[maverickdoc]

The paradox of conservation, you conserve some else takes your place. Say you wake up and become super efficient, save $900 per month on your utility bills. Being the rational person you are, you deposit it into the bank, the bank turns around and lends it someone else who starts a business and uses your money to pay for utilities.
(capitalism at its best)

Say Bush decrees that country must conserve or else you will be sent to gitmo.
US instead of using 22 million barrels of oil a day uses 5 (fantasy I know). Price of Oil falls (or the price does not fall), and China just pick up the slack. (Tragedy of the commons)

If you say conservation will make the plateau at the top of the curve longer and we that will buy us more time. Yes, we will develop better drilling and extraction technology, and suck the oil out quicker and cheaper. Which will only make the eventual fall from the top steeper. And harder since more people will be using the resources, al be it less per capita, but more reliance.

The other way is to steal the oil, that too is doomed to failure because it only helps to keep the illusion that every think is a OK. So go on buying your SUV and driving 50 miles to the mall. Problem is oil is peaking so no matter how many countries the US occupies, eventually it will time to pay the piper. And if by some means bush can hold the price of oil down, pumping the hell out of Iraq, or menacing Venezuela, or taking over Iran or market price controls. Like the conservation paradox, the downward slope will only be steeper.

Like I said liberal think we can conserve our way out of this we most certainly cannot! The Conservatives think we can steal out way out of this we most certainly cannot!

[Ludi]

I agree. As long as we have a culture of consumption and growth, we will consume and grow.

[Chuckmak]

this is very unfortunate, but true.

[Jack]

So, what options remain?

1) Innovation - which may or may not magically solve everything.

2) Massive dieoff

Since the chance of an invention solving the problem before things get tight seems small, it appears that we're looking at a dieoff of 4 billion people or so, starting in the next decade or so.

Or is that not the case?

[Ludi]

So, what options remain? 1) Innovation - which may or may not magically solve everything. 2) Massive dieoff

3. Change the culture. (not saying there's time to do that before a dieoff, just that it's another option)

[NeoPeasant]

The paradox of conservation, you conserve some else takes your place. Say you wake up and become super efficient, save $900 per month on your utility bills. Being the rational person you are, you deposit it into the bank, the bank turns around and lends it someone else who starts a business and uses your money to pay for utilities.
(capitalism at it’s best)

Being the rational person that I am, I realize I can now meet my needs with $900 a month less, so I only work 4 days a week, or I send $900 a month extra to the mortgage company, resulting in a home paid off ten years early. I retire and start doing relocalization/self-sufficiency related volunteer work in my community.

[maverickdoc]

Being the rational person that I am, I realize I can now meet my needs with $900 a month less, so I only work 4 days a week, or I send $900 a month extra to the mortgage company, resulting in a home paid off ten years early. I retire and start doing relocalization/self-sufficiency related volunteer work in my community.

NeoPeasant, what do you think the bank will do with the extra $900 you send back to them? Lend it to some one to start the cycle all over again. You as a person might be Marginally better off but as a society it will not help

[rerere]

Like I said liberal think we can conserve our way out of this we most certainly cannot!

Actually, yes we will 'conserve' out way out as there won't be a choice.
Along the way to 'powerdown', the growth based economy will tank, tax revenue will tank, and the country goes bankrupt.

The Conservatives think we can steal out way out of this we most certainly cannot!

And the 'conservative' view ignores the history of wars. Ya see, the history of wars = bankrupt countries. So the war route leads to bankruptcy sooner, then during powerdown the inability of the government to spend money will lead to more misery.

[cube]

Americans have already made their choice and they have chossen WAR.

While public opinions polls clearly show that "enthuisiam" for "exporting democracy by the tip of a cruise missile" has clearly waned...it hasn't gotten to the point yet that Americans are willing to pull out "Vietnam style".

[aahala]

The paradox of conservation, you conserve some else takes your place. Say you wake up and become super efficient, save $900 per month on your utility bills. Being the rational person you are, you deposit it into the bank, the bank turns around and lends it someone else who starts a business and uses your money to pay for utilities. (capitalism at its best)

If the $900 is in your checking account, if you write a check, your account is debited and the ultilties is credited. The lending possible within the banking system has not changed, and will also not change if you write a check to some else instead.

If the $900 begins as cash, depositing it into the banking system will increase the total lending ability wihtin the banking system, but the amount of increase will be the same, whoever makes the deposit.

[rerere]

Americans have already made their choice and they have chossen WAR.

No. SOME Americans have made that choice. In fact, not a majority, for if you equate Bush vote == Pro war vote, you have the under 18 who can't vote, the people who voted for someone else, and the people who did not vote who were over 18 who did not cast a vote for Bush.

Assuming Osama Bin Laden is alive (or enjoys CNN in the afterlife) must be very pleased with himself, as it looks like he's getting his wish about the US of A becomming a shadow of its former self.

The US of A has enjoyed the last 70+ years riding on cheap and abundant hydrocarbons - without that, the US of A will become a shadow of what the citizens know it as.

[rerere]

If the $900 is in your checking account, if you write a check, your account
is debited and the ultilties is credited. The lending possible within the banking system has not changed,

Actually, with the 'fractional reserve' system, that $900 can mean a $9000 loan can be made, but there are plenty of people who know far more about the fractional reserve system and how it works.

[FoxV]

You as a person might be Marginally better off but as a society it will not help

ya know, I think we have to give up on society as a whole and try to secure our positions for ourselves, our families, and our friends that will listen.

of the people I've talked to some say "The sky is not falling Mr Little", some say "don't worry we'll find a solution" and some say "damn, thats too bad, we're screwed" but not one of them has done any researh about PO for themselves. I suspect these responses are common and assume that pretty much the vast majority of the planet will have no idea what hit them.

So I think there is no poison to pick. Tyranny will reign, and conservation will become survival. In the end both will be shoved down our throats

[aahala]

rerere

You're right, changes in the amount of demand deposits can have a
misproportional change in lending, but writing and depositing checks doesn't change total demand deposits. Changes in the form of money - cash or DD, and banking regulations like the reserve requirement is what changes the total bank lending capacity.

[maverickdoc]

ya know, I think we have to give up on society as a whole and try to secure our positions for ourselves, our families, and our friends that will listen
of the people I've talked to some say "The sky is not falling Mr Little", some say "don't worry we'll find a solution" and some say "damn, thats too bad, we're screwed" but not one of them has done any researh about PO for themselves. I suspect these responses are common and assume that pretty much the vast majority of the planet will have no idea what hit them.
So I think there is no poison to pick. Tyranny will reign, and conservation will become survival. In the end both will be shoved down our throats

Just because you gave up on society, society has not given up on you.

Say you plan and execute flawlessly. You live like a pauper now and save and invest and build, and store. Your house is completely off the grid. You make your own energy (solar, bio diesel, geothermal…). You grow your own food. You store everything you and your family will need for the next 100 years, you even have gold and silver stockpiled. When things get really bad those same people how tell you “The sky is not falling Mr Little" will say "sorry you were right, now give me a place to stay (sheltered), give me food and money." Relative, friends, strangers, Govt.

Ever hear the story about the grasshopper and the ant? Only this time the grasshopper will beg, ask, and then take.

The govt. can pass a law and take your stuff (they did in the past), sure you can get a gun, or a tank. But you will run out of bullets, even if you had infinite supply of weapons, are you going to be able to defend your hard work 24/7/365 forever? How many people are you going to shoot? What if they gang up on you (They will have guns too)?

[fossil_fuel]

well, if we're gonna die, i can't think of a better way to do it than to go down protecting our homes and families.

[maverickdoc]

So we are giving up... no more ideas

[Kingcoal]

America is the best hope for a solution to peak oil. The world would do well to provide America with all it needs. Don't believe me? Just look at history. The "Green Revolution" was an American invention, which was exported all over the world. America believes in people, as many people as possible.

We just need a President that can inspire and lead.

[Jack]

America is the best hope for a solution to peak oil. The world would do well to provide America with all it needs. Don't believe me? Just look at history. The "Green Revolution" was an American invention, which was exported all over the world. America believes in people, as many people as possible.

We just need a President that can inspire and lead.

Yes, the green revolution was a spectacular success - it made it possible for population to increase from 2 billion to 6.5 billion. Then again...the green revolution led us to the problems we face today. Tough one to call, eh?

[maverickdoc]

America is the best hope for a solution to peak oil. The world would do well to provide America with all it needs. Don't believe me? Just look at history. The "Green Revolution" was an American invention, which was exported all over the world. America believes in people, as many people as possible.

We just need a President that can inspire and lead.

Yes, the green revolution was a spectacular success - it made it possible for population to increase from 2 billion to 6.5 billion. Then again...the green revolution led us to the problems we face today. Tough one to call, eh?

See the problem here jack? Every thing we think of as good (pop growth, econ growth, efficiency) is actually bad. From a PO, prospective of course.


Where is Monte I would like to know what his take is on this