I think this is a great thread. I propose an Import Land Model, where the world wakes up one day and realizes that the US is soaking up the lion's share of the worlds limited supply of oil, and using it on utterly stupid things like hummers, suvs and minivans. At that point the rest of the world refuses to give anymore of this irreplaceable stuff to US anymore.
At that point, right now the US is using up its own oil rapidly, further dooming itself in any such future.
Within a very few years, the US will either be using a small fraction of the oil it now uses, or it will be at war with basically the rest of the world to maintain its status as the world's greatest gas guzzler.