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What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 16:34:41

Sovereign nations cannot claim bankruptcy. They can only default on their debt. As the debt is in US dollars there is no reason to default. They will simply take out a notice in the local newspaper that creditors should form a line in front of the Fed to be repaid in (next to) worthless paper. Kind of like a parade, but less fanfare. No refreshments will be served. Pax Americana ends.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby Byron100 » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 18:11:00

MrBill wrote:Sovereign nations cannot claim bankruptcy. They can only default on their debt. As the debt is in US dollars there is no reason to default. They will simply take out a notice in the local newspaper that creditors should form a line in front of the Fed to be repaid in (next to) worthless paper. Kind of like a parade, but less fanfare. No refreshments will be served. Pax Americana ends.


And what happens then?

Will the US revert back to a bucolic, provincial nation of small villages with people enjoying a low-consumption lifestyle? Or will America adopt the persona of a wounded bear, lashing out in global war? Or does everything just stop, going Mad Max approximately 30 days later?

Inquiring minds wanna know...
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 18:17:36

Byron100 wrote:
MrBill wrote:Sovereign nations cannot claim bankruptcy. They can only default on their debt. As the debt is in US dollars there is no reason to default. They will simply take out a notice in the local newspaper that creditors should form a line in front of the Fed to be repaid in (next to) worthless paper. Kind of like a parade, but less fanfare. No refreshments will be served. Pax Americana ends.


And what happens then?

Will the US revert back to a bucolic, provincial nation of small villages with people enjoying a low-consumption lifestyle? Or will America adopt the persona of a wounded bear, lashing out in global war? Or does everything just stop, going Mad Max approximately 30 days later?

Inquiring minds wanna know...


Peak Oil + American Default = A Poorer World

Wipe $10-11 trillion in accrued savings off, plus deleveraging, plus write-off at $14 trillion economy, and there will be a lot less wealth. Post peak oil resource depletion should ensure that the world economy only recovers at a much lower level of economic activity. A few winners. Many more losers. Lower living standards for almost all. Be careful what you wish for.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 19:07:08

MrBill wrote:Peak Oil + American Default = A Poorer World

Wipe $10-11 trillion in accrued savings off, plus deleveraging, plus write-off at $14 trillion economy, and there will be a lot less wealth. Post peak oil resource depletion should ensure that the world economy only recovers at a much lower level of economic activity. A few winners. Many more losers. Lower living standards for almost all. Be careful what you wish for.


Materialistic consumerism is poor attempt to fill the void left empty by other ("higher") unsatisfied needs. Need for a beneficial place in a community, need for love, to love and be loved, need for self-expression, need for spiritual peace. All the polls show that "poor" Nigerians are more happy than "rich" Americans. Be carefull to wish for the right things.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 19:13:16

MrBean wrote:
Materialistic consumerism is poor attempt to fill the void left empty by other ("higher") unsatisfied needs. Need for a beneficial place in a community, need for love, to love and be loved, need for self-expression, need for spiritual peace. All the polls show that "poor" Nigerians are more happy than "rich" Americans. Be carefull to wish for the right things.


+1

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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby spot5050 » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 19:34:37

virgincrude wrote:We all know the US is a technically bankrupt nation.

No we don't. US assets are worth more than it's liabilities, so it is not backrupt.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby Snowrunner » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 00:19:53

spot5050 wrote:
virgincrude wrote:We all know the US is a technically bankrupt nation.

No we don't. US assets are worth more than it's liabilities, so it is not backrupt.


In a firesale the buyer decides the price something is worth not the seller.

Of course if you can "hold out" then you may have a point, but do you think the US can hold out?
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby bodigami » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 01:11:04

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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby bodigami » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 01:14:53

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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby timmac » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 01:26:06

Anagami,, Why all the stupid ass clown postings that you keep doing that no one is reading,, Really No One..
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 03:40:35

MrBean wrote:
MrBill wrote:Peak Oil + American Default = A Poorer World

Wipe $10-11 trillion in accrued savings off, plus deleveraging, plus write-off at $14 trillion economy, and there will be a lot less wealth. Post peak oil resource depletion should ensure that the world economy only recovers at a much lower level of economic activity. A few winners. Many more losers. Lower living standards for almost all. Be careful what you wish for.


Materialistic consumerism is poor attempt to fill the void left empty by other ("higher") unsatisfied needs. Need for a beneficial place in a community, need for love, to love and be loved, need for self-expression, need for spiritual peace. All the polls show that "poor" Nigerians are more happy than "rich" Americans. Be carefull to wish for the right things.


You say that. And you may be right. But when it comes to wealth distribution via taxes or expropriation or however it always comes down to monetary wealth. You express all these deeper human values, but it is not my soul that the socialists want, but my money. It is so hypocritical that it isn't even funny.

No one cares how hard you work. How many years you went to school. How many risks you took. What sacrafices you made. Or if you lost money. Nobody cuts you a cheque then. But as soon as you earn a little over the course of twenty years or a life-time then everyone has their hand out for a piece of that wealth because it is obviously unearned and a product of greed. Its all ants and grasshoppers. You're all simply blood sucking parasites. I do not want your labor. It is not worth anything to me. There is not an original thought amoung the lot of you.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 03:52:21

MrBill wrote:
MrBean wrote:
MrBill wrote:Peak Oil + American Default = A Poorer World

Wipe $10-11 trillion in accrued savings off, plus deleveraging, plus write-off at $14 trillion economy, and there will be a lot less wealth. Post peak oil resource depletion should ensure that the world economy only recovers at a much lower level of economic activity. A few winners. Many more losers. Lower living standards for almost all. Be careful what you wish for.


Materialistic consumerism is poor attempt to fill the void left empty by other ("higher") unsatisfied needs. Need for a beneficial place in a community, need for love, to love and be loved, need for self-expression, need for spiritual peace. All the polls show that "poor" Nigerians are more happy than "rich" Americans. Be carefull to wish for the right things.


You say that. And you may be right. But when it comes to wealth distribution via taxes or expropriation or however it always comes down to monetary wealth. You express all these deeper human values, but it is not my soul that the socialists want, but my money. It is so hypocritical that it isn't even funny.


False framing. I'm not a socialist, even though there is no denying that a world socialist governement could have a fair chance in delivering a soft landing - by distributing deepening scarcity more evenly.

What I'm for are self-reliant sustainable small communities that live their life as they see fit and bother nobody else. So you can stuff your "they are coming to take my money away haha heehee hoho" possessed lunacies where the sun don't shine.

No one cares how hard you work. How many years you went to school. How many risks you took. What sacrafices you made. Or if you lost money. Nobody cuts you a cheque then. But as soon as you earn a little over the course of twenty years or a life-time then everyone has their hand out for a piece of that wealth because it is obviously unearned and a product of greed. Its all ants and grasshoppers. You're all simply blood sucking parasites. I do not want your labor. It is not worth anything to me. There is not an original thought amoung the lot of you.


Who are you talking to? The boogieman under your bed?

PS: Self-pity suits you Sir. Suits you Sir.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 04:01:02

I just love how all the socialists around here run around claiming they are not socialists. They just want to confiscate private property and the means of production. Tax wealth out of existance. And run a command and control economy that does not rely on the market to either price goods and services or allocate production.

If you want to live in a small, self-reliant community then do it. Under a social-democratic market economy you have near complete freedom to do whatever you want with your time and labor. Including giving your wealth away to your neighbors and working for free because it gives you a warm fuzzy feeling. Become a Mennonite if you want. But the reality is you're just a hypocrit. You talk about higher values, but you do not practice them. A blood sucking parasite that runs around complaining that someone is exploiting you.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 05:23:10

MrBill wrote:I just love how all the socialists around here run around claiming they are not socialists.


Love is good! :)

They just want to confiscate private property and the means of production. Tax wealth out of existance. And run a command and control economy that does not rely on the market to either price goods and services or allocate production.

If you want to live in a small, self-reliant community then do it. Under a social-democratic market economy you have near complete freedom to do whatever you want with your time and labor. Including giving your wealth away to your neighbors and working for free because it gives you a warm fuzzy feeling. Become a Mennonite if you want. But the reality is you're just a hypocrit. You talk about higher values, but you do not practice them. A blood sucking parasite that runs around complaining that someone is exploiting you.


Thou projects too much. :)

Very well, if you say so, but please not that personal attacks are waste of time since there is no person here, at least in the sense that you are accustomed to react and project.

"Blood sucking parasites" is one way to describe this system of globalized totalitarian integration and interdependence where each of us is forced to be a blood sucking parasite of everybody else. And most of all, non-renewable slowly accumulated energy capital of this Earth. So all of us blood sucking parasites have common problems, most urgently the difficult path to sustainability.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 05:28:19

I agree that personal attacks are counterproductive to the issues at hand. However, I have borne my fair share of personal attacks, so sometimes it is human to want to give it back. Other than that I see no other common ground on which we can agree about anything.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby pogoliamo » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 05:35:13

MrBean wrote:Materialistic consumerism is poor attempt to fill the void left empty by other ("higher") unsatisfied needs. Need for a beneficial place in a community, need for love, to love and be loved, need for self-expression, need for spiritual peace. All the polls show that "poor" Nigerians are more happy than "rich" Americans. Be carefull to wish for the right things.


The utterest of all illusions is that some new kind of social order may turn a unhappy individual (stupid loser) into a loving, wonderful being with a high purpose in his life.

I don't care much about the polls. If you believe that Nigerians are happier then Americans - make yourself happy
GO TO NIGERIA Unfortunately you are a lying hypocrite - you'll never do.

The US will not default on its debt. If will simply print what needs.

Vladimir Lenin - The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.

So after the US prints all money to repay its debt the dollar will be toast. Comrade Lenin would celebrate this day - the responsible and hardworking people will pay the price of that reckless era. Left with next to nothing they will put all their hopes in the socialism. After the US citizens lose all their liberties and freedoms all world countries and economies will follow the same fate.

Then even Nigerians will happen to be less unhappy than Americans (and us).
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 06:01:47

MrBill wrote:[ There is not an original thought amoung the lot of you.


Truely original thoughts are indeed rare, especially when talking over such a well worn subject as money. Don't forget to include yourself in the lot you mention.

As to a socialist utopia being the answer to a finacial collapse forgedaboutit. The old Polish joke from Gadansk* says it all. "They pretend to pay us ...We pretend to work." Even with dictatorial power and plenty of oil the greatest socialist experiment could not keep food on the shelves. Throw in the reduction of oil supplies or finacial collapse or global climate change (so many ways to starve)and a socialist system will collapse with the first bad harvest.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 06:19:33

pogoliamo wrote:The utterest of all illusions is that some new kind of social order may turn a unhappy individual (stupid loser) into a loving, wonderful being with a high purpose in his life.


Whatever. Any case, this social order is conditioning humans into selfish, unhappy, deeply unsatisfied and alienated individuals and consumers, reacting more like machines than real human beings. :)

I don't care much about the polls. If you believe that Nigerians are happier then Americans - make yourself happy
GO TO NIGERIA Unfortunately you are a lying hypocrite - you'll never do.


You are right, I never will. Nigeria for Nigerians, I'll stick to my roots, grow them deeper. I'm content.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby galacticsurfer » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 07:56:55

Considering this in karmic perspective...

In a collapse, war or similar individual hard work or righteousness or whatever might count for little. Larger picture takes over, what one might call collective fate. Like in the boat sinking or the nuked Hiroshima or the Holocaust. Personal blame or whatever can hardly be affixed. Something bigger is at work here. So we have personal karma which says everything you ever did will be accounted for exactly and collective karma is the bigger picture, maybe everyone gets killed and then your profit and hard work or your kindness to the neighbour or your heavy debts or crimes or whatever are all forgotten. Slate is wiped clean. if you are in the wrong place at the wrong time then you pay part of the price of the collective Karma of that population, say massive die-off due to massive overshoot in the population or in energy use. So we should not take fate personally but rather have a bitter sense of humour. Justice can be collective and God works at different levels. "how did I deserve this?" will be the wrong question. One will have to ask if the whole game is wrong humanity is playing at and as we are part of that human game then we owe part of the karmic debt with our lives perhaps.
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Re: What Happens When US Officially Defaults?

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 29 Oct 2008, 08:25:40

galacticsurfer wrote:Considering this in karmic perspective...

In a collapse, war or similar individual hard work or righteousness or whatever might count for little. Larger picture takes over, what one might call collective fate. Like in the boat sinking or the nuked Hiroshima or the Holocaust. Personal blame or whatever can hardly be affixed. Something bigger is at work here. So we have personal karma which says everything you ever did will be accounted for exactly and collective karma is the bigger picture, maybe everyone gets killed and then your profit and hard work or your kindness to the neighbour or your heavy debts or crimes or whatever are all forgotten. Slate is wiped clean. if you are in the wrong place at the wrong time then you pay part of the price of the collective Karma of that population, say massive die-off due to massive overshoot in the population or in energy use. So we should not take fate personally but rather have a bitter sense of humour. Justice can be collective and God works at different levels. "how did I deserve this?" will be the wrong question. One will have to ask if the whole game is wrong humanity is playing at and as we are part of that human game then we owe part of the karmic debt with our lives perhaps.


Good reminder, GS. This not about survival, not a game of survival. Life is not a game - though it is play. This is about life, starting to live.
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