[MD]

I would never imply that this crowd could or would act like teenagers, of course.

[MD]

Getting back on topic:

It would take extraordinary effort and much suffering to achieve 95 million barrels per day, at this point.

We'd have to steer a significant portion of the current consumable energy stream back into new energy production in order for that to happen, which means quite a bit of other economic activity would have to stop.

Those that experience the stop will be unhappy. Sorry.

[startswithearthquakes]

Maybe it needs to happen that way. lazyness is a vast disease these days anyways.

[Twilight]

Yes, we could even subsidise liquid fuel production with other energy inputs and produce at a net energy loss if we were so inclined, if we were to decide the utility value of a liquid is sufficiently high to make it worthwhile. That would only mean diversion of resources and descent from a higher point in the long run.

[MD]

... if we were to decide the utility value of a liquid is sufficiently high to make it worthwhile...

That would be America's choice, but America is quickly losing the ability to enforce that option.

[deMolay]

Total The French Oil Company Lives Peak Oil:
I found this article interesting. Because Total is a major oil company and they believe in Peak Oil although they call it Plateau Oil. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090515.wcover0515/BNStory/energy/home

[zeke]

again with the theoretical, "provable" reserves which extend any problems FAR out into the future...most likely after these rich gits have had their fun, are dead and buried.

z

[VMarcHart]

Very interesting indeed.

I couldn't find any mentioning about demand or consumption. If "production" --I like when oil companies use the word production as if they do produce oil-- will plateau at 95, will demand continue to grow past 95?

I also wonder if the US will consume its 20-25% share of the added 10mbd.

[zeke]

that's just it. all discussion about the consumption side of the equation are deliberately and conveniently omitted from this entire discussion...

It's almost like gravity...you don't tell a story about going over to your friend's house, during which you were kept at the earth's surface by the force of gravity, which, by the way, is 9.8 newton-meters per second square.

You simply assume that there IS gravity.

cornies and oil companies take as given:

1. consumption will always increase, continuing beyond the end of time, and

2. consumption will dictate resource availability and extraction.


somewhere on the intertoobs is a black and white photo of a guy bent over with his head disappearing up his on oooh-hah...that image seems apropos of cornucopean "thought."

z

[VMarcHart]

...consumption will always increase, continuing beyond the end of time...

I don't understand "continuing beyond the end of time", but consumption follows physical goods; you can't consumme what doesn't exist. So if physical production falls, so will consumption.

Demand, on the other hand, is a different story.

[zeke]

I don't understand "continuing beyond the end of time", but consumption follows physical goods; you can't consumme what doesn't exist. So if physical production falls, so will consumption.

it was a sarcastic exaggeration intended to poke fun at cornucopeans.


z

[VMarcHart]

I don't understand "continuing beyond the end of time", but consumption follows physical goods; you can't consumme what doesn't exist. So if physical production falls, so will consumption.

it was a sarcastic exaggeration intended to poke fun at cornucopeans.z

I'm slower than usual.

[Ayoob]

Total, the fourth largest oil company in the world, is betting that peak oil will occur in 2020 at a production level of 95 million barrels per day (bpd) -- our present consumption is about 85 million bpd.

According to Total's "95 theory", falling output from old wells and scarce new ones mean we will not be able exceed this "plateau" of production regardless of effort. We are already having to find 4 million bpd just to compensate for depleted wells. By Total's calculations, we have 33 years of oil left, with an additional 17 years of supply that might be available with advanced recovery methods. The ramifications are sobering. But even more sobering if we consider that conventional economic predictions expect us to be needing 130 million bpd by 2020.

http://www.canada.com/Peak+Good+Things+ ... story.html

Never heard of the Total 95 deal before.

[Plantagenet]

Someone should point out to the French geniuses at Total that world oil production is already on a plateau at current levels since about 2005.

[Schmuto]

Jesus.

Is everybody drinking the KoolAid?

EVEN IF peak was in 2020, we STILL should be in complete preparation mode as a world NOW.

We are not going to get off our collective butts until we get kicked off the couch, dragged out into the yard, and whipped with a hose.

[kiwichick]

we don't burn 85 mbpd of oil

conventional crude oil has never hit 75

[Starvid]

we don't burn 85 mbpd of oil

conventional crude oil has never hit 75

Which doesn't matter at all because of the condensates et cetera.

Anyway, the "Total 95" view is pretty close to my own. I'm a bit more pessimistic, but with the huge uncertainties we have to deal with, the difference can't be said to be enormous. I think "Total 95" should be seen as the "best case" scenario. A possible scenario, but not the only possible one.

[dorlomin]

link

UK powerstation and refinary workers begin solidarity action as the long running dispute over work and conditions including foreign workers in Lincolnshire boils to a head.

Seems a show down is inevitable.

[wisconsin_cur]

I was just going to post the same story

Wildcat strikes had already spread to several power stations and other terminals in the past few days as thousands of workers took sympathy action.

There were reports that contract workers at the Staythorpe power station in Nottinghamshire and Ferrybridge power station in Yorkshire walked out early on Friday after hearing the news.

One of the sacked Lindsey workers said: "We are asking for support from workers across the country which I am sure will be given. Total will soon realise they have unleashed a monster.

"It is disgraceful that this has happened without any consultation.

"If they get away with this the rest of the industry will crumble and it will be like a turkey cull. Workers will be decimated and unskilled employees from abroad will be brought in on the cheap, treated like scum and sent back after the job is done.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5575896/Total-shutdown-threat-as-oil-refinery-strikes-spread.html

[dorlomin]

This does seem to be line in the sand time for many of the UKs energy workers. They are one of the last industries we have here. Politicaly the Labour Prime Minister has already come out condeming the strike action. I feel that is a political mistake but the numpty we have in no 10 is incapable of eating breakfast without making political mistakes.

The issue could attract alot of sympathy in the UK. Fear over jobs and being undercut by EU compitition is very much 'of the time'. If a boycott of TOTAL gains momentum my guess is they will have to back down.