[ennui2]

In 50 years the only one still here will be PStarr who will be typing out that peak oil caused the 2008 credit crisis with the last bit of energy on his arthritic fingers.

[C8]

In 50 years we can all come back to this thread and have a few laughs.

The thing that sent oil prices down was fracking

but what if fracking removes most of the remaining oil? No new tech will save things b/c there isn't much more oil left to get- it could be the end of the road.

we have yet to see the transformation from FF- we are just finding new ways to play the old game. I would feel a little bit more confident if we could move toward a post FF transition- but I see little evidence of this happening. Meanwhile, the world population is increasing dramatically.

its ridiculous how dependent we still are on FF- we are still playing the same 100+ year old game

[marmico]

Ya, Hubbert is a real genius. Inman's book (The Oracle of Oil) says that Hubbert predicted (projected) estimated in 1938 that the U.S. would produce no oil in 1950. Hellava peak for those lead edge baby boomers born in '46.

[donstewart]

pstarr
I agree on the maintenance issue. I don't have any numbers. But what I see every day is lots and lots of guys in trucks going around fixing stuff. Many of them displaying some sort of franchise symbol. My sister used to head a 'parts and repair' operation for a major auto company. She said it was the only operation that actually made money.

Don Stewart

[marmico]

But what I see every day is lots and lots of guys in trucks going around fixing stuff.

Wow, Don Stewart is an anecdote. Don, hate to break it to you, but there are 325 million Americans making billions of economic decisions every day. Anecdote is not data. Going around fixing stuff is a rounding error.

________________________

Clarification: In 1938 Hubbert predicted peak oil in 1950.

[marmico]

After almost 23000 posts on peakoil.com, any sensible person would come to the conclusion that you are not well read. If I were you I would start with arithmetic on the ground floor and then move up to the psychiatric ward on the 7th floor.

For a second clarification, in 1938 Hubbert predicted peak oil in 1950 when the leading edge boomers were throwing off their diapers and getting prepared for kindergarten. Those '46 boomers made shit loads of money and now their kids and grandkids are just fine.

[donstewart]

Since I am in the anecdote business, I will add one more thought on what I think is missing from the ETP model and all the standard economics textbook models. I don’t think we have any very deep understanding of where GDP comes from.

I think we know how a small minority can make a lot of money. They have (or steal) some bright idea and figure out how to retail it to the public without doing much actual work. Facebook and Twitter and the like come to mind. They really aren’t doing much at all, physically. And they get very rich. Of course, the people who had the second best idea mostly make nothing at all, and their investors lose their money.

At the very opposite end of the spectrum, we have the Latin American immigrants who are digging with shovels in pits dug by excavators, working in the broiling sun. The Mexicans make nothing at all, but are doing something which is a sine qua non for our technological society. Facebook and Twitter could not exist without them.

When it comes to counting GDP, the profits of the nothing invested/ huge returns operations completely overshadow the illegals toiling in the heat and the mud. Having done both kinds of work, you will never convince me that the nothing invested/ huge returns guys are all that much smarter. Put them in the pit and they would probably electrocute themselves, or be crushed by some heavy machine.

Charles Hugh Smith, whom I admire, reminds us that economic value depends on two things: people want it and, it’s scarce. If we try to figure out how that might relate to uncoupling GDP from fossil fuels, it gets very murky. It is very clear that Facebook and Twitter and Google cannot exist without a whole bunch of guys wrestling physical infrastructure into place. But the income statements of Facebook and Twitter and Google never reflect the cost of that physical infrastructure.

Hillary Clinton gave a speech at some university today or yesterday. She promised all the college students ‘a job, and a job you want to do’. Sounds good….I just have no idea how she or anyone else can go about delivering on that promise. It’s sort of like promising that 'you will have fabulous children'…without the dirty diapers and 2am feedings….and they will never grow up to be teenagers.

So I hope others are as uncertain as I am about this ‘uncoupling’ business. For right now, my money is on the fossil fuels and the hard work.

Don Stewart

[AdamB]

Sum - "The Etp model has a very practical utility. It forecasts that oil prices will continue to decline." Great! Then tell me who is using it and how they are doing so. Are you using it to make investment decisions?

Yes. I have made a decision not to invest in oil. LOL.

You can always go "short on oil" (bet that oil prices will go down).

If someone had followed Steve Ludlum's advice back in 2012, he could have won a ton of cash.

SYG won't bet any more than Whats his name would. Or Starving Lion. They talk...or more like whine..but they certainly don't have the courage of their convictions, and they won't even bet easy things, like leaving here when they are proven wrong in various ways, for example when the oil price breaks the Etp line as whats his name was scared to death of, or Starving Lion of anyone proving that money really is worth something. Take a buck down to the corner store and see for yourself. So they react in an expected way, running away from anything that might require them being wrong. Because they already know they are just making stuff up. They are perfect peak oilers in that regard.

[SumYunGai]

Sum - "The Etp model has a very practical utility. It forecasts that oil prices will continue to decline." Great! Then tell me who is using it and how they are doing so. Are you using it to make investment decisions?

Yes. I have made a decision not to invest in oil. LOL.

You can always go "short on oil" (bet that oil prices will go down).

If someone had followed Steve Ludlum's advice back in 2012, he could have won a ton of cash.

SYG won't bet any more than Whats his name would. Or Starving Lion. They talk...or more like whine..but they certainly don't have the courage of their convictions, and they won't even bet easy things, like leaving here when they are proven wrong in various ways, for example when the oil price breaks the Etp line as whats his name was scared to death of, or Starving Lion of anyone proving that money really is worth something. Take a buck down to the corner store and see for yourself. So they react in an expected way, running away from anything that might require them being wrong. Because they already know they are just making stuff up. They are perfect peak oilers in that regard.

Okay, AdamB, enough of your trash talk. Time to put your money where your mouth is.

The oil price has not been close to breaking the Etp maximum oil price curve for the last 2 years. I have a great deal of confidence it never will. How much confidence do you have, AdamB? Let's make a bet, shall we? If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave. If the oil price fails to cross the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, you have to leave. Okay? Or are you afraid to make the bet?

[ennui2]

No money bets. The loser has to leave the forum and never come again.

[SumYunGai]

The loser has to leave the forum and never come again.

Sounds fine to me. But I seriously doubt that AdamB has the nerve to agree to the terms of the bet as outlined in my post above. You and I should make some sort of side bet on whether he balks.

[StarvingLion]

I would feel a little bit more confident if we could move toward a post FF transition- but I see little evidence of this happening.

Batteries capable of storing 24 hours of electricity generation in the United States come to $40.77 trillion dollars, covered 923 square miles, and weighed in at a husky 450 million tons.

In other words, a fantasy world.

Therefore, we are stuck with the incorrectly termed 'Shale' phenomenon. And what does the 'Shale' phenomenon do?

IT DESTROYS THE US CURRENCY AT ANYTHING LESS THAN REALISTIC PRICE OF OIL WHICH WOULD HAVE TO BE AT LEAST 3X ITS CURRENT PRICE

So how do they prevent imminent US currency collapse? The rollover of sovereign debt into SDR substitution accounts

At some point in the very near future, the Saudi's will react to this devalued US Shale Oil Currency (US Dollar) and realize its worthless poo and begin selling its own oil priced in Yuan. Americans will be loosing access to ME oil and domestic oil as their currency is being devalued to get shale out of the ground. The price in the US is then going to skyrocket.

[AdamB]

No money bets. The loser has to leave the forum and never come again.

SumYunGirl is pretending he doesn't remember the bet he tucked tail and ran from when he was whats his name. Her name? Who knows...the ETP salesmen.

[AdamB]

The loser has to leave the forum and never come again.

Sounds fine to me. But I seriously doubt that AdamB has the nerve to agree to the terms of the bet as outlined in my post above. You and I should make some sort of side bet on whether he balks.

So you avoided the bet the last time I offered it, and now in your sock puppet guise have finally come around? Cool! So why did you run from the courage of your lame convictions the last time?

[ennui2]

No money bets. The loser has to leave the forum and never come again.

SumYunGirl is pretending he doesn't remember the bet he tucked tail and ran from when he was whats his name. Her name? Who knows...the ETP salesmen.

Again, he was banned. He didn't run away. He should not be here because he created a new username to circumvent the ban.

He's even admitted to this, shockingly, while having the gall to call OTHER people trolls.

If he keeps going like this he might just get banned again before he's forced to quit by losing the bet.

[AdamB]

The oil price has not been close to breaking the Etp maximum oil price curve for the last 2 years. I have a great deal of confidence it never will. How much confidence do you have, AdamB?

So you have the memory of a goldfish, forgetting what I told you last time your salesmen sock puppet asked that question?

If the price gets low enough to meet my stated conditions for proof of "how low can it go", I will leave the forum and not come back. If it breaks the upper bounds on your cheesy graph, you leave.

This was all quite simple and laid out the last time...why did you run away? Needed a change of avatar to get some lead in your pencil?

Let's make a bet, shall we? If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave. If the oil price fails to cross the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, you have to leave. Okay? Or are you afraid to make the bet?

There is no need for a time frame. Your claim in the curve is absolute, and can only lead to one place...fuel being so cheap it begins to substitute for other BTUs. So if this happens, I lose. If it breaks the upper bound as time goes forward, you do.

Short term predicting isn't what peak oil is, it isn't what collapse is, it is just a way that you can hope there are no changes in current market conditions, which is a perfectly reasonable bet. I'm talking about the underlying fundamentals of the Etp, which has none, and therefore is guaranteed to fail because of it. Just like bell shaped curves did. Just like claims of peak oil in 1989 did. Just like claims of running out before the end of the 80's did.

You see, the Etp is a crock, just like the bell shaped curve, and all I need to do is wait to win. So either your curve is predictive and arrives where it becomes obvious to everyone, or it exceeds the bounds you claim, breaking the "oil will never go up in price again!" theme.

Now go back and reread me saying the same thing last time so I don't have to repeat myself a third time as you try and wriggle back under your rock, having been caught out in the light of day after having fled the site for being such a sales buffoon last time.

[AdamB]

No money bets. The loser has to leave the forum and never come again.

SumYunGirl is pretending he doesn't remember the bet he tucked tail and ran from when he was whats his name. Her name? Who knows...the ETP salesmen.

Again, he was banned. He didn't run away. /quote]

I dunno. Seemed to me like his departure was perfectly timed with his exposure as a salesman and intellectual fraud. While SumYunGai seems to track on the intellectual fraud level, he hasn't revealed his true hand as a traveling sales sock puppet for the Hill Group quite yet.