[dorlomin]

The International Grains Council is warning grain importing nations to check their stocks and brace for a halt in imports link.

Expected to be hit hardest by an import halt scenario are import dependent nations like Japan, said Estuo Kitahara, director general of the London-based IGC. The council observes grain trade and offers market information to 25 member countries and the European Union

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High transport cost because of high demand from China to ship its iron ore and coal export have added to the rise in grain prices. In the past 12 months wheat prices have more than doubled and peaked to over $9.60 a bushel on September 28.

How does that affect the cost of transporting grain? Coal and oar bulk carriers are a different type of ship to grain bulk carriers....

[dohboi]

Thanks DoubleD. Is glass ok?

[DoubleD]

You are welcome Dohboi. Glass is perfectly fine but you may have difficulty finding large enough containers and there is always the risk in an earthquake or shelf breakage... of the glass shattering and of course contaminating all of the grain in the process with glass shards. I use the food grade buckets as they are large and generally hold up to some abuse. They also stack very well. I keep mine on wood pallets which are on a concrete floor (the pallets keep the buckets from getting condensation from the cold cement floor).

[Ferretlover]

World events work against grain buyers
PORTLAND, Ore. — The Baker & Spice bakery paid $19 for a 50-pound bag of flour in August. By the end of September, co-owner Julie Richardson was staring at $27 a bag, reading startling messages from her supplier warning of dwindling world wheat stocks and wondering how long she could hold out before raising prices. ...
Bakery costs

[gg3]

Wheat isn't the only thing you can make bread etc. from.

There are other grains that are viable to grind down for baking. For example oats, rye, etc. I'm not an expert in the food/agriculture area, but folks here who are can provide more & better information on this.

[MrBean]

Judging by various reports and news snippets, the globe seems to have allready passed the Peak Food (global grain stocks falling down, falling down), at least demand-supply wise. Practically simultaneously with Peak Oil. Yeehaa!!! When will Peak Food demand destruction start really hitting?

Wife just back from Greece. 10-30% yearly "inflation" in basic groceries.

[IslandCrow]

Years ago the EU produced too much grain that lead to a classic 'grain mountain' (along with butter and wine 'lakes' etc). One response to this was to have farmers take land out of production. This autumn in response to the dropping world-wide grain storage, the EU has agreed to temporarily suspend this programme of having land out of production...so next year expect more land in the EU to be given over to wheat production.

The winter wheat in the field I can see from my window is a beautiful shade of green now, spring-like in the midst of all the yellows of the autumn leaves and the browns of dead grasses. I have only been here a couple of years, but in neither of the two previous years did the farmer use that field for winter wheat [ie planted in the autumn, but strong enough to survive the snows and frosts of winter]

[MrBean]

Yeah, the beloved CAP...

And let's not forget the biofuel idiocy, which is allready playing a big role.

[Tuike]

MrBean, you're back!

[Ferretlover]

Tyler: "Natural gas can't be transported across the ocean? "

How much of what fuel would be needed to extract the gas, ship it, unload it, then transport it to factory to make the fertilizer?

[Twilight]

Tyler: "Natural gas can't be transported across the ocean? "

How much of what fuel would be needed to extract the gas, ship it, unload it, then transport it to factory to make the fertilizer?

Not much.

The key is producing the fertilizer at source. The gas gets pumped out and is carried along a pipeline into a fertilizer plant after a bit of pre-processing. The result is packaged, trucked a few miles to a port, where it is loaded onto a cargo ship. Shipping is very energy efficient.

The gas-rich states will be feeding the world for some time to come, or at least those parts of it on which they will continue to be dependent on arms, security and heavy industrial equipment.

[Tyler_JC]

Tyler: "Natural gas can't be transported across the ocean? "

How much of what fuel would be needed to extract the gas, ship it, unload it, then transport it to factory to make the fertilizer?

Not much.

The key is producing the fertilizer at source. The gas gets pumped out and is carried along a pipeline into a fertilizer plant after a bit of pre-processing. The result is packaged, trucked a few miles to a port, where it is loaded onto a cargo ship. Shipping is very energy efficient.

The gas-rich states will be feeding the world for some time to come, or at least those parts of it on which they will continue to be dependent on arms, security and heavy industrial equipment.

Exactly.

Saudi Arabia is currently building the world's largest fertilizer factory, IIRC.

Qatar is also working towards developing its chemicals industry.

The Market trends towards efficiency.

[Alcassin]

Yeah, the beloved CAP...

And let's not forget the biofuel idiocy, which is allready playing a big role.

That's the cause - smaller crops, not fertilizer and stuff, but more and more land to fuel production.

In Poland we had the best crops of wheat ever! Prices went to the roof as the price in the European Market is high...

[FireJack]

Article on the australian drought: Australia's hard, dry season

"Mr. Ridley's farm is in the epicentre of devastation from the drought, about 500 kilometres west of Sydney. Prime wheat-growing territory, the district normally grows much of the wheat that makes Australia the world's second-biggest exporter. Yet this year the district will produce almost nothing."

[Narz]

According to "Limits to Growth (30 year update)" food production peaked in the 80's (IIRC) but according to this chart it has been going steadily upward with only a very recent sign of stagnation.

http://www.answers.com/topic/food-produ ... 1-2005-png



What's the dealie? Can the rest of the data from Limits to Growth be trusted?

[Tyler_JC]

According to "Limits to Growth (30 year update)" food production peaked in the 80's (IIRC) but according to this chart it has been going steadily upward with only a very recent sign of stagnation.

http://www.answers.com/topic/food-produ ... 1-2005-png



What's the dealie? Can the rest of the data from Limits to Growth be trusted?

Grain production per capita may have peaked in the 1980s, but not food production.



The big problem is that food production is crashing in Africa.

[Narz]

Hey thanks Tyler, looks like I just misremembered "grain" as "total food".

[Bas]

The big problem is that food production is crashing in Africa.

well, it crashed in the 70's and recovered starting in the mid 80's, but indeed it hasn't grown as fast as total world supply since then. And considering the population growth of Africa, the number of calories per capita must've gone down in that time frame.

[Ayame]

Grain Stock to Hit at 35-Year Low Next Year

Grain stocks worldwide are expected to fall to their lowest level in 35 years in 2008, raising concerns that the economy will be hit by a double whammy of soaring grain and oil prices.

Rising demand for grain commodities from China and other developing nations is driving up agriculture prices, but the problem we are having is that the world can't meet the surging demand due to a supply shortage,'' said Sung Myung-hwan, a senior researcher at the institute.

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