Peak Oil is You

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Page added on October 17, 2015

Is Peak Oil Just A Myth?

As Niels Bohr famously said: “predictions are difficult, especially about the future.” And they are doubly difficult if you are talking about the future of oil.

The more uncertain the future, the more vehemently each side presents its case. For years a debate has raged about peak oil, the dreaded moment when we start running out of accessible oil reserves, a debate made only more heated by suspicions of vested interests. So environmental campaigners have been crying out that modern society is about to be plunged into darkness, while oil industry experts have blithely assured us that the oil is there, and they will fetch it for us. Even if it lies several miles under the Arctic seabed or has to be stripped from tar in Canada.

Down Dale

Now BP chief economist Spencer Dale, a former Bank of England policymaker, has thrown his reputation into the fray by claiming we will never exhaust the world’s reserves of oil. Concerns about carbon emissions and climate change mean that most of it will have to be left in the ground.

Burning existing reserves of oil, gas and coal would emit more than 2.8 trillion tonnes of climate-harming carbon emissions, much more than the 1 trillion threshold scientists have set to limit global warming to 2 degrees, he says. If he is right, this has major implications for troubled Footsie-listed oil giants such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell, and stricken explorers such as Premier Oil and Tullow Oil. This means the relative price of oil may not rise much over time. Oil at $50 a barrel could be here to stay.

Up Shale

There is another factor changing the dynamics of the global oil industry: the shale revolution. This has weaned the US off energy imports and effectively made wildcat drillers global swing producers, usurping Saudi Arabia’s traditional role. Shale production has soared from zero to 4.5 million barrels a day — about 5% of global production — in just five years. Iran could add another 500,000 barrels as soon as US sanctions are lifted (assuming they are), then an additional 500,000 within six months.

The future of renewables is another energy battleground, again, with lines drawn between left and right. Some claim China could save the world by becoming a renewables powerhouse, others see this as pie-in-a-smoggy-sky. Personally, I expect solar to break through in the next 10 years, with major implications for oil companies. We will never hit peak sunshine.

Peak And Troughs

Supply is just one side of a very complex equation. Demand is another. Both are pointing at the same worrying direction for oil investors banking on a rising price. The International Energy Agency’s October report has just predicted that global demand growth is expected to slow from its five-year high of 1.8 million barrels a day this year to 1.2 million barrels next year.

Spencer Dale is correct. We will never hit peak oil. There will always be reserves out there, but they will either be too inaccessible or politically controversial to extract. Just look at how Shell was forced out of Alaska by a combination of costs, campaigners and regulatory pressure.

Oil stocks could continue to struggle in this climate but with Dale also predicting that global energy demand will rise 37% by 2035, I don’t expect them to fall off a cliff.

BP and Shell may offer juicy dividends today but they could come under threat if oil stays at $50 for the next few years. There may be safer dividend stocks out there.

yahoo finance

54 Comments on "Is Peak Oil Just A Myth?"

paulo1 on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 12:09 pm

OH. MY. GOD.

This one:

“There is another factor changing the dynamics of the global oil industry: the shale revolution. This has weaned the US off energy imports and effectively made wildcat drillers global swing producers, usurping Saudi Arabia’s traditional role.”

And this one:

“Spencer Dale is correct. We will never hit peak oil. There will always be reserves out there, but they will either be too inaccessible or politically controversial to extract. Just look at how Shell was forced out of Alaska by a combination of costs, campaigners and regulatory pressure.”

Does this guy even know the definition of Peak Oil?

Why is this crap posted here? It really isn’t worth a reply beyond saying articles like this make me depressed. That there are people paid to write them takes away a great deal of hope I might have about people, institutions, and intelligence.

ghung on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 12:22 pm

Comments are open at the link. I contributed:

“Spencer Dale is incorrect. Peak oil is the point at which the maximum rate of petroleum extraction occurs, no matter how people try to spin and rationalise it.. At some point, that peak will occur. What the implications of that will be may be debatable, but that the rate at which oil is produced will decline is non-debatable fact. IMO, the economic and net thermodynamic benefits derived from oil and it’s derivatives peaked in the last five years. This peak has been masked by a complex set of responses, primarily in the form of financialised ‘magic’, AKA: massively increasing debt.”

onlooker on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 12:35 pm

I think this article is good for this one quote “There will always be reserves out there, but they will either be too inaccessible or politically controversial to extract. Just look at how Shell was forced out of Alaska by a combination of costs, campaigners and regulatory pressure.” The conclusion I think we must all draw, is that we would not let climate considerations stop us from trying to access the oil rather those other factors cited in the quote plus the simple economic feasibility of the endeavor. It really comes down to the quote that seems to applicable now to the state of the world situation regarding oil and climate. Dammed if we do, Dammed if we do not.

MrNoItAll on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:03 pm

“Why is this crap posted here?”

To generate controversy and page loads, same reason the likes of Plant and marmico (and maybe one or two others…) aren’t banned — because this site exists FIRST to generate ad-click revenue for the owner(s), and SECOND to foster (serious) discussion on Peak Oil related issues. You know — priorities, priorities…

Plantagenet on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:14 pm

“Why is this crap posted here?”

To generate controversy and page loads, same reason the likes of MrNoItAll (and maybe one or two others…) aren’t banned — because this site exists FIRST to generate ad-click revenue for the owner(s), and SECOND to foster (serious) discussion on Peak Oil related issues. You know — priorities, priorities…

Cheers!

Steve Challis on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:39 pm

If you give a completely different definition on peak oil it is easy to prove that it will never happen.

“Why is this nonsense posted here?”

To generate controversy and page loads, same reason people like of Steve Challis aren’t banned — because this site exists FIRST to generate ad-click revenue for the owner(s), and SECOND to foster (serious) discussion on Peak Oil related issues. You know — priorities, priorities…

Plantagenet on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:50 pm

Other then the fact that the YAHOO NEWS writer does’t know what peak oil means, its not a bad article. Its probably true that oil demand will drop next year. Its probably true that oil supply will remain in excess of oil supply next year. And its probably true that people betting on an increase in oil prices next year may be disappointed.

In other words—the oil glut may well continue for another year.

Cheers!

ghung on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 1:58 pm

Not sure why most of you don’t go to these links and call them on their BS dis-information rather than preaching to choir and queer here on PO.com. Methinks you come here to just snipe at each other. Says a lot. Reminds me of the Repuglican debates.

Mike616 on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 2:18 pm

Solar now cheaper than natural gas in all 50 US states.

rockman on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 2:38 pm

“There will always be reserves out there, but they will either be too inaccessible or politically controversial to extract.” No, there won’t be: if hydrocarbons exists and for whatever reason (physical, economic, political, etc.) they can’t be produced they are not “reserves”. At best they might be “resources” but that tag tends to imply they might one day be converted to reserves.

BC on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 2:47 pm

It’s . . . it’s . . . it’s . . . it’s . . . rather annoying that he continues to do this and apparently doesn’t know that he’s consistently incorrect.

And so it goes . . .

steve on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 3:02 pm

I can’t believe I just ate that shit sandwich!

BC on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 4:01 pm

steve, wash it down with delusional dregs. 🙂

Kenz300 on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 5:31 pm

Climate Change is real….. we will all be impacted by it……

Exxon’s Climate Change Cover-Up Is ‘Unparalleled Evil,’ Says Activist

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/exxon-evil-bill-mckibben_561e7362e4b028dd7ea5f45f?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green&section=green

shortonoil on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 6:19 pm

“For years a debate has raged about peak oil, the dreaded moment when we start running out of accessible oil reserves,”

At $47/ barrel there is not a producer on the planet who can cover their full life cycle production cost. They can not afford to replace the reserves that they are extracting. That is presently running $25 to $30/ barrel. Maybe the author just hasn’t had a chance to look at the price of oil for the last few years? Now we need to think up an excuse for Plant!

Here are a few possibilities:

1) Her mother drowned her at birth
2) Her father helped
3) Her underwear is six sizes too small
4) She drinks massive amounts of Kool Aid with too much sugar
5) She watched Mad Max 67 times

BobInget on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 7:15 pm

While I’m sure there are off-shore projects, started before oil prices collapsed, coming on line this year and next, far too many land, sea, efforts were dropped utterly.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3570556-bakken-production-down-plus-iea-predictions

Blowing the case for never ending oil has to be incontrovertible evidence of peak oil everywhere but natural gas and Venezuela’s
and Canada’s oil sands properties.

Doubtless cheap oil hastened the hotly contested turning point for oil prices.

Towards the end of a sex act there’s a tendency to increase momentum.
We can argue for years why oil peaked (again) in 2015. My personal belief tends towards increased military activity.
Others will blame tight shale depletion, AGW. Maybe some claim alternatives are taking over or China’s slump. (india’s petroleum demand increase of 27% could balance out China’s 3% cut in growth).

Confusion between growth and actual higher or lower consumption seems widely dispersed.

The truth remains laid out for all to see.
Nations don’t expend all their treasure then borrow more just for the shear joy of killing.
The US alone blew through four trillion $ and counting fighting lost causes in OIL states.

Prepare for serious oil shortages in latter 2016.

BobInget on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 7:24 pm

PS… I’m sticking with a January price prediction; $200. oil inter-day. $170 close December 31st 2015.

I’m guessing we will see $60 this month,
$78 in November.

Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 7:29 pm

why is this posted here?

Simple answer; ‘Merikans are stupid ass mother fuckers who believe most anything they are told. What else would explain the exceedingly retarded beliefs the majority of the ‘Merikan population believes. Trump is a living joke yet he’s the front runner for next POTUS. That says a lot about how uterly fucked up your shithole counrty is.

Land of the free? Indeed. Freedom Agenda? Hows that working out for ya?

The world doesn’t hate you because of your freedom. They hate you because you’re assholes.

https://www.aclu.org/feature/out-darkness?redirect=darkness

makati1 on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 7:55 pm

paulo1, we are almost at peak stupidity. There is little intelligence left anywhere. Not in colleges, not in business, not in finance and certainly not in government. If you are over 50, you retain what you might have gotten in your school days, before the system was dumbed down, and maybe some wisdom gained from living your life, but you are light years ahead of most of the college grads these days.

When I see a stupid headline, I always scroll down and look at it’s source. It is usually a government owned think tank or one of the big six media sources owned by our masters. Both put out misinformation to confuse and/or incite our sheeple peers. This is a prime example.

Davy on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:06 pm

Folks get out the rabies vaccinations No truth with liberal amounts of dumbass is ejaculating again on his Merika porn and Dog paw is barking he has a brain and others don’t. Both numb nuts are unfortunate examples of women who did not douche after dreary coitus.

Davy on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:11 pm

Bob, I will go off line for 2 week to honor such a ridiculous prediction if it were to happen in December. I am going to copy and paste to my notes your above prediction for future reference and a reminder to you of the folly of your cornucopian delusions.

Newfie on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:12 pm

Peak stupidity is a myth. We will never run out of stupidity.

apneaman on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:24 pm

Merikans are stupid ass mother fuckers? Wherever does such an idea come from?

Gay-Hating Church to Protest Clerk Who Denied Marriage Licenses to Gay Couples

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/Westboro-Baptist-Church-Protest-Kim-Davis–333380581.html

Lindsay Lohan: ‘In #2020 I may run for president’

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/lindsay-lohan-2020-i-may-run-president

Man Knocked Out by Hot Sauce in Fight Over Graham Crackers

http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Hot-Sauce-Graham-Crackers-331883891.html

Neighbors mistake body of murdered woman hanging from fence as Halloween decoration

http://fox8.com/2015/10/16/neighbors-mistake-body-of-murdered-woman-hanging-from-fence-as-halloween-decoration/

Davy on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:35 pm

When Canadians call Merikans pricks they forget they are dicks.

BobInget on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:40 pm

Thanks Davy. I trust you will eat just a little crow if I’m right. As will I, if wrong.

Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:45 pm

Leaders mirror the people, the President and all presidential candidates project the United States as a retarded nation to the rest of the world.

Take Ted Cruz for example. Born from a Castro-runaway Cuban father and Texan mother, Ted Cruz, also known as Felito Cruz, studied at Princeton University and Harvard Law School. Presumably an erudite fellow bred with cross-cultural discernment’s, Cruz, one hopes, would be subtle and scholarly in speech acts. Yet Cruz crudity is vivid. If Iran tried to acquire nuclear weapons, Ted Cruz tells to a receptive audience, “we may have to help introduce (Iranian Supreme leader Imam Ali Khamenei) to 72 virgins.”(This means that Cruz would kill the Iranian leader.) The crowd cheers even though Cruz ridicules Islam, a religion of fellow-Americans, and constructs a hypothetical to justify the language of violence in times of massacres at American schools and churches.

You Yanks are the sickest retarded fucks on the planet.

Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:48 pm

Other candidates are no less retarded. Examine a few. For example, Carly Fiorina would not talk to Vladimir Putin but employ the Sixth Fleet to speak daggers. Mike Huckabee champions Kim Davis for violating the law even though the U.S. Constitution mandates that the President “shall take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” Bobby Jindal, the son of Hindu forefathers, issues diatribes against Muslims, just as Hindu extremists rant against Muslims in India. Jeb Bush, a member of the American royal family that manufactures presidents, is a bit restrained in his rhetoric but even he cannot avoid being retarded. “Stuff happens,” says Bush to show concern over the death of nine persons by a shooter at an Oregon community college.

Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 17th Oct 2015 8:49 pm

Republican presidential candidates project the United States as a morally retarded nation where the language of violence is respected verbiage, where prestigious universities and colleges produce dumb bigots, where killing foreign leaders is openly advocated, where defaming other nations as exporters of rapists and drug addicts is normal, where picking on Islam is as delicious as apple pie, and where showing hard-ass-ness toward the working class is the high mark of analytical clarity. America is a political sewer pipe and it’s people deserve what they get.