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Page added on September 9, 2018

The world’s not as bad as our brains would have us believe

Even highly educated people have gross misconceptions about state of the world, says the book “Factfulness.” On many fronts — economic, health, mortality, — the real picture is a lot brighter than people think.

Chimpanzees are better at answering questions on the state of the world than Nobel Prize winners, according to a book I’ve been reading.

It’s called “Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think ($27.99, Flatiron Books, 342 pages).

I know, I know: How quaint to rely on facts in an age when people make up their own reality. Well, call me old-fashioned, but I still like facts, as did the book’s author, the late Hans Rosling.

Rosling, who died in 2017, was a physician, an educator and a presenter of several acclaimed TED talks. His book, published in 2018, was an effort to fight what he calls “devastating ignorance” about the world.

He begins with a set of 13 questions about global conditions, including this one: “In the last 20 years, the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has A) almost doubled, B) remained more or less the same, or C) almost halved.

The answer, according to the World Bank, is C. On average, 7 percent of the people in his audiences get that one right. Chimpanzees picking bananas labeled A, B and C at random would score higher, he notes.

Professors, scientists, journalists and Nobel laureates are no better — and sometimes worse — than the general public at the test. It has questions about global life expectancy, education, population, health and environment; in almost every case, the picture is better than people assume.

How could something as important as dramatically reduced poverty escape our notice? Rosling blames it on our brains.

Evolution has hard-wired them to jump to conclusions and rely on gossip and dramatic stories for vital information.

“We need to learn to control our drama intake,” Rosling says. (The news media, he says, supplies plenty of the drama but isn’t a “pantomime villain” on which to blame everything.)

Rosling relies on information from the United Nations, World Bank, World Health Organization, UNICEF and other organizations to sketch a portrait of a world in which fewer people die in natural disasters, children are vaccinated in overwhelming numbers, most girls have access to education and the majority of the globe’s population lives in middle-income countries. (Although a billion do still live in extreme poverty.)

There’s even good climate-change news: Most of the Earth’s population at least understands that it’s happening — “a public-awareness success story,” Rosling says.

The author ended his book with a prediction that his fact-based worldview will eventually prevail for two reasons: Actual information is more useful than misconceptions and exaggerated fears for navigating life, and fact-based thinking creates less stress.

Perhaps, then, reality will make a comeback.

I miss it.

Dispatch

42 Comments on "The world’s not as bad as our brains would have us believe"

makati1 on Sun, 9th Sep 2018 6:49 pm

“The world’s not as bad as our brains would have us believe” Yes it is!

Another author out to make a buck, even if he died before he could enjoy it. There are no “real” stats in the world today. For instance: the “poverty” figures are constantly manipulated to say what the authors/check writers want them to say. What is “poverty” in the US is high living in some countries. Perspective is required.

Reality is only gained by personal observation and reading about the observations of hundreds/thousands of others who live all around the world, not by reading a book by one person who is only projecting his/her view. Again, not reality, just opinion.

Dredd on Sun, 9th Sep 2018 7:06 pm

“Evolution has hard-wired them …”

A giant myth dude (On The Origin of Genieology).

twocats on Sun, 9th Sep 2018 7:31 pm

I’ve met people who are really into this line of thinking (I’m not sure if Rosling is the main proponent. But its got a lot of glaring holes:

1) World Bank & NGOs around them are invested in propagating a system that strips developing countries of resources and labor and ships that surplus overseas. Their job is to sell it, cover for it, and give it a “conscience”.

2) This “halving of extreme poverty” is in a time of one of the greatest rises in available surplus energy and technological advance in history – and still 10’s of millions of people are forced to immigrate, flee war, drought, starvation. Basically a Chimp distributing resources would have done better – since we are using the Chimp trick.

But yes, a lot of developing countries have been pulling millions of people out of rural extreme poverty and shoved them into the lifeless urban sprawls where they eke out their meager existence until they are no longer useful as wage-slave sweatshop labor. So I guess that’s a plus

Eyes Wide Open on Sun, 9th Sep 2018 7:41 pm

Humanzees are also predisposed to put a positive spin on dire situations and seek out confirmation of their opinions. That’s all this book is about, cashing in on a increasingly anxious species desperate to hear “don’t worry, everything is gonna be okay!”.

makati1 on Sun, 9th Sep 2018 7:58 pm

Getting ready for the future… “The American grass-roots school movement immersing children in Mandarin”

It’s about time that Americans become bi-lingual and Chinese will best serve them in the future.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2163355/american-grass-roots-school-movement-immersing-children-mandarin

“It was a totally eye-opening experience to see these five and six-year-olds have a conversation with an adult in a different language that is so different from their native one,”… language immersion programs in which children spend at least half of each school day taking their regular classes, like math, science or physical education, entirely in Mandarin.”

Go for it! If humans continue to exist, Chinese will be as necessary as English once was. It will be the language of trade and science.

Cloggie on Sun, 9th Sep 2018 8:37 pm

Dutch organisation begins to clean up the oceans. Ship with 600m “broom” begins testing in the Pacific, where all the Asians and hence plastic are. Eventually 60 of these broom ships should be operational

http://m.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/the-ocean-cleanup-so-funktioniert-der-plastikstopper-a-1227196.html

George Straight on Sun, 9th Sep 2018 11:11 pm

No, not for us tell legged…but God help you if you are a wild four legged or factory farm animal.

makati1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 12:14 am

America is trying so hard to get a real world war going, to destroy what is left of American freedoms and to take down the Us economy, that you cannot turn around without seeing the blatant signs:

“US Says Assad Has Approved Gas Attack In Idlib, Setting Stage For Major Military Conflict”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-09/us-says-assad-has-approved-gas-attack-idlib-setting-stage-major-military-conflict

“Beware of the American Political Snake Oil Salesmen”
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/09/08/beware-of-american-political-snake-oil-salesmen.html

“Pentagon Sends “Strong Message” To Russia With Live-Fire Assault Drills In Syria”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-09/pentagon-sends-strong-message-russia-live-fire-assault-drills-syria

“With Battle For Idlib Imminent, Russia Releases Video Of Massive “One Of A Kind” Military Drills In Syria”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-08/battle-idlib-imminent-russia-releases-video-massive-one-kind-military-drills-syria

And on and on… See part 2 below:

anon on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 12:29 am

yes, more of the pattern ‘replace concrete examples of how your own life and what you immediately observe around you, sucks more now than before, and substitute for it vague generalizations about how those poor people in africa are doing better now’ … sorry, but that doesnt really warm my heart, it merely illustrates even further that it’s a zero-sum game and that their improvement has come at my expense. more empty feel-good pills to try to distract people from the reality around them.

makati1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 12:37 am

Part 2:

“The Hidden Link Between Farm Antibiotics and Human Illness”
“The Consolidation of the American Harvest”
“1 in 10 Americans say they’ll be in debt for the rest of their lives — reality is way worse”
“40% of Americans struggle to pay for at least one basic need like food or rent”
“A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade high, says Goldman”
https://ricefarmer.blogspot.com/

“When The US’s Stock Market Bubble Bursts, Inevitable Disaster Will Follow”
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/when-the-uss-stock-market-bubble-bursts-inevitable-disaster-will-follow_09062018

“This Story Is A Perfect Example Of The Economic Despair That Most American Families Are Enduring In This “Booming” Economy”
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/this-story-is-a-perfect-example-of-the-economic-despair-that-most-american-families-are-enduring-in-this-booming-economy

“The 11th Hour: 8 Examples Of Mainstream Media Sources Warning Us Of Imminent Economic Disaster”
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-11th-hour-8-examples-of-mainstream-media-sources-warning-us-of-imminent-economic-disaster

And on and on. Slip slidin’…

makati1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 12:41 am

Anon, you see the picture clearly. The Great Leveling is in progress. Some lives will improve, Some will slip down the ladder. Guess who is who in that scenario? East vs West. The rich are going to stay rich, but the rest of us…

forbin on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 1:56 am

” Actual information is more useful than misconceptions and exaggerated fears for navigating life, and fact-based thinking creates less stress.”

if only we can get our political leaders and, more importantly , MSM to take heed of this….

not hold my breath on that.

Forbin

forbin on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 2:01 am

Also the author did not extend his 4 levels to 5 ( or 6 ) . why ? he thought the old 3 level model was wrong so why not the extension ?

Bill Gates ?

maybe

or perhaps if you do this ( I did a quick search and check . This lead me to conclude there is a 5 level , the super yacht level.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/06/sport/gallery/worlds-most-expensive-superyachts-2018/index.html

As George Carlin said , it’s a club and you aint in it !

Forbin

Dredd on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 5:15 am

“The world’s not as bad as our brains would have us believe”

Those brains suffer from “psychological inflation” … a.k.a. hyperactive Amygdala (The Skulls They Are A Changin’).

Davy on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 6:12 am

The narrative of modern life is a techno optimistic one with a sprinkling of corporate consumerism that spreads the idea of cornucopianism. We then have the many influences of skydaddy worship which believes a divine beneficiary will provide for the righteous. Today increasingly we have the corruption of science and academia by corporate and political interest. This is all part of a mythology of exceptionalism and destiny that pervades all modern human cultures. This goes deeper as the instinctual reaction to the denial of death of the human ego only today this denial reflex is on steroids.

There is nothing new with this arrangement but today it is magnified by electronic media and delocalization by globalization that has destroyed many realities of sustainability we have lived with most of our history. Everything seems to be at our fingertips today if desired. We are now dependent and influenced by a global system that pushes a message of growth and wellbeing. This is also tempered by the World Wide Web and honest science. Some of this tempering is extremist doomerism but much of it is honest science. You can dig into reality honestly today if you want. You can get a better understanding of the real picture because the tools are there. It is a minefield though because traps are everywhere.

The real picture is complicated and messy. How much can we really know and how far out can we go with forecasts. When we insert balance with time based assumptions it becomes even messier. We may have several good years ahead then the bottom falls out of normality. Our system is resilient but brittle meaning it is robust in capabilities but dangerously exposed to limits. There could be beneficial technical breakthroughs or opportune natural occurrences that could change the direction of dangerous trajectories of climate and depletion.

What we can say is a significant amount of the global population either does not care about reality or is incapable of understanding the deeper reality of what science is telling us. Many are too old or young. Many are uneducated. Many educated are narrowly educated in specialized fields that prevent them from seeing a forest for the tress. Many educated who see the forest and the tress allow their emotions to tell them optimistically it will be figured out because it always has. Many educated and optimistic do not understand the economy and business so they believe technology will always have the economic backing to achieve ever increasing development that must be part of the mitigation and adaptation to the many and varied problems and predicaments civilization faces. There are very few who study civilization objectively and without an emotional agenda. Some actually want to know the truth good or bad. This would be the wise ones who are seeking the truth.

Wisdom is needed now more than ever and instead we have a blank check narrative of techno optimism and sheep herding by the TPTB for reasons of power and control. Wisdom has the ability to say no and dispense pain and suffering. Today this kind of cruel but necessary wisdom does not sell. The only thing likely to break this hard wiring is an existential crisis. A crisis of this proportion will break down the unreal aspects of this social narrative. Until we have a crisis of a magnitude that threatens our very survival this mass deception both from within the individual and from outside the individual will continue.

The big question is now that we are so far into overshoot of complexity and population can we survive such a truth based cleansing from reality? Can we adapt and mitigate both the destruction of our material world and the destruction of this modern mythology of exceptionalism and manifest destiny? I am not optimistic but much depends on how all this unfolds. What is likely is those areas exposed to the worst of the various overshoot conditions will come under the most relative pressure. This points to a prescription for those who care or have the capability to adjust. Clear the deadwood out of your life and properly locate. Clear your mind of the noise and clutter and focus. This is if you care because much can be said for living now as best you can in a here and now of the moment. Some would call that denial maybe but it is also a liberation. It is easier than living in the future of worry and uncertainty. The reality is there is so much that is beyond our control and even if we do find a degree of relative security for how long?

Hawkcreek on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 6:59 am

The US birth rate is lower than it has ever been.
The US suicide rate is higher than it has ever been.
Those two facts say that something is worse than it was in the past. IMHO.

fmr-paultard on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 7:16 am

guys, you guys are the unprincipled ones. and anontard is just a tard. i’m a tard and a former paultard and i know my roles and limits. we can not critisize our supertards. if we don’t worship our supertards we will have to worship eurotard, antiustard, and aswang. these are just tards.

this is not a casual statement of if this then not that. if you understand how lacking supertards caused phils so much problems, you’d be worshipping supertards (pbuh) too.

fmr-paultard on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 7:18 am

antiustard is selling white supremacy though tubes (recall al gore intardweb is made of small tubes?). this tubes for delivery of good is a rehash of supertard orwell’s pneumatic tubes in “1984” and is marketted as white invention/geniuses.

deadly on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 7:19 am

Your brain is not as bad as the world would want you to believe.

It’ worse. lol

fmr-paultard on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 7:25 am

i find that dogs generally have short term memory of mostly positive outcomes. human have short term memory of mostly negativity. this is why i think we rely on dogs to suplement our true experience of life

Davy on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 8:41 am

“Hedge Fund CIO: “Like 2000 And 2008, This Too Is An Asset Bubble But It Differs In A Fundamental Way”
https://tinyurl.com/y8jekwnn

“I agreed that there’s an asset bubble, but this one differs in a fundamental way. The previous two asset bubbles created a powerful wealth effect. In 2000, the stock bubble made people feel wealthier. They spent more, saved less. When asset prices collapsed, consumption retrenched because the wealth they’d been spending evaporated. Only the debt remained. The same thing occurred in 2008 but with housing. Part of why growth has been comparatively anemic in this bubble is there’s been no discernable wealth effect.”

“But while this expansion is now finally generating inflation, the next market bust is unlikely to spark a deflation like the previous two — because unlike those booms, today’s inflationary impulse is not caused by the wealth effect. Prices are accelerating today in the absence of the wealth effect. Their rise is fueled by expanding deficits, tariffs, tax cuts, anti-immigration, de-globalization – all coming at a time of record low unemployment. These things are new features in the economic landscape, introduced by politicians who were elected to address voter anger over wealth inequality, income insecurity – not just here in the US, but throughout Europe, Japan too. And these new features ensure that this cycle’s turn will look profoundly different from the 2000 and 2008 deflationary collapses.”

“One of the great difficulties in convincing believers that neoclassical economics fundamentally misunderstands capitalism is that, at a superficial and individual level, it seems to make so much sense…. At an individual level, the basic economic concepts of utility-maximizing and profit-maximizing behavior seem sound…. Since they seem to make sense of the personal dilemmas we face, it is fairly easy to believe that they make sense at the level of society as well. The reason this does not follow is that most economic phenomena at the social level – the level of markets and whole economies rather than individual consumers and producers – are ‘emergent phenomena’: they occur because of our interactions with each other – which neoclassical economics cannot describe.” – Steve Keen, Debunking Economics”

fmr-paultard on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 8:53 am

supertard (pbuh), this is illogical. as a former paultrad and a tard, when i deviate from policy by making distinction between the units and the group, i find myself in the wrong. for example, if i advocate taxation for individuals then i should also do so for corporations and groups of individuals. you know how social engineers like to make rational about how it’s better to penalize some entities and not the other.

i respectfully disagree

Boat on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 9:26 am

An article about energy the average doomer can’t comprehend. Efficiency can kill gdp which is a good thing.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/09/10/oil-could-be-toppled-as-north-americas-largest-energy-source-this-year-dnv-gl-ceo-says.html

Davy on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 9:38 am

Kingtard, where did I say that post was right or wrong? I posted the material for consideration because I found it interesting. I feel we are near the end of a cycle and what is coming will behave differently from previous cycles. We have no past experience to reflect on to match the degree of changes since 08 crisis. We are in uncharted waters.

MASTERMIND on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 10:14 am

Alex Jones Gets Spit-On by Jimmy Dore After Crashing The Young Turks Show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=412aatJqbzo&feature=youtu.be

Davy on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 11:22 am

“New Deals Are Being Canceled”: Emerging Markets Increasingly Locked Out From Access To Capital”
https://tinyurl.com/ya8bxqnt

“Following the recent rout in emerging markets, the biggest threat that has emerged to this bloc of nations is neither their slumping currencies – after all, this is a self-correcting mechanism which makes their exports more attractive and following a period of correction which bolsters trade and current account balances, the EM economies should see a rebound in output – neither the sharp drop in local asset prices, which while painful should also rebound once the underlying economy stabilizes. Instead, what is of highest concern to emerging markets is that with local debt at nosebleed levels, and with dollar-denominated indebtedness at all time high levels and in need of being periodically rolled over, a domino effect of defaults could emerge if the countries find themselves locked out of global capital markets.”

Duncan Idaho on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 11:39 am

Alex Jones Gets Spit-On by Jimmy Dore After Crashing The Young Turks Show.

The comedy continues—-
Late stage capitalism can have a sense of humor.

GregT on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 1:56 pm

“Alex Jones Gets Spit-On by Jimmy Dore After Crashing The Young Turks Show.”

Circus.

Turn off the TV and back away from the ‘remote control’.

Sys1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 2:08 pm

“Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think ($27.99, Flatiron Books, 342 pages).

Sure. The kind of books judes should have read in 1943 in Auschwitz in order to get how great the world is just before beeing gazed.

Cloggie on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 2:14 pm

“Sure. The kind of books judes should have read in 1943 in Auschwitz in order to get how great the world is just before beeing gazed.”

Yeah that infamous gentile gaze is killing the poor heebs. It’s so penetrating the heebs get the feeling they are found out, the worst that can happen to them or any mafioso in general.

rockman on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 2:22 pm

I always find it amusing to see such debates about the condition of such unique entities such as the “world”. Or the “US” or some other country. None of these collections of individuals is capable of being characterized as being in some specific condition. There are individuals in the US surviving in severe poverty just as there are Venezuelans living in great luxury.

Of course, one can break down such a collections and throw around statistically relevant groups. But obviously that does not translate to the entire entity. But that doesn’t prevent folks from discussing generalities. Which is fine as long as one accepts there will be exceptions to every generality.

But then there would be no arguments and endless debates. LOL.

Sissyfuss on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 2:42 pm

It’s great news that (some) people are understanding climate change? Great news would be that a majority of people are doing something about it. Not a chance.

Boat on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 3:52 pm

Sissfuss

Blame the Americans and your sins are absolved.

claes rydeman on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 5:03 pm

Mak,
“Another author out to make a buck, even if he died before he could enjoy it. There are no “real” stats in the world today. For instance: the “poverty” figures are constantly manipulated to say what the authors/check writers want them to say. What is “poverty” in the US is high living in some countries. Perspective is required.”

Poverty is not having little, poverty is having to “beg” for the little you got. And that is what the american underclass has to do today to get their daily outcome.
Transferred income will always seem as a gift from the richer to the poorer, while taxreductions seemes to be an incentive to business and creativity. But taxreduction is just transferred income in another way.

Non the less, statistics have shown that the money given to the rich stays where they are, while the money given to the poor in the end goes to the rich.

Poverty is in many ways a state of mind, but dependency, lack of possibilities and general demoralisation just make it worse.
And Mak, that is the grand problem of the chinese Han-empire, how do they make the poor people richer without loosing anything themselves – which they won’t.
China is having the same inequality problem as the US.
let’s see who solves the problem first.

Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 5:36 pm

Ah, the Cassandras like Mak are so cute when they get upset, which is apparently all the time.

Even as the subject is facts, he likes to cite random blogs, random doomer market predictions, and pretend like first world living is “economic despair”.

The folks like him that need to read and absorb a book like the subject the most are the least likely to do it. It wouldn’t converge with their world view, after all.

Better to prattle on with the nonsense of other short term Cassandras, and ignore their HORRENDOUS track record, re being right, especially in the short term.

Anonymouse1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 5:53 pm

Things must be going pretty good on that plantation on yours exceptionalturd, if you can spend your Mondays pecking out rambling boring diatribes no one reads. At least, your cut and pasting w/o attribution(aka plagiarizing), takes up far less time. The time you save C&Ping allows you to allocate more time for your sock-puppets, of course.

You would think a ‘farmer with such extensive land-holdings , AND a erudite world-traveler and all-around renaissance ma…lifeform- like yourself, would only have time to post infrequently, at best. But curiously…that does not be the case with you.

makati1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 5:58 pm

Outcast, who is “upset”? I’m just posting reality as I see it. I am not denying that the world is collapsing as a whole. I’m saying that some parts of it will suffer more than others. Guess which part, and it is NOT the East.

makati1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 6:15 pm

claes, “China is having the same inequality problem as the US.” I disagree. China has grown a huge middle class in the last 30+ years. At least as big as the total US population. This has been done by growing the GDP at double digits so there is more for all.

Yes, China has its billionaires, ~319 and a population of 1,416,000,000. BUT, the US has ~565 billionaires and only 327,000,000 people. Always look at the perspective for reality.

China – 1 billionaire per 4,400,000 people

US – 1 billionaire per 600,000 people.

How do YOU compare China to the US and do it honestly? Answer: YOU do not, claes. YOU just parrot unreasoning propaganda.

makati1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 6:16 pm

Refs for above numbers:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/25-countries-billionaires/

http://worldpopulationreview.com/

Nuff said.

makati1 on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 6:35 pm

GregT, almost all the “news” on US TV is fluff, distraction, red herrings and lies. The serfs have no clue that the real world is much different outside the US MSM Iron Curtain. They will argue with me about conditions in the American Police State yet have no refs to prove they are correct because there are none. Just that dying idea of the American Dream.

They will try to put down my decision to live here in the Ps, with all the negative propaganda they are fed by the same propaganda machine. They do that with no firsthand experience here, and have never even been close to Asia other than the stuff they buy at Walmart.

Sorry, but they deserve what is happening to them and their country today. They are too lazy to do anything serious about it. The indoctrination is almost complete, I think. The Constitution and the Bill of Rights are just paper. Freedom is a word in the dictionary, not in real life there. I may live in a “3rd world” country now, but it is more free than the US, and much safer.

Frank on Mon, 10th Sep 2018 6:40 pm

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is simply a number. How can that be misconstrued?

peakyeast on Tue, 11th Sep 2018 7:09 am

Rosling was one of the greatest fools in the world.

He points out a lot of things that has never been better – and those are true, but they are all better because of us living on 1.4 earths of resources and a fast declining resource base as well as environmental disasters and extermination of all wild life, fish and forests on earth…

Once they are gone all Roslings rosy-red has turned to pitch black.

A dangerous fool is what he was…

The world’s not as bad as our brains would have us believe

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