[dark-suzie]

What if Peak Oil never happens?

I really wouldnt be all that suprized. Tottaly possible. But peak oil gives me an excuse to promote alot of life style adjustments for my self.
Call it an excuse to give up on the cult of modern man.

[Cerryl]

We've got the entire solar system to expand into, and then the rest of the universe.

That's an interesting idea for solving our problems. I must say that you are certainly not the first one to have thought of it though. You should really check out this link for an in depth exploration of that solution, there are lot of ideas in there that relate to the issue of exponential growth and humanity's unlimited capacity for denial. Quite ahead of it's time for a piece written back in the 50's.



The Last Question

While the ending of the story is very.... different, I personally wouldn't count on anything like that to save our behinds!

[savethehumans]

This is a win-win situation.

If P.O. never happened, and you still learned all these basic skills and did all this preparation, you're saying all of it would be USELESS?!

Somehow, I think it would make your life better! Sure wouldn't need to work for The Man to make a solid living. And most of this junk we HAVE to have--well, no, we don't. (Though, yes, giving up this computer would be WAY hard!)

Think many of us will just keep preparing, OK?

[seldom_seen]

We've got the entire solar system to expand into, and then the rest of the universe.

Garrett Hardin, who penned the ecological/economic theory of the "Tragedy of the Commons"...wrote a great piece dismissing escape to the stars based on the premise that in a spaceship resources would be even more critical and limited than they are here on Earth.

Going on to point out that we have been unable to control our resources and population growth here on Earth...we would be even less successful in the escapist fantasy of interstellar space travel and colonization.

[johnmarkos]

What if a more efficient technology allows the extraction of oil in all the quantities we need, and while this is happening, a new technology is invented to replace oil as an energy source, so by the time oil starts to fade away, we are already covered? How would all the PeakOilers on here react? Would you be like that chick on Saturday Night Live, played by Gilda Radner, who would say "Never miiiiiiiind" whenever she was shown to be wrong?

No, we'd be like, "Oh cool, now we don't have to worry about that pesky peak oil problem," and jump for joy. Then we'd have to get to work on the global climate change problem and the fresh water problem and the degrading topsoil problem, among other problems.

[Keith_McClary]

What if a more efficient technology allows the extraction of oil in all the quantities we need, and while this is happening, a new technology is invented to replace oil as an energy source, so by the time oil starts to fade away, we are already covered? How would all the PeakOilers on here react? Would you be like that chick on Saturday Night Live, played by Gilda Radner, who would say "Never miiiiiiiind" whenever she was shown to be wrong?

I have responded politely to posts like this before but I have run out of politeness. You do not have a clue about science and technology. What if someone invented a perpetual motion machine? What if little green men from space give us infinite energy boxes. Zero point energy. The tooth fairy. Santa Claus.

Get real.It isn't going to happen. Learn some high school physics and chemistry.

[RobintheDruid]

PeakKYjelly, you're dreaming aren't you? I bet you're one of those people who don't want it to happen, along with other eco-problems, just so you can carry on with a rich lifestyle, buying more clothes on Saturdays, going out to nightclubs and rich restaurants, buying a faster and flasher car, just so you can carry on consuming and hang those who can't keep up.

Well if you're not, I apologise and address those comments to those who are and may be reading this.

One way or another, the system has to fall, I mean how much is enough? How long do we have to keep on being stressed out trying to keep up with a system which is urging us onwards to the point of nervous breakdown? How much longer does the planet have to cope with the effects of our abuse, and what about the 2/3 of the planet who have problems who are much less well-off than we are, who have problems finding enough food and water, whose shelter is trashed by city authorities because its offensive to rich western tourists?

Just get real! First, the logic and the science, if you look at this, (in other words 'common sense') tells us that at some point we always were going to reach this point in history, and that we have now reached that point. Second, because of the situation I've just described, THE SYSTEM HAS TO FALL it just cannot go on like this, the way we lead our lives is mad and destructive, and nature will only tolerate this for so long.

Stop dreaming and accept PO for what it is and why its happening and adjust, prepare and get used to the new reality.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

"We can expand into space."

Um, I'm sorry to break this to you Captain Kirk but space isn't as inviting as you seem to think it is, it's cold, desolate and useless. There's a reason you were born on the Earth, and "leaving" it is a pretty stupid notion.

[Pops]

Obviously the question is more about Peak Oil’ers than Peak Oil as Nero pointed out.

There will of course be a peak in production at some point if oil is truly finite, beyond that all is speculation, some credible, some incredible.

As to what other PO’ers would do if it didn’t have much impact, I don’t have any idea. Personally, I try to prepare for as many outcomes as I can – even the good ones.

[RobintheDruid]

Well if the question is more about Peak Oilers than Peak Oil, I suggest that we all learn from the discussion thats taking place already and go to doing sustainable community with organic veg plot anyway. Besides, its not just PO is it? After that theres global warming, ozone depletion, water depletion, pollution, avian flu, terrorism - I mean take your pick!

[Ryan]

It wouldn't change much for me. I don't consider myself a 'Peak Oil’er' having only really become aware of the issue recently. Long before reading about Peak Oil I had already chosen not to buy a car, to start moving away from a consumer lifestyle to something more sustainable. I'm still working on that. Learning about Peak Oil has made me feel increased urgency for getting things done because I do think things are going to start slipping down that slope. I'm not convinced it's going to be an easy smooth 2-3% decrease each year either. Probably more like an avalanche. I'm just trying to get out of the way if I can.

So, to answer the original post, if it doesn't happen (soon, I don't believe never) then I'll have a chance to do the things I was going to do anyway.

[JoeW]

Since we live on a finite planet, the answer is obviously that something else would peak. Water, space, food, whatever.

I would really like it if I were proven wrong, it would make me more relaxed and confident in my future.

Maybe this will make you feel better. Solving the energy problem solves any potential water problems. Remember that water is not "used up" the way that fossil fuels are. 3/4 of the planet is covered in water. It takes energy to make that water potable and bring it to the masses. Solve the energy problem, and there is no need for anyone to go without water.

And as far as space is concerned, we have a lot of room to grow if we solve the energy problem. We have two largely unpopulated polar regions. Plus, I have driven through Nebraska and Iowa. Living space is not going to be a problem.

Food could be a problem, even if the energy deal gets figured out. But right now, most of us reading this could probably stand to miss a couple meals. So let's not worry about that and just focus on the problem at hand--PEAK OIL!

[Keith_McClary]

Solving the energy problem solves any potential water problems.
...
And as far as space is concerned, we have a lot of room to grow if we solve the energy problem.

What do you mean by "solve the energy problem"? Scientists have known for decades what the possible energy sources are: oil/gas/coal, fission, fusion, tidal, wind, geothermal, biomass, solar.
Barring a fundamental scientific "breakthrough" (these don't happen very often, few scientists are expecting it) these are all we have to work with.

All of the alternatives to oil&gas will be much more expensive and will take a long time to "ramp up" to satisfy current global consumption increases of 2-3%/year.

[OilyMon]

Peak Oil is only the most urgent part of the problem with the most easily realizable affects on the economy. Many people consider that peaking oil and less use of oil is a good thing in the long run because of the effect fossil fuel emissions are having on the climate and atmosphere on which we depend for life. Al Bartlett's video is also a good critique of modern society and the direction it is taking, although I've heard population is actually decreasing from some other scientists (Nobel Prize for nano-tech? Columbia University - Who is he...?) so exponential population growth doesn't seem to be a global problem (although it may be locally).

I think the most urgent problem is civilization complexity, and the possibilities for growth that exist. It's like trying to speed something up to the speed of light. It's relatively easy to get an object moving at a slow speed, but as you approach the speed of light the amount of energy it requires to increase the speed of the object by 1 unit increases exponentially. Our society is the object and the speed is forward progress as defined by our contemporary society.

The rate of growth of anything reaches a maximum, and then declines, either stopping when the growth rate once again reaches zero, or continues to decline becoming negative. There's no such thing as an infinite society.

A good way to illustrate societal complexity is Einstein's general relativity. Who is going to improve on that? Maybe I can't see an improvement because I'm not willing to do the work required to understand what Einstein did 100 years ago. Most people are not willing either. In fact, if you want to fully understand Einsteins work, you would be the first to accomplish the task beside of course Einstein! People spend their lives digesting General Relativity and exploring the framework that it has laid out. If we cannot even come to terms with knowledge that has existed for 100 years, how are we ever going to improve upon it? Have we reached a peak intellectually? Potentially? What are other ideas that follow a similar pattern?

Fundamentally, in order to get a return on the investment made by the society in, say, a physicist, more resources must be invested, and less can be expected from said physicist. Therefore, the return diminishes, as complexity increases and we can only expect to be able to generate more social returns as long as ALL of our resources remain limitless because if they aren't, there comes a time when the return is less than the investment.

[Omnitir]

As has already been pointed out – the question is a hypothetical “what if”, not an opinion on what is definitely going to happen. So ease up people! Some people here seem so insecure, so extreme in their beliefs, that they are incapable of even contemplating any alternative theory to their own beliefs. Open your mind a bit guys, it will serve you well post peak.

The question posed in this thread is:

What if the effects of peak oil aren’t as devastating as many envision, and somehow the developed world as we know it continues?

I think if we found a way to get over our oil addiction but continue on the capitalist path (because of some viable alternative to fossil fuels), we would eventually solve most of the problems we are facing. I think given a plentiful energy source, technological development would continue to grow at an exponential rate, meaning we could overcome many of the problems we now face.

For one thing, because oil would no longer be a problem, the political landscape would dramatically change, and possibly many war torn countries would get a chance at prosperity.

Assuming the new hypothetical technology is low-pollutant, the wide-scale change to the new tech would greatly improve the planets pollution problems, and probably reduce the damage of global warming.

I think if we had this cheap and clean energy and continued to grow and develop technologically, we would indeed expand into space. This is quite a realistic outcome of continued cheap and plentiful energy, as space has much potential (contrary to previous close-minded opinions posted in this thread). We already know we can live is space, and have done so for years, so with continued cheap energy, the process would reach it’s inevitable conclusion of permanent space homes. This really isn’t that improbable, and with continued cheap energy would be a reality in a few short decades.

Most of all, I think if some solution presented itself to the problems associated with the end of cheap oil, most people would be extremely happy. Yes we were wrong, but so what? Now humanity gets to prosper and continue to struggle for a better world. Though of course some of the more extreme peak oil people would be very angry that they missed out on their shoot to kill Mad Max world followed by endless post-industrial stone-age living. But who really cares what the extremists think?

Unfortunately I don’t think there will be any physics defying technology developed in time to save us from our oil addiction. But I enjoyed contemplating what it would be like.

Oh, and to all those who think the idea of humans expanding into space is ridiculous and science fiction: open your eyes, we have been expanding into space quite successfully for over half a century, and have made significant achievements. Or do you believe that that was all a hoax?

[RobintheDruid]

Omnitir. Extremists? Hang on a minute, the scenario you suggest seems to ignore the driving principle of capitalism, that is greed and the burning desire of the rich and powerful to enslave the less powerful and pinch as much stuff as they can from them. You really think that by finding some alternative energy source and thereby keeping capitalism alive you're going to create a better world?

Dream on. Its capitalism thats destroying the world, full stop. Capitalism is like a cancer that has to be cut out, or a parasite that has to be killed off. This whole topic seems to be the preserve of those who don't really want to sacrifice their cosy lifestyles with piles of consumer crap. Its a nonsense that capitalism should be kept alive. Anyway, look at the word - capital-ism, that is a system that is biased in favour of those who have 'capital' i.e. shit loads of money, leaving those who don't scrabbling for scraps at the masters table.

And as for space exploration, what a load of tosh. The only way we've got our piles of junk into orbit is to blast them up there with tons of rocket fuel. Where do you think thats going to come from post-PO? Or are we going to find some secret ingredient presently lost in some South American rainforest somewhere?

And anyway, what gives us the right to colonise space anyway, just because we assume that its just a load of empty space. Thats the same logic as white settlers occupying the Little Big Horn Valley just because its a big space and they assume there's no indians wandering around out there, and look what happened to Custer?

Arrogant sod got what he deserved anyway!
______________________________________________
"If you cut me down Darth I'll become more powerful than you can possibly imagine"

[MicroHydro]

"Its capitalism thats destroying the world, full stop."

So Easter Island, the classic Mayans, the Anasazi, and North Korea were capitalist?

People are destroying the world, full stop.

[sjn]

And anyway, what gives us the right to colonise space anyway, just because we assume that its just a load of empty space. Thats the same logic as white settlers occupying the Little Big Horn Valley just because its a big space and they assume there's no indians wandering around out there, and look what happened to Custer?

Arrogant sod got what he deserved anyway!

I don't really think it's fair to compare the genocide of the native North Americans to the possiblility of space colonisation. We don't know that there is *any* other life out there, and we certainly won't know unless we go out there and look. My feeling we have a responsiblity to spread "Earthlife" out into the solar system because we can. If Gaia had a plan (which I'm pretty certain it doesn't, but anyway), she evolved us for this very purpose. It isn't without precident either, for example the first incursions onto land from the sea, opened up opportunities for others to follow - and if they hadn't we wouldn't be here today.

[Omnitir]

When I talk about peak oil extremists, I’m talking about those that act like the Mad Max scenario will lead to a better world. Basically people who believe we will suffer a very hard crash, and act like it will be a good thing.

My point in my earlier post was that if some theoretical technological development saved us from the problems of P.O., then given continued cheap and abundant energy we would continue to progress at faster rates, which would eventually solve all of the problems that everyone is so worried about.

Sure capitalism is a parasitic burden on the world, but given free energy, I believe it would get to a point where the world would be a much better place for everyone. It’s certainly improved the quality of life for many people over the past century, regardless of how much they hate waiting in queues and sitting in traffic. And with free energy, it would continue to improve many lives.

As for space exploration, in the scenario of some free energy existing post peak oil, there would be plenty of rocket fuel left for at least the next few decades (because we won’t be burning oil for mass transport). And as I pointed out, with continued free energy input, science will continue to advance and solve many problems. Colonising space would be just a matter of time in a world of continued cheap energy.

“What gives us the right to send life into space?”
What gives us the right not to try? That would be the greatest crime off all. If we are the only intelligent life around here (which looks like the case) then we have a duty to spread life as far as possible. To let that unique flame go out would be the most heinous act of humanity.


Of course we are no longer given plentiful cheap energy, so the point is mute; we must power down our dreams and ambitions and lead a more simple life in the future. We don’t have a choice about it anymore.