Page added on September 28, 2006
The future oil price is, once again, in the hands of the cartel. If the oil producers want to sustain the oil price even at today’s level, they will have to cut their output sharply this winter. But they have to agree what price they wish to defend: $60 a barrel? $50? The problem for Opec is that many of its members have grown accustomed to the extraordinary revenue. Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and Nigeria cannot easily afford to cut output. Algeria and Libya may talk a lot about a cut, but do little. It will be left, chiefly, to Saudi Arabia. The question is whether the Saudis, given the economic and demographic strains inside the Kingdom, can afford a $50 million a day loss in income.
The Times
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