Peak Oil: Same Pie, Smaller Slices

I have offered several posts on Jeffrey J. Brown’s Export Land Model [here, here, and here]. The ELM is a too-often overlooked yet critically important aspect of (declining) global oil production.

I will be the very first person to acknowledge that my math skills and my understanding of economics hover somewhere just about the “pitiful” marker. I am among the last people anyone should turn to for explanations about even simple concepts. My brain simply does not work that way, and long ago I made the decision that the investment needed to develop a reasonable level of understanding was not worth the potential benefits, and so I rely on many others to offer information and explanations.

Having said that, even I appreciate that in its simplest form, the ELM provides detailed analysis and explanations for an obvious and simple mathematical principle: Oil-exporting nations, whose own economies are growing—or hoping to—require for their own use ever-increasing amounts of the very same fossil fuels they traditionally export.

So when they keep more of what they have to offer, what’s left is less for the rest of us to divvy up. Those of us who “get,” thus get less.

I’m duly acknowledging the production increases from shale, the potential for Arctic production, and the tar sands of Canada. But the Happy Talk and Magic Technology Fairy won’t make up for depletion from existing crude oil fields, so that argument has a limited shelf life once facts are added to the discussion.

Dr. Brown recently published a detailed [and to my way of thinking, quite wonky] explanation and analysis of current trends and clear warnings about the future of fossil fuel availability for nations such as our own. If I was able to understand most of it, mostly everyone else who reads the article will understand it even more.

It’s well-worth the read [graphs, charts, and all]. Sobering to be sure, but more information is always a good thing, and Dr. Brown’s article offers us all not only a great deal of that, but of perhaps greater benefit, he provides us all with stronger reasons to start making plans based on the realities of fossil fuel supplies. Facts still suck, but we ignore them at our increasing peril.

Peak Oil Matters