cheap automate rifle, you will see how easily it is to kill unarmed people.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 10:59 am
Once in a while a 12 year old girl, will escape the perimeter area and captured. She will be raped and gang bang. It will ber an enlightening lesson for all of you losers, when you realized that she loves it and she wants more of it. After that she will be seated in the truck cabine and she will smile be proud of her.
Some of you stupid piece of shit are in for a big shock, fucking worthless piece of crap.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 11:27 am
It will be an enlightening lesson for all of you losers. The only people that will be able to leave the area are young female from 12 to 20 year old, that accept to be raped and gang bang. You fucking worthless piece of shit and crap.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 11:31 am
The young men from of 15 to 30 years old will be recruited to be part of the army or militia. From there the size of your army and militia will grow and you can attack more targets.
ddd on Mon, 13th May 2024 1:05 pm
I want to repeat that, I am not here to help earth, I am not here to be your King. The comments above are about mocking how stupid the population of earth is and why we are going to kill them for that.
I am here to collect your cadavers. I have not seen one failure of the principle of conservation of mass, therefore natural resource depletion will happen.
I just want earth cadavers because I hate you
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 1:09 pm
You took my handguns from me, I will burn you alive for that. Nothing will ever change that.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 1:15 pm
I will destroy your piece of shit planet. I hate you too much to help you.
Austin-area weather: Strong storms possible Monday, May 13 | Live radar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jjqO-xQcn8
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 1:45 pm
You don’t understand ,we have already won. The law of conservation of mass guarantee that.
you are so fucking stupid.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 2:40 pm
It is amazing how mentally retarded is the population of earth. This is one of the reason why we are killing you. During the collapse, some people will figure out that you are defenseless and the will come to kill you. You restrictive firearms laws will turn against you and will be the reason why you will be easily kill. You will be killed by your own stupidity by bullet. The bullet represent your heavily mental retardation state.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:09 pm
You are not a real GOD, you are just a fucking loser. If you were a real GOD you would have reduced already the steel degradation entropic value so steel rust less. You are just a pathetic piece of crap with no real power. You piece of shit theater is useless are you going no where. I would kill you if I could, come down on earth in a flesh body, we will settle this down.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:17 pm
If you were a real GOD, you would have killed all the Jews of the world. The fact that need to do BS theater to kill the Jews proves that you are just a fucking loser. I am waiting for you to play with earth calculators variables to make this reality last longer. When are you going to change the speed at which steel rust. You cannot because you are just a fucking loser.
As per revelationt 19, I will walk over earth’s cadavers.
eee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:23 pm
I will burn your shit planet downs and I will cook its population like a steak in a microwave.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:26 pm
The British and UK can go fuck themself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngdzpvF4xew
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:28 pm
This where you see the optimists coming in and try to suck up to you like UK just did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngdzpvF4xew
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:36 pm
People on planet earth are so heavily mentally retarded that they could not come up with a simple plan to kill people in big cities. You are so stupid that I had to explain to you how to kill people in big cites. It is fucking common sense the plan I put on this website. Fuck you are a bunch of retards. Fuck retarded losers without an once of imagination.
It is nothing special the plan I layout here. It is fucking obvious to anyone with an average IQ. I was right you are just a bunch of retards.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:51 pm
You fucking coward low IQ piece of shit, are waiting for North America to do it first, – killing people in a big cities. If there is not too much backlash and we are successful then you do it in your own nation. Now you understand why I hate UK, Israel and Europe.
This where you see the opportunistic coming in and try to suck up to you like UK just did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngdzpvF4xew
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 7:55 pm
Why don’t UK show us the way how to kill people living a big city like London. If they are successful and there is not too much backlash, we will do it also in North America.
I knew it, you are just a bunch of coward, waiting for some kind of savior that will take all the heat on him if it failed, while you coward will run away and pretend you don’t know him.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:10 pm
It is time for the US to get something back. UK should go first at killing the population living in London and share with us their tactical data and knowledge. Then maybe we will do it.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:15 pm
Do it first on London city and we will happy to learn from you enormous experience in the matter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-PLrfoM8FA
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:32 pm
Nobody wants to be the first nation to bomb a city and kill its whole population. Everybody is waiting for some else to do it first and take the hit if it is not working and take the hit to its reputational damage. It has been like my whore fucking life.
I fucking knew it, Whites western nations are full of cowards and losers.
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:42 pm
You can see how these fucking European losers think. US was the first one to have protest pro-Palestine on Universities campus. When the rest of Western world saw that is kind acceptable they started do it. Maybe Europe could show us the way all on how the kill all the population of a city using helicopters and pick up trucks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0czzyoztmcc
ee on Mon, 13th May 2024 8:50 pm
It is time for Western nations other then US to show us the way how to kill the population of a big city. After that, we might try it.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 8:17 am
Earth is chamber of execution, that could be built on top of my holographic matrix without me knowing it. You here because we hate you.
I have not seen one failure of the conservation of mass principle.
I have no evidences that someone was able to access earth calculators and changed some constants and parameters to make this reality last longer. I see no evidences that someone was able to change the speed entropic degradation of steel so it will rust less.
All the earth population will die as it was planned.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 8:31 am
We really did the right by creating an execution chamber (earth) to send the trash we don’t like for permanent deletion. Earth population is really heavily mentally retarded. It looks like a fucking devolution instead of Darwin evolution. The fast mental degradation of earth population is really shocking.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 8:36 am
It is not uncommon now to have a video on YouTube where people that are speaking have no teeth a black empty mouth. Some of you seems to have no flesh body and are just some kind of light spectrum arrangement put on a TV screen.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 8:43 am
There is definitively some people outside of planet earth that are playing with the holographic matrix and are making changes to it. Too many people on YouTube have no teeth and a black empty mouth. I am not talking about earth calculator such as gravity, chemistry, conservation of mass.
I am talking strictly about the light spectrum part of the holographic matrix.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 8:49 am
The fast mental degradation of earth population is really shocking. It is really a fast mental devolution is real time. If this continue this way, some of you will probable become so mentally retarded that some will lose the ability to talk and make coherence sentences.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 8:59 am
This is why I am not worried about removing all the firearms laws. Most of you are not intelligent enough to use firearms. Most of you will shoot themself in the foot, the knee the torso or hip while taking your handgun out of its hostler.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:06 am
The North American elitist are just a bunch of low IQ losers. You can see the US elites sucking up to the Europeans dick like a good bitch. Each time I see the North America elites suck up to the European elites, I want to set North America in fire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TufaG29B7w
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:12 am
Not only we are seeing a fast mental degradation, we are also seeing fast muscular degradation to the point that they are not able keep a muscular cohesion. See the face of creamer below. It is like their muscles are dying from the inside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlidq9wj_vo
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:17 am
The US has really no friends in the world. This is why that are sucking to Jews and Europeans, because the rest of the world wants nothing to the with the US.
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:21 am
When someone says our friends and allies, as often as Blinken says, it means you have no friends you are hated by everyone in the world, except by Israel and Europe.
This is why this cock sucker is in Europe. You lost the West as I said many times and you won’t be able re rebuilt it,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TufaG29B7w
ee on Tue, 14th May 2024 9:27 am
Anyone with any kind of IQ would have killed this piece of shit of Blinken long ago. He has completely ruined US international standing around the world. Why this piece of shit still alive.